Why quota in promotions is wrong….

Parliament is today expected to take up and pass the 117^th Constitution Amendment bill providing for quotas in promotions for SCs/STs in government jobs. I must state upfront that I am generally a supporter of Affirmative Action (AA). AA is required in a country like India because a large part of our population was historically ostracized for no fault of theirs except that they belonged to certain “lower” castes. Most people who read this post might feel otherwise; they may feel quotas are wrong in all forms. In my opinion, there are good quotas and bad quotas. Quotas at entry level in education and employment are good but quotas in promotions are bad.

For those who don’t believe in quotas at all, let me point out that quotas are not only an Indian reality. There is international support for AA. The International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination stipulates that AA programs may be required in countries in order to rectify systematic discrimination. Caste ostracization is an example of systematic discrimination. However there are caveats that exist. Such programs “shall in no case lead to maintenance of unequal or separate rights for different racial groups after the objectives have been achieved”. The key issue is one of timing. The UN Human Rights committee adds to this: “such actions may involve granting for a time certain preferential treatment”.

The problem in India comes not from AA itself, but from the politics that follows. Parliament has often frustrated the original intent of the Constitution by enacting amendments which make a mockery of AA. From an earlier post of mine: “The Constitution identified several SCs and STs and gave them 15% and 7.5% reservation in government and PSU jobs and in government aided education institutions. But then came the Mandal Commission of 1980 – and the VP Singh government in 1990 extended the reservation benefits to OBCs taking the total quota of reservations up to 49.5%. While the Constitution never provided for it, the 77^th Amendment to the Constitution in 1995 permitted reservations in promotions also. When in 2005, the SC delivered a 7-judge unanimous order that the State cannot impose its reservation policy on private colleges, Parliament enacted the 93^rd amendment which specifically provided reservations in private educational institutes. When in 2008, the SC stated that the “creamy layer” should be excluded from the quota, the political class hemmed and hawed. Though the SC has mandated a 50% cap on reservations, states like TN allow 69% reservation. Though the original Constitution only allowed for a 5-year time bound reservations policy, the timeline has been routinely extended by all the governments.

Those who have been dealt a bad hand by history need our protection and generosity in the present so that their future can be made better. But quotas have to be balanced against merit. AA policies are good at entry levels in education which prepare the underprivileged to take advantage of opportunities in the country. Likewise quotas in jobs at entry level can also be justified.

But when quotas start intruding into territories where merit alone should matter, a problem starts to develop. Work efficiency gets sacrificed as quality suffers. In a competitive world, the country starts to lag behind others in its league. One of the reasons why every government department in India underperforms is because there are too many people who have entered without having even basic skill sets. Besides if quotas are provided in promotions, there may be a day when a demand is made that the CEO’s job or the Cabinet Secretary’s should also be reserved. Or that reservations must extend to the Board of Directors. I do understand that if reservations are not provided, the underprivileged may never be able make it to the upper echelons. But can we take this a step at a time, rather than a huge leap at the very beginning? Can we first ensure that all the underprivileged get basic education? And at least some jobs in their hands. Later, as they catch up with their forward caste brethren, they can move into the senior positions?

In their zeal to gather votes, most political parties find it difficult not to support such policies. This time around also, all parties except the SP and the Shiv Sena have supported the quotas bill. The BJP is doing the right thing that at least Article 335 of the Constitution – which provides for administrative efficiency – is not deleted. The SP’s position is little to do with promoting merit; it has everything to do with protecting its core voter base which does not include the sections that supports Mayawati.

Net net, my view is that quotas should not be provided in areas that require pure merit. That is why I oppose quotas in medical and engineering colleges. I also oppose quotas in promotions. We often forget that there is a flip side to quotas just like there is to everything else. If we don’t give primacy to merit we will progress slowly and the benefits that should seep through to the lower sections won’t materialize. We will actually end up harming their interests. The Government itself now realizes this. That to fulfil its social objectives, it needs to continue the pace of growth. If that slackens, all social programs come to a screeching halt.

One last point. Even if reservations are provided in promotions, how can the % be the same as at lower levels? Unfortunately, the proposal is to make the same 22.5% reservations applicable to promotions as well. One day, this will be raised to 49.5%. If  reservations have to be provided at higher levels, the % should be low and keep coming down. Maybe less than 10% reservations may still be acceptable, but 22.5% is not.

The real truth is that AA policies are required, but must be restricted to entry levels. Besides, they should be time bound and reduce over time. They should never enter areas where merit is the only consideration. They cannot cover promotions. Period.

The big difference between the Godhra and anti-Sikh riots….

It’s become the commonest defence the BJP puts up when it is attacked on its role in the 2002 Godhra riots. That the  Congress is no different and is guilty of an even bigger carnage during the anti-Sikh riots in 1984; hence it has no rights to point fingers at it. No Congress spokesperson has been able to hold his head up and point out the difference. However there is a big difference. The difference is not in the scale of the two incidents (both were similar), but in the way the two parties have responded politically post the events.

Without doubt, both pogroms were reprehensible. Any organized activity of powerful political groupings using the state’s powerful machineries against common people has to be so. Both the parties are guilty of genocide. Both the parties have tried to shield the main accused. The Congress has succeeded in doing so, only because the incident happened a long time back when media wasn’t so powerful and wasn’t able to exert as much pressure on the government as it can now. Also, without the internet, it was difficult to mobilize public opinion as powerfully as it is today. But since 2002, thanks to the massive growth of the media sector, the Gujarat government’s role in the Godhra matter was never allowed to be buried. The pressure from the media made it impossible for the authorities to sit still and do nothing. And once the judiciary became active, it was impossible for the state and the cops to get away with (literally) murder.

However post the incidents, both political parties have responded very differently. The Congress has tried to make amends (this post point out how); as a result, the Sikhs have largely forgiven the Congress. But the BJP has made no amends at all. In fact, it has gone the opposite way and made Godhra the centerpiece of its political strategy in Gujarat and elsewhere. Modi’s innings as Gujarat CM began with Godhra. There is no question of him abandoning Godhra. Or apologizing for it. Maybe when he moves to the national stage he will do so. For now, he is happy to enjoy the love and affection his fellow Gujaratis have showered over him for.

How has the response to the two parties been different? The Congress apologized to the Sikhs. In public and in action. Sonia Gandhi made Manmohan Singh the PM even though no one would have given him that chance. The Sikhs felt assuaged. It was the Congress’s way of apologizing; by handing over the most powerful position in the country to a Sikh. Of course, there were political reasons that Sonia had for doing so; but she grabbed the chance. Of course, Manmohan Singh’s brilliant record as a bureaucrat; his courageous reforms under Narasimha Rao; his intellectual prowess; and his apolitical nature all made him the “natural” choice. In making Manmohan Singh the PM, Sonia hit two birds with one stone. Not only did she give the nation an able PM, she also offered an olive branch to the Sikh community.

The Sikhs forgave the Congress, though they never forgot the carnage itself. Since 1984, the Sikhs in Punjab voted the Congress to power twice for a total of 10 years; the SAD – the party of the Sikhs – managed only slightly better at thrice for 12 years (before the current tenure started). The loss of the Congress in the recent polls in the state was considered an unexpected shock; and was attributed to factors not related to the 1984 events.

In contrast, the BJP made no amends. The party retained it’s hardline Hindutva imagery. Neither the party nor the CM of Gujarat has ever apologized to the Muslim community. The BJP abused its power over the Gujarat police while probing the Godhra riots (after having severely abused it during the riots); as well as over the state judiciary which had become completely saffronized. Things became so bad that investigative functions had to be handed over to an SIT; and Godhra hearings moved outside the state. The state continued its perseculation of Muslims. One after another fake encounters took place in the state. The state government refused to pony up monies for the restoration of mosques destroyed during the riots. When the BJP’s Minister of Home during the riots Haren Pandya was murdered, the state made attempts (and succeeded initially) to put the blame on innocent muslims from Hyderabad. All this indicates that the BJP is not contrite. If anything, it wears Godhra on its sleeve – preserving its image of being as much anti-Muslim as it is pro-Hindu. That stance has polarized the country completely. It has helped it win power repeatedly in Gujarat (and MP). But it has caused it to lose power everywhere else in the country.

In the Center, the BJP was booted out in 2004 immediatley after Godhra. In UP – where it all started with the demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992 – the party has never wielded power since the Babri days; Godhra couldn’t help it revive the Babri frenzy. In Maharashtra, where the equally saffron Shiv Sena is its ally, the alliance has ruled only once for 5 years since 1995; and never after Godhra. In Bihar, its ally is extremely wary of saffron politics.

The BJP of course says it is has been fair to the Muslims. It uses the fact that it made APJ Abdul Kalam the President to prove this. That was a good thing to do; but it looks like an exception that has never been repeated. Can we ever imagine the BJP making a Muslim its party President, forget the PM of the country? Never. In fact, the BJP projects Modi as its future PM candidate. And Modi hasn’t even given a single seat in the state elections to Muslim candidates. He hasn’t done it ever and he is not going to do it in the future. At the national level, how many Muslim faces does one see in the BJP? Except for a few “show pieces”, none. Forget the Muslims. How many Christian faces are there in the party? None. The BJP is proud of its staunch Hindu character. Even in that domain, it remains exclusivisit and strongly Brahminical. The BJP’s inherent nature is to polarize. It polarized the country on the Hindu-Muslim axis. It polarized the Hindus on the Brahmin-others axis.

In the end, the Congress apologized to the Sikhs, gave power to them, made a Sikh the PM, and has included Sikhs in the party’s power structure. The BJP has never apologized to the Muslims and Christians (remember how Dara Singh – a Bajrang Dal member – murdered Christian missionary Graham Staines in Orissa in 1999?); never given them power; obviously never made a Muslim or Christian the PM or even party President; and rather than including them in its party, has intentionally alienated them further. This is the difference that must be remembered. There may be similarities in the mistake committed initially; but the corrective actions taken thereafter are totally divergent.

The real truth is that the Congress remains culturally, religiously and socially heterogeneous; the BJP a Brahminical monolith. The Congress’s heterogeneity forced it to apologize to the Sikhs; the BJP’s homogeneity compels it not to do so to the Muslims. The two parties are incomparable; the two incidents likewise.

Amazing….former CBI Director Mishra’s accusation of Congress pressure ….

Former CBI Director US Mishra (2003-2005) mentioned to Times Now that he faced political pressure from a UPA-1 minister (who he hasn’t named) on Mayawati’s Disproportionate Assets (DA) case back then. The timing of his chat is what makes Mishra’s accusation amazing. Coming just a few days after the most recently retired CBI Director AP Singh said that he never faced any political pressure over Mayawati from the UPA government, Mishra’s statement appears timed to almost look like a political repartee of sorts. More than proving that the CBI was indeed abused by the Congress, it only shows how politicized the CBI has become. How, whoever is in power – not just the Congress – abuses it.

A few paragraphs from the Business Standard dated Dec 2, 2003 (readily available when you search for US Mishra) will prove this. It will also prove how wrong Ravi Shankar Prasad was yesterday when he claimed that the BJP did not use CBI to scuttle the Babri Masjid case.

“That the ACC (Appointments Committee of the Cabinet) chaired by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee chose Mishra as the next CBI chief assumes significance in view of the fact that the premier investigative agency has been handling many politically sensitive cases.” What politically sensitive cases are we talking about here? “The most significant case being handled by the CBI is related to the demolition of the Babri mosque in which the CBI dropped the charges of conspiracy against all senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders including Deputy Prime Minister LK Advani, Human Resources Development Minister Murli Manohar Joshi and Uma Bharti.” So there goes Ravi Shankar Prasad’s claim that he made yesterday: “Let me clarify one thing. The integrity of BJP cannot be questioned because if we were controlling the CBI, we would have settled the Ayodhya's Ram temple dispute among ourselves". Well, you did try your best Mr Prasad!

What other cases was the BJP using the CBI to scuttle? “Similarly, the CBI is also assigned the job of conducting probe into the bribery case involving Dilip Singh Judeo and the Rs 30,000 crore stamp paper scam.” Just as a reminder, Dilip Singh Judeo was a minister in the Vajpayee government who was caught “on tape” accepting bribes from an Australian company in exchange for mining rights in Chhatisgarh (source: Wiki). The article gives specifics of the charge against the NDA government “More recently, a CBI official handling the Judeo case was transferred at a time when there was a pressure on the agency to summon Judeo and record his statement.” And of course everyone knows the infamous Telgi case.

Now here’s where the rub is. US Mishra was appointed CBI Director by his predecessor PC Sharma who retired on Dec 6, 2003. “His name was believed to be recommended by the outgoing CBI chief who has been accused of using the investigative agency for the benefit of the ruling party by the Opposition leaders.” Yes, appointed by the same PC Sharma who kowtowed to the BJP. Now is there any doubt in anyone’s minds why US Mishra was appointed the CBI Director back then in 2003? Clearly he was the BJP’s hand maiden. His outburst now is nothing but a way of paying back for the gratitudes extended to him then.

Incidentally, for all the furious complaints the BJP made recently when the Congress’s “hurriedly” appointed Ranjit Sinha as the new CBI Director, here’s what the Business Standard article said: “Just before the Assembly elections, the Congress had accused the government of using the CBI to bro-beat the Opposition particularly in connection with the Judeo case. In this backdrop where the agency’s role in investigating the high-profile cases has come under cloud, the government appears to have gone ahead with the process of appointment in a hurried manner.” The glorious smell of déjà vu which the BJP would love to forget!

For all the preaching that the NDA does nowadays calling the CBI the Congress Bureau of Investigations, it would help it if it just read some of the accusations made against itself when it was ruling!

To end this piece, three small points. One is that the CBI is a government department and is surely under its political influence, whether it is a BJP government or Congress. Hence the BJP cannot claim any high ground on this subject. Second, all CBI Directors are political appointees. The statement of US Mishra is thus unreliable. Third, all political parties count on the public’s (and media’s) short memory. Poor Sushil Kumar Shinde got into trouble for bringing this up recently in the context of the alleged coal scam, but the extracts from the Dec 2003 Business Standard article clearly show how everyone – most of all the BJP – has forgotten what happened when the BJP was ruling!

The real truth is that every government institution in the country has become politicized. If the Congress is guilty of it, so is the BJP. In that respect, the CBI is best described as Corrupt Bureau of Investigation….rather than the Congress Bureau. The solution however is not in making the CBI independent as demanded by Anna and others – at this rate, all government departments will become independent and the government itself will become a mere “paper government”. The solution is to remove corruption and bring accountability within the CBI – the same way that we must in all government institutions. Not via the Lokpal which is a flawed concept. But by addressing the real issues that cause corruption. More on that in some other piece!

Happy days are here again!! Thumbs up, Thumbs up!

Finally some good news. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by some 8% in October, though this was on a low base last year (negative 5%). When the economy is going down, such a strong reversal is not the “expected”, but a significant indicator of a turn-around. Except for mining, which is embroiled in serious political-legal issues, both other components of the IIP – electricity and manufacturing – grew handsomely. Most economists are now saying that the growth may have “bottomed out”; meaning a turn-around is imminent.

Further, the government itself has gone into an overdrive. Starting mid-Sept, there has been a spurt in the government’s decision making. There has also been a huge spurt in the government’s ability to “manage” the political process; be it schmoozing with the two UP rivals who support it externally, or snubbing and defeating political maneuvers of the opposition, including the ever-opposing BJP. By finally cocking a snook at the TMC, and almost forcing it out of the coalition, the UPA finally showed it had its mojo back. It’s not surprising then that the government’s riding a new high. The confidence in the economy is returning. The ratings agencies are responding with a thumbs up. Moody’s has already indicated its approval; S&P may take a little while, but surely it cannot ignore the progress being made.

Parliament has also started functioning (finally), and hopefully the “marshal law” strongly supported by me a couple of days back (Dec 12^th: Disrupting Parliament must be made a criminal offence….) will prevent its disruption again in the future. Lined up now are several critical finance bills, passage of which will provide another boost to the economy. The stock market has responded positively to all this by scaling the 19K mark and appearing set to go much beyond. If the Congress can continue playing the SP-BSP game well, I won’t be surprised if the BSE sensex crosses its previous high of 21K before elections in 2014. This could indeed be the most productive period of UPA-2!

What is special now is the kind of support the government is getting in media and with the intellectuals for finally kicking some ass. In India, no one wants to understand the ruling party’s peculiar problems. If it has no majority of its own, it is expected to sew it up (somehow). And while the process of sewing it will itself be criticized, not doing so and causing a policy paralysis will be criticized even more! The cash-for-votes scam is bad, but it is fully redeemed and more by the passage of the Indo-US nuclear deal. Governments are expected to do what it takes; like someone said to me yesterday “a little grease is required to make the machine work! Finally the Congress seems to have figured that out.

If this continues into the next financial year, India will rebound strongly. The newly formed Cabinet Committee on Investments (CCI) should force the Environment ministry into faster approvals and an industry-friendly attitude. If industry complains so much, there has to be an element of truth there. Why is it that it’s only in India that the Environment Ministry has become such a hurdle? There are no such problems in China. All of us like to applaud China, but then when it comes to being pragmatic on environment, our activists start shouting hoarse? India has to balance its interests – and “scheduling” when it will priroritoize environment over development and when it won’t is something we should decide for ourselves; not be driven by over-enthusiastic and often self-serving activists. Without development, a victory on the environment front would be a pyrrhic victory. Both have to go hand in hand. The CCI should now rein in the activist-minister.

Chidambaram appears to have made a huge difference to the government’s working. He has brought in fresh energy; and has managed the political process well. Just imagine – just a few months back, the BJP would not allow him to speak in Parliament! By pressing the right levers, Chidambaram has managed to provide the boost required to push ahead. Hopefully, he will manage to get the RBI to play its role too. Should that happen, there’s no stopping us. We will be back in full swing soon.

In the meantime, bets are being placed on which state will welcome the first Walmart into the country. My money is on Gujarat – especially if Modi wins! If Modi wants the country to focus on his economic growth credentials, he will want to hold this important trophy in his hands; the BJP’s central party can take a walk!

In the meanwhile, there is now a complete divide in the activist’s camp. There is an open war between Anna and Kejriwal. It’s amusing to see Anna accusing Kejriwal of chasing power! Just a few months back, the two were together chiding the existing politicians of that! Kejriwal has – as expected – lost his sting. How much venom-spewing can the usually-happy Indian handle? Enough is enough.

The real truth is that the days of negativity appear to be fading. I am reminded of the iconic Thum’s Up’s slogan: Happy days are here again! Why, even the Indian cricket team is performing better in the 4^th test! Things are indeed looking up!

Disrupting Parliament must be made a criminal offence….

The most pressing need before the country is to ensure that Parliament be allowed to function without any disruptions. The most common sight these days is of Parliament being adjourned either for a few hours or the entire day or for a few days or indeed for the entire session. Letting Parliament function is the responsibility that comes with all the rights that our MPs enjoy. Disrupting Parliament should be treated like a criminal offence.

The murder of democracy is now taking place with increasing regularity. Its not being done by just one or two parties; all of them stand a ccused. Murdering democracy does not even take too many members. Even a handful are sufficient. If in the last few years, the BJP has perfected the art of hijacking Parliament, the same has been learnt by several regional parties like the SP and BSP as well. Essentially, the approach of these parties is that if something is not done as per their liking, they will disallow the House from functioning. The rest can do nothing even if they want to continue working. Basically, the whole House (and indeed the country itself) is taken hostage by these hoodlums. Its important we remove this scourge or we will find ourselves in a situation where the frustrated and angry people of the country throw out democracy itself.

The presiding officers of the two Houses should not only have the powers to control the proceedings (which they have), but should be obligated by law to exercise them. In that regard, I would like to express support to the Chairman of the Rajya Sabha, and the current Vice President of India, who raised pointed questions after his House was disrupted yesterday. Why the Speaker of the Lok Sabha doesn’t use her powers is something she should explain. Why are marshals not deployed against members who disrupt the houses?

It was in Nov 2011 that Digvijay Singh of the Congress had tweeted: Another day wasted in Parliament. It hasn't used Institution of Marshals in Parliament since 2004 to make it function. High time they did!” Unfortunately, the response of the main opposition party was anything but reassuring. The Indian Express reported: Reacting sharply to it, BJP spokesperson Prakash Javdekar said, “We strongly condemn the statement of Digivijay Singh. This is highly undemocratic”. Somebody should ask the BJP what is undemocratic about letting Parliament function. If this is their understanding of democracy, then not even god can save them.

If we just agree that the House can never be dismissed, a few simple rules immediately follow:

1.         Raising your voice, debating fiercely, heckling the other speakers…..is all fine but within limits set by the presiding officer of the house. Once the presiding officer says “Enough”, all members are duty bound to stop. The ones who don’t should be branded criminals and evicted. A mandatory penalty should be imposed on them. The penalty should be both financial (which they wont care about) and otherwise – basically a suspension for a certain number of days. Even if the strength of the House is reduced by the hundreds, the House should continue to run. MPs obviously are free to take their protests to the streets and to media.

2.         Presiding officers of the two houses should be mandated to use marshals and exercise force when it becomes necessary.

3.         Criminal litigation must automatically commence against any member who disrupts the working. This should be mandatory with no discretion being permitted. Since the two Houses are under constant TV coverage, there should be no difficulty in establishing culpability.

4.         If an affected party or an aggrieved member appeals against the decision of the Speaker or Chairman to expel him, he can approach the SC. The SC must dispose off the complaint within a fixed timeline.

5.         Repeated offences must lead to disqualification of the member for the entire period of the House. Repeat offenders should be disallowed from contesting elections for ten years. We know just how much our MPs would hate this.

6.         When the House functions without several MPs or parties present, the passage of bills will become smoother. Obviously, the ruling party will get an edge. This will make the opposition wary of disrupting the Houses since it will lead to the passage of bills that they could otherwise have objected to. The rule of “majority of members present and voting” should be continued.

These rules may appear like they are too tough. Or like they are squashing the right to protest. Well, that’s the exact idea. Even in a democracy, there are times when a heavy hand needs to be used. By keeping the judiciary separate from the politicians, the Constitution permitted such a heavy hand. Imagine if the judiciary were to be held hostage by our MPs and stopped from functioning? Likewise, the Executive is given a separate and distinct role, so that nothing stops it from functioning. In the same manner, it is important that the ultimate symbol of our democracy, Parliament itself, is protected and ring-fenced against deviant members. Making the Parliamentary process a little dictatorial will not harm our democracy, but actually make it stronger.

The real truth is that our Parliamentarians need to be disciplined. Just look at where we stand today. It’s almost predictable that a session will not be allowed to function for 50-100% of the time. Given the declining standards of our Parliamentarians (cutting across party lines), we need to take new measures to restrain our MPs and to remind them that their job is to serve the people. Not disrupt the House….

Lobbying is not the same as corruption!

An unnecessary controversy has broken around Walmart’s lobbying spends, some of which were directed towards securing FDI in multi-brand retail in India. As usual, our opposition has spun the meaning of lobbying to mean corruption. The same way it did a no-auctions coal policy to mean corruption. The truth as usual hardly seems to matter!

Lobbying is definied by Wikipedia as follows: Lobbying (also lobby) is the act of attempting to influence decisions made by officials in the government, most often legislators or members of regulatory agencies. Lobbying is done by many different types of people and organized groups, including individuals in the private sector, corporations, fellow legislators or government officials, or advocacy groups (interest groups). In a democratic set-up when public officials are expected to listen to different viewpoints, lobbying provides one of the ways of delivering them to legislators and regulators. In Hindi, the best description is “Prachar karna” (to publicize one’s position). It is an entirely virtuous democratic process. In the UK, again as per Wikipedia: The House of Commons Public Administration Select Committee argued that while there are shortcomings in the regulation of the lobbying industry in the United Kingdom, "The practice of lobbying in order to influence political decisions is a legitimate and necessary part of the democratic process. Individuals and organizations reasonably want to influence decisions that may affect them, those around them, and their environment. Government in turn needs access to the knowledge and views that lobbying can bring."

As per Wiki, in the EU currently, around 15,000 Brussels-based lobbyists (consultants, lawyers, associations, corporations, NGOs etc.) seek to influence the EU’s legislative process. Some 2,600 special interest groups have a permanent office in Brussels. Their distribution is roughly as follows: European trade federations (32%), consultants (20%), companies (13%), NGOs (11%), national associations (10%), regional representations (6%), international organizations (5%) and think tanks (1%). So lobbying isn’t a crime by any yardstick. Nor is it tantamount to corruption. In India, the first charge we make against any public official is one of corruption. That explains why this rather innocuous declaration of Walmart has created such a furore in India.

All businesses lobby with the government. They lobbied when the NDA was ruling; they continue to lobby today when the UPA is ruling. Not only businesses, diverse interest groups lobby to get their point of view across. Some of the biggest lobbyists are NGOs who petition public representatives and push their point of view. All the work that Aruna Roy and others did to have the RTI enacted would qualify as lobbying. Just like Walmart (and others) lobbied the UPA MPs for allowing FDI in retail, they must have lobbied the opposition MPs as well. Lobbying is apolitical. Lobbyists talk to everyone. Further, there must have been several anti-FDI lobbyists as well. So to make this look like the UPA ministers and MPs have been corrupted is silly and idiotic.

There is of course, as usual, no evidence that points towards corruption. So our expert opposition politicians start “connecting the dots” (that remarkable style developed to a perfection by Indian opposition leaders!) to hint that “something must be wrong”! And in a magical way, the onus of proving anything is suddenly removed! The latest strategy to press home their charge is “Let the government order a probe”. At this rate, we will soon have a special ministry dedicated to probes! In any civilized society, the one accusing would be made to give some “preliminary” information basis which someone would decide if a probe needs to be ordered or not. Out here, the only preliminary information is the officially declared and publicly available declaration by Walmart to the US Senate. Walmart has denied that there were any bribes paid in its lobbying effort. The US law specifically debars bribing. And yet, our opposition leaders – in search of something to pin a resurgent government back – would like a probe to be ordered.

But then for the opposition in general, and the Left and BJP in particular, this has been a season of setbacks. Not only have their attempts at blocking FDI in retail failed, their attitude towards Parliament has been questioned by media and others. In the case of the BJP, there has been acute embarrassment in the form of charges against Gadkari, as well as the demand by Yeddy to dissolve the Karnataka assembly. The 2G “scam” has been proved to be anything but, and even the coal issue is going nowhere – with the government handling the issues in a mature, sensible manner. Politically, the BJP is feeling isolated – with both Mamata and Mayawati directly accusing BJP of being an unreliable partner. Worse, it is finding itself in the company of the Left, which itself must be feeling worried about the fallouts of this sudden friendship! A bitter and cussed BJP wants to whip up some scammy froth in the hope that some of it may splash and stick to the Congress.

The real truth is that as the relationship between the Congress and the BJP worsens, more and more such issues will be tossed in the air in the hope that some of them may yield political dividends. In any case, the public at large thinks all politicians are corrupt; so there is a chance such issues will stick. It’s only in India that every political party accuses every other party of being corrupt! Specific to this Walmart lobbying issue, it’s a legal business process followed in accordance with the US law. It is nothing more, nothing less.

No riots, no curfew in Gujarat???

Narendra Modi recently said that in the last ten years there had been no riots in Gujarat and there had also been no “curfew like” situation either. I would agree with the first contention (though with several caveats!), while I would totally disagree with the second.

Coming to the second one first, the fact is that there is a very sinister curfew imposed on anyone who speaks anything against Modi or the Gujarat government. It doesn’t have to be an attack; it may be a mere criticism of something that is considered close to Modi. For eg., someone pointing out the flaws of the BRTS (Bus Rapid Transit System) in Ahmedabad could be “muted” quickly because that would be considered criticizing a special Modi project. It doesn’t matter that the BRTS has been funded by the Central government. And it doesn’t matter either what the criticism is. It may well be a suggestion for further improvement of a scheme that has admittedly been run quite professionally. How is the person who criticizes muted? Quite simply, the person is gheraod (on phone, online and on media as well) and pressurized into giving up the criticism. Usually, this happens in the online world, where everything written about or against Modi is monitored and responded to with a heavy hand. Suddenly a thousand “dislikes” pop up against a story that criticizes. Suddenly a hundred nasty comments are posted by “independent” citizens of Gujarat who are actually ghostwriters for Modi.

Take the first claim now. Yes, there have indeed been no riots in Gujarat since Modi has taken over. But that precisely proves the point that the minorities have been totally “subdued” under Modi. The Godhra violence and the continued attacks on Muslims in general (remember the fake encounter cases?) have put the community into a complete fear psychosis. Besides, how can there be any riots when the ones who conduct the riots are now the rulers themselves? For anyone who lives in Ahmedabad knows what I am saying. It is widely agreed that the 2002 Godhra riots were “allowed” if not downright “orchestrated” by the Gujarat police, under instructions from the political higher-ups. And anyone who has dared to speak about this has been effectively arm twisted. Whether it is Sanjiv Bhatt or RB Sreekumar. Or Haren Pandya.

The theory goes that Haren Pandya was gunned down because he had started squealing about Modi’s involvement in the Godhra riots. Modi’s involvement was never established, but what points to a possible link is that Pandya had started to squeal on Modi’s sinister handling of the post-Godhra riots and had secretly deposed before the Citizen’s Tribunal comprising several eminent judges. As per a Hindustan Times story of May 11^th 2012, “One of the judges on the citizens’ tribunal, justice Hospet Suresh, told Hindustan Times Pandya had alleged that Modi asked the police not to take action against the rioters. Modi allegedly gave the instruction during a meeting with top police and government officials on February 27, 2002, the day the riots started after the burning of a train coach near Godhra station.” But then this is a typical response once can expect in Gujarat. Speak against Modi and face the consequences.

The claim about not having had riots is something akin to the Iranians saying that they have had no terrorist attacks in Tehran! Or the Afghanis saying the same thing before the US invasion into their country! That may be a fact, but it doesn’t prove it’s a safe, liberal place!

The fear of attacking Modi is such that it even keeps away usually aggro civil society activists like Anna and Kejriwal. Notwithstanding the fact that Modi did not appoint a Lok Ayukta in his state for more than 8-9 years, there was only very muted criticism from Anna. And though Kejriwal has now made some accusations (inane as usual!) against Modi, there is no way that it will get enough push from him. Kejriwal’s style is somewhat similar to Modi’s – which in turn is similar to George Bush’s especially after Sept 11, when he famously stated that “you are either with us or against us”.

The media is part of the conspiracy theory. By schmoozing media and threatening it in turns, even the media has been substantially muted. An aggressive PR machinery run and operated by Americans (check out ET of yesterday’s) works overtime to ensure that every criticism of Modi is rebutted. A rumor has it that “many crores” are spent every month on just “managing” the internet. This much I can say from personal experience. Write against Modi and face the wrath of the online audiences! Genuine or fake, one can only guess. As per the TOI “According to an internet tool, Status People, launched by a group of engineers in London, Modi's account has 46 per cent fake and 41 per cent inactive users”. I suspect the fake users are the ones who impose the online curfew. This extensive PR machinery is responsible for projecting tall claims made by Modi which are often not true. A joke doing the rounds is that Modi is claiming success for having launched the IPL. That it was Lalit Modi is a matter of detail!

To be fair, Modi is tough not only to the outside world but to his own BJP and RSS as well. Ask Haren Pandya’s wife what she thinks of Modi. Ask Sanjay Joshi who was thrown out of the BJP specifically because of his issues with Modi. Ask LK Advani who wasn’t allowed to start off his india-wide rathyatra from Gujarat (now that he is seen as a competitor of Modi for the PM’s post). Or ask Nitin Gadkari who faces grave charges of corruption, rumored to have been orchestrated by Modi for being a secret challenger to him.

The real truth is that when Modi says there is no curfew in Gujarat, he is only talking of the physical form. In the virtual world, or when it comes to those who oppose him, there is a virtual curfew all the time. Modi is bound to win the Gujarat elections, and my compliments to him for that. But he cannot get away by making such pompous statements.