tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16677150993317572572024-03-08T11:00:08.603-08:00The real truthPrashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.comBlogger826125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-19521071427374768282014-03-11T22:07:00.001-07:002014-03-11T22:07:57.472-07:002G, Coal corruption charges crumbling....<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The newspapers dont always
highlight these developments. Hence it becomes important to write about them in
a blog like this. For those who care for the truth, the message is that
corruption allegations in 2G and Coal were mostly bogus. Those exaggerated
claims made by the CAG - Rs 1.76 lac crores for 2G and Rs 1.86 lac crores for
coal - were just figments of it's imagination.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Take 2G. The CAG concocted the
concept of "notional loss to the exchequer" and put a value of Rs
1.76 lac crores to the 2G spectrum sale undertaken in 2008 by Raja. The BJP
then spun this number into a "mota maal" theory of corruption.
Illiterate, but politically savvy, activists of Anna's team then mounted a
series of fasts and rallies and put the tag of "the most corrupt
government" on the UPA. All of these were supported by a sensation seeking
media, which failed miserably in sifting the grain from the chaff. Ordinary
citizens, who rely entirely on media for information, were brainwashed into
believing all. Collectively, the pillars of our democracy, conspired to taint a
ruling government with drummed up charges. Its a different issue that the
government was incapable of defending itself, a fact which cost it its
credibility.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Someone has to stand for the
truth. And this blog aims to do just that. So let's look at 2G and Coal and see
where the matters stand.</div>
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<br /></div>
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In 2G, the government "preferred"
to give spectrum cheap to telecom operators in 2008. It <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">preferred</i> to lose revenues, so that consumers - especially the
poorest of the poor who had not till then benefitted from the telecom
revolution - could get services cheap. In order to ensure this, it encouraged
massive competition....as many as 12 per circle. And exactly as planed, Indian
tariffs plummetted and became the lowest in the world, with talk rates as low
as half paise per minute. This led to a huge increase in teledensity, with 900+
million Indians embracing this life-changing technology. Did the government
lose revenues? Of course it did. Was this the first time the government was
losing revenues to benefit the public? Not at all. The government's fuel
subsidy (or any subsidy for that matter) is exactly the same. It loses more
than Rs 1 lac crore a year so that consumers pay less. This is not corruption. The
true test of corruption is to check the profitability of companies and see if
they are making "windfall" profits. The fact is that the number 2
operator, Vodafone, broke even after being in India for 15 years. Reliance, the
no 4 operator is still struggling. And the leader Airtel last reported some 30%
type EBITDA margins for its India ops - not a great number considering the huge
debt pile on its books. If the corporates were not making profits, the
consumers must have been. And that's why this decision of cheap spectrum was a
case of "policy" and not "corruption".</div>
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<br /></div>
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The other question is of how new
entrants "sold" equity in their "yet to become operational"
companies to foreign entities at "huge valuations". True....but what
no one bothered to highlight is that the "seller" <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">did not take a single paisa home</i>. The
money brought in by the foreigner went <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">into</i>
the company....and was used to fund roll-outs, operational losses, interest
charges, government fees etc. There was no profit....in fact as the Voda
example shows, it would take years to make profits. The hyper competition in
the sector made the path to profitability even longer. Most common people never
understand such details, and an irresponsible media - many of whom have benefitted
from similar deals themselves - never bothered to explain.</div>
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<br /></div>
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In any case, after two failed
rounds of auctions, the truth about the market value of the spectrum has now
emerged. The notional loss to the government was not Rs 1.76 lac crores, but
some Rs 45,000 odd crores. To repeat my earlier point, this was money
transferred from government to the people. Not corruption....but just a
government policy. Hate the Congress for it's economic policies.....and I have
no problem. But call them corrupt for this....and I will fight it tooth and
nail.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Take coal. The first chargesheet
has been filed a couple of days back, and the CBI has clearly stated <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">there was no case of corruption</i>. Yes,
the corporate involved - Navbharat - had fudged figures to prove eligibility. This
is a crime alright, and maybe some babus and politicians were involved, but
these are randomized cases of small-scale corruption. Nothing of the order of
Rs 1.86 lac crores. And the BJP is as complicit in such acts of corruption as
the Congress. Also, lets not forget....it was the PM who initiated the process
of switching away from "screening committees" to
"auctions". It was the state governments - many of the BJP but also
of other parties - that opposed the auctions. Why did they oppose? Why let them
off the hook? If it took 5 years to implement auctions, we should certainly question
the time it took, but lets place the blame where it belongs. The one who
initiates change, cannot be the one who is corrupt.</div>
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<br /></div>
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In both coal and 2G, local cases
of corruption must have taken place. That's the reality of Indian politics and
we must find ways to eliminate it. But to say that the Congress government
orchestrated massive corruption is dirty politics, apart from being factually
wrong. Its OK for the BJP to make such allegations.....its a valid political
strategy after all.....but its not OK for constitutional bodies like the CAG
and others like the media to become a part of it.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
One last point on the Adarsh
scam. Sure, there appears to be corruption in this case. But please pause and
think if this is the only building in Mumbai in which corruption charges exist.
The fact is that the real estate market in business is full of dubious
practices and all parties - most notably the BJP and Shiv Sena - are deeply
entrenched in the real estate business. Why single out Adarsh?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u>The real truth</u> is that
with passage of time, the truth is starting to emerge. 2G was not a scam at
all. It was a preferred government policy which benefitted the people directly.
Coal was not a scam....it was a case of implementation delay (of auctions).
Adarsh was a scam....but hardly the only building in Mumbai that should be
singled out. Most corruption charges were political in design. Fuelled by a
politically motivated CAG, and an irresponsible media....</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-34924950937587305492014-03-03T19:54:00.001-08:002014-03-03T19:54:06.290-08:00Why does Modi not face media???<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The answer is simple. He is
afraid. But what is he afraid of? If his administrative and development record
is so brilliant, shouldnt he be tomtomming it all around? Shouldnt he be
seeking out media, rather than shunning it? The fact that he is afraid shows
that he is worried about being exposed. But exposed of what? I'll tell you
what. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Modi has positioned himself as
the man who is "perfect". When you hear Modi speak, you feel like
he's done nothing wrong ever. He's a decision maker, a "loh" and
"vikas" purush, a solid nationalist who can talk back to China and
Pakistan, a genuine secular who treats all equaly unlike the Congress, and so
on. There are no flaws in Modi's image. He is virtually, like the Hindus would
like to call him, Bhagwan Ram, a near-perfect man. This visual of Modi = Ram is
critial for Hindus to unite behind him. It is this visual that Modi doesnt want
disturbed. Any interaction with the noisy and aggressive media in India
represents that risk. Hence it's best to avoid it altogether.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
But is Modi really so flawless? Is
he really the god that he makes himself out to be? The truth, as you would have
guess, is anything but.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
If he faced media, here are some
truly embarassing questions he would have to answer:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
1. Why does he not answer questions
on 2002 riots? How did he let 2000+ people die in his state, right under his
watch, when a full-blown crisis in Assam led to under 100 deaths? Why were his
ministers (Maya Kodnani) and party workers indicted when he claims his govt was
not involved? How was his governance so poor that it took months to control the
situation?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
2. If he is not anti-Muslim, why
has he never given seats to any Muslims in the last 3 assembly elections in
Gujarat? Does he find no one capable of winning? How come his party does not
have any Christian leaders in senior positions? Nor any Muslims worth their
name? Even by law of probabilities, shouldnt there be a certain % of people
from these minority communities in his govt/party?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
3. Why did it take 10 years to
get a Lok Ayukta in Gujarat? Why did he change the law so as to make it easier
to appoint a "convenient" Lok Ayukta? Why is his state's bill so much
weaker than the center's Lokpal?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
4. Why is/are there only 1 or 2
RTI commissioners in the state, when there could be as many as 8-9?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
5. Why does he lie about no riots
in Gujarat, when Lok Sabha records indicate Gujarat had 246 incidents in the
four years since 2009? (http://tinyurl.com/of3x6rh). Incidentally, the 3rd
state on this list is MP and 4th Karnataka, both ruled by BJP during this
period of time.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
6. Why did he ask his police
force to stalk the young girl? What was his relationship with her? How many
people - including judges, CAG officials, police personnel, ordinary citizens -
are being similarly stalked?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
7. What is his stand on Sec 377?
Does he stand by his party's regressive views on the subject? Can he clearly
declare that he is opposed to scrapping this section?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
8. What is his view on reviving
economic growth? He talks of manufacturing.....but apart from doling out cheap
land, does he have any other plans different from what the Congress had? </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
9. How will he justify the
dirt-cheap land given to Adani, Tata and Ambanis? </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
10. Why does Modi lie about the
development statistics in his state? Why does he not acknowldge that AP,
Maharashtra, Delhi, Haryana....have all grown as fast or faster than Gujarat in
the last ten years? Why does he not acknowledge the severe indictment Gujarat
has received on HDI indicators?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
There are many more questions
that media would want to ask (Ishrat Jahan, Haren Pandya, Surat floods....). If
Modi is confident about himself and his record, why doesnt he open up? Why is
he so afraid? Isn't he behaving like a coward, running away from tough
questions? Rahul Gandhi got ridiculed when he appeared before Arnab, but at
least he had the guts to do so? He didn't walk away, nor did he duck any
questions. He may have said "system" and "women's
empowerment" too many times, but at least we know what he has in his mind.
We don't know anything that is in Modi's mind at all. At least, not the
details, which would only be known on close questioning.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
In the past, the BJP used to
taunt the Congress about entering into a public debate. I think a good starting
point would be a Modi interview. It would be a "safer" option,
considering that he has a lot of sympathizers in media. Modi in front on Arnab
would be comfortable....Arnab would ensure that! He doesnt have to face
toughies (for him) like Karan Thapar, the way Rahul Gandhi faced a toughie (for
him) like Arnab.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u>The real truth</u> is that Modi
knows how thoroughly he will be exposed as being a hollow person; someone who
makes tall claims but doesnt know how to justify them. That's why Modi prefers
to "shoot and scoot" or "hit and run" if you prefer that
metaphor! Say something and run! No need to take cross-questions! People are realizing
this ploy....and sooner or later will demand he face the media.</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-70002566361696205302014-02-25T18:32:00.000-08:002014-02-25T18:32:01.035-08:00Fraud polls.....a sinister BJP strategy?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The Economic Times talks of a
sting operation conducted by a TV channel called News Express which shows that "<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">undercover reporters agreed to manipulate
poll data</i>". It adds "<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Clips
from the sting operation aired by the channel showed many pollsters agreeing to
produce favourable numbers by leveraging the so-called margin of error, a
statistical concept meant to indicate the quality of sampling and the accuracy
to be expected from survey results</i>". The fact is that the manipulation
goes way beyond playing with statistical errors. The methods, and intentions,
are far more sinister. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
But before that, lets look at who
has been the beneficiary of these fraud polls. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">One single party, the BJP</b>. The BJP has been showing rising with
every poll, creating the illusion of a wave. The timing of the wave was always
suspicious. It rose with the appointment of Narendra Modi first as the poll
campaign chief of his party, and later, and at a much faster pace, after he was
made the PM nominee. If someone is paying off the field researcher to show a
favorable result, who could it be? I think we are smart enough to figure that
out!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The methods, like I said earlier,
are far more sinister than merely "leveraging" some "sample of
error". That's just the talk of a guilty man trying to drown his crime in
a lot of mumbo-jumbo. Of course, all researches have errors, but a research is
designed in a way that keeps error at an acceptable level. And depending on the
design and the sample size, certain data cuts are not permited because the error
would be too high. Error is central to any sampling; there is no surprise, nor
possibility of an excuse, in error rates. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
But there are other more devious
ways used to manipulate results. A field researcher may simply
"fudge" the questionnaire, filling exactly what he wants to fill
without so much as bothering to ask the respondent for his/her views. Or
changing the respondent's answers even after recording them on the
questionnaire. Or entering the wrong responses into the "system" so
as to suit the sponsor. This is all too common because the field agency is
under pressure to deliver "cheap". Well, respondents deliver real
quick by filling the questionnaires all up at home, or resorting to the tricks
mentioned before! In the process, they also make themselves richer by a fair
bit. Don't believe this? Consider this. A 20,000 sample size research should
cost up to Rs 2-3 crores at current rates. If the fieldwork involves extensive
travel into remote villages, the costs could increase beyond this. Which news
channel has so much budget? Many of these news channels do 3-5 polls before an
election. How can they afford so many? I'll tell you how. They get it done
cheap! (For the official records, they say that the research costs are shared
with a newspaper, but in reality, that would only halve the cost....not make it
so affordable).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The second sinister reason is
even more sinister (perhaps). The researcher goes to a home, finds it to be a
supporter of an "opposing" party, and <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">simply skips the home</b>! Simple and damned effective! He then goes to
a home where he finds a supporter of his devious sponsor, and finishes the
interview there. Clearly, the results will make the sponsor happy!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
A 3rd devious design is when
information of the "starting point" of the fieldwork gets known to
the sponsor in advance. The starting point is where, typically, a researcher
begins his survey, and to eliminate any sampling bias, he follows a "right
hand rule" to cover the first few houses he encounters. If this starting
point is known in advance, the sponsor plugs his messages into those homes in
advance, thus influencing the minds of those respondents.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
This is why polls results are so
different from reality. In 2004 and 2009, the Congress was shown to be the
loser, just like it is being shown today. In both times, the BJP was expected
to "romp home". The reality couldnt have been farther from the truth.
The BJP was trounced, the Congress emerged stronger in 2009. Take the recent
assembly polls. All pollsters got AAP wrong. Why? Because maybe their sponsor was
not AAP! Simple....In all examples, the BJP is the biggest beneficiary of these
polls. Not surprising it is the only party that is opposing the Election
Commission's own view that opinion polls should be banned.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
In today's ET, BJP spokesperson
Prakash Javdekar has given a silly statement "<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">We haven’t yet demanded a ban because</i> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">these are just opinion polls, and people vote on their own
considerations</i>". Really? And how do people form their "considerations"?
ONLY and ONLY via media. Consider this. Most people think UPA2 is very corrupt.
How do these people have this opinion? Did any of them personally read the
CAG's report on 2G or coal? Did any of them do any "chai pe charcha"
(that hyped-up smokescreen to justify the fraud poll results) to unearth nuggets
of wisdom from scratch? No. They all read the papers and worse....watched the
news (often called Horror Entertainment Channels!). </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The BJP's game plan could be to
influence the voters and make them vote for it. That is why they are creating
this bogus fear of a "hung Parliament", and the need for a
"decisive verdict". An otherwise moderate Hindu, worried about the
country's economic problems but not supporting the BJP's polarizing politics, could
be made to swing towards the BJP by creating the impression that it is
"nearly there". A Muslim who would traditionally vote for the SP in
UP would swing towards the BSP thinking "all" have shifted
loyalties....helping divide the Muslim vote and the BJP. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Influencing public opinion is an
attack on democracy. It is fooling the public. How can a party that does this
be trusted? Already we've heard of noted journalists like Sagarika Ghose,
Siddharth Varadarajan, Hartosh Singh Bal.....and dare I add the name of Tarun
Tejpal to this list....being ousted from their jobs for political reasons (they
are no Congress afficianados by the way). The party that influences public
opinion and gets after journalists won't think twice before muting out every
opposing voice when it comes to power. Don't believe it? See how Muslims in
Gujarat hardly have any voice left. They dont dare to even carry out a street
morcha! When Haren Pandya started to croak, he was silenced by someone (His
family accuses Modi; not proven though).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u>The real truth</u> is that I
have always said that opinion polls were fraudulent. It's now been proven by
this sting operation. Fortunately, Times Now has said it wont use C-Voter
again. But will they use someone else who might be as fraudulent? The problem
is not with C-Voter. The problem is with the party that funds these
pollsters....the party that is shown as the beneficiary?</div>
<br />
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-58880306895077608042014-02-14T18:49:00.000-08:002014-02-14T18:49:03.734-08:00Delhi must vote Congress back to power....<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Arvind Kejriwal is gone. And my
impression is that he's gone for good. If elections were to be held again in
Delhi, it is unlikely the people of Delhi will vote for him. Why would they? Their
proud city, which boasts the best infrastructure in the country and the fastest
growing economy, has suddenly been put on a steep downslide; a slippery slope from
which recovery will be difficult if it continues for even a little longer.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
If Delhiites were to introspect,
they would realize that they really had nothing to complain about from their state
government. Sure, they may have had complaints with the Central government, but
their own local government had done fabulous work. After 15 years of continous
and rapid progress, Delhi had finally overtaken Mumbai as the place where the
most corporate action happened. It sported the best airport, the best metro,
smooth-as-Hema-Malini's-cheeks-roads (!), the best education system, and
importantly, the biggest jobs market. Delhi's economy grew at an average of 10%
per annum - a China-like rate, and higher even than the much tomtommed Gujarat
rate of growth - and brought enormous prosperity to its people. Not
surprisingly, Delhi's per-capita income was the highest in the country,
crossing the Rs 2 lacs/annum mark. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Sure, Delhi had its problems,
many of them monumental. As happens in all developing countries, the economic
growth created a huge influx of migrants from the relatively backward parts of
the country. Sharing borders with UP meant that that influx was particularly
easy from that state. The migrants created a block of 60 lac slum dwellers, and
a whole lot of illegal JJ (jhuggi jhopri) clusters. It also led to an increase
in crime, especially against women. Delhi picked up the reputation of being the
rape capital of the country, making its people seethe with anger. What do angry
people do? Lose their sanity, and attack the first object that comes in front
of them - usually the government of the day.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
That's when Kejriwal got into the
act. The timing was perfect. When he railed against Sheila Dixit, he looked
like a messiah, a contrast much like the one people are seeing betwen an
uncouth, dictatorial Modi and a too-decent, democratic Manmohan Singh. Kejriwal
used the language of the gutters, and attracted that lot to his fold. But
surprisingly, he also attracted the educated, the well-off, the same ones who
had benefited the most in the previous 15 years, perhaps as a result of anger
against the Central government. Kejriwal's success was thus one of timing; his
exit from the scene will also be one of the same. 49 days of Kejriwal must
surely have made Delhiites bitter. A yearning for the "good old days"
must surely have returned.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Does the BJP offer a progressive
alternative to Sheila Dixit? No it doesn't. For remember, that much as the BJP today
abuses Kejriwal for his 50% cuts in power prices, it too had promised an
almost-similar 30% cut in tariffs. And much as it abuses Kejriwal that he
doesn't know that the regulator sets the tariffs, not the government, it too
made exactly the same promise. How can people demand that power tariffs come
down on the one hand, and at the same time, also demand that every resource (coal,
land, water) be auctioned to the highest bidder? People may not understand economics,
but the BJP should. Yet, it made the same offer that AAP did.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Again, like AAP, the regressive
BJP also opposed FDI in retail. Imagine a day when a Delhiite would have to go
to Gurgaon to shop at Walmart or Tesco, while a Mumbai resident would just hop
across to one close by. The BJP's opposition is purely opportunistic. For I
cannot imagine Gujarat not allowing Walmart, when lacs of Gujjus in the US do
most of their value-shopping there. If BJP has its way, then young Delhiites
with a dream to move up the social ladder should not work in smart <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>retail outlets, but in "baniya" kirana
shops. This is the vision of this party. It protects the baniyas....the same
guys who have caused much of the price inflation in food and vegetables. If
Delhiites want relief from inflation, they must throw out the baniya-supporting
BJP.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Apart from all this, Delhi has
always enjoyed a certain liberal culture. People from all parts of the country
live here. All cultures find acceptance. There are the ultra-chic fashion
shows, as well as the ultra-ethnic Dilli-hart option. The republic-day parade,
with its pan-India look and feel is one thing; the everyday parade of
culturally diverse people is another. How can such a throbbing and vibrant population
vote for a party that believes in 17th century bigotry (Section 377, remember)
and the monopoly of one-religion (Hindutva is nothing but Hindu domination) and
caste (brahmins)? </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The BJP is wrong for Delhi. It is
wrong for India. But in a moment of heat, Delhiites made a big mistake in
November last year. It's time to undo that mistake. For Delhi to remain modern
and liberal, it needs a modern and liberal government, and the only one that
fits the bill is a Congress government. The Congress has its own problems, but
it's the still the best of the lot. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<u>The real truth</u> is that
Delhiites got taken in by the political rhetoric of Kejriwal and made the
blunder of voting for him. I hope they don't now swing towards the other evil -
the BJP - and make another blunder. Delhiites must push the "pause"
button, even rewind if necessary, and think of what brought their city glory in
the last 15 years. It's still not to late to make amends....</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-28849686825870833542014-02-01T03:35:00.002-08:002014-02-01T03:50:50.501-08:00Why 1984 cannot be compared with 2002….<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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It’s
become the commonest defence the BJP puts up when Narendra Modi is attacked on the
2002 Godhra riots; that the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Congress is guilty
of a similar carnage during the anti-Sikh riots in 1984. No Congress
spokesperson has been able to hold his head up and point out the differences
between the two. However there is a big difference. The difference is in the
way the two parties have responded politically post the events. </div>
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<br /></div>
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Post
the reprehensible incidents, both political parties have responded very
differently. The Congress has tried to make amends; as a result, the Sikhs have
largely forgiven the Congress. But the BJP has made no amends at all. In fact,
it has gone the opposite way and made Godhra the centerpiece of its political
strategy in Gujarat and now, in a sublte way by making Amit Shah in charge of
UP, nationally. Modi’s innings as Gujarat CM began with Godhra. There is no
question of him abandoning the Godhra strategy. Or apologizing for the carnage.
He is happy to enjoy the love and affection his fellow Gujaratis have showered
over him….by voting for him again and again.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
How
has the response to the two parties been different? The Congress apologized to
the Sikhs. In public and in action. Sonia Gandhi made Manmohan Singh the PM
even though no one would have given him that chance. The Sikhs felt assuaged.
It was the Congress’s way of apologizing; by handing over the most powerful
position in the country to a Sikh. Of course, there were political reasons that
Sonia had for doing so; but she grabbed the chance. Of course, Manmohan Singh’s
brilliant record as a bureaucrat; his courageous reforms under Narasimha Rao;
his intellectual prowess; and his apolitical nature all made him the “natural”
choice. In making Manmohan Singh the PM, Sonia hit two birds with one stone.
Not only did she give the nation an able PM, she also offered an olive branch
to the Sikh community.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
The
Sikhs forgave the Congress, though they never forgot the carnage itself. Since
1984, the Sikhs in Punjab voted the Congress to power twice for a total of 10
years; the SAD – the party of the Sikhs – managed only slightly better at thrice
for 12 years (before the current tenure started). The loss of the Congress in
the latest polls in the state was considered an unexpected shock; and was
attributed to factors not related to the 1984 events.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
In
contrast, the BJP made no amends. The party retained it’s hardline Hindutva
imagery. Neither the party nor Modi has ever apologized to the Muslim community.
The BJP abused its power over the Gujarat police while probing the Godhra riots
(after having severely abused it during the riots); as well as over the state
judiciary which had become completely saffronized. Things became so bad that investigative
functions had to be handed over to an SIT; and Godhra hearings moved outside
the state. The state continued its perseculation of Muslims. One after another,
fake encounters took place in the state. The state government refused to pony
up monies for the restoration of mosques destroyed during the riots. When the BJP’s
Minister of Home during the riots Haren Pandya was murdered, the state made
attempts (and succeeded initially) to put the blame on innocent muslims from
Hyderabad. All this indicates that the BJP is not contrite. If anything, it
wears Godhra on its sleeve – preserving its image of being as much anti-Muslim
as it is pro-Hindu. That stance has polarized the country completely. It has
helped it win power repeatedly in Gujarat (and MP). But it has caused it to
lose power everywhere else in the country.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
In
the Center, the BJP was booted out in 2004 immediatley after Godhra. In UP –
where it all started with the demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992 – the
party has never wielded power since the Babri days; Godhra couldn’t help it
revive the Babri frenzy. In Maharashtra, where the equally saffron Shiv Sena is
its ally, the alliance has ruled only once for 4 years since 1995; and never
after Godhra. In Bihar, its ally of 17 years broke relations recently. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
The
BJP of course says it is has been fair to the Muslims. It uses the fact that it
made APJ Abdul Kalam the President to prove this. That was a good thing to do;
but it looks like an exception that has never been repeated. Can we ever
imagine the BJP making a Muslim its party President, forget the PM of the
country? Never. In fact, the BJP projects Modi as its future PM candidate. And
Modi hasn’t even given a single seat in the state elections to Muslim candidates.
He hasn’t done it ever and he is not going to do it in the future. At the
national level, how many Muslim faces does one see in the BJP? Except for a few
“show pieces”, none. Forget the Muslims. How many Christian faces are there in
the party? None. The BJP is proud of its staunch Hindu character. Even in that
domain, it remains exclusivist and strongly Brahminical. The BJP’s inherent nature
is to polarize. It polarized the country on the Hindu-Muslim axis. It polarized
the Hindus on the Brahmin-others axis. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
In the
end, the Congress apologized to the Sikhs, gave power to them, made a Sikh the
PM, and has included Sikhs in the party’s power structure. The BJP has never
apologized to the Muslims and Christians (remember how Dara Singh – a Bajrang
Dal member – murdered Christian missionary Graham Staines in Orissa in 1999?);
never given them power; obviously never made a Muslim or Christian the PM or
even party President; and rather than including them in its party, has
intentionally alienated them further. This is the difference that must be
remembered. There may be similarities in the mistake committed initially; but
the corrective actions taken thereafter are totally divergent.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u>The
real truth</u> is that the Congress remains culturally, religiously and
socially heterogeneous; the BJP a Brahminical monolith, with Modi a convenient “adjustment”
for now. The Congress’s heterogeneity forced it to apologize to the Sikhs; the
BJP’s homogeneity compels it not to do so to the Muslims. The two parties are
incomparable; the two incidents likewise.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">(Note: This
post was uploaded first in Dec 2012….this is a slightly updated one)</span></i></div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-37013328681723535922014-01-28T19:59:00.002-08:002014-01-28T19:59:25.446-08:00Rahul Gandhi’s interview rattles the BJP….<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<br />
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
BJP bhakts, who
clutched at the weak straw of Rahul Gandhi’s inaccessibility and shyness, were
in for a big shock when he decided to reach out to media. Not to any ordinary “friendly”
media types, but to some of the biggest and toughest – Dainik Bhaskar and Times
Now. Shocked and awed, BJP trolls could only criticize Rahul for the way he spoke,
not for what he spoke. Clearly they were rattled.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Rahul’s areas of
focus were spelt out repeatedly (so much so that #BJPrattled complained about that
also!). Clearly, women’s empowerment, providing youth with opportunities,
fighting corruption, making India a manufacturing superpower and sharing power
with people are Rahul’s theme for his party.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Now this is not the
first time he’s spoken about these subjects. He has<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>been demanding 33% reservation for women in
Parliament for long. His party even got the legislation passed in the Rajya
Sabha a few years back. (Incidentally, in today’s speech, Obama also spoke of
women’s empowerment). He has repeatedly said that if our women remained behind,
“only half” of India would progress, and he’s not interested in this kind of
India. Obama made similar sounds.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
On opportunities for
the youth, we know that that has been Rahul’s obsession for long. He has
transformed his party’s youth bodies in ways which allow the youth to enter and
actively participate in politics. Equal opportunity to all is what is close to
the heart of the youth, and that’s what Rahul has delivered in his previous job
as President of Youth Congress. He is now doing that for the larger AICC. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
On corruption, Rahul
came out strongly. Rahul is the one who brought in the Lokpal. Till the day he
announced that he would make it happen, the Lokpal bill was rotting in
Parliament. As soon as he announced it, it became law within days. The BJP fell
in line, the entire opposition fell in line. If the BJP had had their will,
there would be no Lokpal today. Anna realized this duplicity of the BJP when it
first promised to include Lok Ayuktas within the Lokpal bill, only to later use
the garb of “federalism” to go back on its word. We know how Narendra Modi
actively connived to deny Gujarat a Lok Ayukta for 10 long years. We also know
that the BJP has not supported the grand vision of Rahul on cleaning up
politics – his “six pending bills”. Earlier, Rahul wanted to give the Lokpal
constitutional status, but the BJP didn’t allow that too. At all points, the
BJP has used corruption only to crib and complain and badger the Congress with;
but has shown very little interest in actually doing anything constructive. In
fact, it went ahead and diluted the Gujarat Lok Ayukta Act giving its CM even
more control over the watchdog. Fighting corruption has become Rahul’s calling
card; not something that he runs away from. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
This is the “new
system” that he repeatedly referred to in his interview. A system in which a Sheila
Dixit will have to face the courts if that’s what the evidence indicates; a
Kalmadi will have to resign when there is prima facie evidence. And a system
unlike what the BJP wants when it decided to bring Yeddy back into the party. Rahul
may well be compelled to ally with RJD because of political reasons, but at
least he doesn’t bring corrupt people back into his party.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
His spiel on making
India the manufacturing hub was part of his government’s long term promise…. His
party’s visionary Delhi-Mumbai Industrial corridor is all about manufacturing
growth, of creating new smart cities….things that Modi has tried to usurp. His
government’s New Manufacturing Policy is all about increasing share of
manufacturing to 25% of the GDP from some 16% at present. His government’s
focus on infrastructure is also about increasing manufacturing. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Now to some
specifics. Arnab tried to provoke Rahul by asking he was afraid of Modi. Rahul
was cool. He first said that he was afraid of nothing, given his tryst with
personal tragedy in the past. But anyone with even little intelligence (and
that clearly excludes BJP trolls) should know by now, that he is THE PM
candidate….his party’s ad campaign foregrounds him. Only dimwits would continue
questioning if he is the PM candidate. If there were any doubts, Rahul
clarified that if his party failed, he would take responsibility. Has Modi ever
said that? Why….Modi didn’t even go to Karnataka to campaign, knowing his party
would lose. He ran away from a tough fight. But he was all over in Gujarat, MP,
Chhatisgarh and Rajasthan….states where the BJP was expected to do well
anyways. Running away is not new for Modi. He ran away from Karan Thapar’s
interview as well!</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Importantly, Rahul
drove home the difference of his party with the BJP. The BJP wants “concentration
of power”, while the Congress stands for “giving power to people”. This is so
true. In Gujarat, no one even knows who the 2<sup>nd</sup> leader is after
Modi. Rahul promised empowerment to women. Modi stalked women. In the past, we’ve
seen Rahul’s liberal credentials. His fight against Sec 377 is well know. In
contrast, BJP wants to keep the country in the 17<sup>th</sup> century. The
Cong’s difference with the BJP on communalism is well known.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
On 1984, I think
Rahul handled the issue head-on. He accepted some Cong men were possibly
involved. Has the BJP ever admitted that any BJP people were involved in
Babri/Gujarat riots? Nah….not until the courts declared them guilty. Rahul also
made a correct distinction; that the Congress govt never supported the
anti-Sikh riots. The regrettable carnage took place possibly because the
government had been shaken with the loss of its PM. But in Gujarat, a CM-in-harness
either willingly allowed and fanned the carnage, or at the very least, sat
twiddling his thumbs while his state’s Hindu zealots brutalized the minorities.
It is because of this difference that that the Sikhs have forgiven the
Congress, voting it to power for almost half the time since 1984 in Punjab. The
Muslims have never forgiven the BJP. The BJP only wins in states which have
<10% Muslim population. The Congress is full of Sikhs. Modi still continues
to deny Muslims seats. BJP trolls can compare 1984 with 2002, but there is
nothing comparable at all. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
In the end analysis,
Rahul spoke well, confidently and gently. It is this gentleness that BJP trolls
are panning today. I don’t blame them. They are so used to the uncouth, crass,
and guttural conduct of their PM candidate that they have forgotten what
gentleness can achieve. They need to only remind themselves of Mahatma Gandhi’s
gentle style, and what it did to British bullies.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u>The real truth</u>
is that Rahul’s interview with Arnab was a powerful “coming out” moment for him.
He could have chosen a “softer” journo, but he decided to sit across the bully
Arnab. He could surely have done better in body language, and he will improve. But
what he spoke about is what we should focus on. His vision of an inclusive
India (he hates “unfairness”), an India that provides opportunties to its youth
and its women, one that fights corruption with sincerity, is what we should
remember. There was no bluster in Rahul’s talk….even Arnab conceded that Rahul’s
heart was in the right place. It is this that has the BJP rattled. It is this
that has BJP trolls attacking his interview….</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-25817291856209582932014-01-19T18:12:00.002-08:002014-01-19T18:12:18.939-08:00Modi’s speeches show his Congress phobia….<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<br />
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
There was a joke
going around on twitter yesterday which captures all of Narendra Modi’s
speeches very effectively: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Congress talks
about Congress, Congress, Congress. Modi talks about Congress, Congress,
Congress</i>! And indeed, hidden in this innocuous banter, is the very real truth
about Modi’s Congress phobia. The Congress phobia manifests itself in the form
of “virulent attacks” on the party, just like inferiority complex often presents
itself as superiority complex. The fact that this is a phobia is borne out by
the continuing refusal of Modi to be interviewed by journalists – who could
expose it.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Just look at just a
few of Modi’s Congress-phobic utterances yesterday:</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Congress did not name in PM candidate
because…..(a plethora of pitiable reasons)</div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>The Nehru-Gandhi family is anti-OBC. It suffers
from “feudal mindset, casteist prejudices and sense of uniqueness”</div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Idea of India no one’s monopoly (in reference to
Rahul’s assertion that Congress is an Idea genetically coded into India).</div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>(Congress) cannot deign to compete with a tea
hawker</div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>They feel ashamed because while they have
pedigree, I can only boast of my achievements</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
All the above
statements are just from today’s TOI. There were countless other references in
his speech yesterday. Obviously, thanks to all these Congress-phobic jabs,
there was no time left for anything that would tell us what Modi’s vision for
the country is. What eventually came out looked second grade, and mostly a
continuance of what Congress has been practicing for a full decade now. Sample
the following:</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Rainbow model of governance. Focus on culture,
agriculture, women, natural resources, youth, democracy, knowledge<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(I mean seriously, this banal statement is
all Modi could make?)</div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Black money stashed abroad to be brought back
and used for poor (Ya, but how? Does Modi support the idea that all currency
notes above Rs 50 should be scrapped? All cash transactions above Rs 2000
should be banned? How will he do more than what Chidambaram has done with Swiss
and other governments?)</div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Shift healthcare focus from curative to
preventive. Health assurance needed, not just health insurance (But this is
exactly what the Congress’s National Health Missions are, no? Besides Modi
hasn’t been able to deliver even the most basic of healthcare in his state – as
borne out by the pathetic HDI figures; so how will he do so nationally?)</div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>Price stabilization fund for inflation (Very
little is known of this idea which is a problem by itself, but isn’t monetary
policy the turf of the RBI? Or does Modi not know that?)</div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>100 smart cities to be created (A continuation
of Congress’s idea. Remember a large number of cities are being created under
the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor. Ditto under the Mum-Bangalore,
Bangalore-Chennai and now Delhi-Kolkata corridors as well). </div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>IITs, IIMs and AIIMS in every state (Again, a
continuation of Congress’s vision – it has already created several new
IITs/IIMs).</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Yesterday, the
papers carried the story that the BJP was going to continue with MNREGA and FSB
as well. So really, where is the difference between the BJP’s vision from the
Congress’s?</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
There isn’t. At
least not in Modi’s tiny mind. What is in abundant supply in his mind however
is rhetoric and there was plenty on display yesterday, like in all speeches</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Govt dole,
dole, dole ki baat karti hai, per govt bhi dol rahi hai</i> (completely
senseless; just a play of words; besides, how many people understand the word
“dole” to mean subsidies?)</div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Since
defeat looks inevitable, Sonia Gandhi decided to protect her son. No mother
would like to sacrifice her son at the altar of politics</i> (Arre, but Rahul
is the one who will face the flak anyways. Besides, he has the guts to campaign
in difficult states. Modi on the other hand refused to go to Karnataka).</div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Congressmen
had come hoping they would get their PM candidate but they got three LPG
cylinders instead</i> (Honestly, the same could be said about Modi. People came
hoping to hear his vision; all they got was more gas).</div>
<div style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span>And of course the rhetoric on black money. This
is such a bogey now, no one believes it. Its one of those issues that the BJP
rakes up before every election, only to forget it later).</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
The highlight of
Modi’s speech yesterday however was his retort to Mani Shanker Aiyer’s “tea boy”
comment. Senseless and silly as that comment was, for that kind of personalized
attack is really the BJP’s style, not the Congress’s, Modi’s retort was equally
senseless and silly. He painted the Congress as being casteist. Now the BJP,
which is a party of Brahmins – one that has grudgingly appointed an OBC as its
PM candidate – shouldn’t call others casteist. Aakar Patel once wrote on how
the entire top leadership of the RSS, BJP, and other Sangh outlets is comprised
of Brahmins. If there is one party that is truly casteist, it has to be the
BJP. But for Modi, who has earned the #feku tag, truth is an easily dispensable
commodity. This is also borne out by his advice that “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Non violence is the top dharma</i>”. Really, Mr. Modi, you are saying
this? And “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">all spiritual paths are the
same</i>”, but then Mr. Modi, why did you just introduce a bill (Freedom of
Religion (amendment) bill) in your state that seeks to merge Jains into
Hinduism? The Jains have strongly protested against this bill; even held
dharnas. Why did you do this? Only to show Hindus to be a larger number than
they are? Why do you have this Hindu-centric world view?</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u>The real truth</u>
is that Modi’s comedy show yesterday was just that; a comedy show. One has to admit
Modi’s speeches are always good fun to listen to. He’s a great stand-up
comedian. But please let’s not make the mistake of paying too much attention to
what he says. Its not the content that makes a Modi speech; it is the comic style.
I too had a good laugh yesterday!</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-83670932460577506912014-01-17T18:50:00.001-08:002014-01-17T18:50:44.503-08:00The difference between a Rahul Gandhi and a Modi speech….<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<br />
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Rahul Gandhi
delivered yesterday, one of the most powerful speeches I have ever heard. His
detractors have been forced to take note. The speech spread an immediate panic
in the BJP, with twitter trolls getting into an overdrive to trash it – no
doubt on instructions from their paying bosses. The media pundits – many of
them BJP acolytes – were forced to sit up and acknowledge that a rousing speech
could be delivered in a style so different from the type of guttural speeches
that one has gotten used to hearing from Modi and Kejriwal.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
The difference
between a Modi speech and Rahul Gandhi’s was just that – the style. Not once
did Rahul abuse Modi or anyone for that matter. Not once did Rahul say “BJP-mukt
Bharat”, in retort to Modi’s constant “Congress-mukt Bharat” refrain; a refrain
that reveals Modi’s fascist beliefs (that a particular party should simply not
exist at all). This is a democracy and every party has a right to exist in
India. The point about the Congress being a part of India’s genetic coding was well
struck…..a party doesn’t survive for 125 long years unless it becomes a part of
its people. And Rahul was right. Congress has become an idea, rather than a
mere organization or party. An idea that, in contrast with all others on offer
today, stands for 21<sup>st</sup> century values best described by words like “liberal”,
“inclusive”, “decent”, “respectful of people” and other such. Like I
mentioned…..all of these are in direct contrast with what the BJP stands for: “regressive”,
“divisive”, “abusive” and “distrustful of people (why snoop otherwise?)”.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Rahul spoke like
Obama. He spoke with a passion rarely seen in Indian politics; an even more
rarely in Congress leaders. Like Obama, Rahul <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>roused his cadres bringing them to their feet.
They hadn’t come to stop demanding Rahul be made PM, and they didn’t,
especially during his speech when cries of “PM PM” rent the air. Who the PM
candidate of the Congress is was on obvious display yesterday…..for all who
observe politics. The party with its 125 years of experience had the courage to
stick to its principles – that it chooses its PM only after winning the
elections.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
For a change, Rahul
indulged in rhetoric, even though in small doses. Modi on the other hand is
mostly about rhetoric. “My voice will be heard in Pakistan” is nothing but the
loud but fearful cry from a coward sitting in the safety of his own backyard.
The real voice is that of the jawans….fewest of whom come from Gujarat. When
Modi screams “we need strong leadership”, its all rhetoric for we are
immediately reminded of Godhra, Ishrat Jahaan and Gujarat’s sweetheart land deals
with Adani. Some leadership! When Modi calls for “eliminating corruption”, we
see the rhetoric in the images of Bangaru Laxman, Nitin Gadkari, Yeddyyurappa,
Pokhriyal and scores more. When Modi extols the virtues of Sardar Patel, we see
the rhetoric (and deceit) in the distance that separates the real iron man from
the #feku. And when Modi says that there have been no communal riots during his
rule in Gujarat, we know the rhetoric as we think of Muzaffarnagar. Even
without any references to history, Modi’s speeches are full of lies. He’s
comfortable with that…..for he knows that no one can question him….he doesn’t
take any media questions after all! What he doesn’t know of course is that
while the public may sometimes bow before a demagogue, they won’t vote for him.
What he perhaps also doesn’t know is that Indians like to see decency in their
leaders; and that’s where their votes flow.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
One can see the
difference between Modi and Rahul on their choice of “target groups” as well.
Modi’s target is the “kattar” Hindu (the fringe elements of this great
religion, who are orthodox and intolerant of other views); Rahul’s is the “poor
classes”, who he wants to convert to “middle classes” in the next 5 years. Modi
tomtoms his OBC credentials; Rahul never once spoke about his or anyone’s
caste. Modi’s chances are only in the Hindi heartland, hence he speaks only in
Hindi; Rahul’s appeal is nationwide, so he spoke in both Hindi and English.
Modi’s biggest supporter is the abusive Hindu zealot; Rahul’s the ordinary
decent, secular Indian lives happily as part of a heterogeneous society. Modi
can only be a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Hindu</i> nationalist;
Rahul cannot be anything but an <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Indian</i>
nationalist. See the difference…..everywhich way, Modi appeals to a sliver of
the population; Rahul to the much bigger whole.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Rahul’s speech was
all about the positive steps he has in mind, his <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">vision</i>. He wants 50% CMs to be women. He wants clean politicians to
enter the fray. He wants the youth to take charge. He wants to work on better
education. He wants to eliminate corruption….and he has a legislative plan. Importantly,
Rahul says “others can complain; but we will deliver”. Modi on the other hand
is just that: permanent cribber. Take away the opportunity to crib, and Modi
will come a cropper; like Kejriwal in Delhi now. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u>The real truth</u>
is that Rahul Gandhi delivered a passionate and rousing speech…..without ever indulging
in even an iota of indecency, a far cry from the usual gutter-level speeches we
hear from Modi. Rahul has offered a liberal, secular and clean alternative to
Modi. The Congress has found its leader. And the leader has rattled the BJP….</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-79706563109073260512014-01-13T21:05:00.001-08:002014-01-13T21:05:13.121-08:00AAP/BJP making Delhi regressive, illiberal….<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<br />
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Delhi till recently
was one of the symbols of modern India….of liberal thinking and free business….largely
a legacy of 15 years of Congress rule. With a change of regime, this proud
legacy of Delhi is in danger. Both the ruling AAP and the hoping-to-rule-soon
BJP have a vision for Delhi that is starkly different from Congress’s
progressive one. If recent decisions of, and public statements by, BJP and AAP
leaders is anything to go by, Delhi will soon change tracks – and head backwards
towards the days when it was known largely as a “Punjabi lala” city.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
What did Delhi transform
into under Congress rule? It developed the best infrastructure the country had –
the best airport, the best metro, the best roads, the best schools and colleges,
the best sports infra and what not. After many years of humiliating power cuts
(I remember waking up in the middle of a hot summer night, sweating profusely, complaining
about the state of affairs in the capital…..till as late as in 2000, when I
moved out of the city). At least from a “physical assets” perspective, Delhi
was becoming a “world” city. The city also had a mixed culture, like all Indian
cities; partly modern/liberal and partly traditional. But the modern/liberal
culture always stood out. This modern/liberal culture was backed up by the
institutions – most notably the Delhi HC, which repeatedly delivered judgments
that took the reputation of the city up a few notches. The NGOs which called
Delhi their home also added a liberal feel to the city (even though many went
overboard with extreme socialistic views at times). Most importantly, the
people of Delhi appeared supportive of free speech (the reason why AAP/IAC
first came about)….a prime characteristic of any liberal society. This was propped
up by the biggest contingent of news reporters and their types – after all,
most news channels were based out of Delhi. Sure, Delhi had its problems –
crime against women, an insensitive police force, loads of migrants from states
with a “khap mentality” – but none that took the shine away completely.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
All that is fast
changing. AAP has taken such silly decisions, it has started hitting at the very
foundation of Delhi. Free water was promised, but it was supposed to be on the
back of removing “massive corruption”, not merely subsidizing costs. Various
news reports have said that the 700 (or 660) litres per person per day is far
too excessive, even more than what many/most European cities manage. What is fundamentally
wrong is that water, a hugely scarce resource, is being given away free. Some have
even said that the next world war could be fought over water (remember “Quantum
of Solace” was based precisely on the theme of control over water). And here,
we have a government giving water away free. Economists know that the only
sustainable way to control demand is by pricing it high. This is plain
stupidity.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Then take the
half-price power decision. Again, the “price” hasn’t come down thanks to the
alleged corruption being removed. It’s just that the government is picking up
the tab now instead of the people. Its just another subsidy. My problem is not
with the subsidy – a government has a right to choose what subsidy it wants. My
problem is that the cut-off for half-price power has been set too high – 400
units/month. Now that’s huge. In Mumbai, 400 units would cost around Rs 3000-3500
per month. Anyone who can spend this much deserves to pay full price and more.
Reportedly, 85% of Delhi will benefit from this subsidy. How can a subsidy be
for the benefit of 85% of the people? The cut-off should have been 100 units or
less…..</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Then the decision to
restrict admissions in Delhi colleges to Delhiites. Now this is similar to the
much-panned ShivSena-imposed Marathi manoos culture which Mumbai suffers from. Delhi
was always different; it was always the hub of the best education in the
country. It benefited from students coming from all over. The students brought
in a diversified culture. That sheen has been completely wiped off by the AAP.
Soon Delhi will return to its “Punjabipan”.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Then the decision to
reverse the previous Cong government’s decision to allow foreign retailers.
Kejriwal says this will lead to unemployment; something that is a factual lie.
But even if we assume it is true, won’t large Indian retail chains also do so?
Will Kejriwal now go about shutting the Big Bazaars and Shoppers’ Stops? And
then why stop there. Even large foreign restaurant chains – McDonalds, KFCs,
Pizza Hut and what have you – affect the business of neighborhood samosa and
chaat-walas. Why not ban them too? All in the name of employment generation????
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
What is tragic for
Delhi is that the political alternative is no better. The BJP is regressive
like how. It’s stand on the SC’s decision to retain Sec 377 is so pathetic, it
disqualifies the party from ruling Delhi as well as the country. People often
misunderstand this subject. By asking for scrapping 377, one is not promoting
gay sex; one is only saying that the choice must be with the people. But then a
party which considers Ramdev to be its spiritual guide, and anoints Modi as its
PM candidate can only be expected to support such 17<sup>th</sup> century
antics.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
BJP also doesn’t
want Delhi to get foreign retailers. It also wants to cut power costs by 30%.
The party’s regressive economic thinking is further borne out from its decision
in Goa to cut petrol prices to Rs 50 odd per litre, when the rest of the
country pays Rs 80. India doesn’t produce enough crude oil; we import oil worth
$100 billion a year. And yet there is a party that subsidizes petrol, the upper-class’s
fuel of choice. Crazy. On education, the BJP’s past record is hardly
encouraging. It completely saffronized education. Even today, in MP, school
students are made to perform surya namaskars and recite Saraswati Vandana. In
Mumbai, BMC (ShivSena) run schools are declaring holidays during Ganpanti and
cutting back on Christmas holidays. What if Delhi’s schools were made to do the
same?</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
And when it comes to
language, the BJP’s has to be the most foul. It’s almost as if the criterion
for becoming a member of the BJP is that one should be able to abuse. Someone.
Anyone! And also indulge in acts of violence. If BJP politicians in Muzaffarnagar
were hononred on Modi’s dias in a rally there, so will Vijay Jolly (the one who
attacked Shoma Chaudhury’s home) and Vishnu Gupta be honored in Delhi. It’s
only a matter of time. Equally, Delhi’s culture leaders – fashion designers,
artists for example – should worry about how BJP/RSS/VHP/Bajrang Dal goons
compelled MF Hussain to shift out of the country. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u>The real truth</u>
is that Delhi’s rapid growth of the last 15 years is bound to be arrested. Very
soon, there will be power cuts in the city. There will be water shortages. Big
businesses will probably feel suffocated and exit. Delhi had wrested momentum away
from Mumbai….that’s going to be reversed. New Delhi will again become Dilli,
and Delhiites Dilliwallas. Sad….</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-18641778349226040182014-01-09T20:31:00.001-08:002014-01-09T20:31:38.286-08:00AAP scuttles Modi’s chances….<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<br />
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Let me cut to the
chase. The so called “Modi wave”, a mostly imaginary and PR-driven creation of
the PM aspirant’s followers, is all but over. For whatever it was worth, the
wave was mostly in a few states, and in a few urban areas in those states at
that. With the AAP targeting the exact same voter base, and with far higher
appeal, Modi’s wave has not only abated, but has actually reversed. Whatever
chances he fancied of becoming PM have all but vanished.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
AAP’s primary TG is
the urban middle class. In Delhi, the AAP won most seats in the main city; in
the outside “rurban” (rural + urban) areas, it fared relatively poorly. This in
Delhi. Now imagine when the party extends its reach beyond the city-state, what
is the likely scenario? It will do well in the core areas of the major cities;
less well or even downright poorly in the outside and rural areas. This
forecast could as well have been made for Narendra Modi. In fact, the key
catchment areas for votes for both Kejriwal and Modi are identical.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
And in these
catchment areas, Modi is getting snuffed out. Yesterday’s TOI poll showed
exactly that. More people are likely to vote for the AAP than the BJP.
Including in Gujarat (46% people said they would vote for AAP; another 22% said
it would depend on the candidate). Remember the poll was conducted in the top 8
cities only; so it has a solid urban bias. Another poll by India Today predicts
pretty much the same scenario. To be fair, Modi still got the top billings in
the TOI poll, but a rookie like Kejriwal got almost half of what Modi got. This
within just one week of Kejriwal forming his Delhi government.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Not surprising then
that the BJP has been badly rattled. BJP loons have been attacking AAP at every
opportunity; in one instance even physically. The BJP is coming off as a party
that is a bad loser, grumbling and complaining and assaulting the winner. This
is not something that too many Indians like to see in their political parties.
A few weeks back, the party had similarly assaulted the editor of Tehelka,
Shoma Chaudhury’s house. Other right-leaning outfits, all somewhere or the
other related to the RSS/BJP, have also indulged in similar acts of violence in
the past. These have now become more common and scaled up. The panic is so much
that the RSS has now formally warned the BJP to be wary of the AAP. The writing
on the wall is clear. The BJP is in trouble. The AAP is spoiling whatever party
it was having.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Let’s compare the
two main personalities. Narendra Modi is best known for his oratory; a euphemism
for his ability to abuse the Congress. He has offered very little in terms of
an alternate vision. Most of the times, his claim to fame is the success of
Gujarat. But he suffers from a serious credibility gap, for everybody knows
that Gujarat has <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">always</i> been
successful, even before Modi came to the helm. This wrongful claiming of
success has earned Modi the #feku tag. The other thing Modi is known for is
Godhra and his hardline Hindutva stand (Hindu Nationalist, remember?). That
earned him the #Hinduhridaysamrat tag. Yes, one last thing Modi is known. His
vast knowledge of history, which has earned him my #comedywithmodi tag!</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
In contrast,
Kejriwal is a learned man, offering definitive (even if regressive and
sometimes downright populist) solutions to citizens’ problems. That is why
nearly 70% of the TOI poll respondents appreciated the work of his government
in the first few days. Kejriwal is known as an anti-corruption crusader; Modi,
in contrast, just inducted corrupt Yeddy back into the party. Kejriwal is as
savvy as Modi in talking to media; in fact more so. Kejriwal speaks from his
heart; Modi from his politically polluted mind. On all counts, Kejriwal offers
a new deal; Modi just a lot of blabber.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
So, in right
earnest, the electoral battle has opened up three ways. The BJP will still do
well in the states of MP, Gujarat, Chhatisgarh and maybe a couple of other
states (Rajasthan mostly). The AAP will do reasonably<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>well in the urban areas….maybe winning 25-50
seats out of the 125 odd on offer in these parts. The Congress can expect to do
well in the rural areas all over; especially in areas dominated by the
underprivileged, the SCs, STs, Muslims etc where most of its energies have been
focused. The Congress will come down significantly from its 206 showing of the
last time, but it could still retain 150 odd seats. If that happens, its going
to be a widely split house…..</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
The Congress has an
opportunity to grab. It’s the only liberal party in the country (leaving the
Left for a moment). It has the most progressive stand on religious freedom; its
top positions are filled with people from all religions. It is also not in the
grip of any one dominant caste (unlike the BJP, which is ruled by the
Brahmins). Every section of the Hindu society finds representation in the
party. More importantly, the party is more in touch with today’s times, with
its bold stand on Sec 377 proving the point. The BJP on the other hand is still
stuck in 17<sup>th</sup> century orthodox Hindu mores. The Congress has also
been liberal with media, while the BJP’s attacks on Tarun Tejpal recently, Cobrapost
and others have shown signs of fascism.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
The Congress has to
overcome the perception of being corrupt. In this context, the recent moves of
Rahul Gandhi are important. Passing the Lokpal was purely Rahul Gandhi’s
victory. Had he not pushed it, nothing would have moved. Pushing 5 more
anti-corruption bills in Parliament in February is also part of the same
initiative. Whether he can convince people about his intentions or not, remains
to be seen. But if he could do that, he will bring the Congress back into
serious contention for power.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u>The real truth</u>
is that Modi’s prospects have been severely chopped by Kejriwal, making it a
3-way fight. The BJP is panicking, revealing its uncouth, fascist streak in the
process. Kejriwal is enjoying his honeymoon period. And the Congress is
silently recouping its energies to come back for one last fight. The battle for
2014 just got more interesting!</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-79029805111036754172013-12-30T18:48:00.000-08:002013-12-30T18:48:15.943-08:00AAP disappoints with free water announcement…..<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
The AAP made poll
promises that everyone knew were impossible to fulfil. But revolutionaries as
party members see themselves to be, the party has decided to deliver those
impossible promises, the impact on the government’s finances be damned. But
even in this, there is so much of a slip between the promise and the reality.
And though its too early to judge the newborn, its already looking like the AAP
would end up like just another political party – promising the earth and the
moon and delivering ordinary muck.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
The Delhi government
run now by AAP has made water free for the first 660 litres per person per day.
The announcement is worded in a way that generates positive vibes for the
party. The media – which loves AAP – has done what the AAP expected it to do:
gone to town praising the party’s announcement. “Master-stroke” one
particularly thrilled newspaper called it. “Fulfils promise” and “Delivers”
were the general refrain of all the others. But a closer scrutiny of the announcement
shows just how much of a “fraud” this announcement is:</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-left: 36.75pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.75pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.75pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span>The free water scheme is only for 3 months. Why only 3
months? No explanation has been given. Is it so that the government gets more
time to study its impact and can decide on the issue in a more permanent
manner? Or is it just playing to the galleries and will continue doing it till
the Lok Sabha elections?</div>
<div style="margin-left: 36.75pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.75pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.75pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span>The free water is only for those with “legal water
meters”. Now several Delhi experts have already pointed out that this condition
hurts the really poor sections of the population – the real aam aadmi as
against the middle-class “fake” aam aadmis who support the AAP. What is the
AAP’s plans for these really poor people? Will they supply 660 litres per day to
them via tankers? Again, a deafening silence on the issue. And remember this is
a party that is quick to talk to the media (including informing the public
about its leader’s “loose motions”!).</div>
<div style="margin-left: 36.75pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.75pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.75pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span>The bizarre concept that if you exceed 660 litres by
even 1 litre, you have to pay for the entire quantity, not just the incremental
litre. I understand the objective is to force people to cut down on wasteful
usage, but isn’t the methodology a little too harsh, almost draconian? Is this why
people find similarities between Kejriwal and Modi?</div>
<div style="margin-left: 36.75pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.75pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.75pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span>For those who do exceed the free quota, and thus have
to pay for the full quantity, the prices have been increased by 10% as decided
by Delhi Jal Board “earlier itself”. Now isn’t this is complete fraud? I
thought the AAP had promised that there would be no rate hike. I thought their
entire politics was that there was “rampant corruption” in DJB and by removing
corruption, the price hike would become unnecessary. But suddenly, the AAP has
gone with the previous government’s decision on rate hikes. Again, there is no
explanation provided for this. Has the experience of a few days in office shown
them that not everything was wrong with the previous government? In fact,
Minister of Health, Satyendra Jain has said that North Delhi dispensaries were
“in very good condition”. So is the party conceding that it raked up issues
which didn’t even exist?</div>
<div style="margin-left: 36.75pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.75pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.75pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span>The only possible explanation for the 10% hike is not a
very happy one, and is certainly going to cut into the party’s votes in the
near future. The party’s “ultra-left” positioning on economics – which compels
it to subsidize the poor on the one hand (or at least that’s what they aim for)
and increase tariffs for the middle-class and the rich on the other – is bound
to hurt the party’s core support base, which is the middle-class. If this
segment is going to see water tariffs rise, and a higher Sales Tax (as reported
over social media) for goods that it consumes, then it’s going to pull out
support from AAP rather soon. Idealism and all is fine, but when the shoe
starts to bite, its time to discard it!</div>
<div style="margin-left: 36.75pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.75pt; text-align: justify; text-indent: -18.75pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-list: Ignore;">6)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span>Most importantly, has the party found corruption in
DJB? If it’s not had the time to investigate it, why could it not just defer the
10% hike till it was completed. That investigation would hopefully find huge
corruption, and eliminating that corruption would make the hike unnecessary
right? In fact, maybe the water tariffs could actually go down by 10-30% if
that was the extent of corruption right? So what was the rush in accepting the
10% hike?</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
The AAP has also
made some truly silly and unexplainable announcements. If social media is to be
believed, the AAP will extend support to the opponents of Koodankulam. Why for
god’s sake? Is the AAP taking a stand that it is opposed to nuclear power? But
why?</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
The first week in
power has brought out other realities that are not very palatable. For example,
transferring senior bureaucrats from the DJB, the power ministry and the
finance ministry smacks of the Mayawati and Mulayam style of politics. “Searching
for honest officials” smacks of tainting the whole bureaucracy with the brush
of corruption. And one party member – Kumar Vishwas – going around from one TV
camera to another thumping his chest and challenging Modi and Rahul Gandhi to a
contest is plain arrogance. Kumar Vishwas is no Kejriwal and for him to throw
such challenges is foolish at best. It’s shocking that a party which vowed to destroy
political arrogance is getting smeared by it so quickly. Besides, most of the
party’s actions have been symbolic in nature – going to office by auto, opening
up the Secretariat to the general public disturbing work in the process,
shunning security even while Delhi remains on the radar of terrorists – and smack
of the kind of politics more associated with the Congress and BJP. In any case,
now that the party has started receiving members like Kamal Farooqui (ex SP)
and Alka Lamba (ex Congress), what is there to separate it from the rest? </div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u>The real truth</u>
is that the first week of the AAP government has been disappointing to say the
least. It’s unfair of course to judge them so soon, but at the very minimum one
expected them to become a little more mature. The free water announcement
without unearthing corruption, and without considering if it will really cover
all of Delhi or not, is particularly disappointing. They could have easily
waited for 2 weeks or more, unearthed huge corruption, and then made water
free. No one would have grudged them that extra time….but symbolism is all they
have indulged in. I seriously don’t know what to expect of them in the next 3
months. Much more populism, much more symbolism…..and perhaps, much more
stupidity as well.</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-14093346941582004942013-12-23T18:17:00.000-08:002013-12-23T18:17:08.862-08:00With Mumbai rally, Modi evolves from #feku to #compulsiveliar<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<br />
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Modi is a good
orator. In fact, many would argue that that’s probably all he is. In the early
days, when he made mistakes with historical facts, he earned himself the
twitter hashtag of #feku. But now with his mistakes continuing, and with the
intention behind those mistakes becoming clearer, it looks like he has earned
himself the #compulsiveliar title.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Lets be clear here.
Modi doesn’t give any interviews. He doesn’t respond to any questions from the
audience. He simply shoots and scoots. He says whatever he wants to say and
goes away. Its much like a movie – where an audience has no chance to
participate, and has to stay contented with a one-sided delivery (If I could
have, I would have stopped Aamir from the trash he dished out in Dhoom3!). And
just like a movie is made after many “takes”, one has to assume that Modi’s
speeches are written and re-written and practiced and re-practiced many times.
So when mistakes still remain, one has to conclude that they are intentional. And
the habit of lying is compulsive.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Take the really
silly mistake about how many CMs Maharashtra has had since 1960 and how many
Gujarat has had. Modi said Maharashtra has had 26 CMs while Gujarat has had
only 14. Now the truth is remarkably different. In reality, Maharashtra has had
17 “unique” individuals as CMs, spread over some 22 tenures. In contrast,
Gujarat has had 14 CMs spread over some 23 tenures. So how did he get his 14/26
numbers for Guj/Maha? Clearly, he chose to use “uniques” for Gujarat and “total
tenures” for Maharashtra! Why did he lie like this? A clue to this is in the
message he was trying to drive home. That in Maharashtra, the Congress
government has been useless (what else!)…..and every time a CM takes charge,
there is another neta waiting to oust him. It was with this political intention
that Modi made that mistake. A mistake that has to qualify as a knowing lie.
BTW, Modi probably didn’t realize but his alliance partner Shiv Sena wouldn’t be
too happy with this – in its little more than 4 year rule in Maharashtra, the
Shiv Sena had two CMs (Manohar Joshi & Narayan Rane)!</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Take the motor
vehicles tax issue where Modi said something about Maharashtra earning some Rs
400 odd crores while Gujarat – using technology – earned more than a thousand.
Impressive right? Except that Modi was lying again. Not with the figures this
time, but with the interpretation. The NCP quickly rebutted Modi’s argument. As
per NDTV.com “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Several vehicles from
Maharashtra carry goods to northern parts of India. All of these go through
Gujarat. Therefore the Motor Vehicle Tax that Gujarat collects is higher. On
the other hand, lesser number of vehicles come from Gujarat in Maharashtra.
Modi has wrongly interpreted this fact to present Gujarat positively</i>”.
Wrongly interpreted…..yes….but mistakenly or intentionally?</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Then this assertion
that the Central government, led by the Congress, had not given permission to
create some “big gates” on the Sardar Sarovar project for so many years…..and
that if it had done so, it would help Maharashtra get electricity worth some Rs
400 crores. Again, the NCP quickly rebutted this: “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Modi's allegation about not getting permission to place the gates of
Sardar Sarovar Project holds no ground. Since Madhya Pradesh has failed to
rehabilitate affected people, the permission for the gates is pending.
Therefore even we are deprived of electricity</i>”. Again, does this look like
an innocent mistake…..or an intentional lie???</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
The same story
played out with respect to Local body Tax (LBT)….which Modi branded (in his
unique style!) as “Loot Baantne ki Technique”. Catchy yes, but factual????
Hell, no! Here’s what the rebuttal issued by the NCP is “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The local body tax (LBT), whose implementation in Maharashtra Modi
opposed today, is not an exclusive feature of this state. All the states with
no octroi have LBT</i>”. This is what Wiki reports about LBT and Gujarat “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">LBT is not levied upon in the state of Gujarat.
The octroi was cancelled in 2007 and to compensate that, Value Added Tax (VAT)
was increased. However, as of April 2013, Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation (AMC)
was planning to add on a separate LBT apart from the current VAT structure</i>”.
Again, a big fat lie.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
So why is Modi
resorting to such big lies? In my mind, there is a simple explanation. Beneath
the clever exterior – PR driven no doubt –of the BJP’s PM candidate lies a very
very dumb interior. An interior that is largely illiterate, and very ignorant
of facts. Knowledge – or rather information – about subjects is shallow. This
is why Modi doesn’t engage in a dialogue, only a monologue. This is why Modi
walked out of an interview with Karan Thapar – the going got too tough and his
ignorance was getting exposed. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
As always happens
with shallow ignorant people, the external façade is fragile and needs to be
protected at all costs; else the interior would get exposed. Modi knows his strength
is his oratory, not his intelligence. He uses this fact to the hilt. He thus utters
complete lies with an absolute straight face, knowing his audience will lap it
up in complete trust. By the time the world gets to the truth, he and his
audience would have split, the political goal achieved. That is why the other
hashtag Modi has rightly earned for himself is #shamemodi.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u>The real truth</u>
is that Modi has evolved from #feku to #compulsiveliar, the way a small time crook
evolves from petty theft to daylight robbery to assault to much worse. Modi’s
lies are compulsive, which means that even he cannot control them. The reasons
for these lies are a) strategic & intentional (political rhetoric), b) ignorance
(we have enough evidence of that!) and c) in a large measure just an
uncontrollable penchant for lies. Vote for Modi. Vote for the compulsive liar!</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-31754212895236269402013-12-11T17:06:00.002-08:002013-12-11T17:06:26.249-08:00The BJP is opposed to homosexuality….<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Most of the major
political parties – including<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the
Congress, the Left and even the JD(U) – have come out against the SC verdict on
Section 377 of the IPC. But the TOI reports that the BJP has “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">mostly stayed mum</i>”. For a party that <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>loves rushing to the TV cameras at every small
opportunity, this silence speaks volumes about where it stands on social
issues.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Some of the
seniormost ministers in the UPA government made statements supporting the
rights of individuals to decide what they should do inside their bedrooms,
provided it was consensual. Kapil Sibal is reported as being in the mood to
change the law “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">i</i></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">t is the prerogative of the SC under the
Constitution to test the constitutionality of a law. They are exercising their
prerogative. We have the prerogative to make laws. We shall exercise our
prerogative</i>”. TOI reports Jairam Ramesh as saying “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">the SC ruling is retrograde and there should be no bar on relationships
between consenting adults of the same sex</i>”. Other ministers have chipped in
as well. The TOI reports “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Hours after the
verdict, MoS home R P N Singh tweeted, “In my personal opinion, the state
should not interfere in two consenting adults’ private lives.” In his official
response to the media, Singh said, “Manish Tewari has already clarified that
government intends to decriminalize Section 377</i>”.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Attorney General has also said that “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The
AG, G E Vahanvati, had argued that a group of ministers which looked into the
issue relating to the constitutionality of Section 377 IPC had recommended that
there was no error in the HC order. In other words, the government didn’t have
a problem with the decriminalization of gaysex</span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Likewise, Brinda Karat of the CPM and Shivanand Tiwari of
the JD(U) have reportedly called the ruling “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">retrograde</i>”. I would normally expect the CPM to take a progressive
stand on social issues, but even the JD(U)? That’s welcome. What about the main
opposition party, the one bearing the Hindutva flag? Well, like I wrote
earlier, the BJP has stayed “mostly mum”. Why has Arun Jaitley not commented on
this at all on his website? Why has Sushma Swaraj not taken a stand? Why is the
party’s PM candidate not speaking in favor of, or against, this issue that has
the liberal sections of the country up in a revolt? The fact is that the BJP
has always been retrograde on social issues, and this is just one more piece of
evidence.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Expectedly, Baba Ramdev, who is part and parcel of the BJP (remember
his spends on his speeches attacking the Congress were added to the BJP’s poll
spends by the Election Commission?), has said “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">I invite all homosexual brothers and sisters to come to Patanjali
Yogapeeth where they will be housed in separate rooms and taught yoga morning
and evening. Homosexuality is just a bad habit that’s hard to get rid of but
not impossible</i>”. “Bad habit” my foot. It’s just a matter of personal
choice. Equally, fundamentalist religious leaders have common the same page as
Ramdev and said pretty much the same thing. This includes the Shahi Imam of
Delhi’s Jama Masjid, who has called it a “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">disease
imported from Europe</i>”. Catholic Archdiocese spokesperson Father Dominic
Emmanuel said, “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Catholic church
respects people with different orientation, but does not accept same sex
marriage as it is against god’s plan</i>.” God’s plan? At the time God existed,
maybe people didn’t want to have gay sex. Society evolves right? But the
religious leaders stay in the dogmatic past.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
My point is that religious leaders are expected to behave in
a certain old fashioned way. Even large sections of the society will often
behave in the same way. But shouldn’t those with the powers to liberalize
society take a more progressive stand? Imagine what would happen if the media
also supported the SC’s view and wrote against individual preference and
choice? That would be disastrous for a society wanting to propel itself into
the future right? In the same way, shouldn’t our politicians take a more
determined and progressive stand on social issues? What if untouchability had
not been abolished until now? Wouldn’t that have made India a regressive
society? In the same way, why does the BJP not speak for a more progressive
society? A society in which matters of religion and belief are confined inside
the home, and a more progressive, more secular, attitude is professed outside? The
TOI reports that some 100+ countries have already allowed gay sex. Why then
does the BJP not attack the SC order?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Remember the allegations against Asaram Bapu about rape?
There also, Sushma Swaraj had merely said “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">the
law will take its own course</i>”. Why then did the BJP create such a ruckus
when the Tarun Tejpal case broke? Why does the BJP have such double standards?
Equally, Narendra Modi failed to act against Asaram Bapu when two boys were
found murdered in his Ashram. When it comes to sadhus and sants and regressive
views, the BJP is right at the forefront!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u>The real truth</u> is that the BJP has always been
socially regressive. It has always failed the young, the liberal, the more
progressive sections of society. It’s time it changed its dogmatic views….</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-82494130825419501302013-12-10T18:17:00.000-08:002013-12-10T18:17:05.716-08:00How Sanghis would attack Nilekani if he became Cong PM candidate!!!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">This is just wild
speculation at best; that Nandan Nilekani may be named the PM candidate of the
Congress. There is nothing reliable to indicate either that the party may break
its tradition of not naming a PM candidate in advance; nor is there any
indication that that person would be Nandan Nilekani. But just imagine…..if Nilekani
were indeed the chosen one….how would that rattle the Sanghis, and how would
they attack the party and Nilekani!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Knowing the BJP, its
first line of attack will be to chide Rahul Gandhi (its mortal bugbear!) as one
who finally acknowledges that he doesn’t have it in him to be PM. Nothing could
be further from the truth. The Gandhis have been quite nonchalant about grabbing
the PM’s position – remember how Sonia Gandhi shunned it when she had the
chance in 2004 (and when she had no reason to)? Remember also how Rahul Gandhi
called power poison? For Sanghis, who are desperate to grab power, such
selflessness is extremely worrisome. Remember the veritable civil war which
broke out within the party before Modi was anointed?! On the other hand, the
Congress is led by people who actively avoid the post! </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Then they would
attack Nilekani himself. He is just another “privileged” man who has earned
thousands of crores for himself under the “crony capitalism” fawned by the
Congress, or some such trash! Truth seldom matters for Modi and the BJP.
Because if it did, they wouldn’t push this line too much – Nilekani is a
self-made man, who relied on education, and believed in the potential of the
nation. He built Infosys from scratch. For a party like the BJP which believes
in demolishing everything (reputations, institutions, democracy itself with its
fascist style), such a merit-based growth story will be a threat to existence!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Then of course,
Sanghis would attack the UIDAI and Aadhar itself. There are so many glitches.
The cards are issued without verifying the identity of the person. They are
given even to non-citizens (even though, the purpose was never to make the card
a citizenship card!). This is a Congress attempt to regularize illegal
Bangladeshis staying in India! Blah blah blah! The tongues of BJP leaders – captured
eloquently in the twitter hashtag #Moditongue – would wag furiously, as they
would see their rare, and to be honest still remote, chance of dethroning the
Congress getting snatched out of their hands!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The BJP would also
attack Nilekani for “merely having led a company”, while Modi has run a “vast”
and “vibrant” state for more than 10 years. Strictly speaking, this is true.
But the one thing that Kejriwal has shown is that experience per se is
inadequate for winning a poll battle. Even good work is inadequate. Capturing
the imaginination of people – Nilekani’s “Imagining India” is after all a best
seller – is the most important thing. In Delhi, Sheila Dixit didn’t (at least
for the present), while Kejriwal did. And to be fair, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and
Raman Singh did as well, while the Congress’s leaders in those states didn’t.
If Modi attacked Nilekani on this line, it would explode in his face!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Imagine Modi v/s
Nilekani! It would be a case of amazing contrast! One an IIT engineer, the
other barely educated (at least in practical terms). One a modern man with personal
experience of technology; the other whose knowledge of technology is as fake
(#feku!) as everything else (most of his twitter following is fake)! One who is
respected around the world (a la Manmohan Singh); the other who is unwelcome in
the mecca of global power, the US! One who is clean as as whistle; the other
whose hands are bloodied by allegations of direct involvement in Gujarat’s
worst communal carnage. And lastly, one who is young, apolitical in the
conventional sense, liberal minded and a genuine doer while the other is much
older, a true-blue politician, a combination of fascism and extreme Hindutva
and one whose PR stories way more impressive than his actual achievements!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Is it even possible
that the Congress appoint Nilekani as its PM candidate? Of course it is. It has
done so in the past when it appointed Manmohan Singh. That got the party two
terms in office. The “family” has never craved power. If its not Nilekani, it
could well be Chidambaram….and like I have said earlier, Chidambaram has it in
him to blot out Modi. When I tweeted about Chidambaram being made PM candidate,
BJP trolls indulged in the kind of muck they are so accustomed to (after all,
the Lotus only blooms in mucky water, doesn’t it?!), saying even that Modi
would take off Chidambaram’s “lungi”! Such #Moditongue is inbred into all
Sanghis – almost like a joining oath!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Get this guys. Rahul
Gandhi would make a fine PM. He has the vision for India that is relevant for
the 21<sup>st</sup> and 22<sup>nd</sup> centuries. That of a liberal,
progressive, secular nation with equal rights to all (not only to the Hindus);
of a pluralistic democracy where divergent viewpoints are welcome (and not a
fascist state which attacks anyone with a different view; this is why the BJP
can never understand why the divergent views of a Mani Shankar Aiyer are
welcomed by the Congress, not muted out!), and a nation in which every last
person grows (and not merely the urban middle-to-upper classes). Rahul Gandhi
can become PM whenever he wants. But he’s also very happy to remain Party Pres
and work on organization development (how many BJP leaders would do this? Would
Modi become his party pres if he lost the PM elections?!). He could easily hand
over the top job to someone else. The Congress has always been comfortable with
a “dual power structure”…..something the BJP simply cannot get!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The real truth</span></u><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> is that if Nilekani was to be named
Congress’s PM candidate – and there is no indication of this as yet – the BJP
and specifically its “messiah” (in whose name the hashtag #Moditongue has been
coined) and his supporters would go into mudslinging of the order not seen yet.
Suddenly, Modi – an old school, fascist, minority-basher – will become the
BJP’s biggest liability. Bring it on, I say!</span></div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-27893552096602631962013-12-09T19:01:00.002-08:002013-12-09T19:01:34.461-08:00A re-election in Delhi will improve Congress’s tally….<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
The BJP and AAP are behaving irresponsibly. The AAP is doing
what people have by now come to expect of it – be extremely inflexible. We
first saw this during Anna’s movement in which the outfit’s stand on the Jan
Lokpal Bill was simply “my way or the highway”. The BJP, for reasons that are
not difficult to understand, is acting coy about forming the government. If it
wants to, it has enough arsenal (dirty tricks, cash, inducements) to do so. Both
parties are publicly claiming that a re-election will give them a clear mandate.
In my opinion, anything but this is what the re-elections will give.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Both parties – and almost all political pundits – were
hugely surprised by the drubbing the Congress got in the last elections. Forget
their macho stance now, but none was willing to bet his money on such an
outcome. The results have been “too good” for the AAP and a “face saver” for
the BJP after its very visible internal scuffles. Their surprise victory has
made both a little smug. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Will the Congress get more seats in a re-election? Without
doubt. The people of Delhi were obviously very angry and hence cast their votes
the way they did. Now that they’ve vented their anger, their more balanced and
thoughtful mind will come into play. Already they are reading comments in
media, even from known Congress baiters, that Sheila Dixit transformed Delhi in
the last 15 years. They are also seeing that just a few days into power, and an
AAP MLA has already been charged with molestation charges. As far as the BJP is
concerned, it must be really worried about a re-election. For whatever he is
worth, Modi cannot enact another rescue act. He’s exhausted his entire arsenal
of hollow rhetoric. How can he repeat the same rubbish again? And now the BJP
knows – the big rallies do not translate into votes! The last time around, it
ended up becoming a BJP-AAP fight; this time, it will be a more regular
three-cornered fight. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If reelections were to happen, the Congress would probably
field a new leader. People are now saying that Ajay Maken would have made a
better choice. He’s suave and competent, and well connected to the grassroots. A
change of leader will also help assuage the feelings of the voters. Also, a few
bold announcements by the Congress – like concrete steps to stem the price rise,
and an honest admission of it’s past mistakes, will help douse the people’s
anger further. In their own hearts, the people of Delhi know their city has
seen the maximum growth under Congress – be it in terms of GDP, jobs, real
estate, infrastructure, whatever – and they realize their anger was overdone.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Congress lost some 15% or more votes from 2008 levels.
If it regains just a third of these, it will be in the reckoning for power all
over again. This is not just the fantasy of a Congress supporter, but cold poll
logic. After punishing Indira Gandhi in 1977 for the emergency, they elected
her back with a thumping majority in 1980. Would they have done it earlier if
they had had the chance? No doubt they would have, for in their hearts, they
always liked her. But the Janata Party was practical enough – unlike AAP and
the BJP in Delhi – and it formed the government under Morarji Desai and later,
Charan Singh. That government survived under three years, but it denied Indira
Gandhi a continuity of term. If AAP and BJP don’t remember this lesson, the
Congress is going to be very happy!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Now that the anger is off, people are also realizing that
neither the AAP nor BJP can deliver on the bizarre promises they have made. How
will they bring down electricity rates by 30% (BJP) and 50% (AAP)? A report in
ET shows that Delhi electricity tariffs are already lower than Mumbai’s or
Kolkata’s or Bangalore’s <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">(<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">http://tinyurl.com/pnso385).</span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> Of course, the two parties can fulfil their
promise for a while, like the BJP government did in Goa by bringing down petrol
costs to some bizarre levels, but that will ruin the state’s economy, like
happened in Goa. People expect politicians to make tall promises, but they also
know that those promises are pretty much forgotten after every election. It’s
not for such promises that people vote for them. It is not that they expect the
next party to be better. It is only to teach the ruling party a lesson. It is
only to smother its smugness. It is only to reassert their own authority over
the parties. Once that’s happened, they repeat this process, in most cases,
reinstating the old party back in power. We’ve seen this happen repeatedly in
Rajasthan, Punjab, UP, TN and so many more states. There is no reason to
believe that Delhiites won’t behave the same way. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">One thing that the
hung assembly has brought out painfully (again) for the BJP is that no one
wants to align with it. Neither the Congress (because they find the BJP
communal), nor the AAP (because they find the BJP corrupt)…..and not even the
JD(U) which has one MLA in Delhi (because they find the BJP unreliable as a
friend)! If this same thing plays out nationally in 2014, the BJP has had it.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The BJP and the AAP
think they will ruin their reputation by taking over just a few months before
the general elections. The BJP is particularly worried about this, knowing from
experience that the honeymoon periods are getting shorter. One misstep and that
could cost them enormously in the general elections. So its best to stay out.
But the BJP hasn’t calculated that the pendulum (the public mood) could swing
the other way, now that the anger is off.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The real truth</span></u><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> is that the people of Delhi have vented, and
if they are called to vote again, chances are the fight will be three-cornered,
instead of a straight BJP-AAP one. BJP/AAP should keep that in mind. Not taking
over just a few months before the general elections may appear to be good
strategy, but it could badly misfire….</span></div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-39881874303767780752013-12-08T18:02:00.000-08:002013-12-08T18:02:40.585-08:00Congress gets drubbing. But Modi magic fails too….<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div class="MsoNormal">
Has the Congress got a drubbing? Without doubt. Even a
die-hard supporter of the party will admit that much. But has the party been “demolished”
and “decimated”, and has India become “Congress mukt” as BJP leaders were
gushing to say yesterday? Hardly. Every political party goes through ups and
downs and this is just one more of those moments. Give it time, and the
Congress will bounce back. Provided it learns its lessons.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For the lessons are aplenty. There is a serious
communication gap for starters. This communication gap has created the
impression that the Congress is the most corrupt party. It made a mess of the
2G and Coal issues by failing to communicate better. Both those “scams” started
and/or continued under several dispensations including the BJP, but the people
held<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> only</i> the Congress responsible.
When the party finally spoke up in the Birla matter, it was able to control the
fall-out quickly. Had it shown the same gusto in defending its 2G “low license
fee” policy (mobile penetration increased from 250 million in 2004 to 900
million now primarily because of this), or put up the same fight in the coal
matter (it was the Congress that switched to auctions; the BJP had continued
with the flawed screening committee system), it would not have seen this day. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Why is it that the Congress’s leaders do not communicate
with the public? Why don’t Rahul and Sonia speak more? And what about the
senior ministers – Chidambaram (who can cut Modi to size), or Salman Khursheed (who
polished off the arbitrary scam charges against his NGO) or Kapil Sibal (who
first, and correctly, propounded the zero-loss line of defence in 2G) or
Antony<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(of impeccable honesty) or Jayanthi
Natarajan (who combines grace with an ability to mount spirited attacks) and so
many more heavyweights? Why is it light-weights like Manish Tewari and Abhishek
Manu Singhvi and Shashi Tharoor or the backroom boys like Sanjay Jha and Rajeev
Gowda who speak on behalf of the party? The Congress has simply not understood
the importance of the media….and PR.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Congress also needs to learn that more than its socialist
policies, it is inflation that matters the most to people. For sad as the
reality is, people count their rising bills more carefully than their rising
incomes. No one has been as well off ever as today, and yet everyone complains
about rising bills. I look at well-to-do professionals and they too complain, even
though their incomes have been rising faster! The Congress has to control
inflation immediately. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Congress has NOT been decimated anywhere except in Delhi
(and even here it will bounce back in time). For a party to be decimated, it’s
vote share should come down dramatically, but what do we find? The Congress’s
vote share has actually <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">increased</i> in
MP by 4% (32.4 to 36.4%) and 1.7% in Chhatisgarh (38.6 to 40.3). In Rajasthan,
its vote share has dropped by just about 4% (though its seats loss has been
massive) which is hardly dramatic. It is only in Delhi where the Congress has been
“decimated”, with its vote share dropping by some 15% or more. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The BJP has obviously done extremely well, especially in
terms of the margins of victory in MP and Rajasthan. But Modi has failed. If Modi
had swung votes for his party, we would have seen a rise in its vote share in
Chhatisgarh far higher than the 0.7% it managed (40.3 to 41%). And in Delhi,
the party would have fared much better. In reality, the BJP’s vote share
actually dropped in Delhi. How strange that so many “lacs” came out to hear
Modi, but then went out and voted for the AAP! The BJP was counting so heavily on
Modi that its poll-day ads featured Modi most prominently. And yet he couldn’t
swing it for the party. Modi’s impact was felt only in Rajasthan, where the BJP
won an unprecedented 82% of all seats. Even in MP, Modi’s impact is not visible…..BJP’s
vote share increase of 7% odd was largely Uma Bharati’s votes coming back to
the parent party (she fought independently last time). The most extreme Hindus
who had migrated to her went back to the slightly-less-rabid BJP. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If Modi’s magic was less than impressive in the BJP’s strongest
states, what can he be happy about? His presence in Karnataka just six months
back hadn’t done anything for his party either. Modi’s been as much of a damp
squib as Rahul Gandhi has been. Only because his party has done well in this
round, he will survive drawing major attention to his failure. This is again
symptomatic of the strength of the BJP and the weakness of the Congress – its ability
to communicate. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What’s the prognosis for the national elections. Well, the
Congress is certainly on its way out, unless it does something drastic. The
first thing it must do is recognize that this is a vote against the central
government, not the states. Both Delhi and Rajasthan governments had done well,
and they still lost. The people wanted to punish Sonia and Rahul, not Gehlot
and Dixit. Once it recognizes this, it must start to fix its leadership issue. Clearly,
Rahul needs more time. Sonia needs to take command for at least 5 more years. She
should prop Chidambaram up as the PM candidate. He is competent, and decisive,
and can take on the BJP any time. The only glitch is that he doesn’t speak much
Hindi. The Congress could also announce a Rahul-Chidambaram combination with
Chidambaram being projected as the PM and Rahul becoming party chief. Contrary
to what many think, I don’t believe the dual-power-center model has failed. If
it had failed, UPA-2 would never have happened.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u>The real truth</u> is that the Congress has got a
drubbing alright, but it has been “decimated” only in Delhi. The BJP has done
on expected lines in MP, Chhatisgarh and Rajasthan. Its huge win in Rajasthan
will be a morale booster. But the BJP has squandered its opportunity in Delhi.
Worse, Modi’s hollow bluster has been exposed….. </div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-61536396385255960482013-12-05T21:01:00.002-08:002013-12-05T21:01:58.115-08:00Biggest joke – sensex rises because of exit polls!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The biggest joke in today’s papers – obviously propagated by
APCO and its newly-discovered partner Huffington Post (!) – was that the sensex
was up because the BJP was doing well in the exit polls. Nothing could be far
from the truth. I will explain why in very simple, and logical terms (hence
might be difficult for BJP supporters to digest!).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.75pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.75pt; text-indent: -18.75pt;">
<span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span><u>Always expected to do well</u>: The BJP was always
expected to do well in MP and Chhatisgarh. If anything, there might be a shock
for the BJP in Chhatisgarh, where the exit polls are indicating a wafer-thin
win for the party. And if the polls are right, the Congress’s vote share % is
expected to actually increase by 1% or so. At best, the BJP will retain
Chhatisgarh with a smaller margin. In MP, the BJP will win because it has
completely saffronized the state, just like it has Gujarat. Apart from these
two states, the BJP was expected to win Rajasthan, considering that the state
has never returned the same party to power in the last 20 years. The only state
where the BJP could have expected to do really well was in Delhi, where the
biggest protests against the UPA were held. But from the exit polls, it looks
like the BJP has made a hash out of Delhi. At best, it may emerge as the
largest party, but it wont be strong enough to form a government on its own. Is
this the “pleasant surprise” the stock markets received, in response to which
the sensex rose?!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.75pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.75pt; text-indent: -18.75pt;">
<span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span><u>BJP’s best states</u>: These states reflected the
absolute stronghold of the BJP (the only other state being Gujarat). Take away
these states and what does the BJP have left? It is a junior partner in Punjab,
its chances in Bihar and UP are highly suspect, and it does not even have a
presence in South India (with or without Yeddy). Just because it is expected to
do well in these states gives no hopes (to BJP supporters) that it will do well
nationally. In fact, if AAP does well in Delhi, it will again show that the
regional parties, not the BJP, will do better. Is this what the stock market got
excited by?!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.75pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.75pt; text-indent: -18.75pt;">
<span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span><u>Hardly the semifinal</u>: A mail from former
colleague and current Edelweiss employee Abneesh Roy gives the following views
from the market:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; tab-stops: list 1.0in; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-list: Ignore;">a.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span>The
recent State Elections accounted for only 13% of total Lok Sabha seats (72 of
the 543 seats).<span style="color: #0f218b;"> </span>There is still a big battle
ahead to be fought. In 2003 also in the States of MP, Rajasthan and
Chattisgarh, BJP had a 3-0 victory but they lost the National Election.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; tab-stops: list 1.0in; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-list: Ignore;">b.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span>BJP
has presence only in 330 seats out of a total of 543 seats, it lacks a
nation-wide presence and hence its alliance making capability is very
important. It has negligible presence in 30% of the Lok Sabha seats – these are
the big states of West Bengal, AP, Tamil Nadu, Orissa and Kerala . BJP is also
relative to Congress not so strong in the rural constituencies which account
for ~63% of Lok Sabha Seats.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; tab-stops: list 1.0in; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-list: Ignore;">c.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span>The
importance of UP - this is a very big State, it accounts for 14.7% of
total Lok Sabha seats. Congress is not dominant here but the two regional
parties SP and BSP will pose significant challenges to a BJP victory. Caste
here dominates far more than Modi’s governance placard.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; tab-stops: list 1.0in; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span style="mso-list: Ignore;">d.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span><u>Finally
how relevant are the polls</u> ? Historically we have seen that Opinion polls
and Exit polls tend to give similar results but the final result can be very
different. This was the case in both 2004 and 2009 elections. Hence, as our
political analyst says ‘’dont count your chickens before they hatch”. While
Modi wave is very strong and BJP may emerge as the single largest party in the
general elections (consensus number is 160 seats) , there is conviction as yet
whether they will get enough majority to form a government.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
Does this look like the kind of
mail an excited brokerage would send to its clients?!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.75pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.75pt; text-indent: -18.75pt;">
<span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span><u>Markets discount the future</u>: It’s common
knowledge that the markets discount the future. The biggest event of 2014 is
the general elections. Is there any more certainty about a stable government
then, based on these exit polls? Again, even assuming the BJP tops these
assembly polls, does the market believe that that will affect the general
elections? Only the absolutely gullible can believe that; definitely not the
rationale stock punters!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.75pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.75pt; text-indent: -18.75pt;">
<span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5)<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span><u>Hardly a rise</u>: The stock market has still not
retained the highs hit a few weeks back. Today, its already showing weakness,
up as it is by just 40 odd points. The Japanese Nikkei in the meantime is set
to test its all time high of 10000, and by the way, the Japanese King and Queen
are not even meeting Modi! Also, the Karachi stock market has risen by twice as
much as India today, so is that because Modi’s influence extends to Pakistan?! </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u>The real truth</u> is that BJP’s expansive PR machinery –
on which hundreds of crores of rupees are reportedly spent – is the one that’s
fuelling the PR stories on Modi. This is astute PR, but as with everything
Modi, this also is a lot of rubbish! The stock markets are strong because of
strong policy action by Chidambaram and the Cabinet’s project clearances, the
containment of the fiscal deficit and capital account deficit, and the
bottoming out of the Indian economy….</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-64140952518886184052013-12-04T18:48:00.002-08:002013-12-04T18:48:21.586-08:00Exit polls should be on entertainment channels!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div class="MsoNormal">
I was a little surprised to hear over TV last night that an
exit poll involves going to the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">homes</i>
of respondents and asking them who they voted for. I was under the impression
that voters leaving polling booths were intercepted immediately after they had
voted and made to vote again in a dummy exit-poll-booth. Done this way, it
would be a fairly accurate process. But apparently that’s not the case. Explaining
this, Rajdeep Sardesai declared honestly that his channel would only be able to
put out the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">final</i> exit poll numbers by
8 pm Thursday (since visiting voter homes takes time). The other channels did
not even bother to issue this clarification! </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This methodology of exit polls explains why it is
practically impossible to forecast the final outcomes accurately. Going to voter
homes is difficult and costly. Can surveyors actually go into the homes of the
rural folks, the urban poor, the SCs and STs, and in the case of Chhatisgarh,
the Naxal dominated areas? I say “practically impossible”, because it’s not a
technical impossibility, but only a commercial one. No TV channel expends
enough money to do surveys accurately. This is why almost all of them go so
wrong. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Take the 2009 general elections, when exit polls were
broadcast on TV on 13<sup>th</sup> May. Polls were conducted by CNN-IBN, Times
Now, Headlines Today, India TV-C-voter, NewsX, Star News-Nielson, Zee Business,
UTVI, News24 and NDTV. The average of these polls for the NDA was about 200 and
for the UPA, about the same. What the final result was is well known, in fact,
much better than anyone expected giving the UPA a conclusive win (source: tweet
from PM’s media advisor, Pankaj Pachauri). If the exit polls were conducted
correctly, why did they not pick up the “wave” for the Congress? </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In fact, some have argued that given the Congress’s
rural/poor support base, exit polls typically give it 20-25% lesser seats than
it finally gets. Likewise, the more urban focused NDA gets a higher score by
the same quantum. Such poll errors are not limited to the Congress and BJP
alone. They affect all parties that are in rural-heavy states. In 2012 in UP
for example, DNA (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">http://tinyurl.com/lmxw3nf</span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">) reported, “</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Except for two,
all the exit polls predicted a hung assembly in Uttar Pradesh with Samajwadi
Party on top but the results showed that the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led party
romped home with a thumping majority</i>”. Such is the reputation of these
polls that DNA quotes then Election Commission Chief SY Qureshi in the same
article as tweeting “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">opinion and exit
polls should at best be on entertainment channels</i>”!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The serious flaws in these exit polls is visible in the
forecasts made for the AAP in Delhi this time, with one poll (ORG-India Today)
giving the party just 6 seats, and another (Chanakya) giving it 31. All these
polls claim to have statistical errors of around 3% or so. If that is so, then
how come there is such a wide variance? </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And even if one goes by the 3% error, that can wreak havoc
on the forecasts. The biggest voting % difference between the BJP and Congress,
as predicted by the exit polls, is in MP and Rajasthan, but its only 5%. A 3%
correction one way for the Congress, and the other way for the BJP, can hand over
victory to the Congress in both these states. The gap between the two parties
in Chhatisgarh is just 1%, and no one should have any doubts about the uncertainty
of the poll results in this state. Ditto with Delhi, where the vote shares are
too close to allow making any prediction. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Then there is this other problem about converting vote
shares to seat shares, an exercise which involves estimating the
“concentration” of votes. A 1% lead for the BJP over the Congress in
Chhatisgarh for example, if uniformly spread across the state, is enough to
give the party a clean sweep. On the other hand, the 5% in MP and Rajasthan may
only give it a marginal lead. How then do these media outlets speak with such
authority on the basis of these polls? A news channel yesterday, with a known
rightist bias, went so far as to make its headlines sound as if they were based
on final outcomes, dropping even the caveat of them being based merely on exit
polls! Exit polls may be good content strategy for TV channels, but for
politicians, psephologists, political analysts and media pundits to engage in
3-4 hour long, highly intellectualized debates is plain stupidity!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
All this is not to say that the Congress is not doing poorly
in these four major states. It is. In MP, the Congress has no chance, with the
state having been completely saffronized (like Gujarat) over the last 10 years
(so saffronised that people don’t mind the huge corruption, law & order and
other problems). In Rajasthan as well, known for its “flip-flop” pattern of
electing governments, the Congress will likely lose. What is important to see
however is what happens in Delhi and Chhatisgarh. For the Congress, wresting
Chhatisgarh will be a big morale booster. With respect to Delhi, it will be an
acceptable outcome if either it emerges at the top or if the BJP doesn’t come
at the top. Half this battle is about the Congress winning; the other half
about the BJP losing!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Honestly, the Congress should not worry too much about these
poll results, no matter how they go. In 2003, the same pattern had been
observed – the BJP won MP, Chhatisgarh and Rajasthan (but not Delhi). Yet they
were trumped in the General elections of the 2004. This is not an exact
analogy, since the central government then was the BJP’s and this time it is
the Congress’s. But still, six months is a long time in Indian politics, and
the Congress can still make a recovery. A few bold and innovative moves and the
sentiment could shift. The sentiment against the Congress will also drop, if it
is seen as having been punished already. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One last point. The BJP knows not to trust these exit polls.
That is why its spokespeople were not willing to say if they would attribute
the results to Narendra Modi. What if they lose Chhatisgarh, and don’t emerge
as winners in Delhi?! Likewise, the Congress was unwilling to credit Rahul
Gandhi with the outcomes of these polls. Quite clearly, the political parties
know the polls are unreliable!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u>The real truth</u> is that what former CEC SY Qureshi
said about the entertainment nature of exit and opinion polls. Rather than
featuring on news channels, they should be carried on entertainment channels.
But then, if this principle were followed, most of the content of the news
channels would end up being on entertainment channels!</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-87948639895273233422013-12-03T19:11:00.000-08:002013-12-03T19:11:25.310-08:00Why Delhi must vote for the Congress today….<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
One simple reason. Over the last 15 years, the city has been
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">totally</i> transformed. It is much
closer to being a world city today than it was 15 years ago when Sheila Dixit
stepped in. It boasts of world class infrastructure – a global standards metro,
India’s best airport, wide roads, airconditioned buses, well kept parks,
uninterrupted power supply, large number of jobs…..need we go further?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Are there problems the city faces? Of course there are. But
the kind of problems that are listed by the BJP and AAP are themselves an
acknowledgment of the progress that Delhi has achieved. The power bills are too
high say both….but neither says that power cuts are a problem (something that
was a perpetual problem in Delhi). There is too much traffic they say,
acknowledging that economic prosperity has led to a surfeit of cars (and this
in spite of the metro ferreting more than 2 million passengers every day). It
takes 2 hours to go from Gurgaon to Noida, they cry, accepting that the city/NCR
has grown so much that it has made the entire NCR come to life. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And what is driving all this growth? A solid economy. Over
the last 10 years, the Delhi government has delivered a near (or over) 10% annual
GSDP growth. This is probably the highest amongst major states (Yes, Delhi is a
major state considering its economy is more than Punjab’s and Haryana’s),
definitely better than the APCO-propped Gujarat’s. Today, the most job creation
happens in the NCR, thanks to booming IT/BPO/Manufacturing/Hospitality/Construction
sectors. Today, most MNCs prefer to settle in Delhi, not Mumbai. Today, most
construction happens in Delhi, not Mumbai or Pune. Since the last census in
2001, Delhi’s population has also soared past Mumbai’s. Delhi is today the most
buzzing of all cities in India….</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What is the AAP promising really? That it will cut
electricity bills by 50%. Does it have a plan for this? No. It does have a lot
of rhetoric though. The party acknowledges that electricity wastage (T&D
losses) has been cut from 40%+ fifteen years back to barely 15% now. In fact,
it uses this achievement to demand that the savings that have so accrued be
passed on to the people. Well, this presumes that the savings are not getting
used effectively; that maybe someone is pocketing them. Do they have anything
to support this? Nada. Will the AAP reduce prices if elected. It will have to, considering
it is their main poll plank, but what it will do to Delhi’s power situation is
obvious. A look Goa, where the BJP reduced petrol prices to Rs 50 odd levels,
should be evidence of that. With drastically reduced tax collections, the state’s
economy has been devastated.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The AAP also promises that the Rs 400 crore surplus in Delhi
Jal Board will be distributed amongst the people in the form of free water. Who
will tell the AAP that if all profits are distributed, there will be nothing
left for investments? Does he not know what problems the Indian Railways faces
because of the exact same reason (prices were not increased for nearly 10
years…..).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What are the other issues the AAP stands for? A highly
unconvicing position on the Lokpal (actually Lok Ayukta). Unconvincing because
most knowledgeable commentators today acknowledge that another watchdog in the
form of a Lok Ayukta will not curb corruption. Better systems, less
discretionary powers, more realistic laws, more usage of technology and more
competition will. But is there a plan for all this? At least I haven’t heard
so. For anything on corruption, there is just one mantra. Lok Ayukta. Bizarre.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The BJP is a complete write-off in Delhi. The party that
chooses to anoint its leaders before the elections could finalize its leader
only a few days before the elections. Was this delay because the party has a
huge number of eligible leaders? Nah….because if that was the case, it wouldn’t
have relied on its national leaders to campaign on its behalf. The reality is
that the BJP is a badly divided house in Delhi. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The BJP clearly looks like the B-team of the AAP. If there
is a strong opponent of the Congress, it has to be the AAP. The only advantage
that the BJP has over the AAP is that it is perhaps better organized, being a
much older party. The party cadres also appear to have been energized by Modi. Will
this swing the vote towards the BJP? I doubt it.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If performance should be rewarded, then the Congress
deserves to win. But are there other issues that will harm its chances? It’s
possible, but its surely not a certainty. On corruption, the BJP’s double
standards on the Lokpal issue are well known. Its corruption standards are
comparable to the Congress’s. On women’s issues, if Delhi is the rape capital
amongst the metros, BJP ruled MP is at the national level. Is anyone saying
that the BJP will lose MP because of this? Also, considering most rapes take
place inside homes, and by people known to the victim, is it really possible to
lay the blame on the government? In other words, can a change of government
help reduce rapes? I’m not sure. What can reduce this shame drastically is
stronger laws (which the Congress has enacted), an alert media (which we have a
lot of!), and a huge change in the mindsets of people (which is bound to happen
given the previous two points). </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What the Congress really suffers from is poor communications.
The Congress has no match for Modi when it comes to delivering speeches (even
though those speeches are full of errors, lies and more!). Most people I have
discussed the 2G scam with for instance agree that the CAG report was vastly
exaggerated; but they also say that the Congress did little to defend its
position. Ditto on the coal scam. In politics, a party that cannot communicate suffers.
If the Congress loses Delhi, it will not be for a poor performance record; it
will be for a really poor communications record.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u>The real truth</u> is that the Congress has done wonders
for Delhi, making it India’s numero uno in development, infrastructure, jobs
creation, education…..and much more. It has set a benchmark for other cities to
follow. No other government could have achieved as much. I hope the people of
Delhi remember this when they go to vote today….</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-61659481692181288452013-11-29T19:11:00.002-08:002013-11-29T19:11:36.690-08:00Tejpal issue heaviliy politicized by BJP….<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Not for a moment am I passing judgment on Tarun Tejpal. Not
for a moment am I suggeseting that the girl who complained is lying. Not for a moment
am I saying that we should go light on Tejpal. Given the lynch mob conditions
that exist in the country today, how dare I? But may I please suggest that the
first principle of justice in any civilized society – that one is presumed
innocent unless proven guilty – be adhered to? I know the elections are around,
and the BJP desperately wants to prop up its image, but can the party please
follow at least this basic principle of justice?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For it appears that the BJP’s interest in the Tejpal case is
more political than anything else. There could be several reasons for this. The
most obvious one of course is that Tejpal’s outfit, Tehalka, had made life
quite a mess for the NDA government back in the days when Bangaru Laxman was
party president and George Fernandes the Defence Minister. If I remember right,
the NDA had also banned Tehalka (or was planning to) for a while. Thereafter
when the UPA came to power, it gave Tehelka relief. Whether that makes Tejpal a
“congress stooge” or not is for people to decide. But for the BJP, it is
understably a good chance to get even. As evidence of how much relief the party
is experiencing comes from the fact that even Laxman, who had become a recluse,
decided to make that rare appearance on TV, attempting a shot at cleansing his
name. Even if Tejpal was a Congress stooge, was that video that nailed Laxman fake?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Another major reason for the BJP to blow up the Tejpal case,
and few have commented on this, is that this was a good way to deflect the
spotlight from Modi’s snoopgate. The issue had dominated the channels and
newspapers for several days, and didn’t seem to be dying down. The Gujarat
government had been forced to set up a 2-member probe panel (whatever happened
to the party’s usual preference for “independent” probes, outside of
governmental control?). The issue had united the opposition and media alike.
Suddenly, Modi was on the back foot, refusing to comment on it (as on any other
sticky matter). For the BJP to save its PM candidate, some distraction had to
be found. What a handly issue Tejpal’s was.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I am not at all saying that Tejpal’s issue was <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">created</i> by the BJP. Of course it wasn’t.
But it was grabbed and tossed sky high by it. That’s why its Goa CM took so
much personal interest, getting a usually lazy police force to work overtime. That’s
why it chose to ignore the thousands of rape cases that take place every year
in MP and the thousands more of attacks on women in Gujarat, but focused on
this one instead. That’s why it staged dharnas outside Goa airport where Tejpal
was to arrive, and defaced former Managing Editor, Shoma Chaudhary’s name plate
outside her house. That’s why it has taken such an aggressive stance as to try
to link the Congress somehow to Tejpal, even accusing a central minister
(unnamed, but well known to all) of somehow being involved (the minister has
denied he owns any shares; and that he only loaned the publisher some Rs 5 lacs
or so and that too way back when it was founded). And that’s why it used its
widely spread (but questionable given the recent Cobrapost scam on this?)
social media clout to prejudge the matter and pronounce its opponents guilty.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If the BJP’s keen interest had not been there, could the
Tejpal issue have occupied front pages of newspapers and prime times on TV for
so long? Tejpal may have been a prominent journalist, but that’s all he was. He
wasn’t a senior politician, or a constitutional authority, or even a
high-profile celebrity. There are hundreds of prominent journalists like him.
He is probably right when he alleges that he is being hounded by the BJP. The
Aarushi judgment made for far more relevant content, but because there was no
political angle to it, it died a quick death.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Besides, can we please cast one slight glance at the fact
that Tejpal hasn’t even been tried yet. And that he may not be guilty, even if
that seems improbable? What we must ensure is that he doesn’t get away using his
political connections. But apart from that, we cannot pre-judge him. We cannot
pronounce him guilty. We cannot let our anger get ahead of us. This kind of
“lynch mob” mentality doesn’t augur well for us. And yet, we’re displaying it
repeatedly. A lot of media attacked the judgment on the Aarushi case for
example. A lot of grief will similarly be directed at retired SC judge Justice
Ganguli now, riding on the presumption of his guilt. Can we please await a
final judgment before doing this?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Not only this, we’re actually getting extremely vicious as
well. A panelist on TV appeared to be preempting a possible acquittal of Tejpal
in the future by saying that if that happened, that would mean he used his
clout, or that the Congress helped him. This is unfair. This makes the
prejudgment final. This makes India like Afghanistan and our systems
Talibanesque. What if Tejpal is indeed innocent? What if the woman journalist
made a false accusation? Don’t believe she could have? Think again. Remember
the SC recently ruled that article 498(A) – introduced in the ‘80s to protect
women from dowry harassment – has been mostly misused by women (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">http://tinyurl.com/patzf5e)?</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u>The real truth</u> is that Tejpal is at least partly, a
victim of politics. He may be guilty, but he’s not being given a fair chance.
He is being pre-judged. The BJP’s interest in him is disproportionate with his
stature. What is worrying is that this indicates a vindictive attitude the
party has towards those in media who don’t support it. If Cobrapost’s latest
sting on social media involves Modi in any way (and we don’t know it does yet),
then it will possibly be targeted next. This is what is so worrying about the
BJP’s interest in Tejpal. It’s indicative of fascism….</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-30299169326264830232013-11-19T18:54:00.002-08:002013-11-19T18:54:33.163-08:0093K phone tappings in 6 months? Gujarat has become a police state….<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<br />
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
This is what I was really
worried about. Apparently, the snooping on the girl in Gujarat was not a lone
case. Firstpost.in reports (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">http://tinyurl.com/pwgoscr)</span></i><b> </b><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">that as many as 93000 illegal mobile phone
tappings took place in just six months in Gujarat between Dec 2012 and May
2013. Phone tappings may be a less severe form of surveillance than physical snooping
itself, but surely there is a worrisome story here.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Firstpost.in adds “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">reports
now say phone tapping has been rampant in Gujarat, with a DGP discovering this
year that as many as 93,000 mobile phones’ call data records had been obtained
without his knowledge since December 2012</i>”. The web publisher further
reports “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">A report in The Hindustan Times
says agencies such as the Gujarat Police, the IB, the Anti-Terror Squad and the
Crime Branch are all routinely conduct illegal surveillance, either for
investigations or at the instance of their political bosses. The extent of
snooping is so pervasive that Gujarat’s director general of police Amitabh
Pathak (now deceased) was shocked to learn in May that his own police officials
had obtained call detail records of as many as 93,000 mobile phone numbers
without his knowledge since December 2012</i>”. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Referring to the same report, Firstpost.in writes further “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The report also quotes from an affidavit
filed by former IPS officer RB Sreekumar before the Justice Nanavati Commission
probing the 2002 riots case in which he states that he was asked to rap the
phones of BJP leader Haren Pandya and Congress leader Shankersingh Vaghela</i>”.
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Firstpost.in then refers to a report in the TOI (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">http://tinyurl.com/pyng6hc)</span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> “</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">This
report in the Times of India published in 2005 quotes BJP MLA Gordhan Zadaphia
complaining about the Modi government engaging in illegal tapping of phones of
MLAs and MPs. The report also said intelligence officers believed that official
taps on phones was time-consuming and required several levels of permissions.
It becomes more fruitful in this scenario to take the service provider into
confidence and come to an “unofficial arrangement</i>, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">the report said”</i>.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What is clear from all this is that the stalking case was
not an isolated one. Abuse of the power to tap is rampant. Abuse of the state
police machinery is rampant. What is the power used for? In part, to get
political leverage. Apart from Haren Pandya and Shankersingh Vaghela, Keshubhai
Patel was also reportedly as complaining about being snooped upon. Any
surprises that Modi has been besting his political rivals one after another
over the years? We now know why. He had access to confidential information about
his rivals. "<i>Ipsa scientia potestas est"</i> ('knowledge itself is
power') is one of the most powerful weapons in politics.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What is perhaps even more stinking than the stalking,
snooping and phone tapping scam itself is the way the BJP has been mounting its
defence of Modi and Shah. The defence speaks more about the mindset of the BJP
supporters. Madhu Kishwar (who supports Modi almost 100% of the times, even
though she is a journalist and expected to be unbiased) tweeted ““<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">56 yr old officer under watch of government
4 criminal misdeeds misuses posn to sexually exploit woman yng enf to be grd
dtr, parents shd say fine?</i>”. What is she saying? That the girl has no
rights of her own? They can be usurped by her father, as if he “possesses” her?
Meenakshi Lekhi, spokesperson of the BJP, has made inane accusations about the
Congress asking how the tapes got out. Arre, forget how the tapes got out. The
point is why what happened, happened.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And where is the “protected” girl (the victim really) in all
this? Why is she not coming out and saying what she has to say? Why is her
father fronting for her all this time? What is she afraid of? Did the girl
really know what was going on? Did she know that even the phones of her family
members were being tapped? Did she know that there were cops put on the flight
that she took when she traveled out of Ahmedabad? Did she know that cops were
monitoring her interactions with friends, including men? All of this looks
extremely unlikely.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<u>The real truth</u> is that this snooping episode, along
with many others – the 2002 riots, the numerous illegal fake encounters, the
murder of Haren Pandya after he turned a government baiter, the tampering with
the judicial process forcing the SC to move cases out of the state, the
harassment of bureaucrats who don’t toe the line, the failure to appoint (or
strategy not to appoint) a Lok Ayukta for more than a decade and later amend
the law itself using brute legislative majority to wrest power of the
appointment process, the absence of an adequate number of RTI commissioners –
all points to Gujarat having become a classic police state over Modi’s tenure. If
this is part of Modi’s “Gujarat model”, I don’t want any part of it….</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-78126277311086667192013-11-17T18:26:00.002-08:002013-11-17T18:26:23.182-08:00“Saheb” fails to clear air on Amit Shah tapes….<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<br />
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Modi had a good
chance to clear his name in the Amit Shah tapes scandal at his Bangalore rally.
But what did he do? He went of a typical rhetorical tangent, preferring to accuse
the Congress’s “dirty tricks department”. Why couldn’t he just give us an explanation
of what actually happened? Doesn’t the BJP demand an explanation from the PM
for decisions taken by him <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">all</i> the
time? Why then does it not give one when it is required?</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
The twitter world on
the other hand has been abuzz with the scandal. Questions have been asked,
blogs written, and caustic comments posted on why the explanations given by
Rajnath Singh and Meenakshi Lekhi look hollow. What emerges is that the girl
was hardly being protected; in reality she was being stalked. Whether this was
on the basis of her father’s request, or for some other reason, is a matter of
speculation. Besides, the question being asked is: How did the CM deploy state resources
to protect his “family friend”? Why did the CM likewise not deploy state
resources to protect and prevent the 450 odd cases of rape and 9000+ cases of
other crimes against women that took place in his state in just a single year? </div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
The question that
hasn’t been asked yet, and which is the real worry considering the political
history of Narendra Modi is this: <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">How
many more people are under official surveillance?</b> Are opposition leaders
being observed illegally? Are youngsters who protest against the BJP’s brand of
politics being monitored? Are Muslim leaders under the supervision of the ATS
as well? What about constitutional authorities – the CAG with whom Modi hardly
shares a good rhapport, the RTI commissioners who Modi has refused to appoint
in adequate numbers, maybe the judges of the High Court who often rail against
him, members of the SIT…..god knows, how far and deep does this surveillance
operation go? Is it possible that what has been revealed by IPS officer Singhal
is just the proverbial tip of the iceberg? It is these questions that Modi
should have answered. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Because what is
clear, and the BJP hasn’t denied it, is that the operation was <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">illegal</i>. A person – and her friends –
were placed under surveillance without permissions from judicial authorities.
If this is true, then the larger question that also needs to be answered is
about Modi’s belief in the Constitution, the rule of law, the rights of
citizens, and the larger subject (which the whole world is concerned with)
about the right to privacy. How dare someone intrude my private world to keep
eyes on it? Even if my father has asked for it? But then does Modi even care
about rights of people?</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Some of the responses
of typical BJP supporters provide an answer to that. One tweet by Madhu Kishwar
is worth reproducing here. She writes “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">56
yr old officer under watch of government 4 criminal misdeeds misuses posn to
sexually exploit woman yng enf to be grd dtr, parents shd say fine?</i>”. Just
look at how saffronites think. <u>First</u>, she completely misses the point
that the girl is an adult and can make her own decisions. Did she write for
protection herself? Did she know that she was under surveillance? <u>Second</u>,
she talks about the officer being under watch. But a story in Ahmedabad Mirror yesterday
– again floating widely on twitter – shows that the officer was put under
surveillance <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">after</i> this snooping
episode, not before. He was punished for calling up Modi for this operation. He
was not under suspicion for earlier. If anything, this is a case of vendetta
against him. <u>Third</u>, if the girl was being sexually exploited by this
officer, then the girl could have gone to the cops, not to the CM. Why didn’t
she? <u>Fourth</u>, how does Madhu Kishwar even know that the girl was being
sexually exploited, unless she was briefed by the BJP? And lastly, just look at
the blinded defence of something completely indefensible that Madhu Kishwar
puts up. This is how political our media has become; it fights Modi’s battles
on his behalf. Why? What about the journalist’s code of ethics? If Madhu wants
to be a BJP acolyte, she has the right, but can she then please abandon her
journalistic credentials?</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Everyone, including
the Congress, is missing the larger point here. Modi’s Gujarat is looking more
and more like a police state; something similar to what existed in Egypt, Iraq
and Libya before Mubarak, Saddam and Gaddafi were thrown out. This incident
shouldn’t be seen in isolation. It’s a trend that started with the Gujarat
riots in 2002, was followed up with the murder of Haren Pandya, the several
fake encounter killings, the crushing of bodies like the Lok Ayukta and RTI,
the refusal to rebuild mosques broken in the riots, the shifting of several
cases by the SC outside of Gujarat…..all of these tell us about Modi and his
style of governance. That’s the larger worry, not this single case by itself
(although it is bad enough).</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Modi didn’t respond
to any of this. I got the impression he was on the back foot here. He hopes the
issue will die down on its own, and it very well could, given media’s current
obsession with Modi. The Congress is unable to organize large rallies against
this, either in Gujarat or Delhi. If the whole thing had played out in reverse
– with the Congress caught in Modi’s position – the BJP would have exploited it
to the hilt. But the Congress’s inability to communicate its concern is what
ails it. It’s not its performance that harms it; it’s its inability to assert a
political point that does. While Modi is a master with rhetoric, the Congress
is particularly inept. It resorts to boring facts and points of law. That’s why
Modi gets away with so much muck that is floating all around. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u>The real truth</u>
is that by failing to respond, Modi has furthered the perception of his style
being autocratic, and Gujarat being run like a police state. The story creates
a perception that the surveillance operation is far more extensive than has
emerged so far. Much like the Radia tapes, these Amit Shah tapes hold a lot of
juice in them. Hopefully, the courts will intervene……and then Modi will be
forced to explain.</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-56849679049013608142013-11-15T18:30:00.000-08:002013-11-15T18:30:16.014-08:00It’s “gandh”, not “khushboo” Gujarat ki….<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Notwithstanding the much
talked about and highly successful TV and radio campaign “Khushboo Gujarat ki”,
featuring Amitabh Bachchan, Gujarat has for some time now been known more for
the “Gandh” (foul smell) emerging from its soil. We’ve had Godhra, the
post-Godhra riots, the Haren Pandya murder, several fake encounter killings,
sordid HDI statistics, and a whole lot of bogus economic claims (Vibrant
Gujarat being the biggest). Now we can also add the Amit Shah tapes to that
list.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
These tapes are even
more murky than the Niira Radia ones. If Cobrapost and Gulail are to be
believed, then Amit Shah, under instructions from his “saheb”, ordered the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">illegal</i> surveillance of a young woman
architect, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>for no rhyme or reason. The
former home minister, and boss of all cops in the state, reportedly deployed surveillance
teams comprising members from various wings – the state police itself, the CID,
the SIB, and even the ATS (Anti Terrorism Squad) – to monitor the movements of
this woman. Why? What’s going on in Gujarat? Most Gujaratis already know of the
Modi government’s fascist ways. It is now slowly starting to get known
nationally. Gujarat has been run as a police state for long. That explains why
there are no riots there (like there are none in China), very little freedom of
expression (dissent is frowned upon), no Lokpal for more than a decade (so the
dirty tricks remain under a lid) and hardly any RTI commissioners (so no one
knows nothing). Do we want something similar nationally?</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
How should one
approach these “taped” or “tapped” conversations. Should one worry that the
Home Minister of the state, supposedly under instructions from his saheb, abuses
his police force and mounts a surveillance operation over a private citizen and
her male friends, including an IAS officer? Going so far as to even put cops on
airplanes (at great cost to the state exchequer, no doubt) when the girl
travelled out? Or should we worry about the moral temperament of the PM
candidate, who appears to be so infatuated with the young woman that he wants
her every moment monitored? Sometimes even knowing more than the surveillance
team knows (so was there another surveillance mechanism also put in place, to
keep a check on the police surveillance team)? Or should one worry about the
plight of the poor girl’s father, who has issued a statement that he himself had
sought the surveillance of his girl? Which father wants his daughter surveyed
by a police force? And how does the CM of a state deploy state resources for
something so personal in nature? Or should we worry about the fact that we had
to wait for a former IPS officer to be caught and arrested before learning
about this ugly episode? And that mainstream media, happy to sing paeans to
Modi at every possible occasion, failed to inform us about the nature and
character of the person who India is considering for the top job? Or should we
worry about Shah and Modi’s (both of whom would play an important role at the
central level if the BJP wins 2014) complete lack of belief in the judicial
system – they didn’t even bother to get the court’s permission for carrying out
this surveillance, did they? The whole issue is so shocking, one doesn’t even
know where to begin and where to go.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
It could be a story
of lust. Lust that vitiates the trust that the younger generation puts on the
older one to protect it and it’s dignity and honor. Modi’s biggest supporters
are supposed to be the youth. Is this what the youth expects from him? That
they may also be put under covert surveillance one day if they start to protest
against some decision of his government? Is this the type of democracy they
want in the country? </div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
But Modi’s views on
women are well known. Remember he once called Shashi Tharoor’s wife a “50 crore
girlfriend”? A government whose CM thinks of girlfriends as material objects is
bound to consider them also as “objects” that can/should be monitored. There
are also rumors that the infamous Sanjay Joshi (of RSS) sex scandal was cooked
in the political kitchens of Gujarat. That the same team of Vanzara (now in
jail) and others had executed the tapes. All this to settle political scores
with him.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
The gandh from
Gujarat is overpowering. We know that Modi is OK with corruption (his posters
for a forthcoming Karnataka rally prominently show Yeddy with him). He is more
than OK – quite comfortable actually – with a Sri-Lanka like human rights issue
(2002). He is used to abusing his opponents verbally (khooni panja). He runs a
one man show in his state (who is the #2, #3, #4 there?). And we also know that
he is quite a control freak (fascist). Some potent combination for a PM
candidate. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
And what about his
party, the BJP? We know that Ayodhya is what it really cares for. In fact, its
fetish with 17<sup>th</sup> century orthodoxy is so much that it’s senior
leaders even object to songs which apparently denigrate “Radha”, and to films
which question the tenets of Hinduism (Oh My God). They force students in MP to
do Surya Namaskar and sing the Sarasvati Vandana. Their leaders perform pujas
to appease the rain gods (Karnataka). And we also know what the RSS, the
fountainhead of the entire Sangh ideology, thinks of Muslims and Christians
(India’s top 2 enemies as per Golwalkar). Is this the party that modern India
needs?</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u>The real truth</u>
is that now that the spotlight is on Modi and Gujarat, all the “gandh”, hidden
for long, is finally starting to come out. And the gandh is very very distasteful.
The gandh is similar to that of the 2004 campaign line “India Shining”. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That ad could not save the BJP then. Amitabh
Bachchan’s ad will not be able to do it either….</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-9227749628873833712013-11-14T19:28:00.003-08:002013-11-14T19:28:41.673-08:00Now MP High Court swings to Hindutva tunes – Ram Leela doomed<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">What’s wrong with our courts? I wrote
yesterday about how the SC reversed its own stand and ordered a further delay
in the demolition of the illegal Campa Cola flats in Mumbai. Now the MP HC has
directed, at the very last moment I might add, that the title of the film Ram
Leela should be dropped. Err….dropped? At the last moment? Is this not harassment?
But forget the court for a moment. What is more important is, who are these
people who worry so much about our “Hindu sentiment”? Why are they so
illiberal? Is this the kind of culture we want in this country? </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">These are the people who want to take India back
to the dark ages. They are so insecure about Hinduism that they won’t allow any
interpretation of it that is different from theirs nor allow the creative folks
a little creative license.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
Ram Leela is hardly
the first instance where people with 17<sup>th</sup> century mindset have made
such objections. Remember Sushma Swaraj of the BJP protesting against usage of the
name “Radha” in the song “Radha” from the film “Student of the Year”? I wrote
about this on 12<sup>th</sup> November, 2012 in a post titled “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Did Sushma Swaraj just complain about the
“Radha” song from Student of the Year</i>???” (available at <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">http://tinyurl.com/o7cs7qs).</span></i><b>
</b>Her objection was that Radha has been shown in the film as not knowing how
to dance and being invited to the dance floor to learn to dance (TOI - <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">http://tinyurl.com/pgfzfay)</span>.</i>
So did she mean that all Radhas have genes that make them expert dancers – if
so, then maybe this is something that geneticists should research! Actually,
Sushma would have found much more to object to if only she had heard the lyrics
carefully. The lyrics of the song “Radha” actually put the words “sexy” and
“Radha” together. Surely “Sexy Radha” must have appalled Sushma! Not only that,
but Radha likes to move that “sexy Radha body”. Man that’s going too far, isn’t
it??!! And when Radha wants to party and Radha “wants more”, then that must be
going over the top for most BJP/Hindutva leaders! Apparently, Sushma considered
this so important that she took up the matter in Parliament! </div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
And why do such
things happen only in BJP ruled states? We know the BJP can be exceedingly
orthodox when it comes to religious matters. From doing pujas when the rains
fail (in Karnataka when ruled by the party) to making singing of Saraswati
Vandana compulsory in schools (in MP), the BJP has shown a penchant for high
order and aggressive Hindu orthodoxy. Now I don’t know who these two lawyers
are who filed the petition – Anand Chawla and Amit Kumar Sahu – and whether
they are related in any manner to the BJP or not, but there is no doubt that
the party’s Hindutva ideology does at least partially encourage people like
them to stay back in the old ages. And when they see a leader like Sushma
Swaraj – an otherwise erudite and inspiring leader – fight for such causes,
surely they get the requisite encouragement to pursue their ancient-age agenda.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
It appears that the
courts also get influenced by the politics of the state. We’ve seen the Supreme
Court having to step in and take specific cases outside of a state when it
finds this. Several of the 2002 Godhra related cases were taken out of Gujarat
for instance. This instance in MP also proves the point. The Delhi High Court,
perhaps because of the liberal environment in which it operates, had a
completely different take on the same issue. Here is what Outlook India reports
on its website (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">http://tinyurl.com/qb7hvv9</span></i> ): “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Interestingly, a Delhi court yesterday recalled its earlier order of
restraining Bhansali and EROS International Media Limited from using the title
'Ram Leela' for the film, slated for November 15 release. The Delhi High Court had earlier refused to ban the release of the movie and
also imposed a cost of Rs 50,000 on an NGO which had moved the plea against the
film on the ground that sex, violence and vulgarity in the movie will hurt
religious sentiments and feelings of Hindus</i>”. How is it that two High
Courts rule in such completely opposite ways. The only explanation has to be
that they are influenced by the societal and political environments in their
states.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
The poor producer is
now stuck. He does not even know what to do next. Outlook reports that he has
already changed the name of the film a few times. First from Ram Leela (two
separate words) to RamLeela (one word) to <i>Goliyon Ki Rasleela Ram-Leela (</i><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">Ugghhh!)<i>. </i>But what now? </span>How
can the producer just drop the name in its entirety? If it were just a
descriptor that caused the problem, he could still have done it. But to change
the title itself at the last minute is pure harassment. The producer will have
to delay the launch of the film in MP, appeal in the SC, make many lawyers
richer by tens of lacs of rupees, and then hopefully get a reprieve. If anyone
had any doubts about how difficult it is to do business in India, even if it is
something as casual as films, this case proves it. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u>The real truth</u>
is that this is how Hindutva would pervade our entire life, if we didn’t take
steps to stop it. Next time a producer makes a film, he will just play safe.
Stay away from anything that can raise the hackles of the Hindu brigade. This is
what Mahesh Bhatt said when the Radha controversy arose (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">http://tinyurl.com/oddluvx).</span></i><b>
</b>This is exactly what happens in Taliban-land, and in the worst of the
Islamic world. Do we really want to support this version of Hindutva? Do we
want to encourage it or kill it before it explodes in our faces????</div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1667715099331757257.post-28300140182578089192013-11-13T18:57:00.002-08:002013-11-13T18:57:59.070-08:00Campa Cola case shows how fickle the SC is….<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The Campa Cola demolition has been stayed.
And rightly so. In my view, no demolition should ever be ordered. We are after
all, an asset-deficient country. Alternative remedies can and should be found, which
can act as a deterrent to those who flout rules, while avoiding destruction of
precious assets. What the remedies should be is really for our law makers to decide.
But the focus of this piece is not on this. It is on the SC’s regular flipflops
which are completely inexplicable and unacceptable. How can the country’s top
court be so fickle in its decision making?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">One is not questioning the ultimate authority
the SC wields in deciding on judicial matters. But clearly, one expects the SC
to be sensitive to this unique power it has under the Constitution, and decide
matters after due consideration. Bureaucrats and ministers can get away with
“roll backs”, but the SC cannot. Time and again we find that the SC either
rolls backs its own decisions, or the decisions taken by the lower courts.
Where is the sanctity in the judicial process then? And what about
accountability to the litigants and the people in general? Why are such
discretionary powers to take/alter decisions not questioned by our media the
same way as they are for politicians and bureaucrats? Why do we treat our
judges as if they are avatars of God and refuse to question their callous methods?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Did the courts not have adequate time to
decide on the Campa Cola mess? The imbroglio dates back to 1989 when residents
of the society approached the Bombay HC for permission to get water (Imagine
this: they were using tankers for their needs before this). After a long-drawn
process, the HC ordered demolition in 2005 (a “time-bound” process as it
ordered). The matter obviously went to the SC, which after many years in Feb
2013, agreed with the HC. The demolition date was set for April, then moved by
a few days to early May, then again to November. Now it has been stayed for six
more months. Clearly, no one can make the case that the HC and SC did not have
adequate time to pass their final orders.</span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">I am happy the demolition has been stayed at
least for now. But the grounds for doing this look specious. Apparently, the
court was under the impression that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">only</i>
25% of the flats were still occupied. In reality apparently, 75% flats are
occupied. How does that change the situation? If it’s a “human issue” in
addition to the legal one as the SC has now opined, how does that human angle diminish
if its 75% and not 25% who are still occupying the flats? Are the rights of 25%
not important enough from a human angle? </span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The SC incidentally has not reversed its
order, only delayed the demolition date yet again. In a very filmy style, it played
“God”, intervening “suo-moto” even as the demolition was underway. What does
this say about this most august of institutions? That it considers itself above
the usual accountability standards set for public institutions and thinks it
can change its mind anytime? Is this kind of errant behavior on account of the
fact that no one dares question the judiciary? Just look at it – no media
outlet has asked the SC to justify its back-and-forth orders.</span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">This is hardly the first time this is
happening. I don’t have numbers but I can bet there are hundreds if not
thousands of instances when the SC has “disagreed” with the lower courts.
Recently, in the case of infamous “tandoor” case, the SC reversed the HC’s
order of the death penalty. Did the SC subsequently do anything to align the
thinking of the lower courts so that such “mistakes” do not happen again? I
doubt it. Actually, such reversals are so common, no one even bothers about the
rulings of the lower courts. Almost all their orders are appealed, and this is
one of the main reasons why the courts are so clogged. Had there been accountability,
this would not have happened.</span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">But what about cases when the SC reverses its
own decisions? The 2G related case when a bench of the SC ruled that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">all</i> natural resources must only be
auctioned was later reversed on appeal by the court’s Constitution bench.
Imagine what would have happened if the government had not appealed. Would the
Constitution bench have reversed the decision suo-moto even then? Such random
conduct shows the SC in poor light, making it look like an institution run by
moody judges. Catch them on a good day and good a favorable judgment, and vice
versa. Reversals of judgments should be only in the “rarest of rare” cases.</span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">And did the SC consider the plight of the
others who occupy the legal flats? It has been reported in media that
structural engineers have opined that these flats would become structurally
weaker after the demolition of the flats above them. What about the hardships they
would face when the water tank (at the top of the illegal floors) would be
demolished and they would be denied water for months? Was there no “human
angle” that the SC could see in this? </span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Besides, how can we destroy property, even if
it is constructed illegally. Any number of solutions can be found to deal with
the issue of illegality. A stiff penalty “at current rates” could be applied.
As an example, maybe the prevailing TDR rate (TDR entitles a builder for extra
FSI) could be levied on the residents of these illegal flats (the builder must
be sued in any case). Or maybe the government can take over the illegal flats
and use it for something productive. Or some other solution can be found. But
under no circumstances should demolition be carried out. If laws need to be
amended, let them be.</span></div>
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<u><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The real truth</span></u><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> is that I am happy the Campa Cola demolition
has been stayed. Rather than demolishing them, the government must find a legal
way to either regularize them. But more importantly, the SC must introspect,
and advise its lower arms and its own judges on how to become more consistent
and less fickle in the future….</span></div>
</div>
Prashanthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05179662957363875423noreply@blogger.com0