New TRAI recommendation on 2G spectrum pricing is a joke

Yesterday's papers reported a recommendation made by TRAI that telcos that possessed spectrum above 6.2Mhz would have to pay Rs 16000 crores for it. This includes BSNL, Airtel, Reliance and almost all the incumbents. This recommendation was received by media with cheer.....partly because it vindicated their stand that there had been underpricing. There is nothing wrong with this recommendation, except that it is sought to be applied with retrospective effect.

Applying retrospectively is a ridiculous concept. This specific instance is an effort by TRAI to cover up for its own past goof-ups. It's also a decision taken keeping the present mood of the country in mind (illogical; pandering to the mood of the people). It has no legal legs and will surely be challenged by the affected corporates. After all, how can the rules of the game be changed by the government after the game has been played???

If the government accepts TRAI's recommendation, it's basically accepting that it made a mistake in the past.....and now wants the corporate sector to pay for it. Why should the  corporate suffer because the government made a mistake? Is it not possible that the corporate may have decided against taking the spectrum had it known that the cost would have been this high? What's left of the credibility of any government decision if a corporate cannot be sure that it wont be reversed at a later date?

To understand this better, lets shift the time frame to the present. The government recently rolled out the 3G spectrum policy (and the irony of course is that the success of the 3G policy put the government in the dock. But that's not the point of this piece). Many telcos bid and acquired the licenses and some have even rolled out their services. They will invest many thousands of crores more in the next 2-3 years. Now imagine....if after 2-3 years, the government does a re-think and believes that actualy the pricing of the telcos should have been double of what it actually charged, and imagine....if it actually made the telcos pay up. In turn, just imagine.....if the the telcos asked us users of 3G services to pay up higher rates for the past??! Would you pay up? That's what this TRAI recommendation amounts to! What kind of a country would that make India? Where even the government's decisions are not reliable? What kind of damage would that do to investments flowing into the country? Would you like to invest money in a government deposit scheme if the government could later revise the terms of the deposit? Say the government agrees to pay 9% interest today......but a few years later say: Sorry I made a mistake. It should be 6%. Now please return the excess interest I pay you in the past!

This is as serious in nature as a country defaulting on its sovereign debt.....what we are seeing happening in Europe. But no decent government will actually default. Sovereign debt comes with the guarantee of the country itself. How can an Ireland or a Greece refuse to pay the debt it took after giving a guarantee? When it took the debt, it promised to pay the debt. There was no risk to the investor....hence they accepted the cheap interest rates. Now, how can the government default? This is why the European Union and the IMF and a few countries like Germany individually came to the rescue of these embattled countries.....just imagine if European countries went back on their promise to pay, would anybody invest in their sovereign bonds in the future? What credibility would they have left? Sure, they can say that in the future, their debt is not guaranteed.....that's fine....and for this, they may have to pay higher rates of interest.....those who invest would do so with this knowledge.....but under no circumstances can a government go back on its word. Changing a policy with retrospective effect amounts to exactly that.

So what should the government do? Should the country simply lose all this revenue?

1) The answer is unfortunately YES. Its simple. You make a mistake, you pay for it. But either which way, you cannot make others pay for your wrong decisions. If the people want to punish the government for this mistake, they can do so in the elections. That's the power the people have.
2) The government should severely penalize TRAI who seems to be waking up at this late hour and realizing its mistake (without actually accepting that it made a mistake). One of the past TRAI Chairmen is in any case in the dock. But maybe TRAI should lose some of its autonomy. Maybe it needs to satisfy the Parliament or the Judiciary that it has made changes to its constitution and its ways of working. Its powers need to be trimmed.
3) Fundamentally, the government should beef up its own systems of decision making. With the knowledge that it cannot reverse the decisions taken.

And by all means, the government has every right to change its policies.....but they should apply in the future and even then......with adequate warning to the incumbents. Changing any policy is bad.....if it affects others....changing it with retrospective effect is vindictive and criminal.

The real truth is that at this time, everyone is trying hard to appear above the board. TRAI, DOT, the ministers, everyone....and in the process, they are taking stupid decisions. If this continues, India will genuinely earn itself the tag of a banana republic. I heard somewhere that India has still not become a banana republic but it has surely become a banana-skin republic. With the kind of government policies we have..... you can slip anytime!

Media's influence on our minds - the Aarushi case

The Aarushi case has been a real pot-boiler. This one is the one that has thrown up so many different sensational, exciting possibilities. And the reason its so news-worthy is because of the characters who are involved. A wealthy doctor couple with influential clients; both good looking, modern, English-speaking individuals. Especially the mother who comes out as  hard working and now shattered (notice her fragile looks). A young daughter (notice her pretty eyes) who studied in a reputed school in Noida. Just like the Jessica case, this one had a lot to generate interest in the media. And in our minds.

The Aarush case is an ideal case study to understand the strong influence media has on our minds. How we form perceptions about people and events. Broadly, there are two types of perceptions we create in our minds when high-profile people are suspected of involvement in a crime. The predominant perception we have is that the rich get away; they can manipulate the cops and the courts; they can destroy evidence; even buy out witnesses; etc etc. The other is that the rich actually get more harsher treatment because of the media attention and hence have to face even more torturous procedures than ordinary people would have to. By and large, media likes to take the role of "lets dock the rich" .....for obvious reasons. It leads to good TRPs and it gives media the image of being pro-people and anti powerful people. With the help of such cases, media builds its credibility. People start believing in media. And then at a later point in time, media exploits this belief that we have built.

The Aarushi case throws up quite a few interesting points which help us analyze our own thinking process:
1) Its an extremely smart doctor couple who have demonstrated tremendous savvy in handling media and crafting a public opinion for themselves. They have smartly positioned themselves as the aggrieved party....in spite of the fact that they were the only ones in the house before and after the crime occured....They succeeded to a very large extent. Media bought into their game plan. Media portrayed them exactly as they wanted them to. And all of us lapped it up. Just for a moment imagine if media had portrayed them as the key suspects from the beginning.....today, most of us would have carried that belief in our minds.
2) Media had very little interest in the case except for its value in building viewership and readership. Hence the focus on the daughter Aarushi and not on the domestic help Hemraj. Frankly, would you have even bothered about the case if it had been only Hemraj?
3) The sex angle. That was what made the case so compelling. Millions would have played out the crime scene in their minds and taken it to what they vicariously would have enjoyed. Then the connected revelation that the parents tried to change the postmortem report and remove any mention of a rape. The fact that the parents cleaned up the private parts of the daughter. This was the turning point. From this point on, people assumed that the parents were involved. After all can there be any bigger motive for any parent to murder than the sight of their domestic help romping along with their daughter? Media played its role. The sex angle helped them too!
4) The CBI: Its clear now that our opinion of the CBI is based on whether their investigation agrees with our opinions or not. In the Aarushi case, our opinion largely is that they botched up initially.....but they have come back pretty good. Today, when they accuse the parents, we believe their case. But in several other high profile cases, we believe CBI has acted clumsily. Or has been motivated by other considerations. And if we ask ourselves on what basis we formed this opinion, the truth is that our opinions have been almost totally shaped by media. If media had portrayed the two docs to be guilty from the beginning, we would have felt that way. Here, media was initially conned into believing that the parents were innocent; hence most people had sympathies for the parents initially. Notice the power of media on our minds.

The Jessica Lall case was no different. Here was an upmarket model moving around in the top circles of Delhi.....murdered by a politician's son. Bound to attract attention. Media played its role and helped us make up our minds that the politician's son was the perpetrator. Yet in a similar case in Bombay (when a model committed suicide apparently), the model's rich boyfriend (or ex) was shown in a much better light by media. Interestingly, most of us believed that it was a suicide.

Then there's also this "conditioning factor" that comes into play in influencing our perceptions. Centuries of conditioning make us believe that all politicians are murderous, corrupt, power hungry demons. And hence we hate ALL politicians. The truth is that at least half of the MPs are good people....they have worked for their people; they are poor; but we never give them a chance. Conditioning also makes us believe that the model could have committed suicide. Our conditioned minds believe that models do drugs; they drink and party; they sleep around with strange men; they get high and they get depressed; so they can commit suicide. Many times, media just panders to this conditioning of our minds. It plays along. And in doing so, it positions itself as being "right". Their own brand imagery improves. Their following improves. And the advertising dollars follow!

So lets be very very conscious of the fact that we the people are prone to manipulation by media. Media sometimes itself is a victim; sometimes it panders to our conditioning; but mostly, media has an agenda. They want us to form a certain type of opinion. In a democracy, its public opinion that counts. And by wiedling influence on our minds, media becomes powerful. Have you heard of a strong media in a dictatorial or monarchical society? In fact, the first thing that dictators and monarchs do is to defang media.

The real truth is that in the Aarushi case also, our opinions have been shaped by media. Till today, media had got itself got conned. The savvy doctor couple successfully built this "we lost our precious child" image. To the extent that they led all of us - with help from media - to believe in them. Today, when the parents have been made the accused, we are in double minds. Is it possible that the parents could have ever done this to their child? (this is because of our media influenced thinking). Alternatively: they should have always thought the parents were involved (this is because of our centuries-old conditioning that parents that girl children often fall prey to the lust of men and that domestic helps have no morals anyway). Till the time media portrayed the first view, we tended to believe in that possibility. When media is now saying that the parents could be involved, we are tending towards that possibility. Lets recognize this truism. Media shapes our minds. But if we want our sanity intact, lets somehow learn to make our own decisions by gathering different viewpoints. Lets not form opinions based on media stories alone. At the very minimum, lets ready multiples newspapers, watch multiple channels. Who wants to be a puppet in the hands of others? At least I dont!

Congratulations Arnab, Rajdeep for derailing India's growth

The sensex nosedived again yesterday. Its now gone below 18K and ended at some 17800 odd, a new low reached in the last 5 months. Those responsible for this must feel a certain pride.....and must be gloating re-assuredly about the power they wield. They have knocked off a CM (and spared another), a central minister; made the entire government nervous; stopped decision making in the government; and made the economy a hostage to their personal lust for power and control.

Fundamentally, nothing has changed in the Indian economy. Under normal circumstances, a 15% drop in the sensex within a couple of months would be next to impossible. Sure, the sensex was over-priced, but it had been so for several years. The higher price was not irrational. Investors were willing to invest even at high prices because of the very high future growth expectations. Investors dont look only at the P/E ratios; they also look at what is called the PEG ratio (P/E to Growth ratio). So if the growth expectations are high, a higher P/E is justified. In fact, the P/E ratios on BSE and NSE were even higher than those in China.....because there was a near-universal consensus that the Indian growth story was now entering a zone where it would outpace China. Investors are logical people; they have several evolved models which helps them decide on their investments; and while they do make mistakes (who doesnt?), they have, by and large, managed very well for themselves. So pricing cannot be the reason for this precipitous fall.

The real reason for this fall is the sudden nervousness about the political future of India. Consider some of the rumours going around:
1) The present government could fall. No one knows what the nature of the next government could be (except maybe Arnab and Rajdeep!).
2) Even if the present government doesnt fall, Manmohan Singh may have to quit. And lets be clear.....investors (and almost anyone sane in this country) loves the PM.....irrespective of all his "weakness".
3) A ridiculous report even suggested that India could face Egypt and Tunisia like street protests. Admittedly, this is a BJP dream and not likely to fructify soon.

Who have been the ones giving a life to such reports? Of course Messrs Arnab and Rajdeep.....who in their desperation to gain TRPs have given prime time to these rumours (actually they work in concert.....because they are fighting the GECs, not each other really.....and as I mentioned once in an earlier blog, if "all is well", then news channels lose out and GECs gain). Of course, its all justified in the name of "plurality of voices", "freedom on speech", "we are the conscience keepers" and so on. Of course, its ok with these two that the other side is not heard.....that the panel is packed unfairly against the ruling party (while at the same time repeatedly claiming that there are equal reps from all sides on the panel and equal time is being given to all!). They are the ones who make the rules and they are also the ones who sit on judgments!

Its also ok for them to be the decision makers of which story deserves prominence and which doesnt. So when there is a report which says that the BJP telecom minister Arun Shourie also deviated from the BJP cabinet's decision (accepting TRAI's recommendation to go for multi-stage bidding) in pursuing "first come first served" in 2003, that report is placed on an inside page of the leading newspaper.....and somewhere deep into the show on TV where there is limited viewership. Of course, there is no debate on this subject. Its just given a couple of lines in the entire 90 minute show! The story about Karnataka is well known. Yeddy and Reddy get away scot free......in fact, the line that they have taken that nothing has been proved yet; that the party has set up a fact finding mission; is perfectly acceptable. Its a different thing that when the ruling party does the same thing, then its not acceptable to the two leading journalists.....sorry, two leading power brokers (I cant call them journalists).

The mood in India has turned. There are few people left who will argue India's case at this point. Even if they did, who would hear them? They wouldnt find space on Indian TV or in the newspapers. Their voices simply wouldnt be allowed to reach the people. Today, no one believes that India can best China in the next few years. That India can become the 3rd biggest economy in a decade. That India can go past its past colonial ruler in the next 5 years. That India will regain its place in the world order. No one believes any of this. A lot of people now believe that India will remain like this only.....mired in corruption and run by the power brokers. The only difference is....the power brokers are now the media bigshots; not just the politicians and babus. Bigshots, who are allowed to run amok in this undemocratic way.....ironically, because of the democracy that we are.

It's time for us to fight back. Write letters to the editors; compel them to print them; let the bigwigs in industry speak up; media will have to listen to them; and if none of this happens, stop viewing news tv. And stop reading papers which spread a gloomy picture. Believe that the sunshine that is showering over India will outlive the lust of the power brokers who have held India to hostage.

The real truth is that India has been kidnapped. All of us have been kidnapped. Its time we show that we are not going to give in to the kidnappers. That we are going to fight back. That we are going to save India. And ourselves.

Quality of Indian journalism hits a new low

It's appalling to see how far the quality of journalism has plummetted in India. In addition, there is clear political alignment with one party or the other. And the same media that has been taking the high moral ground in exposing one scam after another has forgotten to inform the readers about their interests and alignments. Readers are subjected to distorted, agenda-driven opinions without even the hint of a warning. And then of course, the tendency and habit to sensationalise everything.

Lets take a few examples:
1) 2G scam - stake sale in Unitech and Swan telecom: Media made a sensational claim that after acquiring licenses cheap, the promoters of these companies sold part of their stake and made a financial killing. The motivation for media: Suggest a big scam and grab the reader's attention. Put the govt on the mat. The real truth: as clarified by Montek Singh Ahluwalia and not challenged by anyone since: The money that the foreign players paid came INTO the company. It did not go to the original promoters. The promoters took out NOTHING. Now anyone in business knows that this is the most common way to get FDI. If the money stays within the company, it is used to develop the business with all its concomittant risks and rewards. If the business prospers, all stake holders do well. But if it does poorly (a vast majority of cos do poorly), then all stake holders lose money. Its the same with Swan and Telecom. They brought the license at some $350 million. That was their contribution to the business. But no value is created by just having the license. They needed technology and expertise in telecom. So they issued fresh shares diluting their own stake (by 45% in Swan's case and 60% in Unitech's) to a foreign company and brought in capital and technology to develop the business. Remember, all this is just investment. There are no profits. No money taken away by the promoters. If the joint ventures fail, no one makes money. So the original promoters of Swan and Unitech could lose money. This is the truth. But what did media do? They pronounced (without even understanding the issue) that the promoters of these two companies had ALREADY MADE MONEY. If this is not shallow journalism, what is?
2. The mess in Karnataka has been underplayed by media. The charges against the CM there are more serious than the charges against Ashok Chavan in Maharashtra were. Yet the media forced the Congress to remove Ashok Chavan till the investigations could be completed. No such pressure was mounted by the media on the BJP. Media chose to put Karnataka on the inside pages (if at all) and Maharashtra on the front page. Do you smell an agenda here?
3. 2G scam - extent of scam: Consider this basic data point. The CAG has said that the 2G scam could be of the order of Rs 70K to Rs 176K crores. Now ideally, media should have debated the findings of the CAG. It should have presented all points of view to the readers and viewers. Was the methodology used by CAG fair? Is it not government's prerogative whether they want to maximize revenues or focus rather on cheap roll-outs? Media did none of this. At the very minimum, good journalism would have dictated that whenever they reported figures, they would report both the lower and upper range? But what does media do? Without an exception, media has called it a scam of Rs 1.76 lac crores. Media finds it more useful to report only the highest number. Is this just poor quality of journalism, or is this a case of political agenda?
4. The S-band scam un-earthed today: Again, media fails to mention that the S-band is a band used for a thousand innocuous (and hardly worth the amount it is made out to be) applications like Amateur radio and TV broadcasts, cordless phones, radars etc. Its even used in microwave ovens! More recently, a part of it is being used for mobile broadband. None of this is explained. Media zeroes in on the sensational part.....Again media ignores to highlight the part that the Department of Space itself was looking into the matter. It mentions it only in passing. This is pure sensationalism.
5. Government not revealing names of Swiss bank account holders: Did the media highlight the reality of international agreements that bind the government's hands in this matter? Media chose to ignore this reality. It was more interested in suggesting a lack of willingness of the government. Instead, it should have confronted reality.....and keeping this reality in mind, it should have suggested options that were available to the government. Again, a case of shallow reporting

In all of this, media has chosen to acquire certain partners. The opposition parties are obviously good allies to have. Opposition parties quite naturally like to grill the government. By the way, I believe its fair for the opposition parties to have an agenda against the government. That's their job. They can even level accusations against the government. They are only allegations.....not proven. But what about media? Dont we need more responsibility and accountability with media? Can media be allowed to behave like opposition parties? The other partner is the judiciary. There is a clear case of judicial activism in some cases. Yet media ignores it. There is really attrocious behavior from some judges (driven by a desire for fame) to use intemperate language in describing their peers in government. Media puts such stories on the front page. A partner of late has been the CAG. Now anyone who has run a company knows that any internal auditor gives the management a chance to explain their point of view. It does not "expose" its findings to the audit committee. The internal auditor also has to verify if its a policy matter (that rests with the management and the Board) or a process failure (that rests with the audit committee). But the CAG prefers to first go to media before giving the government a chance to explain. But media defends its partner in this.

It's often said that if the 3 arms of the government - the legislative, executive and judiciary - get too cosy with each other, its bad news for the country. What happens when the 4th estate - media - gets too cosy with any one of these? Its even worse news for the country. Because media has the power to brainwash people. To make or break reputations of people. To build opinions for or against someone. If it does not exercise this power with utmost discretion, it can cause permanent and irreparable damage to the nation.

The real truth is that media has lost its standards. Journalists and media owners have agendas to pursue. The power that they command has corrupted most of them. Exposing corruption is not about un-earthing the truth anymore; its about asserting power. Today, the governance of this country is at the mercy of media. Government decisions are taken not keeping public interest but media opinions in mind. Not everyone is corrupt. There are some great civil servants and politicians out there. But instead of making them partners and giving them support, media chooses to ignore their contribution. Its a real sad commentary on the state of affairs of Indian media.

Media and BJP eat humble pie on the Black money story

There has been so much written about black money recently. So much hype created around the subject. So much expectation raised. We all expected to hear big names. To hear big sums of monies being un-earthed. And what did we get? A few totally irrelevant and un-important names and a paltry sum of money that cannot even be called loose change!

So will media and the BJP explain itself? Will they eat humble pie? No way.....both have done what they do always. They have already concluded that the black money exists and that if the leaks are a disappointment, its only because the government is involved in some way. The latest canard is that the government itself has released the names.....till now the accusation was that the government was not releasing the names! So their upshot really is that they have pronounced the government guilty irrespective of what it does. Damned if they reveal. Damned if they dont!

Its not a happy state of affairs at all for all of us Indians. If the fourth estate behaves and conducts itself in this shallow manner, then its really a sad day for Indian democracy. I remember the days when all of us would take reports in newspapers at face value. Newspapers stated facts correctly.....after weighing all the data carefully. They always offered the other party a chance to state his/her views. They always clarified that they may not be entirely correct if they were not sure about their analysis. They always mentioned it if their sources were unreliable.

In today's times, journalists have themselves got sold. Its now common public perception that its possible to get a news story printed.....if you know a journalist and are willing to pay a certain fee. The truth does not matter. Everything is available for sale.

Its the same with this story of black money. The BJP wants to continue putting pressure on the government. So they grab this story with both hands. They dont have to prove anything. They dont need to explain why they did nothing when they were in government. If the names are big, they prove a point. If the names are not big, then they can get away by saying that the government is hiding facts. Its a win-win situation for them either ways. The Indian media wants to gain readers and viewers. Again, Indian media does not have to prove anything. They can simply state what they want to and get away with it. No one can touch the media.....if anyone dares do that, then they will be accused of subverting democracy. The fact is that it is the media that is subverting democracy.

The fact is that there is a lot of black money abroad. But the numbers are no where close to what is being claimed. The BJP claims that the amount of black money abroad is between $500 and $1400 billion .Where they get this figure from.....god only knows. Honestly, there is no reason for us to believe such numbers. Then there is the much touted Global Financial Integrity (GFI) report which has done a more detailed calculation. Its highlight shows that there is some $462 billion stashed abroad. But if you read the report carefully, you'll realize that the actual sum siphoned off over 60 years is just $213 billion. The rest is what is called "present value" adjustments. Basically adjustments to account of inflation, or interest rates, or some such thing. This money was taken out over the last 60 year....even if 10% of this is said to have been taken out in the last one year ($21 billion), that's so disappointing a sum. That's no more than 1.5% of the Indian GDP. I have always said that India has been a 10% corrupt nation.....this 1.5% is so small, its really a non-story. But then, who cares for the facts. The media and the BJP both like big numbers. So rather than do all this explaining, its more convenient just to mention $462 billion. Who cares for the truth.

The real truth is that in today's politically surcharged environment, no one is interested in getting to the bottom of things. There is simply no time for that. The plot is changing quickly. Who cares for autheticity. Who cares for research. Just grab some headlines and move on. The real truth also is that all of Indian media has become politically aligned with one political party or another. So Times Now is pro-BJP and NDTV is pro-Congress. CNN-IBN cant figure out what it wants to do. These channels have become mere platforms for people with agendas to come and spread their lies. They put up panels with people who are aligned with their own agendas. Indian TV news channels never had any credibility. Their anchors were never called journalists. Now they are increasingly being called pimps. That's what we should be worried about.

Enough damage done....The BJP and the Media are wrecking India

I've been away from my blog for almost 5 days now. And it appears that too much damage has already been done by all sorts of agenda-led people. Its time we, the people of India, decide not to make the handling of the country's progress into a Hindi GEC.....and compel nuisance makers to back off.

It appears suddenly that nothing that had been said about the economic miracle called India was true. It appears that the only thing that stands out about India is its corruption. Apparently, the ruling government is full of scams. And if one were to watch the news telecasts, it appears that every political party except the Congress, is absolutely un-tainted and squeaky clean. 

This is so much rubbish. Let me first take the economy. Then the political farce that the BJP is thrusting on India.

There is so much going for India. We are emerging as one of the biggest manufacturing hubs in the world. And here's the good part. We are focusing on the high-quality part of manufacturing. Unlike China - which has been manufacturing everything from safety pins to dolls to cheap plastic doormats. India's manufacturing strengths are connected with its design and research skill-sets and are being seen in complex areas like automobiles, enginneering goods, pharmaceutics and precision tools. Then the proliferating services sector that continues to grow at a rapid pace. The entrepreneurial culture of Indians supported by the boom in the economy is leading to further growth in the services sector. Take this interesting example. Someone told me that there were about 3000 drivers who were engaged by a few private companies during the Christmas-New Year binging period in Bombay. There must have been a similar number in Delhi and other metros. Now that's innovative! And a lot of them will stay back for the routine Wed-Fri-Sat binging that happens every week in some cities. Further, thanks to good monsoons, the agriculture sector is doing well as well. Basically, we are on track to hitting a 9% GDP growth this year.

However, on the political side, its been a period of total mayhem. The BJP is following a dangerous agenda. Frankly they had no option. Frankly, the way the GDP was growing and the "aam aadmi" was clearly gaining economically, left the BJP really worried. The BJP itself had hardly any leadership left. Advani is way past his prime.....Jaitley is sophisticated but simply does not connect with the masses......Sushma Swaraj is just another cantankerous politician who is good in coining catchy slogans but is incapable otherwise. So when Nitin Gadkari took over the BJP.....he found his team just wasnt going to go anywhere. He brought in his rustic approach to politics. Gone was the little sophistication that existed within the BJP associated with Vajpayee, Advani and Jaitley. The rustics approach said: Rubbish everything the government of the day is doing. Astute politician that he is, Gadkari spotted the desperation in Indian media to gain audiences. And the need for drama in the lives of Indians. Facts be damned. Responsibility be damned. Media and BJP got together with one single goal. Oppose everything. Focus the cameras on those who were critical of the government. In the process, bring the country to a grinding halt. Make sure no decisions are taken. That's the only way they could get power. Such blatant abuse of the liberties guaranteed in our constitution. Such scant regard for the desires and wishes of the people.

Here's the real truth. Till the time Manmohan Singh heads the government, the BJP wont be able to hurt the Congress. Manmohan Singh has the trust of the people. He can do no wrong. Everyone knows he is squeaky clean. Everyone knows he understands economics. Everyone knows that its only during Congress regimes that the GDP grows at 8-9% per annum. In the 6 years that the BJP ruled, average GDP growth rate was 5% per annum. During the Congress growth rate after 2004, its been 8%. People dont like the drama of politics beyond the entertainment value it provides. People want the good life. People want to move up the economic ladder. They want to buy cars, go abroad, put their kids thru good education, buy houses and increase their savings. That's why the BJP wins in Gujarat all the time. That's why Nitish Kumar trounced the Congress and the RJD in Bihar. That's why so many CMs got a 2nd term in the last few years. This is the reality the BJP simply cannot reconcile itself to. That while the nation may tune in to TV channels to see the latest tamasha, they dont vote basis what they see or read. They vote basis what they experience in their own individual personal lives. Need more evidence? Everytime the Shivsena creates nuisance in Bombay, it creates sensational news.....the nation sits up and watches the channels and reads the papers.....but when is the last time that Shiv Sena rules Maharashtra???? They got only one term - From 1995 to 2000 I think. People read and watch, but they dont vote basis that.

The real worry for us should be the rising inflation. That's a real challenge. Food inflation is happening because of better distribution of the economic wealth. The NREGA for the first time is giving money in the hands of the poorest of the poor. These people have for the first time become consumers of food products. That's real progress. We should be proud of this fact. But not many people even know this. And media surely wont highlight this. This economic distribution is putting pressure on supply of vegetables and fruits from the rural hinterland to the urban areas. This happens in all economies really. As a country grows rapidly, it often find inadequacies in its supply lines.....production constraints.....leading to inflation. When more capacity is added, inflation is tamed. In agriculture, the problem has been one of stagnating farm productivity. We need another green revolution. There are several ideas there, but let me keep that for another post.

To summarize: The real truth is that the BJP and the Indian media harming India. They know it. They are creating a feeling of gloom amongst the people. They are pointing fingers at the government; not realizing that there are 4 other fingers pointing back at them. They are making the big mistake of thinking that the people of India are stupid. That they will vote for them. The people will teach them a lesson. But until that happens, India remains vulnerable. And the damage will continue.....