The Congress is in overdrive, with policy activism replacing
policy paralysis. Over the past few months, the focus of the Chidambaram led
Finance Ministry and the PM has been on clearing long-pending projects,
especially in the infrastructure sector. The other focus has been on reforms in
the FDI policy. This has started yielding results, with FDI rising smartly. The
stock markets are at a high and the rupee has recovered much of its losses. As
economic gloom yields to at least some cheer, the BJP is fast losing one of its
poll planks – economic “mess” as it calls it – forcing it to gravitate more and
more towards that other plank – Hindutva. Aggressive hindutva to be precise.
The Cabinet Committee on Investments has given the green
signal to projects with an investment potential of more than Rs 5 lac crores. Fuel
linkages between Coal India and near-completion power plants should ensure that
power production increases in the near future. FDI reforms in the aviation
sector has resulted in three deals being announced in recent months – the
Jet-Etihad, Tata-Air Asia and today, the Tata-SIA ones. FIIs have pumped in
money yet again into the Indian stock markets after pulling out money for three
months between June and August. Exports are growing at 10%+ and are expected to
continue the pace in the coming months. Core inflation – which excludes food
and fuel – is down to sub-3% levels, making this a less worrisome issue for new
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan. And while on Rajan, its clear how badly managed
RBI had become towards the end of Subba Rao’s tenure – see my various posts on
this subject. If Rajan today announces even a slight slant towards growth
(either a lower repo rate, or a cut in CRR or SLR as he has already indicated),
then the economic cheer will be back in full swing. Only those strongly aligned
with the BJP will still see gloom anywhere on the economic horizon! The crisis
isn’t over, but the moves made are decisive.
On the other hand, Modi’s much touted development model is coming
under increased attacks. In just the last few days, several figures have
emerged which show that Gujarat’s story is hardly remarkable – it is, but
hardly of the order that Modi has publicized it to be. Other data indicates yet
again how much stronger the UPA rule has been compared to the NDA period. Sample
this: FDI inflow during NDA’s six years rule was some $24 billion. In the
UPA’s 9 years, some $222 billion (source:
ET, September 13th, article by Abheek Barman). And this:
Despite Modi’s much-hyped Vibrant Gujarat, actual FDI inflows into Gujarat were
just some $0.5 billion v/s some $8 billion in Maharashtra in 2012-13. Share of
Gujarat? 2.38% v/s 40% for Maharashtra. Gujarat was placed sixth in the list,
just ahead of…..guess what…..communist West Bengal (source: http://tinyurl.com/bn4afwg). Total FDI into Gujarat since
2003-4, a mere $7 billion compared to Maharashtra’s $46 billion and Delhi’s $26
billion. Here’s more: As per former World Banker Salman
Anees Soz (ya,ya, I know what the BJP will say given his name), Investment rate
during NDA rule was 25.2% of GDP; during UPA rule 35.5%. Fiscal deficit during
NDA rule was 5.5%, UPA 4.6%. Average GDP growth rate during NDA rule 6%, under
UPA rule (despite 2008 crisis) 8%. Per-capita income has risen from Rs 21,729
to Rs 68,747 crores between the NDA and UPA rules (that’s 13.5% per annum on
nominal basis – around 7% on real basis – highest anywhere in the world). Some
140 million people have been taken out of poverty. Etc etc etc.
This is why Modi’s strategy has changed – less in speech but
more in actual action – in the last few months. He no longer reels off fake
statistics, that used to be OK when he was a mere CM. Modi’s development plank
had only one objective – to take the discussion away from 2002. That worked.
Today, many intelligent upper class Indians are willing to condone Modi’s 2002
record, and his continuing anti-minority bias, only because of his so called
development record. But Modi knows that isn’t cutting much ice any longer.
That is why Modi is trying to woo the Muslims – something
that looks so funny really. It’s like Hitler asking the Jews to vote for him! On
the other hand, in terms of actual on-ground action, the BJP’s main political
plank has shifted decidedly towards aggressive Hindutva. The Muzaffarnagar
riots prove how the strategy can help the party. Unsurprisingly, the max number
of politicians named there belong the BJP. Likewise, in Bihar, the JD(U) has
accused the BJP for the riots that took place recently in Nawada. The BJP’s
lame defence: it was failure of administration. Are we to believe that the same
administration that the BJP claimed was so effective for so many years failed
in just 2 months of the alliance breaking? And what about the 84 kosi yatra?
Why was it done a second time during the year, and that too only around the
districts of Ayodhya? And why was Amit Shah in particular sent to UP? The
pursuit of Hindutva is aggressive and muscular. The same muscular style is demonstrated
in statements – illiterate ones really – by Modi about our neighboring
countries. The intention? Create a strong image for Modi of being a
nationalist. Hindu nationalist, mind you.
The strategy is clear. Modi wants to present a personal
image of having changed; of including Muslims in his fold. But behind the
scenes, it’s a different game entirely. And its understandable. The BJP has
tried everything it could during 2004 and 2009. If it went with the same plan
in 2014 – and again under Advani – then there was little hope to capture power.
Hence the RSS’s favorite strategy. Divide and rule. Hence Modi, and not Advani.
The real truth is that the BJP has not only become a
one-man party (my post of 2 days back), but also a party with a single-point agenda.
Make no mistake, its Hindutva all the way. Ram Jethmalani defending Asaram is no
mistake. It is to reassure Hindus (those at the fringe who prefer aggressive
Hindutva) that they are safe under BJP rule. And only under BJP rule. This strategy
will be played more aggressively going forward, especially as the development
plank fails. Hindutva will drown out everything. Wait and watch….
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