The successful visit
of the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to India should be a slap on the face of hardliners,
who just a few weeks back, were preaching that India should escalate tensions
with the neighbor. Had we gone down that path, we would have got embroiled in
an unnecessary spat with a China that even the West fears to engage militarily.
Fortunately, the hot heads were kept out of the diplomatic process, and restricted
to irrelevant TV shows. If these people had the guts to admit mistakes ever,
this would be a good point to start.
There is a huge
symbolism in the Chinese Premier making his first international stop in India.
He could have gone anywhere he chose. He could have gone to the US, which would
have been natural, considering how much trade the two countries share, and the
amount of US debt China holds. He would have been given a warm welcome, and
even the US would have gloated that it was the first country to be chosen by Li
for a visit. He could have gone anywhere in Europe where the sinking economies
would have surely rolled out the red carpet, with an eye on the billions and
trillions that Li could splurge. Li could have gone to Pakistan, even though
that was less likely, considering the terrible reputation of that country, as
also the solid control China already exerts on it. Or it could have made a
grand “visionary” statement by visiting an African country, sending an
emotional “this is the African century” kind of message; at the same time
protecting his country’s huge economic interests in the continent. But no, Li
chose India. Li came trooping in to India, even if that warranted an almost humiliating
withdrawal from a “daggers drawn” position in the Himalayas just a few weeks
back. Why, is the question the hardliners will fail to answer.
Oh, of course its
for reasons of trade, they’ll argue. But wait a moment and think about this.
The “target” for two-way trade between India and China is some $100 billion by
2015. Assuming China has an advantage, its export to India could be $60-70
billion out of this. For a country that exports nearly $1.5 trillion worth of
goods every year, this is loose change. It cannot be trade then. Could it be
investments that Chinese companies seek to make in this fast growing market? After
all, media reports indicate that many of the people traveling with Li are those
who can be called “sellers” of Chinese wares. Fair enough. Chinese companies
want to expand their presence in India. That’s what bonds countries together.
India is bound to be suspect of Chinese investments, but it is satisfying that
the neighbor is here paying obeisance to the Indian “economic dynamo” and wooing
India to allow it to grow its presence.
Yet another reason
could be that China doesn’t want any diplomatic fracas with India at a time
when it is already engaged in an eye-for-an-eye push in the South China Sea. Or
it wants to keep India out of the US-Japan-Israel grouping and thus nip a
growing “surround China” strategy being orchestrated by these countries. If
that’s true, India has played its diplomatic cards right, putting pressure
where it matters. Again, this has been achieved “softly”, without much noise,
especially on Indian TV news channels.
Either way you look
at it, the symbolism of the first Chinese visit is enormous. With this visit,
China has extended a warm hand of friendship. It would be stupid for India to
fall for the “affectionate” rhetoric; but it surely helps that there is peace
on the borders. India needs to focus on mending its economy, and pulls hundreds
of millions more out of poverty, and anything that helps it do that is welcome.
After all, the whole purpose of diplomacy is to protect a country’s larger
interest. There is no place for a hot head in diplomacy; only a cool master.
Further, its not as
if India has skirted the main issues aside to appease China. It has “strongly”
raised the border issue, and the two countries have expressed a willingness to
resolve the same through talks. Both countries have shown a maturity that is
only possible between two partners who respect each other. This kind of
maturity is pretty impossible with Pakistan. But it is with China. India has
also forcefully stated that trade and all that is fine, but trade imbalance
needs to be sorted out too. And on Brahmaputra and other river waters, China
has reassured India that it will take care of our concerns, not doing anything
that disturbs the downstream potential of the mighty rivers. Lets be honest
here. China has done its bit, even going farther than we could have expected, behaving
with the maturity required of a large neighbor. The ball is now in the Indian
court. Thankfully, we have a government that understands diplomacy, and not one
that behaves as if its brains were located in its loins.
The real truth is that soft diplomacy is the only type of
diplomacy that exists. Those who argue for India to take a hardline – meaning
that we should force a military conflict with China or Pakistan, or threaten
them with adventurism – are plain foolish. The BJP is at the forefront of such
demands. Of course, the BJP’s demands are all opportunistic; it would practice
nothing but softness when and if it came to power….
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