Just as much as Chidambaram must be
busy brushing up his budget proposals and speech, so must the opposition –
especially the BJP –and news TV channels with their crib lines. Since the
budget is a big deal, the top guns in each opposition party would have been mobilized
for the job. Equally, news TV channels must be sharpening their knives, as a raucous
prime time show tonight is a foregone conclusion. In all of this, Chidambaram’s
budget proposals will hardly matter. And an intelligent analysis is too much to
ask for.
The BJP in particular must have
prepared clever (and dishonest) lines for most likely budget scenarios. The
party of lawyers and Brahmins is particularly adept at this. The TMC will just
wait for Chidambaram to open his mouth before dashing off to the nearest TV
camera to complain. So also the Left Parties, who don’t like “Paribartan”
(reforms) of any type – political or economic! So predicting tonight’s TV
headlines is not a particularly difficult task, and I must admit writing this
post took less than ten minutes. Here’s a sample of what to expect:
If Chidambaram does achieve the 5.3%
fiscal deficit revised target for the current year (most likely scenario), the
BJP will scream “Government achieved this
by cutting on defence spending and compromising on national security. This government
is soft on terrorists”. If he misses the target, “Chidambaram doesn’t know
how to run the economy”!
If Chidambaram proposes to reduce
fiscal deficit to 4.8% next year (most likely scenario), the BJP’s comment
could be “This government is bowing down
to pressure from the ratings agencies. It has surrendered the country to
inimical foreign forces”. If he proposes a higher than 4.8% number, “Chidambaram is the worst FM ever”!
If Chidambaram launches a new subsidy
program (likely, though not certain), the BJP will allege that this is politics
at its worst. “This is a political
budget, for political gains, and it puts the country at a serious risk of a
ratings downgrade”. If Chidambaram cuts subsidies (also likely, using the
Direct Transfer of Benefits – Aadhar - route), the BJP will then have the
opportunity to say “This government is
insensitive to the needs of the poor. In a high inflation environment, the only
place it found to cut was the spending on the poor” ignoring the fact that
the Aadhar scheme will only cut corruption, not entitlements!
If Chidambaram introduces a tax for the
super rich (a very bad idea and an unlikely scenario), the BJP would scream “This is Chidambaram’s “nightmare” budget. He
is completely reversed his famed “dream” budget”. If Chidambaram decides
not to increase taxation for the super rich, the argument is much easier “This government is pro-rich. When the entire
world is increasing taxes on the rich, this government prefers to mollycoddle
them”!
If Chidambaram adopts an aggressive disinvestment
strategy (most likely scenario), the BJP will shout “This government is selling off the family silver. All the wealth our
forefathers created is being frittered away by this government”. Oh
sorry….a correction. They may avoid reference to the forefathers, since most of
them were Congressmen! If he does not increase disinvestment targets (unlikely),
the retort could be simply “The budget
lacks imaginative ideas. We started the disinvestment process. This government
simply does not know how to continue it”!
If Chidambaram launches new schemes in
Rajasthan, Maharashtra, AP and Delhi (likely), it is because “he is only bothered with Congress
governments”. If he launches similar projects in BJP ruled states (also
likely), it is either because “the BJP
governments are so dynamic, even the Finance Minister had to bow to them”
or better “This is a political move to
gain attack the BJP governments”. If he launches similar projects in UP,
it’s obviously to “bribe the UP parties
into supporting the government”. And if he does so in Bihar, it is to “disrupt a strong BJP-JD(U) alliance”. If
he doesn’t launch any new projects anywhere at all, the “Finance minister has no vision for India”!
If Chidambaram reduces taxes for some
industry segments, it is because “they
have funded the Congress’s election campaign”; or better “the
family has been bribed”! If
he increases taxes for some other industries, it is because “they refused to fund the Congress or pay the
family bribes”!
If Chidambaram makes it easy for the
corporate sector to access global funding, he is “selling off the country to the foreigners”. If he doesn’t, “he is not concerned with the slowing growth
and the country’s need for funds”!
If Chidambaram launches major
infrastructure schemes, “all this was
started by Vajpayee. This government has no new ideas” and if it doesn’t,
just the latter part of the crib: “This
government has no new ideas”!
In addition to the above cribs on
specific points, there would be some made irrespective of anything that
Chidambaram says:
- This government singularly lacks any vision. It is unfit to rule the country any longer.
- This government is anti-aam aadmi. It is unfit to rule the country any longer.
- This government is corrupt and that is why the fiscal deficit is so high. It is unfit to rule the country any longer.
- The Prime Minister is unfit to be called India’s most brilliant economist. This government is unfit to rule the country any longer. We demand the PM’s resignation for the 35th time!
What the BJP will do, most TV channels
will amplify! In the hungry world of TRPs, the only way to get hold of scarce TRP
crumbs is to out-crib everyone else.
See how easy it is to predict tonight’s
news? That’s why Chidambaram should stop looking at TV news channels. The
people of this country already have. That is why even Hindi news channels
command just 5-6% of the viewership of Hindi entertainment channels. And
English channels a measly 0.1%.…..
The real truth is that the real
analysis of the budget will only be known in the newspapers. Forget the “analysis”
provided by the TV channels tonight. One thing is certain: The BJP and the TV
news channels will hit a new high on creative cribbing tonight!
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