Just a few months back, we were
unforgiving towards Dhoni. Yesterday, as he scripted his first double century, we
were effusive with praise calling him India’s best captain ever – again. This
yoyo behavior – alternately seeking to punish and reward the same person, all
in a matter of months – shows how fickle we Indians are. This fickle nature
pervades every sphere of our life including politics, making it impossible to correctly
predict outcomes of polls just a few months away. Forget 2014, we cannot even
predict what will happen in the polls later this year….
Want more proof of our fickle nature? Observe
how people’s opinion about Manmohan Singh has yoyoed in just a couple of years.
He was the coolest dude till recently. When he pushed for the Indo-US nuclear
deal, he became the darling of the middle classes. All criticism about him
being a puppet vanished. Suddenly Singh became King. The praise was effusive. Singh
was praised for his personal integrity, his modest lifestyle, his intelligence
and the fact that even US President Obama took his counsel. Not surprisingly,
they voted the him and his party back to power in 2009. Today, after a few not-so-proud
incidents involving some members of his party, the same Singh is being
ridiculed. The same puppet charge is back. And though no one doubts his
personal integrity even today, they accuse him of having allowed others to
“loot” the country. Earlier, when he spoke less, they branded him a silent
intellectual. Today, they call it his poor skills of oratory.
Extreme viewpoints are part and parcel
of this same fickle nature. We see everything in black and white. Either a
leader is the best there is, or he is simply the worst. Today, many people are
effusive in their praise of Narendra Modi. They see nothing wrong in him. They simply cannot conflate Modi’s charisma
and his growth credentials with his murderous handling of the Godhra riots.
They cannot appreciate that he claims far more credit for Gujarat’s progress
than he deserves; that growth in Gujarat predates him. Likewise many people
dismiss Rahul Gandhi as inexperienced, and one who hasn’t delivered in UP and
Bihar. But they forget that leadership is not only about experience. Vajpayee
scarcely had the kind of experience that counted (his stint as foreign minister
during the Janata Party rule is best forgotten). Politics is about charisma and
vision, both of which Vajpayee had in abundance. And he became a successful PM.
Likewise, when Rahul Gandhi’s supporters look at him, they see him as a young,
charismatic leader. Someone who will lead the country differently; in an
inclusive way, making everyone (not
just one community) feel at home. They see his campaigning in UP and Bihar (two
most difficult states for Congress) as signs of his fearless nature. Modi
didn’t even try to campaign in these states.
So we have extreme views and we are fickle. Combine the two and
we have an explanation for many of our past election results. We voted Indira
Gandhi out decisively in 1978 but we brought
her back to power with a thumping
majority in just 2 years. Her fortunes turned almost overnight. Ditto with
Vajpyaee – who we gave the biggest personal approval ratings to – and then
tossed him out of power.
Our extreme
views and our fickle nature makes our politics colorful. We have seen the
fickle nature at work right through the 90s and 2000s also. I once wrote how
the India Today election forecasts – usually made a few months before elections
– almost always got their predictions wrong. And it’s mostly because of what
happens in the “last few months”. Here are examples of the last 3 general
elections from my earlier post (August 26th,
2012: Last 3 poll forecasts
all wrong…..India Today now forecasts an NDA win….):
The magazine did a
poll in Dec 1998 and predicted that the BJP+ would get 135 seats while the
Congress+ would get a huge 305. In fact, for the first time in a long while,
Sonia pipped Vajpayee in the “Who will make the best PM” question by 31%:27%.
Considering that the forecast was done just 9 months before the elections, one
would have expected it to capture the mood fairly accurately. But aaah…..the painful truth is that the
magazine got it all wrong. Why? I believe it was the Kargil conflict in
May-July 1999 which swung the mood decisively towards the BJP.
Take the 2004 elections held in May. The magazine had a poll forecast
in its April issue in which it predicted a huge BJP+ win with the alliance getting
as many as 282 seats compared to the Congress+ alliance’s 165. In fact,
Vajpayee was riding a high with a personal rating of 51% - his second highest
after the 59% before the 1999 poll. This time around, there was no “Kargil”
explanation possible. Within a month, the magazine had to eat crow when the UPA
romped home with 218 seats (enough to make it the largest formation) with the
NDA relegated to just 181.
Again in April 2009, the magazine’s forecast indicated that the UPA
would be just marginally ahead of the NDA by 200 seats to 177. Again, the
forecast was held immediately ahead of the elections. The Indo-US nuclear deal
had been passed by Parliament in July 2008 and all the positive vibes it
generated for the Congress and the UPA were factored in. And yet, the
magazine’s forecast failed to capture the mood of the nation. The reality was
there for everyone to see. The UPA got 262 seats, with the Congress itself
performing at its best level in recent times. The NDA was down to 158….
So those of you who are already
making predictions about 2014, beware. The Indian voter is unfathomably fickle.
It doesn’t take too long for him to change sides. Whatever happens in the last
few months is what matters. A flop actor becomes a big star overnight. A
sackable captain becomes the toast of the country with one double century. And
a corrupt non-performing leader suddenly becomes a “pragmatic” (a victim of
political conspiracy!), dynamic one in no time. The battle for 2014 has not
even begun!
The real truth is that unlike
more stable, evolved societies, we are still fickle, shallow and immature. We
are emotional. We change sides often, depending on how things change (see how
many people change teams as the IPL progresses!). Dhoni shouldn’t read too much
into the praise. Nor should Narendra Modi. This is India meri jaan – where
things can change overnight!
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