Why does Modi run away from a debate?

Kapil Sibal yesterday challenged Narendra Modi to a public debate on the performance of the UPA government. Earlier, Manish Tiwari had also put forward a similar challenge. To be fair, BJP leaders of various hues have also challenged the PM to a similar public debate. When the PM refused to bite the bait, he was pooh poohed by them. Now the shoe is on the other foot.

Why is the great speaker, the great visionary, the great development guru, the great nationalist, the great “Obama of India” not accepting a presidential-style debate? Arun Jaitley can mock Sibal and others and call them names (2^nd run leaders blah blah), but how can he forget his own stature? He is merely a Sibal contemporary as a lawyer, and surely lower down the pecking order in Parliament as well. Why is he not advising his good friend and PM aspirant to take the bait and “destroy” the Congress? Sushma Swaraj would certainly be willing to a debate of this type. Why not Modi then?

Fact is Modi believes in a “hit and run” approach to elections. He arrives at a rally, makes some bizarre sensationalist points (which have no basis, no relevance), and scoots. His preferred style is a one-way communication in which the other side has no chance to raise questions. But then Modi is not the type to answer questions; he is the one to raise them! Because he didn’t want to answer questions, he never allowed a Lok Ayukta in his state. For the same reasons, he has just one RTI Commissioner in Gujarat (whereas even a small state like Punjab has 9 reportedly). And for the same reasons, he refuses to give one-on-one interviews to journalists. Why should he? He has a dozen of them swooning over him and doing his bidding at his every signal, earning the whole media the @paidmedia ignominy.

What is Modi afraid of? Is his knowledge of economics really shallow as Chidambaram has hinted? Does he really know his onions or is someone scripting it all for him? We do know that he is very well versed in matters of land, and how to distribute them to industrialists at discounted rates. That’s why they love him so much. But does he really understand what GDP is, and what HDI is, and what fiscal deficit is and so on, the things that he is so happy to rant about in every one-way communication opportunity he gets?

Does he also worry that some sharp journo will ask him for a “plan of action” rather than merely cribs? What would he say for instance on the food security bill? Will he say its bad nationally, but good in Chhatisgarh? What about FDI in multi-brand retail? Will he scrap the policy when (and if) he becomes PM while at the same time supporting domestic biggies? Is this the BJP’s swadeshi tilt? What about education? How much % of GDP will he provide for education, even if not 20% like China?! What about the land policy, without which industrialization is impossible? Will he dilute the provisions of the new law or risk the ire of the industrialists who swear by him? Will he increase diesel prices, cut LPG subsidy, raise kerosene prices and promise to auction each and every asset the government has? The problem is that Modi knows his rhetoric will get stripped if he were to face a journo. He knows that. It’s his achiles heal. He has to protect himself from such an ambush!

Typically people who are hollow in substance tend to put on a more pompous presentation. It’s the same “beauty v/s brains” thing. Modi is “beautiful” in the sense that he can deliver fabulous speeches. But he is also “without brains”, in the sense that he cannot take on specifics.

That’s why he has reportedly only given a handful of interviews to senior TV journos….and even there he’s scooted from at least one of them. If he ever decides to give an interview, he will to his favorite channel host, the one who meowed like a puny cat when speaking with MNS tiger Raj Thackeray! This anchor will be eager to cover up all the gaffes; maybe even allow Modi to edit the interview himself!

But if Modi really wants a presidential style election, and is really confident about himself, he must accept the challenge from Sibal. It’s a good chance for him to demolish Sibal and the Congress! Maybe a senior journalist can moderate the dialogue as happens in the US. But then people will know for sure what Modi stands for, rather than what he doesn’t. Then he will be able to answer the questions that many have in their minds. Maybe the PM is silent, but we know his is the case of “silent waters run deep”. Why is Modi so silent?

The real truth is that Modi is just a showman. No substance, no stuff. Just a lot of bluster. His goof ups are now starting to come out; many are covered up by eager-to-impress journos. But soon, the truth will be out. The messiah will be exposed for what he really is!

Lies, gaffes and threats ….what more can we expect from the BJP?

If it weren’t so serious a matter, it would be funny. The messiah of the BJP, it’s sole leader, is already starting to flounder, just six months after he started off on his speeches. For BJP supporters who like to call Rahul Gandhi “pappu”, this might be terrible news, for the moniker is now perhaps more appropriate for their ideologue!

Just look at the incidents of the last few days. First, Modi has been quoted as saying that Nehru never attended Patel’s funeral (though he has tweeted that the newspaper, Divya Bhaskar, had misquoted him and has retracted it…..but there is also a counterpoint made by someone that after scanning all copies of the newspaper in all languages, he has still not seen the retraction). The Congress pounced on it – Digvijay Singh infact posted a video of the funeral. The TOI carried a copy of its edition of that day that showed that Nehru was very much present.

As if that was not enough, Modi’s shenanigan of usurping Patel for himself (ET explains why he’s doing this in today’s edition) became embarrassing when he confused the Sardar’s birth anniversary with his death anniversary which is still some days away. If Modi was so enamoured of Patel, so impressed by his achievements, so inspired by his personality, how could he make such a fundamental blooper?

Then of course the other bloopers – calling Chandragupta Maurya (who lived around 300 BC) part of the Gupta dynasty (which existed between 300-500 AD), saying Alexander the great (will we be allowed to call him great in a Modi run government?!) came as far as the Ganges in the East (when in fact he stopped at Beas), and insisting that Takshashila is in Bihar (when in fact it is in Pakistan). Under normal circumstances, one would simply blame the speech writer and not the speaker himself, but since Modi makes such sharp speeches, attacking one and all, he has to face the embarassment himself.

None of the above qualify for being called a lie though. But Modi’s statement that the Congress had marginalized all national leaders who were not from the Gandhi-Nehru family is a lie, as TOI has brilliantly shown today. In its story titled “Ad bills show UPA did not “forget” Patel”, the paper says that UPA spent Rs 8.5 crores in the last four years on Patel’s birth anniversary ads. For reference, it spent just a shade higher, Rs 9.4 crores on Nehru. So did the Congress “belittle” Patel and “prop up” only Nehru? Now if Modi did not know these facts, why did he make that pompous statement? Again, Modi’s lie ended up embarrassing him as well, since the TOI report showed that it was the NDA that had forgotten Patel during its tenure! Such gaffes are not uncommon for Modi. Remember his tall claim made at Fergusson college in Pune that China spent 20% of its GDP on education? Not only was that false and embarrassing for Modi, what was doubly so for his party was that the NDA had actually spent less than the UPA on education!

There are several other claims made by Modi that may be qualify as being technically correct, but are complete lies in reality. Like his statement that the NDA delivered 8.4% growth. Yes it did, but only in its last year. Who talks of just one year? If that was the case, the UPA achieved 10%+. One has to talk averages, something that even an ordinary Gujarati businessman would know. But for Modi, that was a matter of detail. Likewise, Modi’s stance on the Lok Ayukta, RTI, CAG etc are all convenient…..with hardly any element of truth in them.

And what about threats? Well, anyone who is on social media knows that Modi’s supporters are loud bullies. They abuse, call people names, and in short try and make them shut up! It’s the same with BJP spokespeople on TV. If a discussion is not going their way, they start interrupting, trying to prevent the opposite viewpoint from being heard by viewers. The same thing happens on ground as well. A simple google search on “Gujarat – Congress protesters” throws up innumerable examples when the Gujarat government has come down strongly against Congress protesters.

This latest example – with the RSS reportedly issuing threats to writer Rupa Subramanya – is perhaps the most pathetic form of fascism ever seen. What did she write to get such threats? The article expresses a fact of history…..that the RSS had committed to Patel that it would not engage in politics as a pre-condition to him revoking the ban on it. In reality, the BJP is being increasingly controlled by the RSS, she opined. Even if the BJP disagrees with this, why should it or the RSS get aggressive with the writer. Surely, there is a basis in history for what she has written. It’s not a figment of her imagination. But then, such arm-twisting is a common part of the RSS/BJP style of working.

This aggro behavior is what the BJP is proud of, not ashamed of. Its verbal attacks on Pakistan and China, its taunting of the extremely decent Manmohan Singh, its abusive dismissal of a Nobel laureate (Amartysa Sen), its constant demands for the PM’s resignation (some 35 times by now) and its muscular blocking of Parliament is all symptomatic of what is clearly a genetic trait of the party.

The real truth is that in a matter of weeks and months, the Modi luster (as seen by BJP supporters) will be off. Expect more lies, gaffes…..and threats in the days to come. All this is being enacted in full media and public glare. The Congress must simply let Modi be…..he will self-destruct.

Lies, gaffes and threats ….what more can we expect from the BJP?

If it weren’t so serious a matter, it would be funny. The messiah of the BJP, it’s sole leader, is already starting to flounder, just six months after he started off on his speeches. For BJP supporters who like to call Rahul Gandhi “pappu”, this might be terrible news, for the moniker is now perhaps more appropriate for their ideologue!

Just look at the incidents of the last few days. First, Modi has been quoted as saying that Nehru never attended Patel’s funeral (though he has tweeted that the newspaper, Divya Bhaskar, had misquoted him and has retracted it…..but there is also a counterpoint made by someone that after scanning all copies of the newspaper in all languages, he has still not seen the retraction). The Congress pounced on it – Digvijay Singh infact posted a video of the funeral. The TOI carried a copy of its edition of that day that showed that Nehru was very much present.

As if that was not enough, Modi’s shenanigan of usurping Patel for himself (ET explains why he’s doing this in today’s edition) became embarrassing when he confused the Sardar’s birth anniversary with his death anniversary which is still some days away. If Modi was so enamoured of Patel, so impressed by his achievements, so inspired by his personality, how could he make such a fundamental blooper?

Then of course the other bloopers – calling Chandragupta Maurya (who lived around 300 BC) part of the Gupta dynasty (which existed between 300-500 AD), saying Alexander the great (will we be allowed to call him great in a Modi run government?!) came as far as the Ganges in the East (when in fact he stopped at Beas), and insisting that Takshashila is in Bihar (when in fact it is in Pakistan). Under normal circumstances, one would simply blame the speech writer and not the speaker himself, but since Modi makes such sharp speeches, attacking one and all, he has to face the embarassment himself.

None of the above qualify for being called a lie though. But Modi’s statement that the Congress had marginalized all national leaders who were not from the Gandhi-Nehru family is a lie, as TOI has brilliantly shown today. In its story titled “Ad bills show UPA did not “forget” Patel”, the paper says that UPA spent Rs 8.5 crores in the last four years on Patel’s birth anniversary ads. For reference, it spent just a shade higher, Rs 9.4 crores on Nehru. So did the Congress “belittle” Patel and “prop up” only Nehru? Now if Modi did not know these facts, why did he make that pompous statement? Again, Modi’s lie ended up embarrassing him as well, since the TOI report showed that it was the NDA that had forgotten Patel during its tenure! Such gaffes are not uncommon for Modi. Remember his tall claim made at Fergusson college in Pune that China spent 20% of its GDP on education? Not only was that false and embarrassing for Modi, what was doubly so for his party was that the NDA had actually spent less than the UPA on education!

There are several other claims made by Modi that may be qualify as being technically correct, but are complete lies in reality. Like his statement that the NDA delivered 8.4% growth. Yes it did, but only in its last year. Who talks of just one year? If that was the case, the UPA achieved 10%+. One has to talk averages, something that even an ordinary Gujarati businessman would know. But for Modi, that was a matter of detail. Likewise, Modi’s stance on the Lok Ayukta, RTI, CAG etc are all convenient…..with hardly any element of truth in them.

And what about threats? Well, anyone who is on social media knows that Modi’s supporters are loud bullies. They abuse, call people names, and in short try and make them shut up! It’s the same with BJP spokespeople on TV. If a discussion is not going their way, they start interrupting, trying to prevent the opposite viewpoint from being heard by viewers. The same thing happens on ground as well. A simple google search on “Gujarat – Congress protesters” throws up innumerable examples when the Gujarat government has come down strongly against Congress protesters.

This latest example – with the RSS reportedly issuing threats to writer Rupa Subramanya – is perhaps the most pathetic form of fascism ever seen. What did she write to get such threats? The article expresses a fact of history…..that the RSS had committed to Patel that it would not engage in politics as a pre-condition to him revoking the ban on it. In reality, the BJP is being increasingly controlled by the RSS, she opined. Even if the BJP disagrees with this, why should it or the RSS get aggressive with the writer. Surely, there is a basis in history for what she has written. It’s not a figment of her imagination. But then, such arm-twisting is a common part of the RSS/BJP style of working.

This aggro behavior is what the BJP is proud of, not ashamed of. Its verbal attacks on Pakistan and China, its taunting of the extremely decent Manmohan Singh, its abusive dismissal of a Nobel laureate (Amartysa Sen), its constant demands for the PM’s resignation (some 35 times by now) and its muscular blocking of Parliament is all symptomatic of what is clearly a genetic trait of the party.

The real truth is that in a matter of weeks and months, the Modi luster (as seen by BJP supporters) will be off. Expect more lies, gaffes…..and threats in the days to come. All this is being enacted in full media and public glare. The Congress must simply let Modi be…..he will self-destruct.

Salute the Sensex’s rise…..not politicize it

As the stock market has rallied from recent lows, there has been a concerted effort by BJP and Modi backers to discredit the performance of the government. Nothing can be far from the truth. The Indian stock markets are responding to the efforts of the government, even as they remain cautious given the generally weak economic conditions in India and worldwide.

Now I know this is political season and such attempts are bound to be made. But sometimes it sounds really funny. Like when the APCO-propped Modi’s supporters made the outlandish claim that the markets were soaring because they were factoring in the victory of Modi in 2014. The publicists managed to even get a foreign analyst (easier to tap maybe!) to say some such rubbish. Poor souls these…..for they fail to understand that what is being seen in India is also being seen around the world. Do they attribute the generally high markets worldwide also to Modi? The US indices are at all time highs, and I guess they will credit Modi for that too!

Today, one analyst has said that the stock market at 21000 is worth just about 13000 odd, thanks to inflation. He is right. But only partly. Why? Because stock market performance must be seen in a global context. Lets take a closer look at how indices have performed worldwide:

BRICS nations: Well, the Brazilian stock index (BOVESPA) is still way off from its peak. It hit a high of 73000 odd sometime in the middle of 2008, and is today at just 54000 odd (26% down). The Russian index (MICEX) hit a high of 1950 around middle of 2008 and is today trading at only 1500 odd (23% down). Take big brother China, the world’s fastest growing economy, and the challenger to the big boss’s throne as it were. Well, its stock market (SSE Composite) is trading nearly 65% off at 2128 odd compared to its high of 6000 hit again around October 2007. The lone exception in the BRICS grouping that is doing better than our sensex is South Africa, whose market (FTSE/JSE) is at a new high of 45000 odd, about 40% higher than the 32000 odd in April 2008.

The developed world: Well, the US is the lone exception in this pack as well. All US indices (Dow, S&P and Nasdaq) are at their lifetime highs, with the Dow about 12% higher at 15680 odd compared to its previous highest around Oct 2007. Of the top four European economies, only the German index (DAX) is trading higher at 9000 odd compared to some 8000 odd around Oct 07. That’s the same 12% odd growth as seen in the case of the US. The UK market as represented by the FTSE 100 is lower than its lifetime high of 6930, barely touching 6777 recently. The French CAC 40 is trading nearly 40% off from its Oct 07 levels of 6100 odd. And the Italian FTSE MIB is way way off from its highest level of 50000, and even its interim high of 44000 odd hit around mid 2007, trading as it is at around 19000 odd.

Asian Tigers: Admittedly, the stock markets of the Asian Tigers are growing faster than India’s with Phillipines, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia all doing better. But then, there are others like Singapore, Hongkong and South Korea which are still considerably off from their highs.

Any discussion of the performance of the sensex should be done in a relative context because we are a part of a global economy. A bulk of the trading on the NSE and BSE is undertaken by FIIs and the factors that affect FIIs are the factors that determine worldwide market performance. The liquidity drive of the US Fed is of course the single most powerful of these factors, and its impact is clearly seen in the rallies in countries in Asia. The other global factor is the firming up of the dollar, not so much because the US economy itself over-performing (it is doing reasonably well), but because of economic turmoil worldwide. A strong dollar, accompanied by it’s recovering economy has led to its stock market overperforming.

Another thing that indicates that politics is there in everything these days, and especially in discussions of the economy, is the way positions on FDI/FII investments change with time. When the FIIs were pulling money out of India around June-July this year, naysayers cribbed. Today, when they are pumping in the money, rather than crediting the Indian government, they are talking about something else – this rubbish about inflation. When the rupee was crashing, the Indian government was at fault, but when it has strengthened, it is the RBI (not the government) that is doing a good job. Such pathetic politics is what has taken the spirits of the country down.

One last point. The Indian growth story is intact, even as there are several challenges in front of us. I plan to write on this later, but just reading The Mint of the last few days shows how the rural sector is booming with everything from income to consumption to HDI to other social indicators improving vastly in the last 7-8 years. The focus of the UPA government has been on this sector as is well known, even though the opposition wont give credit, and regrettably the UPA won’t taking it forcefully.

The real truth is that the crab mentality of Indians, mixed with the acute political bias of some in the business sector, is trying to belittle the efforts of the government in propping up the economy. This bunch of people puts all faults at the government’s doorsteps, and all achievements in the courts of others, including pathetically in those of the PM aspirant, Narendra Modi, who has very little to do in reality. But then what do we expect from someone who’s core identity revolves around #feku?!

Desperate to become PM, Modi even willing to embrace Sardar Patel….

Modi is desperate to become PM. He knows that he can never shed his communal image, thanks to Godhra and much more. Which is why he is taking desperate measures. Including trying to usurp the secular Sardar Patel. Well, the unfortunate thing for Modi is that the world knows too well about what Patel thought of the RSS (he even banned it and held it responsible for Mahatma Gandhi’s murder). What the world may not know is that Patel practiced law in Godhra for several years. How ironical that the man tarnished by Godhra is trying to usurp the one who practiced in that same town. Unfortunately for Modi, in today’s connected world, his sham is visible from a mile.

But the sham is not new. It has been going on for some time now, as Modi has tried to acquire a more secular (or at least, less communal) image. First he stopped talking of Ayodhya (leaving the dirty job to his trusted Amit Shah). Then he went on to say that toilets came before temples (so what if he was copying Jairam Ramesh). Then he invited Muslims to attend his meetings, even doling out burquas and skull caps (so what if he didn’t wear one himself). And now, he is willing – no, make that desperate – to even fete the man who couldn’t tolerate the RSS. Give him some more time, and Modi may even be willing to get himself branded “Mian Modi”! If only all this could make him – somehow, oh Ram, please somehow – make him the PM!

Let’s be clear. Patel had extreme dislike for the RSS. He actually banned it in 1948. Here are some statements made by him in letters which are freely available: On Mahatma Gandhi’s murder: “There is no doubt in my mind the extreme section of the Hindu Mahasbha was involved in this conspiracy”. On the RSS: The activities of the RSS constituted a clear threat to the existence of the Government and the State. His famous “poison” statement: The speeches of the Sangh leaders are poisonous. It is as a result of this venom that Mahatma Gandhi has been assassinated. And shockingly again: The followers of the Sangh have celebrated Gandhiji’s assassination by distributing sweets. And then speaking in the Lok Sabha in August 1950: You must remember that when the Father of the Nation was murdered, it was by a group of people who belonged to that organisation [Hindu Mahasabha]. I am ready to prove to anybody that there was a group of people there who were determined to take his life. That aside, Patel’s views on communal politics were well known.

So where does that leave the RSS? Patel was the bête noire of the RSS. And here, Modi is trying to embrace him. We know Modi is a clever politician. And as a true politician, he doesn’t mind doing anything that gets him the moolah (in this case the PM’s chair). He knows the RSS is a liability, and he is keen to dispense off with it (the Congress is already making 2014 a fight between itself and the RSS). But at the same time, he also knows that he is nobody without the RSS. He has to keep the RSS in good humor. The question is just how far he can push it. A little too far, and he could end up like Advani when he praised Jinnah.

In an ideal world, Modi would like to make the RSS an accomplice in his fake secular strategy. Ideally, he would like to become the “statesman”, rising above communal politics a la Vajpayee, while the RSS and its sister organizations should continue with their own usual activities. This way Modi could secure all the votes – those of the extremes and the secular others.

Unfortunately the RSS is not taking to this very kindly. Somebody in the know told me that Modi’s single minded focus to become PM, even if that means adopting the pet peeves of the RSS, is upsetting it to no end. The RSS realizes that it’s very raison d’etre – that of having a Hindu rashtra – is being played in the game by Modi. How could the RSS tolerate Patel being feted? Has anyone noticed, the RSS has kept a stony silence on this matter? Patel was a  beacon of secularism…..how can the RSS come to terms with him? Remember, Golwalkar, one of the sarsanghchalaks of the RSS, had famously said that the biggest threat India faced was from Muslims (the 2^nd was Christians). In a way, Modi is cocking a snook at the RSS. The RSS knows it has been relegated way below Modi himself to a distant second position (it doesn’t like Modi’s I, me, myself style one bit). What should it do? Play along, or call it all off? For now, it appears the RSS may be willing to play along. For it realizes there is no other leader in the BJP who can take it to power. Once the party comes to power (if it does), they can always decide who to make PM!

The same person in the know also said that most BJP leaders were also opposed to Modi. But since the party’s “cadre” was in favor of Modi (maybe because they were disillusioned with all others?), they had no option but to publicly back him. But if the RSS were to just indicate a little doubt about Modi, these leaders will be out with their barely-concealed knives drawn. Advani, Sushma, Murli Manohar Joshi, Yashwant Sinha will do a flip which will make a roller-coaster feel shy!

The real truth is that Modi is desperate. He doesn’t even mind dancing with the devil. This Sardar Patel event is evidence of that. He will need nimble fingers to handle the RSS, but he knows the RSS’s compulsions. Even the RSS knows it will have to somehow control Modi, but that again is for the later. Both the RSS and Modi, are playing games. Right now, both just want to grab power. After that, they can both revert to what they really are…..minority bashers!

The bogus crowds at Modi’s rallies….

The media is impressed with the turnout at Modi’s rallies and believes that this represents actual support for him and his party. Modi’s PR set-up has again managed to con the media. Because the numbers claimed are hugely exaggerated, the people present in the crowds are often non-voluntary, and the BJP’s interpretation of the high numbers is mostly self-serving and untrue.

At the Patna rally for example, the BJP yet again exaggerated the numbers. It claimed that there were 11 lac attendees. Now a quick search of the internet shows that the capacity of Gandhi Maidan is no more than 2 lacs and even including “spill overs” outside the ground, the crowds cannot be more than a little over that number. So how exactly did the BJP get this number in its head? It’s a bogus number as all of the party’s numbers are!

Another search of the internet will show that when crowds of a million people do assemble, the gathering creates mind-numbing visuals. The crowds go on for kilometers on end and spread out radially in all possible directions (See today’s ET – page 3 – “Did Nehru attend Sardar Patel’s funeral” – it mentions that a million people crowded 6 miles of Bombay’s roads!). It’s impossible for everyone to assemble in a single “ground” – even if it as big as the massive Tiananmen square in Beijing (where a million students had assembled). Gandhi Maidan is no Tiananmem square!

I think the BJP is under some pressure with respect to Modi’s rallies. Somehow, the BJP feels that Modi has to set a record. It’s not enough for him to get the crowds, the crowds must be the biggest ever. Again, the truth is unimportant. The PR is. The crowds must generate a “buzz”. Well, going by media’s reactions, it sure looks like Modi has succeeded. But Modi’s scant belief in truth being well known, one soon starts to wonder just how true these numbers really are!

Then the BJP does another thing. It actually ferries crowds from “neighboring” areas, which in many cases include those outside of the state. Since there are no elections in many of these states (for eg, in UP, adjoining Jhansi where Modi’s next rally is to be held soon), I don’t know how these crowds will vote!

In any case, these crowds are not voluntary crowds. They have been given a free ride into the nearest town (remember, Modi only addresses crowds in the big towns!). It’s a picnic…..why should they object? Everyone has a party when on the trip, with meals and entertainment taken care of by the organizers! They can always go back and vote for their favorite local leader, or the one who pays them for the booze, anyways!

TOI reports on 10^th October (http://tinyurl.com/mwromhk) that the BJP hired 10 trains to ferry people for Modi’s Patna rally. Now assuming the trains are crammed (as they always are in India!), and they have 18 bogies each as the article mentions, then each train could accommodate as many as 2000-2500 people. That’s 20-25000 people coming to Patna just by trains! Add to that 5000 buses reportedly deployed (and there could be many many more), those would ferry another 25-30000 people. So as many as 45-55000 people were ferried from across Bihar (and UP and Jharkhand which don’t even go for polls!) for Modi’s rally at Patna – all free of cost, with no proven proclivity to vote for Modi. For the BJP, it’s the numbers that matter, no matter where they come from, who they vote for and whether they are paid or voluntary!

The article also mentions that Laloo Yadav used to do similar things in the past; the article mentions that he hired as many as 35 trains in 2007 for a rally in Patna. Now I am sure he must have got the crowds, but two things stand out. First, everyone had panned Laloo’s fake crowds then; suddenly they are following in his footsteps! And second, did these crowds vote for Laloo? Not in the 2010 state elections! Not even in the 2009 Parliamentary elections! So much for the crowds assembled via trains and buses!

There is also a competition in the BJP to ensure ever bigger crowds. Apparently for its forthcoming Jhansi rally, the target is go past the “lac-plus” (what is the real number?!) crowd at Kanpur! So the party unit has again ordered a train (http://tinyurl.com/l4trd6x) and several hundred buses! Hope the EC is keeping a tab on expenses!

So how should one interpret these claimed “high” numbers? Does it mean that Modi and the BJP really have a big following? Well, lets take a hypothetical example. Suppose Hitler could be resurrected and he could perform in Mumbai. How many people would turn up to listen to him?! Or if Saddam, Assad or Gaddafi were to deliver speeches in Delhi?! Everyone and his uncle and aunt would turn up because they would all want to see the tyrants who ruled the world for so long. This curiosity wouldn’t be indicative of support at all, as all the above named realized pretty soon! I am not saying Modi is any such person, but his “track record” in Gujarat (I don’t know if it is about development or his Hindu nationalism) does arouse curiosity which draws people to the rallies.

In contrast, Rahul Gandhi is an upright man who speaks from his heart, narrating personal stories from his life; the type that connect with the people. He’s been around a long time, and they already know him well enough. He’s a good orator (maybe not a superlative one like Modi), and one who speaks the truth (again, not like Modi!). Somehow he never learnt lie, though it remains to be seen if lying can win elections. His subjects are more mundane and local – a massive drug problem in Punjab, a huge disenchantment amongst the population of Muzaffarnagar – not pompous statements of future nothings. He gets smaller numbers – 50000 to 1 lac still – but these are genuine numbers, not including those goaded into free buses and trains. His speeches are to the point, laden with facts, and relevant to the people present – not meaningless rhetoric aimed at TV audiences. Besides, Rahul speaks in smaller places; places where TV crews would shudder to go, places where a Modi wouldn’t even know what to speak.

The real truth is that the BJP could be in for a massive surprise if it starts to believe that these concocted crowds are for real! But the BJP is in that mood right now. It has fallen into its own PR trap! It’s position is a little like Anna’s was at his peak. He saw the crowds and thought nothing but the Jan Lokpal would do. Well, very soon, he lost the plot…..Is Modi going down the same path? Only time will tell!

Indian Mujahideen makes Modi’s job easier….

The blasts in Patna yesterday, reportedly carried out by the Indian Mujahideen (IM), must be like manna from the skies for Modi. A few more of these, and his “development” plank would become irrelevant. Even without it, the sole savior of this nation, the only one who can take on such terrorists, would be elected PM.

The IM is a terror organization which the Indian government banned in 2010. Other countries, including NZ and the US, have either banned it or placed it on their watchlist. IM is supposed to be made up of former SIMI terrorists and has been held responsible for several crimes in India. It’s an organization that produces fear in the minds of ordinary Indians. The kind of fear that makes people lose rationality and start surrendering to the divisive agenda of a few political parties (both Hindu and Muslim). It is activities like these blasts that make ordinary Muslims hang their heads in shame, and seethe with anger for the wrong branding the entire community invariably gets. For the majority community, this fear drives them to the waiting arms of the Hindu parties, most notably the BJP.

I wrote this in my post of 27^th July, 2012 “Newton’s third law of motion and Narendra Modi….”: “Newton’s third law of motion states that “every action has an equal and opposite reaction”. Modi’s interpretation of Newton’s 3^rd law should be seen in the context of his political strategy. Incite the Hindus somehow, so that they vote for him en-masse. No where else in the country is the Hindu voter so united and committed behind the BJP as he/she is in Gujarat. None of the caste politics that pervades much of North India even seems to make a beginning in Gujarat. In fact, the Hindu voter has conferred Modi with the title of “Hindu Hriday Samrat” – something that no other politician has managed to earn”. With blasts in Patna, it is the IM which has incited the Hindus, and the opposite reaction will be for Hindus to unite and vote for Modi.

A similar thing happened recently in Muzaffarnagar. Forget who was responsible for the riots there. But the upshot was that the decades old relationship of the Jats with the Muslims was shattered, and their support – on whatever grounds – to Ajit Singh has probably been replaced with support to whoever else – on “religious” grounds. The beneficiary of the Hindu vote is obviously the BJP, as all media outlets and political experts have reported. The Muslims will now probably vote for whoever they think will protect their interests better. A few more blasts and a few more riots, and all of India will be cutting itself up on religious grounds. Willingly or by chance, the BJP will find itself gaining.

Modi’s apologists have already been tweeting the “Modi stayed calm through the whole scene” kind of stories. If by this they mean that Modi wasn’t shaken and stirred out of fear, they are right. But shaken and stirred he must have been out of extreme joy. It was this joy that would have been difficult to mask. Of course, for a good orator like Modi, nothing could have give him more fodder for talk than this. Once someone else has done his work, Modi can actually publicly do the reverse – apply fake balm as he did in his speech – and count on the same apologists to present Modi as the new symbol of peace and unity.

The IM has no business to disrupt Modi’s meetings or harm his followers. It has no business to even have a political view. It forgets that with all its follies, India is not a country that fights its political battles with violence. The opposition to Modi’s brand of politics is an ideological one….and there is no place for a terrorist organization like IM to be a part of it. Whether it is the BJP or the Congress or a 3^rd front government, the IM will always be targeted, and stay banned. Those who oppose the BJP don’t want it to lose because of the activities of outfits like the IM. They want it to lose because of its regressive ideology.

But here’s an important point to consider. Never in any of the past elections have there been such terror attacks on political rallies or riots, especially in rural areas. It’s only now, when Modi has ascended to the top in the BJP, that they have started. What’s the reason for this? Why is it that Modi makes dormant issues of religious divide come alive and become active? I cannot say this with proof but it seems logical that when someone has a past like he has, and when he unabashedly affixes the word “Hindu” before “nationalist”, he arouses those dormant spirits. But then that’s the strategy, isn’t it?

One other debate that must get revived is the need for the NCTC. The IB had apparently, even in this case, given leads to the Bihar police, but without any executive powers, it could do no more. The BJP has to answer why it continues to oppose the NCTC.

The real truth is that with every such incident, Newton’s 3^rd law of physics kicks in, and Modi benefits. “Agitate the Hindus and get their votes” is a sure-to-succeed political strategy. How does it matter who agitates the Hindu???? The IM has given Modi an advantage….