Gadkari’s 2nd term exposes BJP’s faultlines and double-speak….

A few months back, Nitin Gadkari was dead meat. The spate of corruption charges against him – and were some of his acts innovative?! – had made one think that his 1^st term itself might be curtailed. There was absolutely no question of him getting a second term. However, media reports now indicate that not only has he salvaged his first term, he has also become the front runner for a second term. This exposes the faultlines of the BJP’s internal politics, and its double-speak on issues like corruption.

What has changed since the corruption charges emerged of course, is the 3^rd successive win of Narendra Modi in Gujarat and his push for a national role. Any political party, especially one which so proudly claims that it has no pre-set ascendancy plans like the Congress, would have rushed to make Modi the President of the party. But herein lies the rub. Making Modi the party President would put paid to the ambitions of several other PM aspirants. The shrill attacks against the Congress on corruption notwithstanding – its time for some bare-knuckled politics for now!

Modi may be acceptable to the RSS, but he is clearly not their favorite. Between Gadkari and Modi, they like Gadkari more. Gadkari is a Maharashtrian Brahmin, something that gives the RSS immence comfort in itself. Narendra Modi is only an OBC. Further, unlike Modi, Gadkari is not a divisive figure. He’s the classic “light weight” who no one dreads; hence he becomes the most acceptable figure to all.

The clear divide in the BJP is along the Swaraj-Advani v/s Jaitley-Modi axis. Both these sides know that they cannot easily beat the other one. If Modi has a great growth story to sell (much of it wrongly claimed by him as his though), he also has an acute problem with his saffron politics, most unacceptable of them all to Nitish Kumar. Modi’s elevation to the Center is in serious threat, largely because of the BJP’s allies. No one wants Modi to become the PM. Nitish has openly threatened to walk out. An eager Congress, with no hopes of its own in Bihar, has been eyeing the JD(U) opportunity with keen interest.

Nitish Kumar presents an opportunity to Swaraj as well. For Nitish, anyone but Modi is acceptable. To her credit, Swaraj has conducted herself far better as a statesperson than Modi has. She may be a hawk, but she couches her hawkishness in a politically moderate language. She is as fiery an orator as Modi, but her political appeal is more national compared to Modi’s. Swaraj has ruled at the Center in a coalition set up; Modi has always ruled in a huge-majority situation in a single state. Besides, Swaraj is a woman, and she knows how to appeal to women. Modi in contrast is a bit of a problem when it comes to women. The controversy about his wife – does she exist at all? –, his utterances on the anaemic women of his state actually being so because they are beauty conscious and his downright derogatory statement against Shashi Tharoor’s wife are bound to rankle women voters outside Gujarat.

In the fight between Modi and Swaraj, the winner is Gadkari. The BJP must think that it’s ok to live with a tainted President for now. But it’s not ok to have the party split in half which is what would happen if either of them walks out. Gadkari’s elevation then is evidence of the party’s internal struggles, not an assertion of his abilities. No one credits Gadkari with anything the party has achieved in the last three years – least of all the Gujarat success. Gadkari is like Bangaru Laxman who was a complete light weight. Gadkari can never become PM. Gadkari is a threat to no one. No one takes him seriously. He’s the biggest “mukhota” possible. For now, he represents the best possible compromise for the party. Swaraj and Modi will have to wait for a more opportune time to strike.

But what about the party’s stand against corruption? When it has demanded the PM’s resignation some 30+ times, all of them merely on the basis of mere hints of corruption, how can it re-elect a President who is accused of far more serious corruption charges? But the party learnt to make compromises much earlier, when it tolerated Yeddy and the Reddy brothers forever. Eventually, it was Yeddy who left the party; not the party that sacked him. And if he decides to return, the party will undoubtedly plan a grandiose welcome back for him. Likewise, in the Lokpal matter, the party turned its back on Anna after first backing him, on the key issue of whether the Lok Ayuktas should be part of the Central Lokpal Act. In Gujarat, the party had no qualms about not having a Lok Ayukta for the last 8 years; and when it was eventually compelled to have one, it tried to foist a pliant man for the position. Oh have no doubts….the BJP learnt to make compromises with corruption a long while back.

That brings the focus back on what the party really stands for. It’s Hindutva image has become a liability, except in Gujarat and maybe MP. Hindutva has of late, meant disapproving allies, and regressive cultural symbolism, exemplified by the likes of Asaram and Mohan Bhagwat. If its not Hindutva, what else can it be? Corruption it cannot be as discussed above. It could have been growth, taking from Modi’s track record, except that the party has shot itself in the foot by opposing the reforms of the Congress. Since September last year, the Congress has wrested the growth mantle from the BJP. It cannot even be national security, since the BJP today propounds a hawkish policy, while its most successful leader ever Vajpayee, was the dove who brokered the 2003 LOC ceasefire which has saved 10000 soldier lives till date (read today’s Indian Express – Shekhar Gupta’s editorial page article). The party doesn’t know where to stand on Pakistan. Today, BJP supporters are a confused lot – the party is behaving a lot like Mamata Banerjee, an expert at opposing, but a total failure at constructive suggestions.

Gadkari’s 2^nd term will give the Congress a fresh lease of life. For in the end, the people have to choose between available alternatives. If all of them are equally corrupt, or at least equally tolerant of corruption, then they might as well choose someone who is less communal. Not surprising then that the Congress openly declared yesterday at Jaipur that it was hunting for allies.

The real truth is that Gadkari’s 2^nd term is indicative of fractious internal politics of the BJP, not an endorsement of his capabilities. It marks a new low for the party. The party has yet again killed its anti-corruption credentials. Its bad days for the country’s leading opposition party….

Good decision to increase diesel prices….Congress shows its mettle

The government yesterday decided to increase the price of diesel, ever so gradually, till the total subsidies bill reduces to a specified maximum that it is comfortable with. Further, it gave a hint that prices will keep increasing, albeit gradually; maybe 50 paise or 1 rupee a month till the subsidy objective is met. This decision by itself was quite unremarkable, considering how much anticipation there has already been about it. What was remarkable however was the determination the Congress has shown in an election year to take tough decisions. What was even more remarkable (and distasteful as always) was the pathetic politics and even more pathetic TV journalism that followed.

Let me start with the decision to increase diesel prices first. Diesel cannot be subsidized for ever. Nothing can ever be subsidized for ever. What people – even the educated middle class – don’t understand is that when diesel is subsidized, someone still has to pay for the subsidy. Usually, it is someone other than the actual user of the fuel. The urban scooter driver – the quintessial middle class – who has nothing to do with diesel pays for the subsidy the SUV owner gets. How? In the form of the consequent higher interest rates that affect everything he consumes. And how does this happen? Through a circuitous route. Basically, as subsidies increase, the government has to borrow more, so the fiscal deficit goes up, leading to higher interest rates, affecting everything (not even related to diesel) becomes expensive. This affects the richest (SUV driver) as well as the poorest (in the form of higher consumer prices). The opposite happens when subsidies (and deficit) reduce. Want proof? Diesel prices went up “shockingly” in Sept 2012 (by Rs 5, or some 12%). It has been 4 months since; surely enough time for the full effect to be felt. But inflation has only come down. Its at a 3-year low now at some 7% odd. If prices increase slowly, nothing will even be felt. Except of course, for the cacophony from the opposition and the TV channels!

We don’t give them the credit but our politicians are real smart; unlike our TV anchors who are mostly ignorant. Politicians present one side of the story, as it suits them. They talk of “everything becoming expensive because diesel affects the transport sector” but they don’t talk of the “positive effect of reducing fiscal deficit and hence interest rates” because their job is to attack the ruling party. The job of the opposition is to oppose – so said the great Yashwant Sinha. I guess, one has to assume it implies that logic and reasoning is un-important; only opposing is. But what about our TV anchors who are honest enough to admit that they are not economists, yet have no shame in engaging in discussions with noted experts? Anchors believe their job is to raise froth; and they do just that.

So look at how incongruous the debates are becoming. Had the government not increased diesel prices, it would have been called “soft”, having “one eye on the elections”, “harming the country” in the process. Now that it has increased diesel prices, it is “against the middle class”! When the government increased diesel prices by 5 rupees in one shot, it was a “huge burden on the people”. When it increases prices by less than 1 rupee a month, it is still a “huge” burden! When the price increases by 5 rupees, “inflation will shoot up” (but we know it doesn’t!); when it increases by less than a rupee, “inflation will still shoot up”! When the government doesn’t act, “it is in a paralysis”. When it acts, it is “in a rush”! And most hilariously, when it doesn’t increase prices, it is “taking India to a junk bond status”; when it does, it is acting to “please the ratings agencies”! Ridiculous, irresponsible and condemnable. One of the TV anchors was so puerile as to behave like a rabid bulldog. Looks like he drives an SUV! Fortunately the other anchors were a lot more reasonable, analyzing for a change, and appreciating the courageous decision.

The only ones who had a right to complain yesterday were the Left parties and Mamata’s TMC. They have no qualms about publicly admitting that their economic policies are sepia tinted. They have “I am economically regressive” tattooed on their foreheads. Why blame them? But what about the BJP? The BJP in its time had itself de-regulated diesel pricing. It was a good decision. If the Congress had stayed with it, the price of diesel would have been the same as petrol today. Now when the party is finally undoing its wrong policies, the BJP should have been gloating that the government is admitting it’s mistake. Instead, it is accusing the Congress of increasing prices, and basically adopting a BJP policy! The BJP has the ability to prove again and again that it doesn’t know its *** from its elbow!

Essentially, the BJP doesn’t say it, but what it would like to do is to cut the spending plan. It would like to undo the NREGA. It would like to remove food subsidies (and let the poor rot). It would like to mollycoddle the urban middle class, like Obama does in the US. The party fails to understand that the middle class in the US is really the “lowest class” in the US (it’s a euphemism for the poor), and hence favoring the middle class is a good political strategy. In India, the middle class is actually the “well off” top 15-20%. The aam aadmi is not a middle class fellow….he is a poor rural person….the 80% at the bottom....who the BJP simply doesn’t bother about. In a similar vein, Chetan Bhagat talks about this lowest class of people in last Sunday’s TOI “Open letter to the Indian change seeker”.

I am hopeful now that the extremely rigid and frigid Mr Subba Rao, Governor of RBI, will do his share of the work. He just has to lower interest rates. That will remove any chances of higher inflation. Mr. Rao has to ask himself this: When he lowered interest rates by half % in April 2012. Why did inflation not go up? Why did it actually come down? If his thinking was so perfect, then inflation should have increased, right? Has he got the guts to analyze and accept that there may be a different understanding possible? The art of governance is in trying new things….of constantly improving….not in following decades old theories by rote. Well, Mr. Rao will have his time under the sun at the end of the month. We’ll see if he is capable of courage.

The real truth is that the diesel price hike (as also the Railways price hike) is great for the economy. The Congress government – freed from the burden of partners like the TMC – has shown its liberal economic credentials. And its astuteness in running the economy. It’s clear now. The “paralysis” of the past was imposed on it by its partners. If they had had their way earlier, they would have spurred growth much earlier. They would have had liberal policies in banking, finance, insurance and pension sectors. They would have passed the GST and the Direct Tax code.….

Ignoring is bliss….Let Pakistan stew in its own juice

There are a hundred distractions a fast developing country like India faces in its journey to becoming the world’s largest economy. Some of these distractions are in the form of provocations from neighbors like Pakistan. In the long run, ignoring such provocations is the best strategy.

We’ve seen this when growing up. A bright student is often distracted by friends who have nothing better to do in life; who know their own academic limitations. Another bright student never distracts this bright student; only the losers do. It is in the best interest of this bright student to ignore the overtures of the miserable lot. Not doing so harms only the bright student. The others have nothing to lose anyways. It is pointless even to attempt responding to these distrative forces, or trying to reason with them. Ignoring is best.

The story is no different with India and Pakistan. India is that bright student waiting to take its place on the global high tables of business. Its economy is already in the top 10; in PPP terms it is already in the top 3. It’s the country which everyone is counting on worldwide to deliver growth. They say China may outgrow India for a few more years; but eventually no one can stop India’s rise to the top of the charts. India’s been likened to an elephant in the past – and when the elephant goes prowling, even the tigers go hiding! And just like an elephant rarely gets provoked, and goes about its job with a routine, efficient monotony, so must India.

Pakistan is nothing but an irritating fly. Trying to swat it will be nothing more than a waste of time. Pakistan’s is a failed economy. In a world blessed with large dollops of global cash flows thanks to waves of US quantitative easing, Pakistan has still managed to grow at less than 5% over the last decade. Pakistan’s main pre-occuptation – when it is not propping up its sham democracy – is battling the various secessionist forces within its borders, defending itself from worldwide scorn for its alliances with all sorts of militant groups, and begging the US for more funds under some or the other excuse. The only time Pakistanis are in the news is when someone is arrested on Times Square in New  York or when he is illegally exporting stolen nuclear technologies to other rogue states. The whole existence of Pakistan is a question mark. No one can be sure it will continue to exist as one entity in the future. For all we know, it may implode and break into several small fragments of death and gloom.

Why should India give such a failed neighbor any more importance than the minimum required? We can live without the sporting ties; yes they have some good cricketers, but the world learnt to live without an apartheid South Africa for so many years. We can live without their musicians; in any case, we are the ones who give their artists a market and a modicum of credibility. We can live without their tiny markets; in any case our exporters have the whole world to export to. And yes, we can live with their barbarism; our army should take out their puny military.

None of us must concern ourselves with Pakistan beyond this. Let Pakistan suffer from being ignored. Have you noticed what is the best way to treat a trouble maker? Its to ignore him. Or under major provocation, give him a quick sharp jab and knock him down. Our army can do that. As a when Pakistan realizes the importance of being called India’s friend, we can show them mercy.

They can call China their friend, but China knows that it has no option but to engage with India. They can call the US their friend, but they saw recently when the Indo-US like deal was denied to them that the US can be ruthless. They can call Saudi Arabia their friend, but Indian diplomacy is enough to make that country hand over Fasih Mohammad, an IM terrorist, despite Pakistani behind-the-scenes lobbying. They can call the Taliban, the mujahideen, and all the Lashqars, Harkats and Jamaats their buddies, but they’ve learnt that these friends can be easily made to turn on them with the lure of a few dollars.

India must not get distracted from its destiny. We have green shoots emerging that we need to nurture. We have a vibrant democracy that we need to strengthen. We have democratic institutions that have delivered in the past, but we need to contemporarize them. We have elevated hundreds of millions from poverty, but we have a few more hundred left to lift out. We are a $2 trillion economy, but we’ve 20 trilliong more to produce to become the world’s numero uno. Nothing should distract us; least of all a loser like Pakistan.

The real truth is that its time to pull back from the brink and let the army handle the border conflict. Our media needs to pull back as well; and so do our people. All of us have our jobs cut out. We need all hands on the deck…..

Give the Pakistanis a bloody eye….not a mouthful

It looks like everyone in India is into full scale war mongering. At the same time, all of them end up by saying that neither is war the solution, nor is it imminent. But if anyone has any doubts about how wars start, they should go back and research the verbal dogfights that typically take place before any war starts. War mongering leads to war. If war is not our intention and only teaching Pakistan an appropriate lesson is, then we should go about the job silently. Coming on TV and issuing public threats is unbecoming of the proud and brave army and our strong nation.

General Bikram Singh himself made some media statements yesterday, urging his troops to respond in a measured and effective way. Very good….but isn’t this best stated in an internal memo to his commanders? He also urged his seniors to be aggressive; not passive. Very good and that’s exactly how the Indian army should respond. My concern is that the Indian army chief should be staying behind a shroud of deathly silence….something that fills the opposite party with fear….not be talking to the Indian public directly over media. He has a job to do and nothing – including the media outrage against the beheading of our soldiers – should distract him from that.

Because once General Singh gets embroiled in media relations, he will face the same pressure as our politicians face when discussing sensitive subjects like these – to be jingoistic. General Singh is reported to have accused Pakistan of outright lies. Now we know our neighbor very well. They will do what they have to do to foment trouble for India in any sphere possible. But the response that it should draw from our army establishment is a sharp counter-attack; strong enough to rattle the Pakistani warlords; yet measured enough not to escalate the matter. The response must be firm; so that the counter party thinks ten times before mounting another veiled attack. The problem with media statements is that they don’t have any real sting. The TV anchor – and maybe the people at large – feel happy to hear them, but that hardly provides the solution we seek – a stoppage of the Pakistani adventurism.

In contrast, the Israeli army would have punched right back, without making so much media noise. They would have silently achieved what they wanted to achieve. And they would have instilled enough fear in Hamas and other militant groups to make them think twice for a long time. The saying “Barking dogs seldom bite” comes to mind here. Let’s not become barking dogs; let’s be the piranha fish who can finish off an opponent in minutes. But piranhas don’t advertise their abilities. They demonstrate what they can do.

Our politicians are no less. For them, the goal is 2014 and this border skirmish provides another opportunity to achieve success in that year. Sushma Swaraj’s jingoistic statement that if Pakistan did not return the head of our soldier, we should go and get 10 heads of theirs is totally unnecessary. She has nothing to do except make such inflammatory speeches and go into hiding. Should such statements lead to war, she will scoot and run away. That’s what her partyfolks did when the Babri Masjid came tumbling down after vicious, communal speeches were made by Advani and co. This is time for Sushma Swaraj to confabulate with the PM behind the scenes. Let her show her mettle by giving suggestions to teach Pakistan a lesson. The country notices. We need strong leaders, and if Swaraj did this, she would emerge stronger. And her party will win our hearts.

There is equally no need for Shiv Sena to ratchet up the same rhetoric everytime. That the Pakistani hockey players are not welcome to play in the Indian Hockey League. Now this is way over the top. The trick is to teach Pakistan a lesson where it hurts; not go after ordinary folks who we hear repeatedly, wish for good relations with India. All reports – including the one from Bachi Karkaria recently, which I heard on TV – suggest that the Pakistani people quite like us guys. Letting off on them won’t serve any purpose. The villain is their army and their political class. Let’s teach them a lesson. But let’s show our large heartedness on such issues. We rub shoulders with the leaders of the G-20; how can we stoop to such street fights with petty neighbors?

For the Congress to support the Shiv Sena is equally criminal. The party’s own government is in power. How can the ruling government rail against something that it itself controls and runs? Its like Mamata Banerjee railing against her cops. She can simply take them to task. The Congress government – if it wanted to stop the Pakistani sportspeople – should have just stopped them. Without making the noise that it made yesterday.

Both sides also have to think of the  consequences of a large scale conflagration. Pakistan is a country on the brink of collapse (if it hasn’t already collapsed). India is poised to re-take its place in history. Recent reports indicate that the economy is staging a smart recovery. The stock markets are booming. India’s place on the high table of global politics and economics is ready for us to occupy. Both countries need to be mindful of their destinies. Both countries need to show maturity. But if Pakistan doesn’t have the strength of conviction to do, that should not deter us from doing so.

What we certainly don’t need is what is put out on a particular TV channel every night in prime time. There is this ugly spectre of chauvinism created by ex army folks and the so called experts (the anchor believes he is one too, though he keeps repeating he is not) of both sides which is completely nonsensical. We cannot call open war mongering good journalism. We cannot allow our airwaves to be used for hurling open threats at each other. Can you imagine – even during the Cold war – Russian military officials coming on Fox News and threatening the Americans of dire consequences? This kind of absurd programming is all too common on Indian TV channels. This has to stop immediately.

The real truth is that a short-duration, surgical, focused attack from the Indian army accompanied by a determined, strong-willed, unified political response is what we need to give the Pakistanis. Teach them a lesson; silently and quickly. Let them lick their wounds for a while. But do it without the rhetoric. Keep media out of this….

Higher taxes on the rich….another blunder waiting to happen

We have the penchant for making economic blunders. We do it all the time. We have this unique inability to take tough, rational decisions and prefer taking soft, irrational ones instead. By subsidizing diesel prices and increasing petrol prices, we have created an artificial gap between the two equal fuels, and created a bizarre situation where urban car buyers are buying diesel cars for all the wrong reasons. We have also managed to do the same thing with our Railways. We have kept increasing freight charges because that is politically easy to do, but we haven’t increased passenger fares for nearly a decade. As a result, freight rates are so high that the business has become uncompetitive v/s road transport, and still the Railways suffers from low revenues.

We are all set to make the same mistake with our income tax policy now. There is a buzz that some influential sections of the bureaucracy – including the Chairman of the PM’s Economic Advisory Council C Rangarajan – are in favor of increasing the tax rates in the highest slab (above Rs 8 lacs annual salary). The proposal is bizarre – to increase highest rates to 40% from the present 30%. Add surcharge, and effective tax rates would climb to 44% from the present 33%. Of course, there are some tax benefits available to tax payers, but even so, the highest tax rate will come to more than 35-38% depending on the exact income of the person and exact benefits availed.

This is no doubt inspired by a similar move the US has recently taken – increasing the highest tax slab to some 39.6% from the erstwhile 35% (add up to 15% for state taxes taking the total to 54.6% now). Indians are very good at aping the West, and this move of Indian bureaucrats to ape the US is no different. What is being lost in the process is objectivity, and rational thinking, for the case of the US is totally different from that of India.

For one, the US is in a different league of countries that it competes with. The US is essentially a knowledge economy – it’s a world leader in technology, telecommunications, defence, basic sciences and engineering. Its peers are largely countries of Western Europe and Japan and a few others. When the US increases tax rates, it has to keep in mind comparable taxes in these countries. And the tax rates in these countries are far higher than they are in the US (Europe in particular has rates higher than 50% in the highest slabs; in France it is a crazy 70%). So if flight of capital and entrepreneurs takes place at all, it is unlikely to be very significant since the options are hardly attractive. Businesses and entrepreneurs are likely to complain, but they will stay put. At best, the low end businesses manufacturing driven businesses may migrate to Asia where tax rates are lower. In other words, the US can perhaps absorb the higher tax rates.

The same is not true for India. The comparable set of countries for India are China and those in SE Asia. In all of these countries, the tax rates are lower than those prevailing in India. The top rate in our South East Asian competitors like Singapore is 20%, Malaysia 26%, Indonesia 30% and Phillipines 32%. Our neighbors have low tax rates as well: Sri Lanka and Pakistan 35%, Nepal and Bangladesh 25%. In comparable BRIC nations, the highest tax rate in Brazil is 27.5% and in Russia it is 13%. Only in China is the highest rate higher at 40%, but then China is a different ball game entirely…..no country in the world can compare itself or model itself on China. If India were to increase tax rates, it will take only a few moments for capital and entrepreneurs to migrate abroad. Already, thanks to the rampant bureaucracy in India, the shortage of electricity, the land acquisition problems and the general harassment meted out to business folks, big industry is talking of moving out of India. Increase rates, and the exodus will begin in right earnest.

We must remember that India is essentially a low-end economy. Our biggest success has been the BPO sector – which is nothing but a play of labor arbitrage. Our second biggest success has been in IT services, but again, we are competing largely on the back of lower rates. We still don’t have any branded IT products, for which we can command price premiums. All our work is “contractual” by nature and the IP continues to be owned by US and European clients, not by our IT companies. Likewise, in manufacturing, a bulk of the product technologies and brands belong to foreigners. We are merely a manufacturing base. We are hardly in a position to put stiff terms on MNCs to set shop here.

The only redeeming factor for India is the vast domestic market that we offer to foreign products. This market is extremely attractive to Indian and foreign businesses. This is why we have continued to grow inspite of all the problems mentioned above, and in spite of the already high taxation rates. Increase the rates and that may be the proverbial last straw on the camel’s back. Foreigners would rather manufacture abroad and export the goods into India, what with customs duties far more favorable today.

So the case of the US is totally different from the case of India. We must also not forget that there is rampant corruption in India. The way to increasing tax collection in India is to reduce tax rates, so that people feel like paying up. If tax rates go up, to the levels that existed before Chidambaram rationalized them a decade back, there will be again be rampant evasion of taxes. Corruption in the IT department will increase exponentially. It will mean a reversal of all the smart IT laws India has followed in the last decade. It simply doesn’t make any sense at all.

I hope good sense prevails. This government is known to make blunders….and after taking those flawed decisions, it reverses them. We saw this happen with retrospective taxes where everyone is scurrying around to allay fears of aggressive tax action. The same also happened with GARR with Chidambaram undoing the mess that Pranab Mukherjee left behind.

The real truth is that we need lower taxes, not higher. Besides, we don’t need higher tax rates to increase our tax collections. We need better compliance. We need to tax everyone evenly. The rich amongst the farmers must be brought into the tax net – so many of the wealthy people are abusing this provision. Rather than creating arbitrary and unsustainable quirks in the tax system, it is important that we make the system simple. Increasing taxation arbitrarily for the rich may be politically expedient, but will damage Indian economy enormously….

Vibrant Gujarat – more PR, less actual action….

Every two years, Modi organizes the Vibrant Gujarat summit. It is supposed to be India’s answer to Davos, a coming together of India’s biggest business leaders who commit lacs of crores of rupees of investments to the state. Very little of this investment actually materializes. Of late, as this has become clear, the bi-annual gathering of the rich and the famous has become more of a “chamchagiri (sucking up)” event, with Modi soliciting encomiums from his industrialist friends.

Recent reports indicate that the investment commitments are a sham. From the commitments made in 2009, only 8.5% of actual realization has happened. This is shocking considering that 4 years is a long enough time for any investment plan to kick in. But both the sides – Modi and the industrialists – know that Vibrant Gujarat is nothing more than a PR event. There is nothing real about it. Industrialists feel comfortable making tall claims….knowing that they are expected to and don’t have to follow them through. It’s just Modi’s strategy – yet another PR event – to show how fast the state has been prospering economically under his watch.

Again, as is true of most claims that Modi makes, the truth is hardly important when it comes to economic growth figures. In fact, the figures are revealing. Under Modi’s tenure, in the last 8 years, Gujarat’s growth rate has been just a shade over the national average – some 6.5% compared to some 6% for the whole country. In the last five years as well, Gujarat’s growth has only been slightly higher than the national average. Hardly enough for Modi to sit atop the high perch that he likes to, and hardly adequate for Anil Ambani to call him the “king of kings”. In fact, the growth of other larger-than-Gujarat states (remember a larger state finds it more difficult to grow faster) like Maharashtra and TN has been higher than Gujarat’s. And they have achieved these growth rates without the same noise that Modi has been making. So the Ambanis and the Adanis and the Tatas are happy to shower praise on Modi, but the reality is that there is very little follow-up they do after they have left the borders of the state.

What the industrialists are more interested in Gujarat really is the entrepreneurial spirit of the Gujaratis. And the equally commendable work spirit of the Gujarati workers. Gujarat has traditionally had few labor troubles (no thanks to Modi), and that has always attracted industrialists. One of the reasons for the Tatas to choose Gujarat over any other state (Haryana especially) is this. Gujarat has traditionally had good roads (for at least the last 30 years – I say this from personal experience) and a good power situation (again, for at least the last 30 years) – this helps Gujarat trump other industrialized states like TN and Maharashtra. There is also a certain efficiency in the Gujarati bureaucracy which helps faster decision making. This should not be taken as meaning an absence of corruption, for the level of corruption is actually quite high, but simply as an attitude of post-pay-off efficiency that Gujaratis are famous for. Once the money transfers hands, the work gets done efficiently unlike in other states where the problems never cease. Not surprising then that Gujarat is an industrialized state. It is this that attracts the industrialists, not Modi or his Vibrant Gujarat. Even in the days when there was no Vibrant Gujarat, there was strong investment in the state. Vibrant Gujarat is a publicity stunt; another trick to propel Modi onto the central stage. It’s a nautanki meant to bedazzle the public; once it’s over the industrialists go away, but the public will retain the memory of numbing numbers.

This year, the media seems to have caught on with this truth. No longer then the front page stories for this. TOI has tucked a small story in the inside pages. And even in these inside-page stories, there is mention of the non-existent investments from previous editions of the event. Journalists are also starting to compare the real growth in Gujarat with other big states. And more and more attention is being drawn to the inequitable growth in the state. With the appointment of the Lok Ayukta finally taking place in the state, there is a buzz that a skeletons will soon start to tumble out of Modi’s closets. Big industrialists – Modi’s favorites – are expected to be exposed for what they are. Modi’s big wish is that before all this happens, he should be safely ensconced in Delhi.

This is not to criticize Modi or the Vibrant Gujarat event itself. Modi is a savvy politician and that’s very good. Vibrant Gujarat provides Gujarat with a sheen that enables it to compare itself with Singapore and China. There may be other industrialized states as well, but the buzz generated is all by Gujarat. That’s always a smart thing for any CM to achieve. So the purpose of this post is not to criticize the event per se. The purpose is to expose the truth for what it is. Modi overdoes the PR, and someone needs to bring the truth out. The event is good, but it does not make Gujarat, Davos. The investments are still highly credible, but that does not reduce the efforts of the silent others. The event shows Modi’s bias for growth, but it does not make him any more eligible to be PM than the several other political do-gooders. Nitish Kumar may still be a much better bet for PM than Modi.

The real truth is that Vibrant Gujarat fails to impress, when one looks at its actual performance. It’s packaging is awesome, and marketing even better, but the content is rather weak. The lead actor (Modi) is India’s buzziest, but his acting in this show is below par. There is much noise but little genuine action.…..

Why border issues with Pakistan should not be discussed on TV….

The mindless TV debates just wont stop. TV channels have found a new topic in the recent border conflict between India and Pakistan to hold the attention of their audiences for a few more days. It almost appears like they heaved a sigh of relief when the story came about – for TV channels look for new fuel all the time – the Delhi rape story was fading out very quickly. Soon as this one fades, TV channels will hope for another sensational story breaking. And the TV business will continue. For TV is nothing but a business. The one thing that it surely isn’t is good quality journalism.

TV anchors love anything that can arouse the passion of their viewers. They loved Anna because he was old and frail and wore a Gandhi topi. When he fasted, there was the real fear that he may lose his life. That was enough for our TV channels. They gave him minute-by-minute coverage. When he ran to escape rain showers at Raj Ghat, they made that into a promo that ran a thousand times. After all, an old man running for cover was quite a sight. TV channels didn’t bother to discuss how silly some of the recommendations of Anna’s version of the Lokpal bill was. That was thought to be too serious; not enough fun. When Kejriwal started putting out names of powerful people to shame them, TV channels gave him “guest of honour” status. After all, who doesn’t like slander? It was a sure shot way to get eyeballs. But the biggest draw on TV is always crime. Crime of any sort. The Delhi rape proved that. None of the TV channels was interested in a serious debate on the real issues. They were interested in covering the protests….for that was good drama. Surely during those elaborate two weeks, TV channel TRPs must have soared. Now the story of the beheading of an Indian soldier has its job to do. TV is a tough business.

The only job Indian TV channels do is to present one side of the story. They do this intentionally….to raise the pitch. By presenting India as a “victim”, they provoke Indian viewers to feel angry. They show the other side as an vicious aggressor, who entered our territory to attack us. They build a scenario in which every nationalistic Indian is almost forced to see his adrenaline level rising. Not that Pakistan is not guilty of all this, but the tempo is raised to such a pitch that a frenzy builds. The whole news show is actually drama, not news at all. But since it is shown on a news channel, most poor viewers are made to believe that its news.

TV channels should not even be allowed to discuss subjects such as border issues. The reasons are several:

·        India is always shown to be a poor victim. Does it ever occur to these omniscient TV anchors that maybe India is a savvy aggressor as well. If they tracked Pakistani media, they would realize this. The Pakistanis have been trying to say for a few days now that Indian troops attacked them a few days back. Apparently, we entered their side of the border and killed a few of their soldiers. This is entirely believable. India is the big daddy in this geography. It is not a paper tiger as our TV channels make it out to be; our army is an efficient fighting machine; not one that will sit still and watch itself being mauled. Get real anchors.

·        Nor is our political establishment (and I don’t want to differentiate between NDA and UPA here) as weak kneed as these sensation-mongering anchors would make us believe. Our TV anchors like to present our political establishment as being corrupt, and weak, and anti-nationalistic and so on. For them, a peace initiative is a sign of weakness. But if Pakistani media is to be believed, India is anything but. They hold India guilty of fomenting trouble in Balochistan. It’s like reverse-Khalistan. They call this India’s vendetta against Pakistan. Is India capable of doing this? Of course it is. Is it really doing it? No one knows. It’s a national secret. Is our RAW a lame-duck spy organization full of spineless sleuths? C’mon, get real. Don’t expect government officials to come to TV shows and assure the country that “Don’t worry. We are also doing the same to them”. Some things are best left out of media.

·        Then again, our TV channels do not understand how complicated international issues can be. Take Kashmir. It is hardly an open-and-shut case. The history of Kashmir is complex. If you read Ramachandra Guha’s “India after Gandhi”, it provides a brilliant insight into the situation of those days. Unlike Hyderabad and Junagadh which fully acquiesced to Indian control, Kashmir never did. I don’t want to go into too many details myself, but suffice it to say that India played some cards right; some wrong. As a result, the issue is not as simple as it appears to most Indians. For our TV anchor to scream on TV that “Kashmir is an Indian state” is utter ignorance and extremely dangerous.

·        Our anchors don’t even know how to moderate their shows. When the Pakistanis (as so many other) guests say that the anchor doesn’t even allow them to speak, the anchor wears that accusation as a badge of honor. Apparently, he is the “tough judge” who won’t allow a “scheming lawyer” to utter lies and distract from the subject. Hello….but who gave the anchor that role? It’s the anchor who is dumb; not the guest.

Take another example. India accuses Pakistan of not putting the breaks on Hafeez Saeed – for publicly giving hate speeches against India. But what about our TV anchors? They give hate speeches against Pakistan on TV. Only a few thousand watch Sayeed. How many millions watch our anchors????

Someone asked me why people watch such channels if they feel the way I do. Well, they don’t. TV viewership data shows that most people don’t watch these channels. Compared to the number 1 Hindi GEC, Star Plus, the number one English news channel gets 0.47% viewership. But its not that there are so few Indians who understand English. Look at data from newspapers. The number 1 English newspaper (TOI) has some 46% readership of the number 1 Hindi newspaper (Jagran). This despite the fact that Jagran has so many more editions than TOI. This proves that it is not English which acts as a barrier, it is the content on our news channels which does so. Shall I prove the point further? Even the number 1 Hindi news channel (Aaj Tak) only manages 10% of the number Star Plus. If language was the issue, then Aaj Tak should have done much more right?

The real truth is that this kind of jingoism just has to stop. Especially on our TV channels. A hateful neighbor is bad enough. We don’t need hateful TV anchors also. These TV anchors cannot even be called news editors, yet they like to call themselves that. They are at best horror specialists who should work for Balaji Telefilms. They make outstanding drama, but they call it news. They are cheating their audiences. Can we have some self-regulation here please????