“Conspiracy Theory” playing on TV news channels….

I am of course referring to the 1997 thriller called Conspiracy Theory starring Mel Gibson and Julia Roberts. Mel Gibson’s character believes everything is a conspiracy including absolute crazy stuff like NASA plotting to kill the US President using some earthcause-causing secret weapon! It’s no different in modern day India today with TV news channels seeing conspiracies in everything. There is a conspiracy in why the monsoons are delayed; why the rupee is crashing against the dollar, why Mahesh Bhupathi and Rohan Bopanna don’t want to play with Lee…..there is a conspiracy in everything! Not surprising then that TV news channels found a conspiracy in the fire that gripped Mantralaya – the Maharashtra government’s seat of power.

As government officials rushed to deny these conspiracy theories, certain TV channels (especially one I call Scam TV that has “conspiracy” inscribed into its genes) started asking why the government was in such a rush to deny a conspiracy theory! Nice. Had the government not come forward to clarify, the same channels would have said “See, no one in the government is coming out and saying anything. These theories must be true!” The same thing happened recently during the Coalgate allegations, when the opposition demanded that an enquiry be ordered. When the government didn’t initially order the enquiry, the conspiracy was that the government was trying to hide the facts. When it did eventually order it, the conspiracy theorists claimed that their accusations must be true, because “why else would the government order an enquiry”! No one wants to wait for the investigations; for the results to come. Everyone believes everyone is corrupt and everything is a scam.

It hardly mattered to the TV channels that just like they were accusing the government of hushing up conspiracy theories, they too could be accused of amplifying them in the first place. To be sure, media never makes its own controversies, only provides a platform for others to publicize theirs. Apparently some opposition leaders first claimed this fire was intentionally set so that the Adarsh scam papers could be destroyed. As soon as the CM clarified (and the CBI reaffirmed) that those papers were in order, the highly creative conspiracy-writers moved on to other “important” documents that had been gutted. In modern day India, this is what media has become. A platform for absolutely unproven and slanderous charges to be freely made. For irresponsible politics to be openly practiced in front of a shocked nation.

That is why it is always better to read newspapers than to watch news channels. The TOI gives a balanced reporting of the fire. It gives more details….when the fire started, how it started, how many fire brigades turned up, when did they turn up, how many people were inside the building, which ministers were there and not there, etc etc. It also mentioned that many documents had been destroyed as they would be in any fire. It did mention the conspiracy theory, but only in a small way in the inset (table). Very importantly, the TOI raised its voice against the ill-preparedness of the authorities to tackle a fire in even the most important of all government buildings. In my mind, the TOI’s coverage was honest and unbiased. In contrast, TV channels glossed over all the mundane details; focusing almost entirely on the conspiracy.

In the inside pages, the TOI did dwell on the conspiracy theory a bit more. “Speculation was rife through the day whether the fire was an accident or an act of sabotage carried out to destroy documents relating to crucial cases and projects.” That’s an honest statement to make. There were conspiracy theories floating around, but the TOI did not lend those theories any credibility by endorsing them. Again it mentioned that “Officials stressed that Adarsh records can be recovered from the CBI or the two-member judicial commission; CBI officers too maintained that they have all the “requisite documents necessary to file a chargesheet”. The farthest the paper went was to say that “Still, conspiracy theories raged over the cause of the inferno. Many wondered if the secretariat was sabotaged to rid of records maintained by the urban development department of real estate proposals and projects.” At no point did it sensationalize the subject.

In contrast, TV channels, especially Scam TV, had already pronounced the verdict. It cooked up some “Rs 25000 crores worth of scams” that were being probed. I have never heard of this, nor do the papers mention this. And when the CBI officials clarified that they had all the Adarsh papers with them, the anchor of Scam TV went “Aah ha” in his “see the conspiracy?” tone. The only thing missing was the Balaji-like sound effects. Give it a little time….the news channels will get these embellishments as well!

From the little I could gather on TV and in the press, I think the fire department did a fairly decent job. They reached the building in 15 minutes, which is not bad in India. They did not have any water shortage. Their equipment was working fine. They were able to reach the top floors without any difficulty. They rescued almost all people who were trapped. The fact that only 2 people died should come as a relief. Yes, we have many miles to cross before we reach Western standards in fire protection. But continuously cribbing won’t get us there. Sometimes, providing a constructive environment works better.

The real truth is what I have repeated many times. Media has lost its balance. It has lost its bearing. News anchors and editors must agree on certain minimum standards. If they demand high standards from public functionaries, they must first pass the test themselves….

NDA fundamentally an unsustainable alliance….

There is only one thing that makes the NDA an alliance. Anti-Congressism. The enemy of my enemy is my friend is the glue that binds the various NDA partners together. As long as nothing else comes in the way, the glue is strong enough to hold the partners together. But as soon as other factors that matter in politics come into play, the glue ceases to bind. And the alliance comes unstuck.

The factor that is more important than even anti-Congressism and the one that raises its head every now and then is Secularism. It is because of the threat to secularism that the NDA gets rocked everytime the bogey of Hindutva is raised by the BJP. The BJP might taunt the concept of Secularism but in a complex heterogeneous country like ours, it is a better glue than any religion is. Secularism is the basis on which India stays united; had that not been the case, several Pakistans would have got created from within India by now. Further, Hinduism is hardly a homogeneous concept. There may be 80%+ Hindus in India, but a closer look will show that Hinduism is not what unites our people…..other factors like culture, language, customs etc do so. Had religion been the only thing that mattered, Bangladesh would never have been carved out of Pakistan. Caste is a far more important factor that Hinduism. Caste divides Hindus into heterogeneous units. The BJP largely appeals to the Brahmins. The rest feel alienated and migrate to caste-based parties like the RLD, the SP, BSP, RJD etc. Even those who are included in the Hindu set are hardly a homogeneous lot. For example, STs are tribals who have very little in common with traditional Hindu practice. The dalits may be added to the Hindu count but they have been converting themselves to Buddhism. The Jains may be conveniently added to the Hindu lot, but they are a very distinct lot. So this monochromatic concept of Hinduism is a myth. The identity of India can never be Hinduism….it has to be secularism.

No surprise then that Advani, a hardline Hindu voice of the BJP, could never make it to the PM’s position. Vajpayee was the one who made it given his secular credentials. Advani’s lasting imagery in the minds of all people – Hindus and others – is that he was the architect of the Babri demolition. He was right there at Ayodhya when the demolition took place; he was the one who gave those fiery speeches provoking ordinary people to undertake the dastardly act; and like a coward, he was the one who ran away from taking responsibility. Advani soon realized the fatal flaw of a hardcore Hindu ideology in politics; that is why he tried to make amends after his trip to Pakistan where he praised Jinnah. But a hardcore and highly traditional party like the BJP found Advani’s sudden praise of Jinnah to be too liberal – and too unpalatable – a concept. For a party smitten by religious jingoism, being kind even to historical figures was unacceptable. So eventually Advani succumbed and abandoned his liberal views. But it was already too late. Advani doesn’t stand a chance any more. Not with the Hindus, not with the secularists.

Nitish Kumar is being accused of hunting with the hounds and running with the hares. This is probably right and the BJP has reasons to feel that way. But this is hardly surprising given the high Muslim population in Bihar. Further, Nitish has reasons to be worried. I was in Bihar recently and was surprised to find that Nitish’s popularity is vastly exaggerated. The people of Bihar were initially happy with Nitish but they now want more. But with no power and no industry even now in Bihar, there are no jobs. The people are getting disenchanted. It’s a matter of time (maybe Nitish will get one more tenure as CM) before the JD (U) feels the heat. When push comes to shove, JD (U) will also use the standard Hindi heartland political strategy – divide the Hindus on the basis of caste and also reach out to the Muslims. In a scenario like this, the BJP would become a huge liability. Ideally, NItish would like to stay with the BJP for now (his government will become unstable without the BJP), but would like to keep his options open. Additionally of course, Nitish considers himself a better PM candidate than Modi (and I agree with this entirely).

The strongest allies of the BJP are those parties which are themselves based on religion. The Shiv Sena is a known Hindu party, so is the Akali Dal a Sikh party. No one else can be taken to be a strong NDA ally. Mamata’s TMC will think ten times before joining the NDA again (30% Muslims in the state). BJD is worried about too much Hindu jingoism too (the strong tribal population hardly has any Hindu persuasion). The other catchment areas for the NDA are states where the non-Hindu populations are small and hence Hinduism is not an issue – states like TN, Karnataka….out there, anti-Congressism is a stronger force than secularism and the BJP may well succeed in sewing together an alliance.

All in all, the NDA can hardly be called a cohesive unit. Anti-congressism and secularism pull in opposite directions. JD (U) is better with the UPA than with the NDA.

The real truth is that even before the NDA has come to power (and I doubt if it will in 2014….even though the UPA may lose it), the divisions have started to become bigger. It’s a reminder to the NDA that those who live in glass houses should not throw stones at others. The BJP is in a quandary. If it goes the Hindutva way, it will weaken the NDA and if it strengthens the NDA, its own core Hindutva philosophy goes for a toss. But then this is what happens when you make your party on religious grounds…..

Teach Mamata a lesson….

Mamata Banerjee should be accused of treason. She was like a mole for the opposition within the UPA. All along her opposition to her own alliance was condoned and tolerated under the pretext that she was Mamata after all – a maverick. In reality, she proved to be nothing but her usual destructive force so driven by her own revolutionary instincts that she didn’t know how to distinguish between friends and foes. Her conduct intentionally or unintentionally gave the BJP a good stick to wield and beat the UPA up with; their constant taunt to the Congress being that “your own coalition partners are not with you”. What kind of a coalition partner would behave like this? Earlier she’d joined the BJP alliance twice and ditched the party twice. Now she was doing the same to the Congress. That’s why I think it’s time Mamata is taught a lesson.

Obviously, this is easier said than done. The fact that Mamata has over-reached herself has been obvious for long. She consistently opposed every single move of the UPA. At first, she used to oppose anything that had even the hint of FDI. She was one of the early opponents of FDI in multi-brand retail. In fact, it is largely because she, as part of the ruling alliance, opposed it that the opposition found the motivation to get together. Had she stuck to the UPA’s decision, the policy could have been rolled out. Because it couldn’t be, a billion Indian consumers were denied the benefits of the policy. But of late, she was opposing almost everything the Congress proposed. She created the bogey of threat to the federal structure when she first opposed the creation of the Lok Ayukta under the Lok Pal Act (Anna…..are you listening?) and then the formation of the NCTC (a body created under an act that had already been passed a few years back). Mamata chose subjects on which she could become the rallying point. She was sure of the BJP’s support on most such things. The BJP itself was keen merely on embarrassing the UPA government; they were happy to even their own beliefs a back seat. Mamata, working with the BJP, became the single biggest stumbling block for the UPA. The sense of policy paralysis that has gripped the country can be attributed directly to Mamata. As if this was not enough, Mamata was becoming more audacious by the day. She saw herself as the final decision maker within the UPA, the ultimate boss. She even opposed Kapil Sibal’s plans on the common entrance test for engineering studies. Did she even understand the matter? There is no doubt that it was she who was provoking the Congress. It wasn’t the Congress that was not consulting her enough; it was she who was playing truant.

Mamata said yesterday that she wouldn’t tolerate anyone’s threats. But was she was being threatened by someone or was she threatening her coalition? When she wanted the financial package for Bengal, it was a “demand”, not a friendly chat. A party with 19 MPs was constantly threatening a party with 206 MPs. How long could this be tolerated after all? Her threats prompted me to write my post yesterday on the modern day “cash for votes” scam that she was re-enacting.

In a fractured Lok Sabha, smaller parties are bound to get more than their commensurate share of power. But that said, there are finite limits to which the political rubber band can be pulled. At a certain point in time, it has to snap. In snapping, everyone may get hurt, but it’s a natural phenomenon that it will snap. Sometimes the snapping of the rubber band actually helps to bring everyone back together. Maybe that will happen here too….maybe Mamata will be back in the UPA as a mellower person.

I think there is a reason why Mamata is in so much of a rush to have a mid-term elections now, rather than even six months later. Her credibility in Bengal is in tatters; most people are hardly appreciative of the “paribartan” that they have seen. She’s been on the wrong side of public opinion on several occasions – like in the rape cases or in the storming of the police station when two of her party hoodlums were arrested. She’s done nothing to build a better investment climate in Bengal. You think industrialists who observed her handling of Dinesh Trivedi as the Railways Minister would be inspired to invest in Bengal? With the passage of time, the Left must surely have started to gather itself, although there is no direct evidence of that. It may take a little longer, but it’s obvious the Left will resuscitate itself faster than it would have had it been anybody else in power. Mamata is herself not sure of her position after six months; hence she wants to force elections now.

But where does Mamata’s exit leave the UPA? While some feel that mid-term elections are bound to happen at the earliest, my own view is that this may not be the case. I think the BJP wants to avoid elections as much as the Congress wants to. Both parties will conspire to protect their own backsides. The BJP has a lot on its plate to sort out first. Its internal bickering is getting messy; its allies like the JD (U) are starting to assert themselves. Is this the right time to go in for elections, or would that right time be a year later? If the recent elections in UP, Punjab and Uttarakhand are anything to go by, the BJP must be a shaken party, no matter what their bravado. It would ideally like a handsome win in Gujarat first before it starts the campaign for the central government. Something miraculous is bound to happen behind the scenes. Something tells me the BJP will lean on its allies to douse the fires of a mid-term election.

But at best, this will give only a little relief to the UPA. We are going to be in for a long period of political unrest. In all likelihood, the next elections will spring up an even more divided Parliament. Both the centrist parties – the Congress and the BJP – are likely to yield even more ground to the regional parties. A period similar to the 1989-91 era when VP Singh and Chandra Shekhar became PMs one after another in an unstable political scenario is likely to emerge. In the meantime, the country is likely to come to a complete stop. Sad….really sad.

The real truth is that Mamata needs to be taught a lesson. It’s good to be a political opportunist within limits, but when it exceeds those limits; it’s time for the person to be cut to size. Both the BJP and the Congress have to realize this truth….

A modern day cash-for-votes scam unfolding in the Presidential elections….

Unfortunately, I cannot claim to be the one who thought of this rather interesting concept. This was actually mentioned by a former minister of the Government and a member of an ally of the Congress at a recent interaction he had with a select few members of the financial world and the corporate sector in Mumbai. The context was the Presidential elections and the factors that were going to decide who became President. After yesterday’s “googly” by Mulayam and Mamata, his words ring even more true!

Why cash for votes? Because at least as far as Mamata’s game is concerned, it looks simple. Give me the financial package I am “demanding” for Bengal and you can have your Presidential candidate. I don’t care how you find the funds, but you find them. If it creates a bad precedence, that’s your problem. If it means giving similar packages to other states, that’s your problem too. The trade-off is clear and specific and monetary. The cash demanded is some Rs 20000 crores (in the form of aninterest waiver and a moratorium for payment of interest for a further period of time). The seats offered are some 4% of the Electoral College. Isn’t this cash for votes?!

The story with Mulayam is no different. He is a willing “friend” of the UPA from time to time. He’s found the right excuse to support the UPA – he wants to keep the communal forces out it seems! Now that he owes no one any explanation for supporting the UPA, he also wants his pound of flesh. News reports indicate that he is willing to come on-board a plan to support the Congress’s candidate if the Congress Government promises him cash for his 6% votes.

There is of course a difference with the original cash for votes scam. Both Mulayam and Mamata appear to be asking for the cash for their states, not for themselves personally. While in the actual cash for votes scam, the allegation was that three members of the BJP were offered cash in their personal capacity to vote for the Congress (supposedly by the Congress since they benefitted – don’t try to think about evidence or logic – this is politics. Here any accusation sticks without need for any evidence!). There is one other difference. If the original was to ensure the support of just three votes, this one is to ensure a far larger number. If the cash paid then were a few suit-cases full, this time it is in the tens of thousands of crores of rupees. This is surely one measure of economic progress that the country has made!

This MP has been a Parliamentarian since 1990. When asked if this was the worst period and type of politics he had seen since that year, he strongly agreed. And he is right. The difference between all the politics of the past and the present is that now there is not even a pretence of ideology left in opposing a candidate or proposing another one. Now its openly and brazenly self serving interests which determine such decisions. Mamata’s opposition of Pranab Mukherjee is not because he is eligible or uncapable; but simply because he isn’t yielding to her on the financial package. Her support for Somnath Chaterjee is simply because he revolted against the Left. Mulayam owes no one any explanation for his flip-flops. Both Ansari and Kalam were “bureaucrats” as he had called them earlier in explaining why he wouldn’t back them. Now he is ok to support them.

But you have to give it to Mamata and Mulayam for playing some real smart politics. For both of them, the other was the handicap. Mamata wasn’t able to exert herself strongly enough (in her reckoning!) because the Congress could always count on Mulayam for support. And vice-versa. By coming together, both of them have together taken the wind out of the Congress’s sails. If both work together even for a limited period of time, they can easily get the Congress to do anything they want. At the very minimum, they can get the government to stop moving even at the minute, barely visible, microscopic speed that it is moving at.

I asked the MP the question if he saw things improving in 2014. Even assuming the NDA came to power, would the situation of the BJP be any different than it is of the Congress at present. Not surprisingly, the MP agreed with my views. He too believes that the situation would become worse after 2014. The only hope he offered from his experience was that when things became really bad (a few years and several PMs later….after 2014), people would vote back a single party to power. That’s when India will be back on its tracks. In his view, in the long journey a country undertakes, a set-back of a few years doesn’t mean much. For us mortals of course, we would like every year to count.

I doubt if this Mulayam-Mamata partnership will last too long. They are not natural allies. They don’t think of the Congress as a huge enemy in their home states. They consider some one else (the BSP and the Left) as their real enemies and the support of the Congress would be welcome, even if not essential. The two parties also have ideological differences. For Mamata, Somnath Chatterjee is acceptable because that would really hurt the Left. For Mulayam, no matter what he says now, the Left is an ally he wants to cultivate. So at some point in time, their paths have to become tangled. This is an opportunistic alliance meant only to last till the Presidential elections end.

The real truth is that while everyone in the country seems to be enjoying an interesting and intriguing ringside view of the drama that’s being enacted in Delhi, it’s a really sad moment for the country. A weak center – supported by a multiple “allies” – is an untenable political structure. It may survive but it cannot function. The NDA faces its own alliance problems. The JD (U) has become an irritant. Even if they do patch up, no one knows how long the patch up will last. That’s why we need electoral reforms that ensure a degree of stability. How to get those, I don’t know at this point…..but maybe we should start a debate.

Rotten politics begets rotten economic policies….additional excise on diesel vehicles the latest example….

For completely ridiculous reasons, the Government prefers to increase the excise duty on diesel cars so as to recover subsidy on diesel fuel. The normal thing to do would be to increase the price of diesel (maybe slowly), so that the subsidy would keep coming down over a period of time. But given the rotten political landscape that exists, it is more acceptable politically to increase excise on diesel cars than to increase diesel prices.

Let me explain the rotten politics first. Just imagine what would happen if the diesel prices were increased even marginally. Without a doubt, there would be a huge political uproar. If there can be a political uproar when petrol prices are hiked, there would surely be a bigger one if dieself prices were touched. The BJP as usual would find a clever excuse to stage a bandh: This government doesn’t care for the poor. Or why is the price hike so steep? Or why did the government not increase prices for so long? And conclude by demanding someone’s resignation, if not the entire government’s. Team Anna would be back saying this is a sign of corruption and maybe the entire Government should be probed for it (you see, activists don’t have to produce evidence or follow the institutions of the country)! The Left would shout hoarse too. And all this assumes that Mamata Banerjee would approve of the price increase in the first place – an impossibility. So don’t blame the Congress alone for not taking the right path to reforms. Blame all the politicians.

Now let’s see what’s rotten about this economic decision. The first rotten thing is that it puts the onus of paying for the diesel subsidy only on the new car buyers. The ones who already own diesel vehicles get away scot free. Given the fact that the existing pool of diesel vehicles is far more than the new sales of diesel vehicles made every year, this puts an unfair and huge burden on the new buyers. Maybe the government will prefer not to increase excise duties so much….in that case, it will be unable to recover the full subsidy. In other words, this policy will end up being mere tokenism.

The second rotten thing is that in a situation where the industrial production is already down, this will ensure that at least the auto sector goes into a tailspin. Further, the new buyers will have to pay the entire subsidy burden upfront. This is surely going to kill the diesel car industry. I’m not sure the government should want to do that.

The third rotten thing is that this apparently is being done only for “cars”. Do SUVs like the Toyota Innova, or the range of Tata and Mahindra vehicles – all of which are used extensively for rural and semi-urban transportation purposes – or the much more premium SUVs (Honda CRV, Merc, BMW and Audi SUVs etc etc) used largely by the urban rich all get covered under this policy of higher excise duty? I doubt they do, for if they did, then a lot of the rural folks would get affected, and a politically afraid government would like to avoid that. If the higher excise duties don’t apply to all vehicles, then basically the government would have to find a way to exclude the higher end of SUVs while still giving the benefit to the lower end ones. So basically, we will have arbitrary rules in play. Some bureaucrat will decide on an involved excise regime…..This is crazy and fundamentally illogical.

The fourth rotten thing is that the calculations that the government would do in calculating this upfront additional excise duty will be inherently flawed and unfair. Has the government considered the better mileage (kms per litre) of diesel cars? What if the distance covered in a year is less (say 10000 kms only) for some and more for others? Shouldn’t the upfront payment vary with usage? Further, does a car last for 10 years at all as the government’s thinking appears to be? In today’s world, by the time a car is 6-7 years old, it is pretty much near its end. If used beyond this period, it would have become a fuel guzzler and then the entire calculation goes awry anyways. One last small hiccup. As fuel prices keep rising (sorry…..as petrol prices keep rising), and the gap with diesel keeps becoming more and more, are we saying that the additional excise duty will also keep rising? In other words, rather than changing diesel pricing, we would be changing excise duties every two weeks! And what if the gap drops? Then will the government be intellectually honest and lower the excise duty?

One last point. What kind of an industrial climate are we creating here? While the government is within its rights to change its fiscal policies, every government tries to assure industrialists of consistent policies. This decision would come after years of investments made by industrialists in diesel car manufacturing. Can the government instantaneously change its excise policy or should it give a few years for manufacturers to adjust their strategies. In short, should the government make this policy applicable from now itself or from some future date five years or more away?

It’s crazy really. Finding convoluted solutions to really simple problems. And then those convoluted solutions will create new problems which will require even more convoluted solutions. Remember the days of the License Raj? Similar convoluted structures existed then too. There were subsidies given to small scale manufacturers and many sectors were kept out of reach of the big boys. For example icecreams were reserved for the small sector. So the big boys produced “frozen desserts” rather than “icecreams”! And the small guys produced such lousy icecreams that no one had them anyways. Indians would go abroad and hog the much better icecreams available there! Just imagine those days. In small but sure steps, we are heading in that direction now.

What should be done is that diesel pricing should gradually be freed up – say over the next 5 years. The assurance the government should give to the people is that the entire saving of subsidy would be diverted towards setting up of new public transport. New metros, new BRTS systems and new modern buses. I am sure the people would support such initiatives.

Otherwise, this current policy will support petrol cars. And petrol cars are fundamentally more inefficient in usage of fuel compared to diesel cars. Sad….really sad.

The real truth is that convoluted, dangerous and rotten politics is forcing the government to think of convoluted, dangerous and rotten economic policies. Don’t blame the Congress for this. Any political party would do the same given its need to survive. It’s time for us to wake up and raise our voice against stupid economics. And stupid politics….

S&P is right. India’s politics is all junk….

Standard & Poor’s – the global credit rating agency – has threatened to downgrade India to a junk investment grade status. Should this happen, India’s reputation will take a big hit. The first fallen angel amongst the BRIC nations as the papers have been screaming. India will struggle to raises foreign capital to fuel its ambitious growth agenda if this happens. But can one really blame S&P for its statement. Is it off the mark when it says that the politics is the real culprit in India?

A lot of people have complained about the UPA-2’s non-performance. Many have said that the problems come from within the UPA, not outside. What this statement really means is that Mamata Banerjee is really an opposition leader who pretends to be part of the UPA. It’s perhaps only because she sees the Central government as a sort of piggy bank which she can withdraw money from all the time that she continues to be counted as a leader of the UPA. Take Mamata out, and the UPA struggles to hit the majority 272 mark in the Lok Sabha. Even with Mamata in its fold, the coalition suffers from a lack of majority in the Rajya Sabha. So those who blame the UPA for all the ills may want to keep this statistical equation in mind. In a situation of such imbalance, only the lowest common denominator – policy decisions that no one can fault (read the most populist policies) – go through. The latest proof of this is that after widespread consultations (and no one can blame the Congress for once), there is no agreement (forget consensus) amongst the UPA allies and outside friends on the Presidential nominee. It’s easy for the SP to oppose Ansari and for Mamata Pranab Mukherjee. It’s no longer even a shame for Mamata to openly threaten the UPA. Give me the loan waiver or I won’t support Pranab. There is not even a pretence of an ideological point of view on this subject or a care for the national good; it’s like the threat of a kidnapper who has taken someone hostage.

But wait a second. Surely the S&P hasn’t rated India poorly only because of the present state of politics? Surely, it must have cast its eyes a little further – beyond 2014. What it would have seen would have truly thrown it off its feet. For the picture beyond 2014 is worse than the picture that you see today.

Beyond 2014, the Congress will surely struggle to reach its present 206 count. The UPA is clearly in trouble, unlikely to return to power unless it turns things around real quick. But what about the BJP and the NDA? Surely, the two are looking like squeaky clean and ready to lead strongly in comparison?

In reality, if there is anything even more certain than that the UPA is in trouble, it is that the BJP and NDA is in even more trouble. The BJP gets hardly 32 seats out of 289 seats in the top 6 states that contribute more than 53% to the Lok Sabha (UP, Maharashtra, WB, AP, Bihar and TN). Has this changed? Not one bit. The BJP’s favorite states – Gujarat, MP, Chhatisgarh and Rajasthan (off and on) – don’t matter politically as much. Karnataka is all but gone, and the Bihar coalition is in deep trouble.

So in 2014, it is safe to assume that even if the BJP becomes a larger party than the Congress, it will have fewer seats than 206. Its highest tally ever has been 182, and let’s not forget that those were heady days. Those were days when a large part of the Hindu mass forgot its caste-based divisions for a moment, and came out in defence of a perceived threat to its religion. Those moments have long passed. India’s Hindus are back to their divided self. What’s worse is that even the OBCs have been further divided into the Most Backwards and the Mahadalits. There is nothing left which can be united under a Hindu agenda. There is no Hindu agenda left for the BJP to exploit.

So when S&P looks beyond 2014, it sees an India with an even weaker center. The leader of the UPA doesn’t have a place in the cabinet; the PM is an appointed leader. This is indeed a problem. Does the BJP offer anything better? Its party leader – elected for a 2^nd time – and the earlier ones (Bangaru Laxman, Rajnath Singh, Venkaiah Naidu) – have traditionally been weaklings. So the BJP has no grounds to snipe at Sonia. Now consider its PM candidates. Most of the leaders are regional satraps, not national leaders; Modi the foremost of them all (the Modi economic myth has been busted yet again in today’s story in TOI – Gujarat: Myth and Reality). Sushma Swaraj is hardly known outside her North Indian belt; The other strong leaders – Vasundhara Raje Scindia, Raman Singh, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, even Rajnath Singh are all regional small fries. That leaves Arun Jaitley – in my mind the best of all BJP leaders to become PM – again a largely non-political figure; a Rajya Sabha member who has never won a Lok Sabha election. So much for the BJP’s attacks on the PM.

Surely, S&P has considered all this before issuing the warning it did. Rather than fret about this warning, it is important we make amends. For starters, we need political reforms. Essentially, a Mamata should not be able to threaten the downfall of the UPA (or a Jayalalitha of the NDA when it ruled). A German style formula – where a ruling government cannot be “felled” unless an alternative coalition is put together first – should be actively considered. Mamata won’t be allowed to pull out unless she helps make an alternate formulation at the Center – a near impossibility. Alternatively, a rule that alliance partners cannot split mid-way through a Lok Sabha tenure. Such reforms will give us stability, while retaining the essential flavor of democracy and choice intact.

A government that knows its stability is not threatened for five years will still be kept under check by the various signals it will get from time to time. State elections will keep happening and the news there will indicate whether the ruling coalition is doing well or not.

Hopefully, stability will bring better decision making and governance to the fore. The political establishment will be able to pursue goals without worrying about some or the other partner pulling out. It will be able to take tough decisions that are in the country’s interests rather than worrying about allies all the time. This is the larger message from the S&P warning.

The real truth is that Indian politics stinks. We’ve entered a fundamentally unstable era – even by coalition standards. In a normal coalition, political parties maintain a certain decency. What we are seeing now is insouciant vulgarity. The one who wields the sticks threatens everyone else. If this continues, India will truly deserve the junk status from S&P…..

Amazing the depths to which media has plummeted…..prefers to dicuss Montek’s toilets on prime time…..

On a day when the US Defense Secretary was in India, trying to woo India into a futuristic partnership (and no doubt trying to sell his country’s wares!); on a day when China too was wooing India’s foreign minister on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO); on a day when the PM finally shook off the lethargy of his government and announced some bold steps; at least one TV channel in India was focused on the Rs 35 lacs spent on the renovation of toilets at the Planning Commission! Surprisingly, this subject was not branded “toiletgate” or some such idiotic thing as has become standard practice in media these days.

A full 20 minutes or so of prime time was dedicated to this subject. A full panel comprising 4 or 6 (I forget how many) “eminent” panelists were called in to debate this subject of supposedly vital national importance. The anchor no doubt was in full flush; using his facial expressions to add drama to the anyways-dramatic discussion that was going on!

Consider this. One panelist said that within a few square kms of the Planning Commission’s office were huge residences “occupied” by ministers. Each plot was worth hundreds of crores of rupees. I didn’t quite understand why this man was going on and on in this direction when the topic itself was so interesting and of such extreme importance. Then I figured. He was probably referring to the plush toilets that already existed in the bungalows of Lutyen’s Delhi, his suggestion perhaps being that Montek should go to his own house if he felt nature’s urge rather than splurge the “tax payer’s” money!

Another lady (a former or current bureaucrat) went on to explain the feudal system of India and how ordinary Indians wet the toilets (true indeed!) and hence the other Indians (the empowered class as it were) couldn’t possibly use those toilets. In other words, they needed their own toilets! I couldn’t quite understand if she was OK with the expense incurred or found it too elitist. I think she was confused, unclear and unable to decide – like much of the bureaucracy these days!

Then there was Mohandas Pai who started off really well by saying what the right thing was. That Rs 35 lacs is such a small sum of money that it doesn’t warrant a discussion on prime time TV. That the government of India has an annual budget of some Rs 12 lac crores and hence a small spend of this order wouldn’t do anyone any harm. That there were other big ticket items that should be contained in order to rein in the fiscal deficit. Suddenly however, he felt compelled to add more value to justify his presence on national TV. Suddenly, he blamed the Planning commission for not having provided toilets to 60% of Indians after 60 years of independence. Notice how clever corporate honchos are getting with language! The brilliance in the syntax of using 60 twice for effect is unmistakable! It’s the media effect I say!

And finally the anchor was trying his level best to juice up the debate as much as he could. Using predictable puns (all toilet jokes his “newsdesk” could think up!), he added a really interesting twist to the debate by wondering if the news media’s ire on this subject was because Montek had defined the poverty line at just Rs 28 a day! I understand that news anchors don’t understand economics, but this has to be the height of demonstrated ignorance!

And of course, as is often the case, the numbers were all mixed up. Was Rs 35 lacs spent on 2 toilets (that would indeed be too lavish) or on 2 toilet blocks? Someone conveniently (and in the interest of making the show interesting I guess!) forgot the word “blocks” after the numeral 2. Now Rs 35 lacs for 2 blocks would be fine, wouldn’t it? But Vinod Mehta, the other panelist, who usually speaks a lot of sense, thought it was Rs 35 lacs for 2 toilets. He went on to narrate how he had recently refurbished 3 toilets in his house for Rs 1.5 lacs. Wow! He must be a terrific negotiator. Or maybe he is ok with wet toilets! Anyways, he was later told that it was for 2 blocks of toilets which had 20 “seats”. Unfortunately this clarification didn’t help. Vinod Mehta thought it was 2 toilets which could seat 20 people…..hahahaha. At this point, I just couldn’t take it any longer. This was a true comedy show pretending to call itself a prime time news show! I preferred switching to the other channel that was glued onto some scam that it had supposedly unearthed (it unearths one every day!) and eventually onto the “yet another” channel that preferred to discuss Ramdev’s entertainment quotient! Kirron Kher was on the show and she got so lost in pushing her party’s cause that she forgot she was on TV, not on the big screen! Couldn’t make up my mind if she was an entertainer at all or not for she pointed out strongly that she also had a mind and a soul. Guess entertainers don’t have either!

Such is the state of affairs of India’s news channels. There is a drought of intelligence out there. Prioritization of objectives worse than what the  Planning Commission manages. And political bias more obvious than the deep freeze that is seen in decision making!

The real truth is it matters little how much the Planning Commission spent on its toilets. I have visited several ministries and government offices and I am sorry but the offices are really pathetic. The toilets stink. The corridors are dark. The doors are broken, the glasses chipped. The cutlery is of awful quality. This is not how the government of the 2^nd fastest growing major country should present itself to the thousands of global visitors that come visiting. It’s time we stopped counting the pennies…..and focused instead on the bigger stuff…..