It’s “gandh”, not “khushboo” Gujarat ki….

Notwithstanding the much talked about and highly successful TV and radio campaign “Khushboo Gujarat ki”, featuring Amitabh Bachchan, Gujarat has for some time now been known more for the “Gandh” (foul smell) emerging from its soil. We’ve had Godhra, the post-Godhra riots, the Haren Pandya murder, several fake encounter killings, sordid HDI statistics, and a whole lot of bogus economic claims (Vibrant Gujarat being the biggest). Now we can also add the Amit Shah tapes to that list.

These tapes are even more murky than the Niira Radia ones. If Cobrapost and Gulail are to be believed, then Amit Shah, under instructions from his “saheb”, ordered the illegal surveillance of a young woman architect,  for no rhyme or reason. The former home minister, and boss of all cops in the state, reportedly deployed surveillance teams comprising members from various wings – the state police itself, the CID, the SIB, and even the ATS (Anti Terrorism Squad) – to monitor the movements of this woman. Why? What’s going on in Gujarat? Most Gujaratis already know of the Modi government’s fascist ways. It is now slowly starting to get known nationally. Gujarat has been run as a police state for long. That explains why there are no riots there (like there are none in China), very little freedom of expression (dissent is frowned upon), no Lokpal for more than a decade (so the dirty tricks remain under a lid) and hardly any RTI commissioners (so no one knows nothing). Do we want something similar nationally?

How should one approach these “taped” or “tapped” conversations. Should one worry that the Home Minister of the state, supposedly under instructions from his saheb, abuses his police force and mounts a surveillance operation over a private citizen and her male friends, including an IAS officer? Going so far as to even put cops on airplanes (at great cost to the state exchequer, no doubt) when the girl travelled out? Or should we worry about the moral temperament of the PM candidate, who appears to be so infatuated with the young woman that he wants her every moment monitored? Sometimes even knowing more than the surveillance team knows (so was there another surveillance mechanism also put in place, to keep a check on the police surveillance team)? Or should one worry about the plight of the poor girl’s father, who has issued a statement that he himself had sought the surveillance of his girl? Which father wants his daughter surveyed by a police force? And how does the CM of a state deploy state resources for something so personal in nature? Or should we worry about the fact that we had to wait for a former IPS officer to be caught and arrested before learning about this ugly episode? And that mainstream media, happy to sing paeans to Modi at every possible occasion, failed to inform us about the nature and character of the person who India is considering for the top job? Or should we worry about Shah and Modi’s (both of whom would play an important role at the central level if the BJP wins 2014) complete lack of belief in the judicial system – they didn’t even bother to get the court’s permission for carrying out this surveillance, did they? The whole issue is so shocking, one doesn’t even know where to begin and where to go.

It could be a story of lust. Lust that vitiates the trust that the younger generation puts on the older one to protect it and it’s dignity and honor. Modi’s biggest supporters are supposed to be the youth. Is this what the youth expects from him? That they may also be put under covert surveillance one day if they start to protest against some decision of his government? Is this the type of democracy they want in the country?

But Modi’s views on women are well known. Remember he once called Shashi Tharoor’s wife a “50 crore girlfriend”? A government whose CM thinks of girlfriends as material objects is bound to consider them also as “objects” that can/should be monitored. There are also rumors that the infamous Sanjay Joshi (of RSS) sex scandal was cooked in the political kitchens of Gujarat. That the same team of Vanzara (now in jail) and others had executed the tapes. All this to settle political scores with him.

The gandh from Gujarat is overpowering. We know that Modi is OK with corruption (his posters for a forthcoming Karnataka rally prominently show Yeddy with him). He is more than OK – quite comfortable actually – with a Sri-Lanka like human rights issue (2002). He is used to abusing his opponents verbally (khooni panja). He runs a one man show in his state (who is the #2, #3, #4 there?). And we also know that he is quite a control freak (fascist). Some potent combination for a PM candidate.

And what about his party, the BJP? We know that Ayodhya is what it really cares for. In fact, its fetish with 17^th century orthodoxy is so much that it’s senior leaders even object to songs which apparently denigrate “Radha”, and to films which question the tenets of Hinduism (Oh My God). They force students in MP to do Surya Namaskar and sing the Sarasvati Vandana. Their leaders perform pujas to appease the rain gods (Karnataka). And we also know what the RSS, the fountainhead of the entire Sangh ideology, thinks of Muslims and Christians (India’s top 2 enemies as per Golwalkar). Is this the party that modern India needs?

The real truth is that now that the spotlight is on Modi and Gujarat, all the “gandh”, hidden for long, is finally starting to come out. And the gandh is very very distasteful. The gandh is similar to that of the 2004 campaign line “India Shining”.  That ad could not save the BJP then. Amitabh Bachchan’s ad will not be able to do it either….

Now MP High Court swings to Hindutva tunes – Ram Leela doomed

What’s wrong with our courts? I wrote yesterday about how the SC reversed its own stand and ordered a further delay in the demolition of the illegal Campa Cola flats in Mumbai. Now the MP HC has directed, at the very last moment I might add, that the title of the film Ram Leela should be dropped. Err….dropped? At the last moment? Is this not harassment? But forget the court for a moment. What is more important is, who are these people who worry so much about our “Hindu sentiment”? Why are they so illiberal? Is this the kind of culture we want in this country?

These are the people who want to take India back to the dark ages. They are so insecure about Hinduism that they won’t allow any interpretation of it that is different from theirs nor allow the creative folks a little creative license.

Ram Leela is hardly the first instance where people with 17^th century mindset have made such objections. Remember Sushma Swaraj of the BJP protesting against usage of the name “Radha” in the song “Radha” from the film “Student of the Year”? I wrote about this on 12^th November, 2012 in a post titled “Did Sushma Swaraj just complain about the “Radha” song from Student of the Year???” (available at http://tinyurl.com/o7cs7qs). Her objection was that Radha has been shown in the film as not knowing how to dance and being invited to the dance floor to learn to dance (TOI - http://tinyurl.com/pgfzfay). So did she mean that all Radhas have genes that make them expert dancers – if so, then maybe this is something that geneticists should research! Actually, Sushma would have found much more to object to if only she had heard the lyrics carefully. The lyrics of the song “Radha” actually put the words “sexy” and “Radha” together. Surely “Sexy Radha” must have appalled Sushma! Not only that, but Radha likes to move that “sexy Radha body”. Man that’s going too far, isn’t it??!! And when Radha wants to party and Radha “wants more”, then that must be going over the top for most BJP/Hindutva leaders! Apparently, Sushma considered this so important that she took up the matter in Parliament!

And why do such things happen only in BJP ruled states? We know the BJP can be exceedingly orthodox when it comes to religious matters. From doing pujas when the rains fail (in Karnataka when ruled by the party) to making singing of Saraswati Vandana compulsory in schools (in MP), the BJP has shown a penchant for high order and aggressive Hindu orthodoxy. Now I don’t know who these two lawyers are who filed the petition – Anand Chawla and Amit Kumar Sahu – and whether they are related in any manner to the BJP or not, but there is no doubt that the party’s Hindutva ideology does at least partially encourage people like them to stay back in the old ages. And when they see a leader like Sushma Swaraj – an otherwise erudite and inspiring leader – fight for such causes, surely they get the requisite encouragement to pursue their ancient-age agenda.

It appears that the courts also get influenced by the politics of the state. We’ve seen the Supreme Court having to step in and take specific cases outside of a state when it finds this. Several of the 2002 Godhra related cases were taken out of Gujarat for instance. This instance in MP also proves the point. The Delhi High Court, perhaps because of the liberal environment in which it operates, had a completely different take on the same issue. Here is what Outlook India reports on its website (http://tinyurl.com/qb7hvv9 ): “Interestingly, a Delhi court yesterday recalled its earlier order of restraining Bhansali and EROS International Media Limited from using the title 'Ram Leela' for the film, slated for November 15 release. The Delhi High Court had earlier refused to ban the release of the movie and also imposed a cost of Rs 50,000 on an NGO which had moved the plea against the film on the ground that sex, violence and vulgarity in the movie will hurt religious sentiments and feelings of Hindus”. How is it that two High Courts rule in such completely opposite ways. The only explanation has to be that they are influenced by the societal and political environments in their states.

The poor producer is now stuck. He does not even know what to do next. Outlook reports that he has already changed the name of the film a few times. First from Ram Leela (two separate words) to RamLeela (one word) to Goliyon Ki Rasleela Ram-Leela (Ugghhh!). But what now? How can the producer just drop the name in its entirety? If it were just a descriptor that caused the problem, he could still have done it. But to change the title itself at the last minute is pure harassment. The producer will have to delay the launch of the film in MP, appeal in the SC, make many lawyers richer by tens of lacs of rupees, and then hopefully get a reprieve. If anyone had any doubts about how difficult it is to do business in India, even if it is something as casual as films, this case proves it.

The real truth is that this is how Hindutva would pervade our entire life, if we didn’t take steps to stop it. Next time a producer makes a film, he will just play safe. Stay away from anything that can raise the hackles of the Hindu brigade. This is what Mahesh Bhatt said when the Radha controversy arose (http://tinyurl.com/oddluvx). This is exactly what happens in Taliban-land, and in the worst of the Islamic world. Do we really want to support this version of Hindutva? Do we want to encourage it or kill it before it explodes in our faces????

Campa Cola case shows how fickle the SC is….

The Campa Cola demolition has been stayed. And rightly so. In my view, no demolition should ever be ordered. We are after all, an asset-deficient country. Alternative remedies can and should be found, which can act as a deterrent to those who flout rules, while avoiding destruction of precious assets. What the remedies should be is really for our law makers to decide. But the focus of this piece is not on this. It is on the SC’s regular flipflops which are completely inexplicable and unacceptable. How can the country’s top court be so fickle in its decision making?

One is not questioning the ultimate authority the SC wields in deciding on judicial matters. But clearly, one expects the SC to be sensitive to this unique power it has under the Constitution, and decide matters after due consideration. Bureaucrats and ministers can get away with “roll backs”, but the SC cannot. Time and again we find that the SC either rolls backs its own decisions, or the decisions taken by the lower courts. Where is the sanctity in the judicial process then? And what about accountability to the litigants and the people in general? Why are such discretionary powers to take/alter decisions not questioned by our media the same way as they are for politicians and bureaucrats? Why do we treat our judges as if they are avatars of God and refuse to question their callous methods?

Did the courts not have adequate time to decide on the Campa Cola mess? The imbroglio dates back to 1989 when residents of the society approached the Bombay HC for permission to get water (Imagine this: they were using tankers for their needs before this). After a long-drawn process, the HC ordered demolition in 2005 (a “time-bound” process as it ordered). The matter obviously went to the SC, which after many years in Feb 2013, agreed with the HC. The demolition date was set for April, then moved by a few days to early May, then again to November. Now it has been stayed for six more months. Clearly, no one can make the case that the HC and SC did not have adequate time to pass their final orders.

I am happy the demolition has been stayed at least for now. But the grounds for doing this look specious. Apparently, the court was under the impression that only 25% of the flats were still occupied. In reality apparently, 75% flats are occupied. How does that change the situation? If it’s a “human issue” in addition to the legal one as the SC has now opined, how does that human angle diminish if its 75% and not 25% who are still occupying the flats? Are the rights of 25% not important enough from a human angle?

The SC incidentally has not reversed its order, only delayed the demolition date yet again. In a very filmy style, it played “God”, intervening “suo-moto” even as the demolition was underway. What does this say about this most august of institutions? That it considers itself above the usual accountability standards set for public institutions and thinks it can change its mind anytime? Is this kind of errant behavior on account of the fact that no one dares question the judiciary? Just look at it – no media outlet has asked the SC to justify its back-and-forth orders.

This is hardly the first time this is happening. I don’t have numbers but I can bet there are hundreds if not thousands of instances when the SC has “disagreed” with the lower courts. Recently, in the case of infamous “tandoor” case, the SC reversed the HC’s order of the death penalty. Did the SC subsequently do anything to align the thinking of the lower courts so that such “mistakes” do not happen again? I doubt it. Actually, such reversals are so common, no one even bothers about the rulings of the lower courts. Almost all their orders are appealed, and this is one of the main reasons why the courts are so clogged. Had there been accountability, this would not have happened.

But what about cases when the SC reverses its own decisions? The 2G related case when a bench of the SC ruled that all natural resources must only be auctioned was later reversed on appeal by the court’s Constitution bench. Imagine what would have happened if the government had not appealed. Would the Constitution bench have reversed the decision suo-moto even then? Such random conduct shows the SC in poor light, making it look like an institution run by moody judges. Catch them on a good day and good a favorable judgment, and vice versa. Reversals of judgments should be only in the “rarest of rare” cases.

And did the SC consider the plight of the others who occupy the legal flats? It has been reported in media that structural engineers have opined that these flats would become structurally weaker after the demolition of the flats above them. What about the hardships they would face when the water tank (at the top of the illegal floors) would be demolished and they would be denied water for months? Was there no “human angle” that the SC could see in this?

Besides, how can we destroy property, even if it is constructed illegally. Any number of solutions can be found to deal with the issue of illegality. A stiff penalty “at current rates” could be applied. As an example, maybe the prevailing TDR rate (TDR entitles a builder for extra FSI) could be levied on the residents of these illegal flats (the builder must be sued in any case). Or maybe the government can take over the illegal flats and use it for something productive. Or some other solution can be found. But under no circumstances should demolition be carried out. If laws need to be amended, let them be.

The real truth is that I am happy the Campa Cola demolition has been stayed. Rather than demolishing them, the government must find a legal way to either regularize them. But more importantly, the SC must introspect, and advise its lower arms and its own judges on how to become more consistent and less fickle in the future….

Err….Modi responsible for sensex fall as well?!

A few days back, as the sensex scaled lifetime highs, an audacious bunch of stock market operators – and Modi aficionados I may add – rushed to attribute the phenomenon to Narendra Modi. Little did they care for even the slightest truth. Little did they care that the movement of the sensex followed other developments more closely than anything that Modi said or did. So awestruck were they by Modi’s oratorical flourish that they even staked their international reputations to put out one foolish report after another!

So the question today that they have to answer is this: Since the sensex has fallen by some 1000 odd points since its recent high, and equally, since the Rupee has started to depreciate again, shouldn’t these also be attributed to Modi?! After all, if Modi swung the sensex one way (up), surely he must have had some role to play when it moved the other way as well? Maybe it’s because he’s not been speaking often enough?! Maybe his slip-ups on history are becoming legendary and a little too embarrassing?! Maybe these Mensa cohorts are finally realizing that government formation is vastly different from fake, cooked up, attendance in political rallies?!

Just consider the process of government formation. If Modi has to become PM, the BJP by itself must get 210-220 seats. Now a quick analysis of possibilities for the party shows that it can increase its seats count by (maybe) a few in Gujarat, MP and Chhatisgarh, where it had already done well in 2009, and a little more (again, maybe) in states where it fared poorly like Punjab, Delhi and Rajasthan. But all of these states won’t give it more than 20-25 additional seats (over their present 117). The South and East are outside of bounds for the party. In fact, in the South, it will suffer a loss of at least 10-12 seats in Karnataka. In the East, it could lose a few in Jharkhand. So, if it has to make the 210-220 mark, it must get some 50-55 seats in UP and 25-30 in Bihar. Is that even possible? I seriously doubt the UP number. In fact, I even doubt the Bihar one. In UP, unless the BJP plays a vicious Ayodhya-like card (which I fear it will), inciting aggressive communal polarization in the process, the BJP won’t be able to go beyond 20. If anyone is likely to get stronger in UP, it is Mayawati. In Bihar, where it already has 12 seats, it may at best go up by a few more, maybe even touch 20. If UP/Bihar go this way, there is no way the BJP can hit even 175. How will Modi then become PM? Modi’s supporters will say that this is mere “trend analysis” done by an ignorant (worse, paid!) blogger like me, and that Modi is a phenomenon that will break all trends, but for institutions like Goldman and others, who, if anything, overdepend on data and analysis and underdepend on sentiments, before they arrive at conclusions (or do they?), isn’t it a little too early to put out such funny reports?

Besides, just look at the timing of the sensex movement. It rose when Raghuram Rajan took over, and introduced measures to fix the rupee, not when Modi became the PM nominee of his party. It rose when Chidambaram went for road shows and re-established the India story, not when Modi started trashing it. It rose when the Cabinet Committee on Investments took decisive action on stalled infrastructure projects, clearing as much as Rs 3.5 lac crores of projects, not when Modi put out one fake figure after another. And most importantly, it rose when it became clear that the US monetary stimulas programme would stay on longer than estimated earlier. This last one was the most decisive of all factors. Since close to half of all stock market trading in India is undertaken by FIIs, anything that encourages them to invest/stay in India improves the sentiment on D-street. Anything that encourages them to return to the US on the other hand, like recent data of growth and jobs growth in the US, will weaken the sentiment. It is because of this weak sentiment that the rupee has started falling, inspite of every sign that the CAD will actually end up much better than announced earlier.

Of course, the markets factor in the future. But the future is not a strength right now, it is a weakness. The big fear the markets are already factoring in is the possibility of an unstable government in 2014. Had that fear not been there, the sensex would have been at 25000 or more. It’s for the same fear that the sensex hasn’t performed uniformly across stocks. Mid-caps and Low-caps, which FIIs generally avoid, are still languishing. Yesterday’s ET analysis shows that it is stocks in which FIIs have a big play that have done well (equivalent sensex of 41000); the rest are still down. This weakness may be attributed to Modi (!); the fact that he opened up the field and added to the political uncertainty. The strength on the other hand, is co-related to Chidambaram, Raghuram Rajan and Janet Yellen (new Fed Chief), not to Modi.

But such is the Modi PR machinery, that anything and everything good that happens in India is usurped by Modi! I am actually surprised that Modi stopped at merely congratulating ISRO scientists for Mangalyaan, and did not claim credit for the mission itself! I am also surprised Modi stopped at Sardar Patel, and didn’t usurp Mahatma Gandhi as well! Modi is so used to grabbing other people’s credit that the joke goes that Modi would have taken credit even for launching IPL – except that the other Modi (Lalit) became too well known for the event! In this context, Modi taking credit for the stock market performance is hardly surprising.

The real truth is that hyper-aggressive PR, and professional “chamchas” of Modi are making his campaign look a little too comical. Like I said yesterday, Modi is threatening to dislodge Kapil Sharma of Comedy Nights with Kapil fame, not Manmohan Singh, the learned PM of India. Let the charade go on…..it could all end in a classic Greek tragedy for him!

Comedy nights with Narendra Modi!

Narendra Modi will soon topple the funniest comedy-show host on TV, Kapil Sharma of Comedy Nights with Kapil fame! The way Modi is going, Kapil has no hopes at all. Modi is bizarrely gifted, with hilarity running through his every vein…..every time he opens his mouth, his audience goes “Wow, did he really say that?”!! Move over Kapil….Modi’s taking over!

I mean how do you manage to write such comical copy as to confuse your party’s founder Shyama Prasad Mookerjee (whose role in the freedom struggle is minor at best) with a genuine revolutionary by the name of Shyamji Krishna Verma?! Also, imagine calling a  “Mookerjee” a Gujarati at all?! Take that, Mamata Banerjee, you parochial Bengali?! And as if this was not enough, imagine taking the humor up several notches by referring to the poor man’s ashes being stowed away outside India for 73 long years when in fact, they had never left the country?! “Priceless” as Mastercard would say! (Incidentally, no one understood Modi’s jest here. What he was saying was that he can still get a visa to Europe, even if the US doesn’t give him one!).

Apart from his ability to be self-deprecating (well, ok not self-deprecating really, but goofing around with his partymen nonetheless!), Modi does have another advantage over Kapil. His show is telecast by all news channels simultaneously, while poor Kapil has to manage with only Colors! Besides, Modi is far more innovative than Kapil with history, far more creative with “facts” and far more “economical” with truth when it comes to development statistics. Such awesome width of “knowledge” is not something that Kapil can compete with, restricted as he is to kitschy film entertainment!

If a TV channel were to run a marathon session of all of Modi’s comedy shows, the way Colors runs Comedy Nights, here is what one would get to see:

• That Gujarati women are nutritionally deficient because they are “figure conscious”! Too good!
• That Shashi Tharoor has a “Rs 50 crore girlfriend”! Even Jay Leno doesn’t have this type of wit!
• That China spent 20% of its GDP on education, making even the Communist Party of that country squirm! But see the self-deprecating nature again, behaving like a bafoon, making his party look really sorry?! For it is the UPA that is spending a lot more on education than the NDA did during its term! Modi’s jab was at his own party!
• That Alexander the Great actually reached the banks of the Ganges, when the poor soul had to return from the banks of the Beas in Punjab! Alexander owes Modi one for this good PR effort on his behalf!
• And then this minor issue of where Takshashila is located! What a good joke that was!
• And when it comes to numbers, Modi is truly a genius! Like this wisecrack that the UPA government converted 8.4% (growth rate during one year of NDA rule) to 4.8% (again during one year of UPA rule)! See how creative he is, flicking the numbers around and making magic with them?! I mean how many people would even have the guts to take a single year’s growth number and compare it with another single year’s? Sheer genius! Now if Chidambaram did the same and brought up 2010-11’s 10% growth and compared it with Vajpayee’s 4% in 2001-2, Modi would succeed in hitting two birds with one stone! Scoring a point (no matter how ludicrous) against the UPA…..and also making Vajpayee atone for his “rajdharma” rebuke!
• And of course, all the drama about the “lacs” who attend his “massive rallies”?! Those poor souls who crowd these rallies, those who are plucked out of their humdrum rustic lives, put onto waiting trains and buses and made to listen to some truly inspirational gyaan from the messiah?! Rakeysh Omprakash Mehra, the Director of Bhaag Milkha Bhaag could have learnt a trick or two from Modi on how to create the illusion of big crowds! Modi is truly good fun to watch!

Modi’s forte clearly seems to be history. And juxtaposing his considerable knowledge of it with “contextually relevant” topics! For example, yesterday he was speaking at a hospital run by a Muslim trust (since when did we start classifying hospitals this way?!). In Modi’s creative mind, Muslims = Pakistan (the context). So he used the occasion to attack the Congress for having partitioned the country (history)! So what would Modi have preferred instead? A united India, with Muslims making 30% of the population?! He can’t handle 13% Muslims, how would he do 30%?!

Modi has started to self-actualize now. He has become an inspiration to other humorists, making them do better. Like those on twitter who were having a field day yesterday about Modi’s failed marriage, saying that he will probably hold the PM responsible even for that! Or Shobha De who in TOI yesterday felt so inspired as to write some truly funny copy on Modi! And even his own partymen who build funny-sounding defences after Modi has “hit and run”, like after the China education spend remark!

The real truth is that Modi may or may not become PM. But whichever party forms the next government, it should create a new “Ministry of Comedy” and make Modi it’s minister! His only job should be to make one speech a day….keeping us all fully entertained! Kapil Sharma, beware. You have serious competition!

Congress right in shunning "fraud" opinion poll discussions on TV

Everyone knows these opinion polls are a sham. They are more “entertainment” than “science”. They are almost always off the mark, and that too, by a huge margin. In the rare instance they are not, it is simply because of the generosity of probabilities; something has to come good, sometime! The fact is that most of these polls are conducted by news channels, which are so strapped for funds, and so desperate to increase their viewership, that they have all the motivation they need to make the research literally “quick and dirty”!

After all, look at the poll forecasts made in 1999, 2004 and 2009. How many of them came even close to being right? None! (My favorite is “The Mood of the Nation” poll that India Today conducts…..it has got it exactly wrong in each of the above years! That too when its sample size is much higher than what TV channels deploy these days!). And this, at the “aggregate” level where statistical errors tend to “average” themselves out. At the state level, it becomes more complicated as sample sizes drop dramatically. At a constituency level, it is almost impossible to predict outcomes. And imagine the complication in this entire business considering that seats are contested at the constituency level, not state or national. Everything depends on the spread of the lead. If a party leads by just 1% at the state level, and this lead is uniform in all the constituencies, it will win ALL the seats in the state. However, if the lead is concentrated in a few constituencies, that 1% lead may actually make the party second in the state. That’s why there is a usually a small gap in voting % for the top two parties, but a much larger seats difference between them.

Why do media outlets do such a shoddy job? For one, there is no law to regulate such polls. The only thing that matters is that it should “appear” to be OK. That is why a sample size of 2-3000 is considered adequate for a full state. Then there is the economics to be considered. A sample size of this order makes the cost of the research – maybe around Rs 20 lacs or so “affordable”. Besides, I suspect TV channels actually prefer the smaller sample sizes…..the “froth” they generate makes for more sensationalist points to make on-air! For eg., the AAP has suddenly increased its chances in Delhi….that’s great TV content, truth be damned!

Any researcher will advise that the closer the contest, the more the requirement of sample size. In most states going to the polls now, the gap in voting % appears to be tiny (In Bastar for example, the win margins are as low as 100-200 votes in many seats). A larger sample size is also required when there is more heterogeneity. It’s well established that state elections are fought on micro-local issues, and these change as often as the dialect changes – every few kms. Yet, our polls scarcely recognize this fact.

Further, there is another reason the Congress should boycott poll discussions. Just look at the kind of panels these channels put together for the deb.tes Here is how it typically goes. The news anchor usually has a strong anti-establishment viewpoint, because being neutral is considered too “soft”. The other panelists are ALL “involved” parties. In the case of journos, MOST are aligned with one party or the other. It’s a matter of easy observation that the likes of Swapan Dasgupta, Ashok Malik, Minhaz Merchant, Madhu Kishwar, Prabhu Chawla and scores more are all aligned with the BJP. Then there are others called “analysts” – professors of prestigious institutes, Presidents of “policy thinktanks”, even noted economists and other “wonks” who are almost all aligned one way or the other. Then there is the other common trick that the anchor deploys. He packs in politicians from all parties without bothering about their strengths in Parliament. A classic composition would be one politician each from the Congress, BJP, SAD, Shiv Sena, AIADMK and BJD. See what I mean?! This is the way the anchor creates bias. Intentionally. Why should the Congress participate in such biased jokes of debates?

In the UK recently, I noticed how Sky News set up a panel. It had one politician each from the Tories, Lib Dems and Labor. That’s 2 for the government and 1 for the opposition, reflecting genuine public voting. Then there was a journalist who was truly non-partisan. And there was a public representative who offered an additional viewpoint. And remember this – a debate requires an environment where each panelist gets to speak his or her point of view. In India, even the anchor doesn’t allow anyone to speak beyond a few seconds – especially if his views clash with the anchor’s!

Incidentally, when the BJP was ruling, it also opposed opinion polls. It also accused media of bias. It also boycotted individual channels. But today, it is taking a high ground! So much for the BJP’s commitment to consistency in values!

One other point. Does our media ask itself how often it gets it wrong on all its conspiracy theories? How many times has it said that the Congress used the CBI to pressurize the SP and BSP? And yet how vitriolic is the attack both these parties pile on the Congress every now and then? It spun the theory that the Raghuram Rajan panel set up to define states as “poor states” afresh was motivated with the desire to win the JD(U) over. Now we hear that the Planning Commission has rejected that report. We heard the media mock the Tendulkar line of poverty. But later, every economist worth his name, including those who write for media, jumped in to defend it. This makes it clear that media is more interested in froth, and less in the truth.

The real truth is that boycotting panel discussions may appear to be the wrong decision…..but in reality it is the right one. These panel discussions are fraud shows; the research findings complete “nonsense”. Such fraud research is whipped up to create even more froth….giving life to a lie that should never have been allowed to be created in the first place….

“Encounter killings” of RTI activists…..Gujarat tops charts

Dinu Solanki, sitting BJP MP of Junagadh, and a close associate of Amit Shah (Modi’s most trusted), was arrested by CBI for the murder of Amit Jethwa, an RTI activist for seeking to expose his illegal mining activities. While one would surely worry about such an incident, one wouldn’t attach too much importance to it if it were just a single, isolated incident. A small Google search however reveals that Gujarat occupies one of the top slots in the list of states where RTI activists have been killed in recent years.

But before going into that, it must be put on record that Gujarat is a laggard in the implementation of the RTI Act. Let’s accept it. The RTI Act is a pain point for politicians. The UPA government – which enacted it incidentally – has “suffered” as activists have unearthed documents and scams using it. It is these revelations that the BJP has used to pan the Congress nationally. However, thanks to the communication deficiency of the Congress, the BJP has gotten away scot free for its own mindblowing record of attacks on RTI activists.

Wikipedia (http://tinyurl.com/b8vhdr8) gives a full listing of RTI activists harassed, assaulted and killed in recent years. A quick scan of those “killed” reveals that 5 out of some 23 odd killed in recent years (22%) were from Gujarat. Isn’t that rather surprising considering just how peaceful Gujarat is supposed to be? An equally high 10 out of some 51 cases – nearly 20 – of “assault” cases are also from Gujarat, a state that accounts for barely 5% of India’s population. In contrast, the known “danger” pockets – UP, Bihar, Jharkhand – account for barely a handful of assaults and killings.

There is also this other minor detail that must be brought up. That Gujarat has for long had a huge deficit in RTI Commissioners. Even today, as per the CIC website (http://tinyurl.com/d5gx3pv), Gujarat has just 2 CICs as compared to 8 and 9 in Maharashtra and TN respectively and more than 5 in most other big states. Narendra Modi’s mantra has been simple – what is all this RTI rubbish? If it hadn’t been for a constitutitonal necessity to follow the laws of the land, Modi would have done away with the RTI totally! It’s the same with the Lok Ayukta, another painful body that tends to stop a government in its tracks. Why have a Lok Ayukta at all? Gujarat hasn’t had one since 2003! These are key elements in the Gujarat model that Modi is promising us all.

What was Amit Jethwa’s crime? Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amit_Jethwa) writes this about him “Amit Jethwa (1975 – 20 July 2010) was an Indian environmentalist and social worker, active in the Gir Forest area near Junagadh, Gujarat. He had filed several court cases against illegal mining in the protected area, naming Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) member of parliament, Dinu Solanki as one of the respondents”. Well, Jethwa had become a pain for Modi’s government “In 2010, Jethwa had filed a PIL petition questioning the state government's "inaction" over the appointment of a Lokayukta. The high court directed the government to appoint a Lokayukta. Jethwa had spearheaded the campaign against rising case pendency in the Gujarat Information Commission (GIC) due to lack of commissioners. It was on his petition that the HC directed the state government to complete the appointments within a stipulated time”. Something had to be done…..

Specific to the case that got him killed “Since 2008, Jethwa had filed six requests under the Right to Information Act, probing the activities of an illegal mining lobby operating in the protected forest area just outside the Gir Forest National Park. At the time, Jethwa was badly beaten up by goons, allegedly from Solanki's party.In mid-2010, he filed a Public interest litigation in the Gujarat High Court, citing evidence found, and naming local BJP politician Dinu Solanki and several relatives, for involvement in the illegal mining in the Gir Forest”.

Further “Jethwa's family has alleged that he was under constant threat from Dinu Solanki for interfering with the powerful and illegal mining lobby in Saurashtra. At one point Solanki threatened him in front of a large gathering at a meeting in Kodinar, the area Solanki hails from. Jethwa had recently filed an affidavit at the Kodinar police station seeking protection and stating that he would be killed by Solanki. His father recently received a threatening phone call from Dinu Solanki”.

And as is increasingly common in Gujarat – a  lack of credibility of the government’s law and order machinery – “A number of civil bodies and NGOs held a vigil in Ahmedabad on 21 July, seeking an independent investigation”. Well, none of that proved effective in saving Jethwa’s life. Gujarat’s BJP leaders – which includes the likes of Maya Kodnani and scores others accused and held guilty of the riots in 2002 – have a free reign in this state of Mahatma Gandhi. Would Sardar Patel have tolerated this? Is Narendra Modi really the “Chhote sardar” that he likes to have himself called? Crap….

The real truth is that Gujarat used to be a peaceful state. But in the last decade or so, it has morphed, becoming dangerous for anyone who dares to bring out the evil shenanigans of the state government. 2002 may have represented the worst of this…..but there are many other smaller parts to the story. Whether it is Haren Pandya, or Sohrabuddin or Tulsiram Prajapati…..or Amit Jethwa, they learnt of this too late. This is not Vibrant Gujarat….this is Killer Gujarat.