The MNS-like effect in UP….

Many conspiracy theories abound in Maharashtra about the “devious” Congress strategy to prop up the MNS (Maharashtra Navnirman Sena) against the BJP-Shiv Sena combination. I don’t know if all such stories are true or not, but they sure makes for good political gossip!

Today’s Economic Times talks about a similar story in UP where a political party called “Peace party of India” took roots in 2008. The founder is a liver surgeon (can you believe it?!) called Mohammad Ayyub (the double y in the name indicates clearly that he believes in numerology!). Normally one would be tempted to vote for a liver surgeon – his variety of chopping chopping being rather more acceptable than that of a political party! Mohammad Ayyub complains about how existing parties have divided the state on grounds of religion and caste (Congress/BJP on religion; BSP/SP on caste) and how he intends to stay out of all this. Given his good reputation, he has managed to attract a fair degree of following. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, though his party didn’t win any seats, it managed to wrest 4.5% of the vote share – making it the 6^th largest party in terms of votes. If the voting were to happen in the same pattern in the assembly elections now, he would get as many as 18 assembly seats (a number similar to what the Congress has in the present assembly in UP). He personally believes he can get 50 seats – and is contesting for as many as 230 seats.

But scratch the surface and the conspiracy starts to emerge. While he complains that the present parties have divided the state on religion and caste, his own proposition is no different. His core target group is made up of the Mahadalits (a word increasingly gaining traction these days!) – The weakest section of the dalits. And the Most Backward Castes (MBCs) amongst the OBCs. Together the two (Mahadalits and MBCs) apparently make up almost 54% of UP’s electorate. The third leg of his support base is unsurprisingly the Muslims - which make up 18% of UP. So if one were to add this entire equation up, it’s quite a potent combination. Ayyub hopes to get 50-60% of the Muslim vote and 25-30% of the MBCs/Mahadalits.

My first observation is that Ayyub’s language is the same as the language of the other politicians. He talks in caste and religion terms and is happy to divide the population up that way even while he accuses his opponents of doing this. He may be better educated, but he’s a savvy politician already – he knows what it takes to get votes in UP!

The second observation is that the only community he doesn’t appear to be targeting is the 21% Brahmin base in UP. Now that raises a curious question – how come he’s giving the Brahmins a go-by? After all, one would expect the educated and upper caste Brahmins to support a liver surgeon right? But Ayyub prefers to stay out of that segment – leaving it conveniently open for the BJP, which has the strongest hold on this segment.

Year back, when Raj Thackeray set up the MNS in 2006, his primary target base was the same as the Shiv Sena’s. Even his positioning was the same as the Shiv Sena’s (Sons of the Soil). This was a convenient set-up for the Congress – battling a tough battle as it was with the BJP-Shiv Sena team.

The comparisons between the MNS and Peace party of India are quite a lot. Both the parties accuse their so called “masters” quite strongly and openly. The MNS charges the Congress with being two-faced. The Peace party charges the BJP with dividing UP on religious lines. The reality may be very different. In politics, the truth is hidden beneath several layers of deceit. Is MNS the B-team of the Congress in reality? Is the Peace party a B-team of the BJP? No one will ever know though suspicions will remain. The other strange similarity between the MNS and the Peace party is that both got exactly the same vote share in the previous state elections – 4.5%. This made the MNS the sixth largest party in Maharashtra after the Congress, NCP, BJP, Shiv Sena and the Third front. Exactly the same as the Peace Party! Again, MNS got 13 seats in the last assembly elections in Maharashtra – similar to the 18 that Ayyub would have got basis the Lok Sabha performance of his party! Interesting coincidences, aren’t they?!

In a highly fractious election like happens in Maharashtra and UP, even a few % points of vote swings can make a difference between a winner and a loser. There are perhaps few other states where the votes are split so widely – where so many political parties exist. In most states, it is a two or three way contest – usually the Congress is one party and the other party could be a regional party or the BJP. In TN it is the DMK, AIADMK and the Congress. In Karnataka it is the BJP, JD(S) and the Congress. In AP, it is the Congress, TDP and the TRS (and only now Jagan’s party). In Gujarat, Rajasthan and MP it is a straight Congress/BJP fight. In Punjab, it is SAD, BJP and Congress. In WB, it is the Left, TMC and the Congress. It’s only really in Bihar that a multicornered contest exists between the JD (U), BJP, RJD and Congress though the Congress is a very small party. Does it mean that a similar strategy could be adopted in Bihar? But it’s definitely not surprising then why the Peace party has taken roots in UP…..

The real truth is Ayyub’s ascendancy in UP makes for interesting political conspiracy story. It is stories like these which make the coverage of politics so interesting! Whether the BJP will gain from this or not time will surely tell…..Whether Ayyub is a partner of the BJP we may never come to know.

Does the corruption issue even matter in UP?

Just two weeks back, Anna sat on his fast in Mumbai. For nearly a year before then – since the time the CWG scam first broke – the country had been soaked from head to toe in one corruption case after another. And yet when it has come to actual crunch time in India’s largest state UP, the corruption issue does not seem to figure in poll calculations.

The only thing that appears to be mattering in UP is caste and religion. Relegated to the back burner is also the other issue that we like to think matters to people. Economic growth. There have been some stories in the press that UP has seen its best growth rates in the recent few years under Mayawati – yet in almost none of the political speeches that get made in UP (even by Mayawati herself) does the subject of growth figure as a point. So neither corruption, nor growth appears to be important to the elections in UP.

The best description of political parties in UP is on lines of caste and religion. The BSP represents the dalits. The Brahmins were with it but are now apparently deserting it. The BJP represents the Brahmins and may gain from their desertion of the BSP. The Congress and the SP are gunning for the Muslims. Both are trying to outdo each other in supporting the cause of this 19% strong community. Reservations on religious grounds are perhaps unconstitutional – but ingenuous methods are being found to justify them. Even the opposition to such blatantly divisive politics is not on grounds of ideology. The opposition is on the grounds that the OBCs may desert the Congress and the SP since their share in the reservations will be cut – and hence the BJP and the BSP are making noise about it and hoping to gain from it. Not even on this retrograde issue does anyone want to speak from a position of what is good and what is wrong for the country and the state.

The furore over Salman Rushdie is another example of how irrelevant things have become relevant in UP. How does it matter to the people of UP – amongst the poorest in the country – if Rushdie attends the Jaipur Literature Festival or not? I doubt if anyone anywhere in the world gives him so much importance. Out here, the entire state (in fact the whole country) appears to be debating about him and he’s become an important factor in the elections. In this debate, Rushdie is not to be seen as a celebrated Booker prize winner writer. The fact that he is a Muslim makes him prominent. The fact also that he has written a controversial book about Islam makes him even more prominent. That’s why Rushdie is important. Rushdie has provided a religious platform for political battles to be fought. Ask anyone in UP if they have even read the book? Or at least the offensive portions? None of them would have.

Likewise, the strategy of the BJP to induct Kushwaha – or the decision of the Congress to make it compulsory for the government to procure 4% of its purchases from dalit-run companies – are supposed to be masterstrokes. Kushwaha’s corruption is a small issue – just a minor irritant. If you thought it was an embarrassment for the BJP, think again. The battleground is UP – not the English news channel studios. The BJP is more than happy to be torn apart on Arnab’s show – and let him enjoy the feeling of having scored some debating points – but in reality the party doesn’t care. Likewise, the Congress doesn’t mind facing flak on news channels – the strategy to please the Muslims and dalits is a well thought out one.

The media has been reporting somewhat excitedly about the new strategy that is being deployed in UP – the strategy that Nitish Kumar first deployed successfully in Bihar. The strategy of dividing OBCs further into Mahadalits. The British ruled India for 200 years and practiced “divide and rule”. I think that strategy has entered the genes of us Indians. Even if we want to, we cannot move away from it. Give it a few years and even Mahadalits will be subdivided. In the meantime, development and corruption can be given the go by.

This is true all over India, not just in UP and Bihar. In Karnataka, where so much noise was made about the corruption of Yeddy and the Reddy brothers and their close ally Sriramulu, did it even matter when Sriramulu took to the polls as an independent candidate? Not one bit. He won the by-elections handsomely. Both the Congress and the BJP lost. That’s what Yeddy keeps trying to tell his bosses in Delhi – the corruption charges against him do not matter in Karnataka. And that he should be re-instated. And he’s probably right.

That brings us to the very contrary signals we got when Anna’s movement was in full flow. Anna surely struck a chord in the hearts of people. There were at least lacs of supporters, if not millions. All of them appeared to be concerned about corruption. There were many who came from UP also to the Ramlila grounds. Then what happened suddenly? Have they changed their mind? Or is it that the movement was just one big tamasha driven by media – and in reality no one really cared about corruption? Because if the people did care about Anna and his cause, then they should come out and vote for the person or the party considered to be “least” corrupt, even if it was not entirely corruption free. But do we even see any signs of that at all? Absolutely none.

This is the reality of India. People in India identify themselves in five different ways as Ramachandra Guha writes in his brilliant book “India after Gandhi”. These are Religion, Caste, Language, Class and Sex. These establish their identity. After that comes Indianness as an identity. This is also the reason why many leaders around the world never expected India to continue as one nation after independence. That’s why India took so long to get started at the beginning. Even today, the divisive tendencies remain.

It’s only in urban India – where a lot of economic growth has been seen in the last 20 years that identity politics is starting to matter less. Hopefully, twenty more years of economic progress will see growth trickle down to the rural areas – and hopefully once that happens, we will start to see caste and religion mattering less. Hopefully, Nitish Kumar will win a few elections on the back of his work – and not his smart Mahadalit strategy.

The real truth is that corruption is really not a such big issue in India. It never has been. It may matter to the urban middle class, but it hardly matters to the people who matter. That’s the reason why the Lokpal Bill never became a reality in the last 40 years. That’s why we should take the Lokpal bill we are getting now – even if it is not as strong as we would like it to be. Else, we will have to wait for another 40 years. Corruption simply isn’t the most important issue in India……

A non-poach between political parties is the need of the day…..

Today’s ET carries an interesting piece titled “Party Hoppers Inc” and lists down 12 prominent (?) leaders of various parties who have either recently jumped ship. They are all from UP where state elections are due next month. Assuming that different political parties exist because they have different ideologies (some would say this is a ridiculous assumption!), this practice raises several questions about the way our political system works. Should such defections be permitted at all – especially just before an election? Or should there be some sort of a non-poach agreement between parties – or a mandate enforced by the Election Commission?

Many corporates have the concept of Non-poach agreements between themselves. For example, Pepsi and Coke refrain from hiring from each other; as do Unilever and P&G. The logic is simple. Senior managers of these companies know about their company’s future strategic plans and jumping ship would mean violating very basic ethical rules. As a measure of good corporate governance, these companies agree not to recruit from each other until the passage of a certain period of time called “cooling off” period. During the cooling off period, the person who has quit one company may work in another company and after the cooling off period is over, he/she may well join the competitor of the first company. But at least this way, trade secrets are protected; ideologies defended.

Why should the same not be expected from politicians and political parties? After all, political ideologies of many parties differ diametrically from each other on vital issues. The BJP for instance has Hindutva as its core ideology (some would call it Muslim bashing) while the Congress has Secularism at its absolute core (some would call it Muslim appeasement). How then can a BJP politician ever join the Congress or vice-versa? After all, these core ideologies are not really learnt or acquired in a political school of sorts. One grows up with them through one’s lifetime. How can they then be quickly discarded? Likewise, if the SP stands for the Muslims (as a primary pillar of ideology), how can SP members join the BJP and vice-versa? How can economically conservative Left party members join the more liberal BJP or Congress? How can politicians fighting the dalit cause via the BSP jump ship to join the BJP which represents the polar opposite – the Brahmins?

All this goes on to prove that politicians don’t care for ideologies, but only for their own good. Now there is nothing surprising in this. In fact, an analysis of the 12 cases listed by ET today makes for interesting copy.

There is one huge trigger for defection from one party to another. That is the denial of a party ticket to contest an election either to the person himself/herself or to someone in the family. Once a ticket is denied, the person is almost bound to quit. Jaspal Rana’s is just the latest example of this – quitting from the BJP and joining the Congress. Captain Amarinder Singh’s brother Malwinder Singh’s joining the SAD from the Congress is another. Since these politicians carry a certain support base, the opposite camp is willing to hire the person for some immediate gain. There may be no long term gains, but there may be some immediate gains. Hence this phenomenon happens so close to election time.

There is one other major trigger for defections. If a politician is indicted in a scam or a criminal case – be in corruption or molestation of women or murder or anyting – and if the party takes action against the politician (something all of us seek), the person quits and joins the opposite camp. Out of the 12 cases listed by ET today, as many as six are of politicians who have changed camps after being charged on one or the other cases of crime. The ability to get votes is far more important to the acquiring party than the nature of the crime allegedly committed by the defecting person. Shahnawaz Rana for instance was suspended by the BSP when his name came up in the molestation of two women. But the RLD (now an ally of the Congress) had no qualms in taking him in. This is one of the reasons why political parties worry about taking action against those who are indicted. A sort of middle-ground is usually found where the person is rested for a while, but is never thrown out. And the right term, he/she is brought right back in.

In some cases, it gets really bizarre. There is not even a fake attempt made to make the defection look like a move based on ideology. Naresh Agarwal for instance was a Congress leader; he then formed the Loktantrik Congress; then became a minister in the BJP and SP governments and then joined the BSP in 2008. He’s now back with the BSP! Or Shahid Siddiqui started with the SP, joined the BSP in 2008, moved to RLD in 2009 and has now re-joined the SP! Or Haji Yaqoob Qureshi who started with the SP, moved to the BSP and has now joined the RLD recently! He must be thinking that he still has the Congress left to embrace! Clearly, the only ideology for these people is the ideology of power….

This is not the case in the US. When Senator Specter – long standing Republican from Pennsylvania – switched sides to the Democrats in 2009, there was much hue and cry in the US. Unfortunately for Specter, the switch didn’t help and he lost his Senata seat in 2010 to another Democrat. Defections are rare but when defections do happen, they are based on long standing ideology, not short term gains. For example, the extension of the tax cuts that the Republican Party is seeking and is asking its leaders to back is causing much heartburn amongst the Republicans. Many Republicans may vote against their party’s diktat – and some may even defect – but it’s based purely on ideology. Usually, quick back and forths are not seen in the US. Likewise in the UK also, there have been only 16 defections of MPs, MSPs (Member of Scottish Parliament) or MEPs (Member of European Parliament) in the last ten years…..

So if ideology is immaterial and if opportunism is everything, then what can be done? Obviously no political party is going to be interested in a non-poach agreement. Maybe a non-poach would be called illegal even – denying as it is the rights of a person to seek a new “job” or a new “opportunity”! But just like rules were made to restrict defection of MPs after they were elected (the Anti Defection Law), maybe this time around, the Election Commission can make some rules that prevent a politician from changing parties at least ahead of elections. Or maybe there can be some restriction put on the number of political parties a politician can be a part of in his/her lifetime. Whatever is done…..the fact is that something should be done to stop this scourge.

The real truth is that politics has become totally mercenary in India. Defections are one of the ugly forms of manifestation of the same. There is an urgent need for reforms in this area. If political parties won’t put rules voluntarily, the Election Commission has to do it for them. If we can stop defections, political parties will actually start representing distinct ideologies…..

Of course allow Rushdie to come to India….

Another ruckus over another creative artist. First it was MF Hussain who raised the hackles of the Hindus; now Salman Rushdie has done the same with the Muslims. Proves only one point really – no matter how much India progresses economically, we remain as orthodox a society as ever. Why can’t we become a more liberal country? Why do we have to evaluate everything from the prism of religion and faith?

I don’t intend to comment on the specific grouse that the Muslims have against Rushdie. I haven’t even read The Satanic Verses. But I believe there is something that Rushdie has written that is offensive to Islam. My simple suggestion to my Muslim friends is: if it’s offensive, just ignore the writer. Don’t buy his books. Shun him. Protest against him when he lands (in a non-violent manner) in India. Raise your voice against him. Sit across him on a debate and prove his point wrong. But how can we stoop so low as to disallow a celebrated writer a visa to enter the country. The country of his origin.

It was the same really in the MF Hussain case, when orthodox Hindus succeeded in pressurizing him to leave the country for good and take up citizenship of a country with which he had absolutely no connection. MF Hussain was an Indian and an Indian who did India proud with his celebrated paintings. The subject of some of his paintings may have been nude Indian goddesses, and that may have offended some “hard core” Hindu groups, but again, they should have done what I wrote in the previous paragraph. Protested, but not compelled him to leave the country. Or abused him. Or threatened him. Or disrupted his art shows.

In both cases, it is the politics that muddies the waters. In the MF Hussain case, the Congress preferred to play the “liberal” card; while the BJP took up the cause of its core constituency, the Hindus. In the Rushdie case, it is very likely the Congress will take up the cudgels in favor of the Muslims (an illiberal position); the BJP preferring to play the liberal card – albeit guardedly. The problem is obviously more acute because of the UP elections – a state which has close to 18% Muslim population. Even the BJP doesn’t want to offend this huge voter base – and hence has asked the government not to grant him a visa. Quite expectedly, almost all other parties in UP have also made the same demand. When its election time, orthodoxy is the predominant theme and the one who out-does the the other on orthodoxy wins the game!

I saw a part of the TV debate last night and was surprised with the quality of defence put up by some Muslim panelists. Their argument was that even the Christianity disallowed “blasphemy” – as if the Christians represented some moral highground of liberalism. There are all types of Christians in the world. There are the liberal ones and the very orthodox ones. We know about the “bible belt” in the US which can rival any degree of orthodoxy found in India. Giving select examples like this may help to win an argument on TV, but it does nothing to make progress in one’s thinking. We need to decide this for our country – do we want to be liberal at all or not? If we want to be, we should set examples, or follow the right ones, rather than hide behind convenient but retrograde examples.

While it is religion that gives faith and hope to all, it is also true that it often divides people. Many of the world’s conflicts are on grounds of religion. The tension in the relationship between Christians and Muslims is well known – with the crusades mounted by the Church between the 11^th and13th centuries well documented. Likewise, the 2^nd World War had the persecution of Jews as the central theme. The division of Sudan (Muslims and Christians), the rivalry between Ireland and the UK (related to Protestant and Catholic divisions) and the rivalry between Iran and Iraq (Shias and Sunnis) has much to do with religious divide. In India, we have seen a widening of the chasm between Hindus and Muslims over the years. Rather than bringing people together, religion sometimes divides people especially if it is used as a political tool. It’s not religion that is a problem; it is the people who use religion as a political tool that is the problem.

It’s not difficult to understand why political parties are taking the stand they are on the issue. The Congress has always been mindful of Muslim sentiments (minority appeasement as some argue), even if they are often illiberal. One remembers the Shah Bano case where the Congress (under Rajiv Gandhi) preferred to side with Muslim orthodoxy than liberalism. The SP has always considered itself to be the protector of Muslim interests – and so opposes anything that goes against the Muslim sentiment. What about the BJP? Quite clearly, its pro-Hindu ideology is synonymous with an anti-Muslim stance and hence it’s tempted to take potshots at the Muslims on such issues. Had it not been for the UP elections, the party would have strongly demanded that Rushdie be allowed entry into India.

I am clear that Rushdie should be given the visa to visit the Jaipur Literature Festival. By all measures, Rushdie is eminently qualified to participate at the Festival. He may have written something controversial in The Satanic Verses, but he continues to remain a celebrated writer. He’s been honored with several awards, including the Booker. Why would we even think of denying him the visa?

Unfortunately, given the UP elections, it is likely that the Indian government may deny him the visa and if that happens, that will be tragic. Fortunately, most media is supporting his visa request. Let’s see what eventually happens.

The real truth is that economic progress is one thing and social progress entirely different. India can grow as much as it wants economically, but it is struggling to grow socially. It may become the world’s number 1 economy in just half a century, but to become the world’s most liberal country may take many eons. If democracy is about personal freedom, and freedom of expression, then all right minded people must oppose any attempts by anyone to put limitations on these cherished principles…..

Is this what West Bengal voted Mamata to power for?

She’s been opposing almost everything that the central government has proposed. She’s still behaving like a revolutionary, battling an imaginary enemy. Suddenly, having vanquished her enemy-of-long, she’s without a target in front. Mamata has suddenly become like a headless chicken – unsure of her purpose in life – running helter skelter in a maddening and heady start to her tenure. In the process, is she misreading the mandate the people of WB gave her?

I think so. After 35 years of Left rule – and tyranny – the people of West Bengal voted as much against the Left as they did for Mamata. Under the Left, Bengal suffered, losing its pride of place in the Indian economic growth story. Right under its nose, cities like Hyderabad, Ahmedabad and Pune arose – and grabbed the top rankings of growth cities in India – pushing Kolkata down to a lowly position. Who wants to go and work in Kolkata any longer? Not many. From being a work destination of choice in the 70s, Kolkata has become a net exporter of high quality managerial and creative talent. The saying in corporate circles is that if you want good talent, recruit in Kolkata. After a few years, take them out of Kolkata and give them the best opportunities. They will almost always shine. For many years now, almost all professionals are willing to leave Kolkata to go to work anywhere in the country. In Kolkata, they feel suffocated.

It’s this suffocation that people voted against. And that’s what Mamata does not understand. After the tragic fire at the AMRI hospital, what Mamata was most keen on was to pack off a section of Kolkata’s influential Marwari business community. Now that community – the last bastion of industrial and trading progress in the city – is threatening to move out of WB. I doubt if Mamata even cares about what the learnings are from AMRI. For her, it’s the political mileage she gets by showing her anti-capitalist credentials. For her, being anti-capitalist is the same as being pro-poor. But does it have to be this way? As she sees it, it was her opposition to the Tatas Nano project in Singur and to Salim Group’s in Nandigram that got her to power. She’s just continuing in the same vein. But is Mamata right? Jailing independent directors is perhaps a good political strategy to shift the blame away from oneself, but isn’t that what the Left used to do? How is she any different from the Left?

One earlier post I wrote on 13^th May after the WB elections read: In WB the Left is being booted out and how! The Left has destroyed the pride of the Bengalis. It’s not so much economic degradation....it’s about putting the Bengalis – amongst the most intelligent of all people in this country – behind their counterparts in the country. It’s the assumption of absolute authority that has upset the people the most. The urban areas had rejected the Left a long time back....now the rural areas have also done the same. This is a revolution....what happens once Mamata takes over is unknown. But what is clear is that the people don’t want the Left parties to rule. It’s not that clear however if the people of WB have rejected the Left ideology....some say that Mamata is more Left than even the Left parties. If this is true, WB will remain a communist state.....let’s wait and see what Mamata does now. Her likely Finance Minister – Dr. Amit Mitra – is surely not known to be much of a socialist thinker (in spite of his Delhi School of Economics education!).

Did the people of Bengal reject the Left ideology or did they just want a different – maybe a little less ruthless – version of the same soup that they have been served for nearly four decades? My bet is that Bengal is dying for economic liberalization. They want factories and industries, so that they can get jobs in their own state. They want private capital to flow in. They want to shop at the big Walmarts and Tescos. They’ve partially seen the gains to be had from the BPO revolution – but they know they still lag behind many smaller cities. The quality of urban infrastructure in Kolkata is worse than even in Mumbai. The number of pre-historic Ambassador cars in Kolkata is so high that a visitor to Kolkata would be confused if he/she has been transported back in time!

What people in Kolkata have voted for is change. In the absence of any liberal option to the Left, they voted for Mamata. Soon, they will be disappointed. If in the meantime, the Left becomes even slightly liberal – though I believe that’s a near impossibility – Mamata’s dream run will be over even before her term ends. She obviously hasn’t learnt her lessons from the past. She partnered with the BJP in 1999 and won 8 MPs in alliance with them, but ditched them soon thereafter. She joined hands with the Congress for the 2001 assembly elections. Having changed partners, the people gave her a thumbs down in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, when she managed to win only one seat. Likewise, in the 2006 assembly elections, the people gave her a snub for ditching the BJP – giving her only 30 MLAs in the assembly. What has happened since then is that she’s emerged back with the active support of the Congress. She’s now been with the Congress for nearly ten years. It is stability that has earned her the extra seats. She shouldn’t forget this lesson. She changes partners now…..she will be punished again.

What Mamata needs to do is show a liberal face. It’s the first time in a long long time that the state government in WB is from the same coalition as the central government. She should use this to her advantage. It’s ok for her to be upset about a few things, but she cannot make this into a compulsive routine. She should exploit the Congress’s numerical weakness at the Center to get more funds for WB and more projects sanctioned – but she shouldn’t push the center so much that they start looking for alternate allies. If Mamata now went into the opposition’s grouping, her decline in WB would have begun.

As much as it is a delicate and tentative time for the Congress at the center, so also is it for Mamata in WB. The only difference is that the Congress realizes its position and is playing it cool till it’s necessary; Mamata doesn’t and is continuing to throw her weight around. The Congress is clearly playing a waiting game – waiting for the UP results to spring up a more reliable ally in SP. If that happens, Mamata will suddenly find herself ousted from her position of strength. Who’s she going to throw a tantrum against then?

In the meanwhile, the field in West Bengal is being readied for parties with a liberal ideology. Both the BJP and the Congress have an opportunity of a lifetime to make inroads into the state. Both follow liberal economic policies – unfortunately neither has a strong state cadre. The Congress does have an advantage over the BJP given the state’s high Muslim population (some 18% or so), and as I had written earlier, the BJP never does well in a state with Muslim population above 10%.

The real truth is that Mamata runs the risk of losing the huge support she got in the assembly elections. Remember how Rajiv Gandhi frittered away the 411 seats he got in the 1984 elections? That’s what absolute power does. It makes politicians blind. Mamata’s 184 seats are almost 2/3rds of the assembly – that’s why she’s got the nerve to threaten the Congress to pull out of her government. But if she were smart, she would push the Congress, but never too much. If she were smart, she would let Dr. Amit Mitra – her liberal finance minister – have a bigger role to play…….but will she????

Does the Congress have a lot to cheer about now?

A few developments of recent weeks are bound to give the Congress government a lot to cheer about. Maybe 2012 will be the year when the party finds its mojo back. Hopefully, it is able to lift itself out of the pit that it finds itself in at the moment.

Food inflation is down to negative numbers – and though this comes on the back of the high base of last year, it must be a lot of relief to policy makers. Imagine if inflation had continued to remain high even now? That would have had a massive impact on the results of the polls in the five states next month. As if on cue, the RBI has now indicated that it might lower interest rates in the near future. That should give relief to a beleaguered industry, which has been reeling under the pressure of high interest costs. The general expectation amongst analysts about corporate results in the Oct-Dec quarter is that revenue growth will slow down significantly (BSE sensex companies @ 19% compared to some 25% in the Apr-June quarter) and profit growth will be very tepid. Some forecasts talk of negative profit growths. A low interest regime is urgently needed to kick-start investments in the industrial sector.

Then there is the sudden and dramatic waning of the Anna movement. With public disenchantment growing, the veteran serial faster has decided not to campaign against the Congress in the polls next month. Even though Anna’s effect would have been limited in any case – given the huge amount of logistics required to cover such a large area – it would still have been a worry in the Congress’s mind. The real impetus to the Anna movement in any case came from media – and even before Anna decided to call off his campaigning, the media interest in Anna had been waning. That was perhaps one of the factors in his decision. Will this have a positive rub-off on the Congress’s prospects in UP? Well, that remains to be seen. If as expected, the party gains power in Uttarakhand and Punjab – both from the NDA’s fold – that will be a big boost. If the Congress also does relatively better than expected in UP – it will have a lot to cheer about.

Then there is this surprising (or not so surprising?) hand of friendship that Mulayam Singh recently extended to the Congress. He has said that he will ensure that the UPA government does not fall till its term ends in 2014. Now I wrote some time back – on December 7^th in fact (Congress must do a pre-poll alliance with the SP…..) that the SP and Congress are natural allies. The SP has regional ambitions; the Congress national. Akhilesh Yadav wants to be CM; Rahul Gandhi PM. Both have helped each other in the past. Both perhaps realize that neither can form a government at the state or the center on their own. Ideally they should have just done a pre-poll alliance. That would have ensured that the combination certainly defeated the BSP. Now it’s a little unsure. My own feeling is that UP will throw up a hung assembly and maybe Mulayam is preparing for that scenario. He will need the Congress’s support to set up his government in UP if that happens, the Congress will only be too happy to grab his hand of friendship. After all, the Congress surely must be desperate to get Mamata off its back.

And finally, the Congress has done very well in the recent Maharashtra municipal council polls all across the state. The Congress and the NCP fought elections separately – and both have managed to relegate the BJP to the 3^rd position. Further, it is widely believed that in the strategic Bombay Municipal Corporation (BMC) polls in Mumbai next month, the NCP and the Congress will form an alliance. Till now, they have always fought the BMC elections separately – giving the Shiv Sena-BJP-RPI combination an easy chance to take power in the BMC. If the two parties do form the alliance, it is nearly certain that the two will come to power.

And lastly, the BJP’s own self-goal in UP and its likely poor performance in Uttarakhand and Punjab (with its partner, the SAD) is likely to give the Congress a lot of competitive joy. The Kushwaha episode has already dented the BJP’s claim of being less corrupt. With Team Anna finally attacking the BJP on its u-turn on the Lok Ayukta matter and the induction of Kushwaha into the party, and with Yeddy again threatening the BJP with dire consequences in Karnataka, the party finds itself on the back foot.

What should we expect from a relative period of political calm in the near future? If the statements made by the PM and the ministers are anything to go by, we should expect renewed vigor in terms of policy decisions. The PM and the Finance Minister keep saying that the decision to allow FDI in retail will be revived. Maybe with SP in the fold post the UP elections, the decision will indeed be revived. Maybe the SP will also ensure that the pension bill goes through – the BJP already supports it. The new aviation minister Ajit Singh has said today that he will recommend FDI all the way up to 49% - the talk in the past had only been for a 26% limit. All this is good news – the decision making process in the government has come to a grinding halt in the last year and more.

What is likely to happen to the Lokpal Bill in the budget session? One clear reason why the Congress agreed to delay the start of the budget session till after the UP elections is because of the alignment it expects to have with the SP. But the SP is not going to be a supporter of the Lokpal Bill. What happens to the Lokpal Bill will depend on what kind of compromises the Congress is willing to make. I personally feel that the Lok Ayukta clause will be dropped in its entirety. Almost no party wants it – and with Anna’s pressure off – how could the Congress be bothered if the Act provides for Lok Ayuktas or not? With the Lok Ayukta provision off, will the SP be willing to play ball? If the BSP loses the UP elections, will Mayawati’s 18 MPs in the Rajya Sabha support the passage of the Lokpal bill without the CBI being made “truly independent” (whatever that means)? Unlikely. Will the BJP support the Bill? Again, with Anna’s pressure off, no one’s going to bend backwards to pass the bill. I have a feeling that the Bill may not pass muster in the Rajya Sabha for some more time – unless some magical intervention happens. Unless some regional parties start supporting the Bill (especially with the Lok Ayukta clause off).

What are the likely pressure points for the Congress in the coming months? The trial court’s decision on making Chidambaram a co-accused with Raja in the 2G trial will surely be a difficult nut to crack. It will revive the BJP’s sagging morale. If for whatever reasons, the Congress doesn’t do reasonably well in UP, that will put a lot of pressure on the government. If the sagging rupee puts renewed pressure on fuel prices, that will also be bad news for the government. But overall, the Congress must – after a long time – find itself in a bit of a sweet spot now.

The real truth is that whoever is in government, we want decision making to happen. We want the policy freeze to end. We want to see action. More than anything else, we Indians want to see significant progress during our lifetimes. We want new laws on corruption – but we don’t want them in this manner. I hope the ensuing period of relative calm gives us the fillip we all seek…..

Finally Anna course corrects…..has a good chance to win his support base back….

I am so happy that good sense is finally starting to prevail on Team Anna. Two-three statements made yesterday provide an insight into this. Firstly, Anna has decided not to campaign against the Congress in the five poll-bound states. Secondly, and for the first time really, Team Anna issued a statement against the BJP, though it did so only after the RSS itself criticized the party’s decision to induct Kushwaha. And thirdly, Kejriwal wrote a letter admitting that they were lost.

Let’s take each point at a time. Anna’s decision not to campaign against the Congress has more to do with his realization that they were following a wrong strategy than his health. Knowing the feisty spirit that Anna has and the strength of his determination to achieve his goal, I am not ready to believe that health could be the reason for this decision. It doesn’t matter what the public posturing is – I am happy that the decision has been taken. Hopefully, this will bring back the Congress supporters into his movement. It must be pointed out that the mood in Mumbai is distinctly pro-Congress, thanks to the inept governance that the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance has given this city for the last five years. The two rule the Bombay Municipal Corporation (BMC) – the country’s richest municipal corporation. In all likelihood, the alliance is going to lose the elections in February this year……to the Congress-NCP alliance – just as it did most of the municipal council elections across the state last month. This is one reason the crowds did not come to Anna’s fast at the MMRDA grounds. By making the movement apolitical, some of Anna’s initial appeal could well return back.

The second point is equally important and really a continuation of the first point. Finally (hopefully), Anna has realized that the BJP was playing a game all along. By siding with the BJP in spite of all the deceitful support the party extended to him, Anna had made his movement vulnerable to charges of being the B team of the BJP. The bias was so apparent that even though the BJP derailed Anna’s demand of having a common law for Lokpal and Lok Ayukta, not one member of Team Anna raised his/her voice against the party. I am happy that Anna has realized this mistake. I must repeat here – it’s not that the BJP alone is corrupt. That’s certainly not true. ALL parties are corrupt. But Anna’s preference for showing the BJP as a clean party was certainly wrong. I am happy this has been corrected.

It might be worth dwelling on the Lokpal Act passed by the Lok Sabha for a moment. Everyone – the BJP, the TMC and almost all others – have objected to the Lok Ayukta clause. They have used the excuse of “federalism” to put up their resistance. But what is the real truth there? I think the BJP realized early on that the Lokpal Act was a tough one and hence it didn’t want it imposed on the states. But neither it nor the TMC realized that even though the Congress made it optional, there was still a trap that existed. The trap was that if an when a state government decided to have a Lok Ayukta Act, it would be compelled to follow the same terms that the Lokpal Act prescribed for the states. There would be no option to draft a new act for the state. When everyone realized this, they ganged up to scuttle the provision and demand its completed exclusion from the central act. Surely, this is a sign that the central act is a fairly tough one?

The third point is equally important. Kejriwal accepting that the movement is a little lost is indeed the correct statement. But Kejriwal should know the reasons for this state of affairs. I have often argued that if Team Anna does not know how to end this movement in a manner than gives us the Lokpal, they alone will be responsible for letting the country down. Here is what Kejriwal may want to think about. Is it Anna’s job to give the country a solution or should he be the one making sure a solution is designed by Parliament? Has he got the courage to look at his JLP with an open mind? Has he closely read the objections that ALL political parties have raised agains the JLP? This much is clear – the JLP in its current form is surely dead. At least some of the clauses are. It appears that the Lok Ayukta will not be part of the Lokpal Act – unless Anna mounts pressure on the BJP. The separation of powers of investigation, prosecution and adjudication is almost a done deal (this alone will make the JLP less draconian). The good news is that the CBI will be independent – or at least largely independent. The selection process of the CBI Director, the abolition of the need for permission to prosecute, and the entire public discussion on its independence and the hawkish eyes of the media will make sure that the CBI doesn’t become a part of politics in the future.

Team Anna appears to have done at least one good thing in the last few weeks. Their differences with the NCPRI have reduced. That’s good because it signifies the emergence of some sort of consensus amongst the civil society groups as well. Hopefully it also indicates that Team Anna has learnt what humility is.

What should be done now is that pressure must be mounted on the BJP to make sure it supports the Lokpal Bill as passed by the Lok Sabha. There may be some flaws in the Act, but those can be corrected in the future. Its important that politics does not come in the way of the passage of the bill.

The real truth is that if Team Anna corrects its way, it will be good for all. The country will benefit from the enactment of the Lokpal Act – even though (like I have said earlier), we need to look at the root causes of corruption to eliminate the scourge. Once the Lokpal Act is passed, Team Anna can look at electoral reforms. That’s the starting point of all corruption in the country. I am also hopeful that once the Lokpal issue is over, the country can get back to doing business – and facing the challenges that face us in our face.