Err….Modi responsible for sensex fall as well?!

A few days back, as the sensex scaled lifetime highs, an audacious bunch of stock market operators – and Modi aficionados I may add – rushed to attribute the phenomenon to Narendra Modi. Little did they care for even the slightest truth. Little did they care that the movement of the sensex followed other developments more closely than anything that Modi said or did. So awestruck were they by Modi’s oratorical flourish that they even staked their international reputations to put out one foolish report after another!

So the question today that they have to answer is this: Since the sensex has fallen by some 1000 odd points since its recent high, and equally, since the Rupee has started to depreciate again, shouldn’t these also be attributed to Modi?! After all, if Modi swung the sensex one way (up), surely he must have had some role to play when it moved the other way as well? Maybe it’s because he’s not been speaking often enough?! Maybe his slip-ups on history are becoming legendary and a little too embarrassing?! Maybe these Mensa cohorts are finally realizing that government formation is vastly different from fake, cooked up, attendance in political rallies?!

Just consider the process of government formation. If Modi has to become PM, the BJP by itself must get 210-220 seats. Now a quick analysis of possibilities for the party shows that it can increase its seats count by (maybe) a few in Gujarat, MP and Chhatisgarh, where it had already done well in 2009, and a little more (again, maybe) in states where it fared poorly like Punjab, Delhi and Rajasthan. But all of these states won’t give it more than 20-25 additional seats (over their present 117). The South and East are outside of bounds for the party. In fact, in the South, it will suffer a loss of at least 10-12 seats in Karnataka. In the East, it could lose a few in Jharkhand. So, if it has to make the 210-220 mark, it must get some 50-55 seats in UP and 25-30 in Bihar. Is that even possible? I seriously doubt the UP number. In fact, I even doubt the Bihar one. In UP, unless the BJP plays a vicious Ayodhya-like card (which I fear it will), inciting aggressive communal polarization in the process, the BJP won’t be able to go beyond 20. If anyone is likely to get stronger in UP, it is Mayawati. In Bihar, where it already has 12 seats, it may at best go up by a few more, maybe even touch 20. If UP/Bihar go this way, there is no way the BJP can hit even 175. How will Modi then become PM? Modi’s supporters will say that this is mere “trend analysis” done by an ignorant (worse, paid!) blogger like me, and that Modi is a phenomenon that will break all trends, but for institutions like Goldman and others, who, if anything, overdepend on data and analysis and underdepend on sentiments, before they arrive at conclusions (or do they?), isn’t it a little too early to put out such funny reports?

Besides, just look at the timing of the sensex movement. It rose when Raghuram Rajan took over, and introduced measures to fix the rupee, not when Modi became the PM nominee of his party. It rose when Chidambaram went for road shows and re-established the India story, not when Modi started trashing it. It rose when the Cabinet Committee on Investments took decisive action on stalled infrastructure projects, clearing as much as Rs 3.5 lac crores of projects, not when Modi put out one fake figure after another. And most importantly, it rose when it became clear that the US monetary stimulas programme would stay on longer than estimated earlier. This last one was the most decisive of all factors. Since close to half of all stock market trading in India is undertaken by FIIs, anything that encourages them to invest/stay in India improves the sentiment on D-street. Anything that encourages them to return to the US on the other hand, like recent data of growth and jobs growth in the US, will weaken the sentiment. It is because of this weak sentiment that the rupee has started falling, inspite of every sign that the CAD will actually end up much better than announced earlier.

Of course, the markets factor in the future. But the future is not a strength right now, it is a weakness. The big fear the markets are already factoring in is the possibility of an unstable government in 2014. Had that fear not been there, the sensex would have been at 25000 or more. It’s for the same fear that the sensex hasn’t performed uniformly across stocks. Mid-caps and Low-caps, which FIIs generally avoid, are still languishing. Yesterday’s ET analysis shows that it is stocks in which FIIs have a big play that have done well (equivalent sensex of 41000); the rest are still down. This weakness may be attributed to Modi (!); the fact that he opened up the field and added to the political uncertainty. The strength on the other hand, is co-related to Chidambaram, Raghuram Rajan and Janet Yellen (new Fed Chief), not to Modi.

But such is the Modi PR machinery, that anything and everything good that happens in India is usurped by Modi! I am actually surprised that Modi stopped at merely congratulating ISRO scientists for Mangalyaan, and did not claim credit for the mission itself! I am also surprised Modi stopped at Sardar Patel, and didn’t usurp Mahatma Gandhi as well! Modi is so used to grabbing other people’s credit that the joke goes that Modi would have taken credit even for launching IPL – except that the other Modi (Lalit) became too well known for the event! In this context, Modi taking credit for the stock market performance is hardly surprising.

The real truth is that hyper-aggressive PR, and professional “chamchas” of Modi are making his campaign look a little too comical. Like I said yesterday, Modi is threatening to dislodge Kapil Sharma of Comedy Nights with Kapil fame, not Manmohan Singh, the learned PM of India. Let the charade go on…..it could all end in a classic Greek tragedy for him!

Comedy nights with Narendra Modi!

Narendra Modi will soon topple the funniest comedy-show host on TV, Kapil Sharma of Comedy Nights with Kapil fame! The way Modi is going, Kapil has no hopes at all. Modi is bizarrely gifted, with hilarity running through his every vein…..every time he opens his mouth, his audience goes “Wow, did he really say that?”!! Move over Kapil….Modi’s taking over!

I mean how do you manage to write such comical copy as to confuse your party’s founder Shyama Prasad Mookerjee (whose role in the freedom struggle is minor at best) with a genuine revolutionary by the name of Shyamji Krishna Verma?! Also, imagine calling a  “Mookerjee” a Gujarati at all?! Take that, Mamata Banerjee, you parochial Bengali?! And as if this was not enough, imagine taking the humor up several notches by referring to the poor man’s ashes being stowed away outside India for 73 long years when in fact, they had never left the country?! “Priceless” as Mastercard would say! (Incidentally, no one understood Modi’s jest here. What he was saying was that he can still get a visa to Europe, even if the US doesn’t give him one!).

Apart from his ability to be self-deprecating (well, ok not self-deprecating really, but goofing around with his partymen nonetheless!), Modi does have another advantage over Kapil. His show is telecast by all news channels simultaneously, while poor Kapil has to manage with only Colors! Besides, Modi is far more innovative than Kapil with history, far more creative with “facts” and far more “economical” with truth when it comes to development statistics. Such awesome width of “knowledge” is not something that Kapil can compete with, restricted as he is to kitschy film entertainment!

If a TV channel were to run a marathon session of all of Modi’s comedy shows, the way Colors runs Comedy Nights, here is what one would get to see:

• That Gujarati women are nutritionally deficient because they are “figure conscious”! Too good!
• That Shashi Tharoor has a “Rs 50 crore girlfriend”! Even Jay Leno doesn’t have this type of wit!
• That China spent 20% of its GDP on education, making even the Communist Party of that country squirm! But see the self-deprecating nature again, behaving like a bafoon, making his party look really sorry?! For it is the UPA that is spending a lot more on education than the NDA did during its term! Modi’s jab was at his own party!
• That Alexander the Great actually reached the banks of the Ganges, when the poor soul had to return from the banks of the Beas in Punjab! Alexander owes Modi one for this good PR effort on his behalf!
• And then this minor issue of where Takshashila is located! What a good joke that was!
• And when it comes to numbers, Modi is truly a genius! Like this wisecrack that the UPA government converted 8.4% (growth rate during one year of NDA rule) to 4.8% (again during one year of UPA rule)! See how creative he is, flicking the numbers around and making magic with them?! I mean how many people would even have the guts to take a single year’s growth number and compare it with another single year’s? Sheer genius! Now if Chidambaram did the same and brought up 2010-11’s 10% growth and compared it with Vajpayee’s 4% in 2001-2, Modi would succeed in hitting two birds with one stone! Scoring a point (no matter how ludicrous) against the UPA…..and also making Vajpayee atone for his “rajdharma” rebuke!
• And of course, all the drama about the “lacs” who attend his “massive rallies”?! Those poor souls who crowd these rallies, those who are plucked out of their humdrum rustic lives, put onto waiting trains and buses and made to listen to some truly inspirational gyaan from the messiah?! Rakeysh Omprakash Mehra, the Director of Bhaag Milkha Bhaag could have learnt a trick or two from Modi on how to create the illusion of big crowds! Modi is truly good fun to watch!

Modi’s forte clearly seems to be history. And juxtaposing his considerable knowledge of it with “contextually relevant” topics! For example, yesterday he was speaking at a hospital run by a Muslim trust (since when did we start classifying hospitals this way?!). In Modi’s creative mind, Muslims = Pakistan (the context). So he used the occasion to attack the Congress for having partitioned the country (history)! So what would Modi have preferred instead? A united India, with Muslims making 30% of the population?! He can’t handle 13% Muslims, how would he do 30%?!

Modi has started to self-actualize now. He has become an inspiration to other humorists, making them do better. Like those on twitter who were having a field day yesterday about Modi’s failed marriage, saying that he will probably hold the PM responsible even for that! Or Shobha De who in TOI yesterday felt so inspired as to write some truly funny copy on Modi! And even his own partymen who build funny-sounding defences after Modi has “hit and run”, like after the China education spend remark!

The real truth is that Modi may or may not become PM. But whichever party forms the next government, it should create a new “Ministry of Comedy” and make Modi it’s minister! His only job should be to make one speech a day….keeping us all fully entertained! Kapil Sharma, beware. You have serious competition!

Congress right in shunning "fraud" opinion poll discussions on TV

Everyone knows these opinion polls are a sham. They are more “entertainment” than “science”. They are almost always off the mark, and that too, by a huge margin. In the rare instance they are not, it is simply because of the generosity of probabilities; something has to come good, sometime! The fact is that most of these polls are conducted by news channels, which are so strapped for funds, and so desperate to increase their viewership, that they have all the motivation they need to make the research literally “quick and dirty”!

After all, look at the poll forecasts made in 1999, 2004 and 2009. How many of them came even close to being right? None! (My favorite is “The Mood of the Nation” poll that India Today conducts…..it has got it exactly wrong in each of the above years! That too when its sample size is much higher than what TV channels deploy these days!). And this, at the “aggregate” level where statistical errors tend to “average” themselves out. At the state level, it becomes more complicated as sample sizes drop dramatically. At a constituency level, it is almost impossible to predict outcomes. And imagine the complication in this entire business considering that seats are contested at the constituency level, not state or national. Everything depends on the spread of the lead. If a party leads by just 1% at the state level, and this lead is uniform in all the constituencies, it will win ALL the seats in the state. However, if the lead is concentrated in a few constituencies, that 1% lead may actually make the party second in the state. That’s why there is a usually a small gap in voting % for the top two parties, but a much larger seats difference between them.

Why do media outlets do such a shoddy job? For one, there is no law to regulate such polls. The only thing that matters is that it should “appear” to be OK. That is why a sample size of 2-3000 is considered adequate for a full state. Then there is the economics to be considered. A sample size of this order makes the cost of the research – maybe around Rs 20 lacs or so “affordable”. Besides, I suspect TV channels actually prefer the smaller sample sizes…..the “froth” they generate makes for more sensationalist points to make on-air! For eg., the AAP has suddenly increased its chances in Delhi….that’s great TV content, truth be damned!

Any researcher will advise that the closer the contest, the more the requirement of sample size. In most states going to the polls now, the gap in voting % appears to be tiny (In Bastar for example, the win margins are as low as 100-200 votes in many seats). A larger sample size is also required when there is more heterogeneity. It’s well established that state elections are fought on micro-local issues, and these change as often as the dialect changes – every few kms. Yet, our polls scarcely recognize this fact.

Further, there is another reason the Congress should boycott poll discussions. Just look at the kind of panels these channels put together for the deb.tes Here is how it typically goes. The news anchor usually has a strong anti-establishment viewpoint, because being neutral is considered too “soft”. The other panelists are ALL “involved” parties. In the case of journos, MOST are aligned with one party or the other. It’s a matter of easy observation that the likes of Swapan Dasgupta, Ashok Malik, Minhaz Merchant, Madhu Kishwar, Prabhu Chawla and scores more are all aligned with the BJP. Then there are others called “analysts” – professors of prestigious institutes, Presidents of “policy thinktanks”, even noted economists and other “wonks” who are almost all aligned one way or the other. Then there is the other common trick that the anchor deploys. He packs in politicians from all parties without bothering about their strengths in Parliament. A classic composition would be one politician each from the Congress, BJP, SAD, Shiv Sena, AIADMK and BJD. See what I mean?! This is the way the anchor creates bias. Intentionally. Why should the Congress participate in such biased jokes of debates?

In the UK recently, I noticed how Sky News set up a panel. It had one politician each from the Tories, Lib Dems and Labor. That’s 2 for the government and 1 for the opposition, reflecting genuine public voting. Then there was a journalist who was truly non-partisan. And there was a public representative who offered an additional viewpoint. And remember this – a debate requires an environment where each panelist gets to speak his or her point of view. In India, even the anchor doesn’t allow anyone to speak beyond a few seconds – especially if his views clash with the anchor’s!

Incidentally, when the BJP was ruling, it also opposed opinion polls. It also accused media of bias. It also boycotted individual channels. But today, it is taking a high ground! So much for the BJP’s commitment to consistency in values!

One other point. Does our media ask itself how often it gets it wrong on all its conspiracy theories? How many times has it said that the Congress used the CBI to pressurize the SP and BSP? And yet how vitriolic is the attack both these parties pile on the Congress every now and then? It spun the theory that the Raghuram Rajan panel set up to define states as “poor states” afresh was motivated with the desire to win the JD(U) over. Now we hear that the Planning Commission has rejected that report. We heard the media mock the Tendulkar line of poverty. But later, every economist worth his name, including those who write for media, jumped in to defend it. This makes it clear that media is more interested in froth, and less in the truth.

The real truth is that boycotting panel discussions may appear to be the wrong decision…..but in reality it is the right one. These panel discussions are fraud shows; the research findings complete “nonsense”. Such fraud research is whipped up to create even more froth….giving life to a lie that should never have been allowed to be created in the first place….

“Encounter killings” of RTI activists…..Gujarat tops charts

Dinu Solanki, sitting BJP MP of Junagadh, and a close associate of Amit Shah (Modi’s most trusted), was arrested by CBI for the murder of Amit Jethwa, an RTI activist for seeking to expose his illegal mining activities. While one would surely worry about such an incident, one wouldn’t attach too much importance to it if it were just a single, isolated incident. A small Google search however reveals that Gujarat occupies one of the top slots in the list of states where RTI activists have been killed in recent years.

But before going into that, it must be put on record that Gujarat is a laggard in the implementation of the RTI Act. Let’s accept it. The RTI Act is a pain point for politicians. The UPA government – which enacted it incidentally – has “suffered” as activists have unearthed documents and scams using it. It is these revelations that the BJP has used to pan the Congress nationally. However, thanks to the communication deficiency of the Congress, the BJP has gotten away scot free for its own mindblowing record of attacks on RTI activists.

Wikipedia (http://tinyurl.com/b8vhdr8) gives a full listing of RTI activists harassed, assaulted and killed in recent years. A quick scan of those “killed” reveals that 5 out of some 23 odd killed in recent years (22%) were from Gujarat. Isn’t that rather surprising considering just how peaceful Gujarat is supposed to be? An equally high 10 out of some 51 cases – nearly 20 – of “assault” cases are also from Gujarat, a state that accounts for barely 5% of India’s population. In contrast, the known “danger” pockets – UP, Bihar, Jharkhand – account for barely a handful of assaults and killings.

There is also this other minor detail that must be brought up. That Gujarat has for long had a huge deficit in RTI Commissioners. Even today, as per the CIC website (http://tinyurl.com/d5gx3pv), Gujarat has just 2 CICs as compared to 8 and 9 in Maharashtra and TN respectively and more than 5 in most other big states. Narendra Modi’s mantra has been simple – what is all this RTI rubbish? If it hadn’t been for a constitutitonal necessity to follow the laws of the land, Modi would have done away with the RTI totally! It’s the same with the Lok Ayukta, another painful body that tends to stop a government in its tracks. Why have a Lok Ayukta at all? Gujarat hasn’t had one since 2003! These are key elements in the Gujarat model that Modi is promising us all.

What was Amit Jethwa’s crime? Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amit_Jethwa) writes this about him “Amit Jethwa (1975 – 20 July 2010) was an Indian environmentalist and social worker, active in the Gir Forest area near Junagadh, Gujarat. He had filed several court cases against illegal mining in the protected area, naming Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) member of parliament, Dinu Solanki as one of the respondents”. Well, Jethwa had become a pain for Modi’s government “In 2010, Jethwa had filed a PIL petition questioning the state government's "inaction" over the appointment of a Lokayukta. The high court directed the government to appoint a Lokayukta. Jethwa had spearheaded the campaign against rising case pendency in the Gujarat Information Commission (GIC) due to lack of commissioners. It was on his petition that the HC directed the state government to complete the appointments within a stipulated time”. Something had to be done…..

Specific to the case that got him killed “Since 2008, Jethwa had filed six requests under the Right to Information Act, probing the activities of an illegal mining lobby operating in the protected forest area just outside the Gir Forest National Park. At the time, Jethwa was badly beaten up by goons, allegedly from Solanki's party.In mid-2010, he filed a Public interest litigation in the Gujarat High Court, citing evidence found, and naming local BJP politician Dinu Solanki and several relatives, for involvement in the illegal mining in the Gir Forest”.

Further “Jethwa's family has alleged that he was under constant threat from Dinu Solanki for interfering with the powerful and illegal mining lobby in Saurashtra. At one point Solanki threatened him in front of a large gathering at a meeting in Kodinar, the area Solanki hails from. Jethwa had recently filed an affidavit at the Kodinar police station seeking protection and stating that he would be killed by Solanki. His father recently received a threatening phone call from Dinu Solanki”.

And as is increasingly common in Gujarat – a  lack of credibility of the government’s law and order machinery – “A number of civil bodies and NGOs held a vigil in Ahmedabad on 21 July, seeking an independent investigation”. Well, none of that proved effective in saving Jethwa’s life. Gujarat’s BJP leaders – which includes the likes of Maya Kodnani and scores others accused and held guilty of the riots in 2002 – have a free reign in this state of Mahatma Gandhi. Would Sardar Patel have tolerated this? Is Narendra Modi really the “Chhote sardar” that he likes to have himself called? Crap….

The real truth is that Gujarat used to be a peaceful state. But in the last decade or so, it has morphed, becoming dangerous for anyone who dares to bring out the evil shenanigans of the state government. 2002 may have represented the worst of this…..but there are many other smaller parts to the story. Whether it is Haren Pandya, or Sohrabuddin or Tulsiram Prajapati…..or Amit Jethwa, they learnt of this too late. This is not Vibrant Gujarat….this is Killer Gujarat.

Rural folks, underprivileged growing rapidly…..could create UPA-3

A series of stories being run in “The Mint” on rural prosperity (based on NSSO data) as well as the piece by Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyer in the TOI last Sunday finally draw focus to areas mostly forgotted by mass media…..the ones that are the pet of the UPA government. There is a surge in growth rates in the rural areas in general. More specifically, it is the underprivileged communities that are doing far better economically. This probably explains why Rahul Gandhi usually travels to rural areas for his speeches, away mostly from TV cameras, while the urban-middle-class centric BJP’s PM aspirant Narendra Modi almost always clings to the bigger towns.

The UPA has made it a business to cater to the rural folks and the underprivileged. Take the MNREGA as an example. For the poor who want to work, and who have nowhere to do so, the MNREGA provides a way out. By providing a guarantee for 100 days work at Rs 100 a day, the poorest of the poor have something to look forward to. For the urban middle class BJP supporter, the MNREGA is a bad word, but for the rural poor, it is a god-sent. Later, by linking the daily wage to inflation, much of the poor has been protected from the attacks of inflation. The MNREGA has had another impact. It has led to less migration to urban areas, raising wage rates there. Again, it inflicts pain on the urban middle class, who are used to exploiting this class of migrants with poor wages and inhuman working hours, as well as on industry that has to pay more…..but in the long run, it will bring about social equality and peace.

Take MSP for farmers. It’s been rising rapidly under the UPA regime. During the 5 years of NDA rule between 1999 and 2004, the MSP rose at a snail’s pace. In these five years, farmers managed to get only 25% more prices for rice and just 15% more for wheat. Now imagine this. If you were a salaried worker, and in five years, your salary went up by a total of just 15-25%, would you keep working in the company or quit it?! That’s why the farmers quit the BJP in 2004. In contrast, in the last 7 years of UPA rule, the price of rice has gone up by 96% and that of wheat by 78%. Has this fuelled food inflation. Sure. But has this inflation hurt the poor? No….it has in fact been caused by them.

The Mint articles talk about the huge growth in rural consumption in the last few years. This is a direct result of the above two programs. This consumption growth has made companies that focus on rural markets the favorites of the stock markets. Companies like tractor companies (M&M), consumer staples (HUL, Dabur), motorcycles (Hero, Bajaj) and pharma are considered hot picks.

Rural areas aside, the article by Aiyer yesterday shows how poverty reduction at an All India level has been happening at double the pace in the years since 2004-5 compared to the decade before. Aiyer quotes a paper from Columbia University written by Panagariya and More (Poverty by Social Religious and Economic groups in India and its Largest States, 1993-94 to 2011-12. Incidentally, Panagariya is the same top-gun economist for whom the BJP had unbound love recently, when he took on that spat with Amartya Sen on Narendra Modi!

Aiyer writes “The two economists calculate that in the seven years between 2004-05 and 2011-12, the all-India poverty ratio fell by 15.7%. The decline was much higher at 21.5% for dalits and 17.0% for tribals. The decline in the poverty ratio of the upper castes was much lower, at 10.5%. This represents very substantial progress in poverty reduction. In the earlier decade, between 1993-94 and 2004-05, the decline was only 9.6% for dalits and 3.7% for tribals. The overall poverty ratio declined by 8.0%.”. Now one reason for the lower drop in upper caste poverty levels is of course their already better standing. But a lot of this is also to do with the focus area of the Congress. The better All India performance is of course thanks to the much higher UPA GDP growth rate compared to NDA’s.

It is safe to say that in the years to come, irrespective of who rules, laws like the Food Security Bill and the new Land Bill will make the rural folks do even better. Would the BJP have ever enacted such laws? Today, it will claim that it would have, but the reality is that it probably wouldn’t have. The BJP has traditionally been focused on urban areas. That’s why it focused its road building program on the national highways (even then, most of the Golden Quadrilateral program was finished by UPA-1). The Congress on the other hand focused on the smaller state highways and town roads…..not as glamorous as the national highways, but more useful for the rural folks. Ditto with MSP and inflation, when the BJP preferred low food prices in urban areas by starving the farmers. There is nothing wrong with this kind of politics…..just that the difference between the two grouping needs to be stated clearly.

Can shoddily conducted poll forecasts, with a largely urban focus, then capture the true mood of the country? These polls show the UPA in trouble and the BJP doing better. A mild memory test is in order here. Does anyone remember how the BJP was riding a similar high in 2004 with its “India Shining” campaign…..again completely ignoring the mood in the rural areas…..and how it was given a “surprise” drubbing? Ditto in 2009, when the urban areas voted for the Congress (thanks to the Indo-US nuclear deal), but the rural areas also did so? That’s why the Congress got to 206. Will the same thing happen in 2014. It’s difficult to say, but let’s be clear. If the BJP thinks it has already won 2014, it’s being foolish to say the least.

The real truth is that the Congress focuses on rural areas, the marginalized and underprivileged. These are the unglamorous parts of our society….the ones that don’t make for glamorous TV. The BJP – and much of our media – focuses on the urban, and completely ignores the rural. To say then that 2014 is a deal already done is just lazy and stupid commentary…..

Modi is great in speech….poor in content

Give Modi any opportunity and he will convert it into a good speech! He is probably India’s best orator. In the initial days, this makes him look very very impressive. He cuts through the banality of politics and even gets the uninterested to notice him. Many even think of him as manna from the skies in human form. But a few months down, it all becomes very very clear. It’s no manna. It’s just dirt! That’s starting to happen now!

In the corporate sector, we have a simple rule: Don’t be too impressed or too disappointed with any new recruit in the first six months. First impressions are grossly overrated. I know from personal experience of colleagues about whom I formed wrong opinions based on initial impressions. It’s the same with candidates who impress hugely during interviews. They somehow come out as having no chinks, no imperfections. They know everything, are confident, have all answers….and when asked that ultimate killer question “What are your weak spots”, they even have the answer to that pat down! Such people should be avoided. The real world needs real people. Those who know they cannot solve all problems, who know what the difficulties are in public life, and who are real enough to acknowledge them. A real person gives credit to others when it is due. A real person is naturally humble, because he knows even he cannot deliver everything to perfection.

Now look at Modi. Going by his political rhetoric, I get the impression that he is God himself who has descended on earth. His governance in Gujarat is apparently exemplary (no one else is even close). His rising from a poor chai seller to corporate India’s biggest hero is the stuff of pulp fiction (again, no one else has achieved such a feat). His ability to connect with people, his grip on subject matters that people can relate with, all seem just impossible to replicate. Maybe that’s why a simple person like Lata Mangeshkar said what she did, taken in as she must be with the initial euphoria. Why, he even makes short shrift of his key opponent Rahul Gandhi, who appears to have so many fault lines, and none of his strengths! Well Modi is coming apart….and how.

Well, I travelled to Ahmedabad yesterday and was shocked with the state of the city. In a city of nearly 75 lacs population, and one in which there are nearly 10 lac scooters/bikes/cars, it’s famed BRTS is used by just about 1.25 lac people. The common refrain on the streets is that the BRTS is a great showpiece, especially after Modi showed it as proof of good governance, but in reality is a big nuisance. The BRTS corridor takes 50% of the road space, but caters to <10% of road users. Has it led to more people shunning their private modes of transport? No way. What has happened to the rest of the traffic? Its become worse. There are jams innumerable, brawls all the time, even abuses showered by youngsters on law abiding elders….in short, there is huge stress on the roads.

Then take this thing about basic decency. Last night, the firecrackers – the really loud ones (inspired by Modi I am sure!) – kept going off till 2 am inside of an apartment complex with buildings in a circular layout (leading to even more amplification of the sound). In Mumbai on the other hand, Diwali is much quieter, and definitely celebrated within decent hours. There is a hospital in the vicinity of where I stay. What about the patients there? Well, that’s their problem. Why did they fall sick during Diwali!

Then just look at the kind of language youngsters have started to speak. Youngsters follow those they see, and the Modi rhetoric in Ahmedabad is so strong, the language matches exactly his! They refuse to accept a counter point of view, are happy to shower the choicest of abuses on you, and are even willing to threater dire consequences if you persist with your argument. Modi is a product of this crowd, and vice versa. When I expressed my anguish on this subject on twitter, one person even said “Go back to Mumbai”. Made me wonder what would happen if Modi did become PM. Would I have to leave the country?

Forget Ahmedabad. Most of Modi’s governance is fake. He is now so smug he has started becoming unprepared. He shoots and scoots because he is shallow. A few days back TOI exposed that the Congress had spent as much on Patel’s birth anniversaries as it had on Nehru’s, proving Modi’s charge that it had forgotten Patel wrong. Today’s TOI says that Modi hasn’t even understood Patel. The relationship Patel and Nehru shared – having differences but knowing how to resolve them – is something that is beyond the BJP/RSS brand of politics. But on the most important subject – their views on RSS/Hindu Mahasabha – both were united. Did Modi read all this? Oh sorry….now that’s expecting too much! The question should probably be posed to his script writer!

But Modi has a lot of native wisdom. That’s why he has engaged a whole battalion of senior journalists to speak on his behalf. If Modi even says something preposterous, like for instance “we must attack China”, they will find a whole lot of intelligence in it! Why, some of them even attempted an explanation for Modi’s “China spends 20% of its GDP on education” gaffe! And if something is simply indefensible, they will simply go on to something else! Or point the mirror at the Congress and say “you are no different”, forgetting that it was not the Congress that said it was different, but the BJP! The onus of proving that it is different is on the BJP, not the Congress. If the BJP is to repeat everything the Congress did, then it should be branded the Team B of the Congress!

I am no great fan of Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley and Advani. But I think those leaders are well read, intelligent and grounded in the reality of India. Some of them are equally good in rhetoric and in embarrassing the Congress (remember Sushma Swaraj’s “mota maal” on the coal scam figure?)….but additionally, they also possess the real stuff behind the rhetoric. Modi doesn’t. That’s why he makes a speech and runs. That’s his true genetic coding. Shoot and scoot.

The real truth is that Modi’s “magic” – his ability to mesmerize audiences with his speeches – may last till the assembly elections later this month. But it’s a matter of time before it starts to wear off. There will be many more mistakes of the birth and death anniversaries of Patel and Alexander’s Ganges and Beas conquests and so on. Just wait and watch the fun!

Why does Modi run away from a debate?

Kapil Sibal yesterday challenged Narendra Modi to a public debate on the performance of the UPA government. Earlier, Manish Tiwari had also put forward a similar challenge. To be fair, BJP leaders of various hues have also challenged the PM to a similar public debate. When the PM refused to bite the bait, he was pooh poohed by them. Now the shoe is on the other foot.

Why is the great speaker, the great visionary, the great development guru, the great nationalist, the great “Obama of India” not accepting a presidential-style debate? Arun Jaitley can mock Sibal and others and call them names (2^nd run leaders blah blah), but how can he forget his own stature? He is merely a Sibal contemporary as a lawyer, and surely lower down the pecking order in Parliament as well. Why is he not advising his good friend and PM aspirant to take the bait and “destroy” the Congress? Sushma Swaraj would certainly be willing to a debate of this type. Why not Modi then?

Fact is Modi believes in a “hit and run” approach to elections. He arrives at a rally, makes some bizarre sensationalist points (which have no basis, no relevance), and scoots. His preferred style is a one-way communication in which the other side has no chance to raise questions. But then Modi is not the type to answer questions; he is the one to raise them! Because he didn’t want to answer questions, he never allowed a Lok Ayukta in his state. For the same reasons, he has just one RTI Commissioner in Gujarat (whereas even a small state like Punjab has 9 reportedly). And for the same reasons, he refuses to give one-on-one interviews to journalists. Why should he? He has a dozen of them swooning over him and doing his bidding at his every signal, earning the whole media the @paidmedia ignominy.

What is Modi afraid of? Is his knowledge of economics really shallow as Chidambaram has hinted? Does he really know his onions or is someone scripting it all for him? We do know that he is very well versed in matters of land, and how to distribute them to industrialists at discounted rates. That’s why they love him so much. But does he really understand what GDP is, and what HDI is, and what fiscal deficit is and so on, the things that he is so happy to rant about in every one-way communication opportunity he gets?

Does he also worry that some sharp journo will ask him for a “plan of action” rather than merely cribs? What would he say for instance on the food security bill? Will he say its bad nationally, but good in Chhatisgarh? What about FDI in multi-brand retail? Will he scrap the policy when (and if) he becomes PM while at the same time supporting domestic biggies? Is this the BJP’s swadeshi tilt? What about education? How much % of GDP will he provide for education, even if not 20% like China?! What about the land policy, without which industrialization is impossible? Will he dilute the provisions of the new law or risk the ire of the industrialists who swear by him? Will he increase diesel prices, cut LPG subsidy, raise kerosene prices and promise to auction each and every asset the government has? The problem is that Modi knows his rhetoric will get stripped if he were to face a journo. He knows that. It’s his achiles heal. He has to protect himself from such an ambush!

Typically people who are hollow in substance tend to put on a more pompous presentation. It’s the same “beauty v/s brains” thing. Modi is “beautiful” in the sense that he can deliver fabulous speeches. But he is also “without brains”, in the sense that he cannot take on specifics.

That’s why he has reportedly only given a handful of interviews to senior TV journos….and even there he’s scooted from at least one of them. If he ever decides to give an interview, he will to his favorite channel host, the one who meowed like a puny cat when speaking with MNS tiger Raj Thackeray! This anchor will be eager to cover up all the gaffes; maybe even allow Modi to edit the interview himself!

But if Modi really wants a presidential style election, and is really confident about himself, he must accept the challenge from Sibal. It’s a good chance for him to demolish Sibal and the Congress! Maybe a senior journalist can moderate the dialogue as happens in the US. But then people will know for sure what Modi stands for, rather than what he doesn’t. Then he will be able to answer the questions that many have in their minds. Maybe the PM is silent, but we know his is the case of “silent waters run deep”. Why is Modi so silent?

The real truth is that Modi is just a showman. No substance, no stuff. Just a lot of bluster. His goof ups are now starting to come out; many are covered up by eager-to-impress journos. But soon, the truth will be out. The messiah will be exposed for what he really is!