Rahul Gandhi smartly turns spotlight on BJP….

The media has been buzzing after Rahul Gandhi’s impromptu and sensational appearance at a Congress press briefing yesterday. He spoke for a few minutes; but he generated opposition and media chatter lasting several several hours! Such is the power of this man, a power he has a declared disdain for, that as soon as he makes a move, he draws the attention of the entire world to himself.

Rahul Gandhi spoke what he had to speak, and left the scene to enjoy the after effects. The media and the opposition were confused, not knowing what had hit them. For a long time, they kept harping on the “Rahul v/s PM” line, in a reference to the attack he had apparently launched on his own PM and cabinet. An alternate theme was “Rahul the outsider”. Media sensationalism being what it is, the raging topic of debate changed by the evening to “Should the PM resign”. And lastly “Has the old guard (Sonia Gandhi) been replaced by the new”. But just as media’s excitement was peaking, and the BJP was going into some sort of a heady trance, the real import of Rahul’s statement started to emerge.

First the PM’s statement from the US dashed all hopes for an immediate climax. “The Congress VP has also written to me on the issue and also made a statement. The Government is seized of all these developments. The issues raised will be considered on my return to India after due deliberations in the Cabinet”. There…..a cold wet blanket on the public revelry that was going on! Prompting even a grudging Tarun Vijay to acknowledge that the PM had behaved in a very dignified manner (imagine this, from a BJP leader!).

As if this was not enough, NDTV soon got hold of Rahul’s letter which the PM referred to in his statement. Barkha Dutt tweeted the following lines from the letter “My views on ordinace not in harmony with cabinet & core group. I have highest respect for you….hope you understand the strength of my own conviction. You are providing leadership in extremely difficult circumstances. I know my stand would be exploited by our political opponents”. Now this letter was sent before his press conference intervention, proving that a) he expected the opposition’s attack b) that he had the highest respect for the PM and c) he knew the “core group” had taken the decision. There was no attack on the PM at all. There was no “caught with his pants down” embarassment that he had forgotten Sonia had blessed the ordinance. There was no surprise that the BJP would immediately attack. Rahul knew all this when he intervened. There was something smart going on! There was an attempt to correct what Rahul thought was wrong. That leaves the opposition with only a minor point to crow about: Why didn’t he act earlier? Fair point, but it is hardly something that will occupy centerstage for long.

What will occupy centerstage for long are the following points, and this is where Rahul has really turned the spotlight:

1)    Is the opposition any different?: Read carefully, and you see a direct, frontal attack on the opposition. TOI reports Rahul said “we (my organization) need to do this because of political considerations. Everybody is doing this. The Congress does this, the BJP does this, the Samajwadi Party, the JD(U) does this”. Well, the Congress has now officially distanced itself from the ordinance; and the Bill lying in Parliament as well. Will the others do the same? Can they? (See point 3 below)

2)    BJP’s deceit won’t fly for long: The BJP claims that it has already distanced itself from the ordinance. In fact, it was claiming that its “strong” position made Rahul intervene. This is a typical BJP style, being technically correct but factually wrong, for it is well known that the party fully supports the move to overturn the SC order. It merely opposes the ordinance route! In recent TV interactions, its party spokespeople have refused to clarify the party’s position on the issue; preferring only to clarify their position on the ordinance. What will they do now? Ask that the SC’s order is followed? What about the All-party meeting in which all of them were united in demanding that the SC’s order be scrapped??? It’s going to be embarrassing for all!

3)    The BJP and its allies have the most criminals: Data freely floating on twitter yesterday showed that the BJP had 31% of its MPs/MLAs (from 2004-13) facing criminal charges, 13% serious charges. The same stats for the party’s most reliable ally, the Shiv Sena? A chart-busting 75% and 31% (highest on both counts, ahead of even Laloo’s RJD which has only (!) 46% and 26% respectively). Its erstwhile partner of 17 years, the JD(U) is 3^rd on the list with stats of 44% and 28% (and the two didn’t split because of this!), while the one it is wooing, TDP had 36% and 14% facing criminal charges respectively over the same period. The Congress in contrast had a much lower 22% and 8%, occupying the 4^th best position in a table of 20 parties. Its allies, the NCP and RLD were both better placed than BJP. In what position is the BJP in to attack?

4)  Why is Narendra Modi silent? Its amazing how the one who cannot stop speaking hasn’t spoken at all on the ordinance! He’s tweeted on everything from “Congress mukt Bharat” to the Gujarati film “The Good Road” to repeated references to some imaginary “BJP wave” to “welcoming the SC’s decision on Right to Reject”, but he’s not spoken a word on this ordinance. Why is the great leader so silent?

5)    Here is why Narendra Modi is silent: The poor great leader will now finally have to sack his water resources minister Babubhai Bokhariya for the verdict in the illegal mining case against him. If the BJP cared so much for the SC’s order against convicted leaders, why did they not sack Bokhariya earlier? In fact, why did they not sack their 31% leaders facing criminal charges? Narendra Modi’s tolerance for corruption is already well established, what with his smart maneuvers to prevent a Lok Ayukta from being set up in his state for 10 years, and with his refusal to sack Bokhariya. Guess what media will be asking next?!

Too much attention has been drawn to what the PM will do next. Wait and watch. The PM will have a successful US trip, concluding some important deals there. He will be publicly endorsed by Obama, no less, and media will once again be guffawing about him. There will be no battle inside the Congress, for the party knows how to settle such issues. But the battle outside the Congress will now start in right earnest!

The real truth is that Rahul Gandhi shook his own party up and turned it in the right direction. By doing so, he diverted the spotlight onto the others, the real beneficiaries of his party’s ordinance. As time passes, it will become clear that his party had the least reason to enact the ordinance. The biggest beneficiaries, including the BJP and its allies, will now be squirming!

Now Rajan debunks “Gujarat Shining”; shows Congress states are best off….

There have been so many stories already debunking Modi’s Gujarat Shining story. But there is a certain weightage that must be attached to the Raghuram Rajan report that was released to media yesterday. Why the report is special is  firstly, because of the author’s impeccable credentials and secondly, because of the variety of factors it considers to arrive at its conclusions. Rajan has classified Gujarat as a “less developed” state, bracketed with others like Andhra, Karnataka and West Bengal. For Modi, this must be yet another body-blow. For the BJP, a completely unacceptable shocker.

For the BJP has been pinning its 2014 electoral hopes on the Gujarat development model. We have been made to believe that Gujarat is more than Singapore and Hongkong combined, and Modi as the champion of Gujarat, the only one who got it glory, is the messiah sent to earth to save it from the “kalyug” that the Congress has got it into! Till the time Modi was confined to his state, no one really bothered to question him or his stats. But now that he’s become the PM nominee of his party, the spotlight is on him and his state. And the findings, like I mentioned earlier, are not too savoury for him.

In reality, Gujarat should be happy since it is going to be a beneficiary of the Rajan report. It will now get a higher allocation. A shrewd Gujarati would never mind this! He wouldn’t care two hoots about anything else! But Modi is in a jam. He has no option but to rubbish the report. He will likely refuse to take the extra handout from the center. If he does that, he will only be extending misery. He has always preferred to look a single economic measure – GSDP growth – and even here, his record is only as good as Maharashtra’s or Haryana’s or Tamil Nadu’s or Andhra’s (see my post yesterday). When it comes to any other measure of development, there is no place for it in the Gujarat model – be in social indicators like Life Expectancy at Birth (LEB), Mean Years of Schooling (MSY) or School Life Expectancy (SLE) – or the HDI index which puts Gujarat at a poor 10^th place in the country.

The people will decide about Modi. But here’s more interesting data from the Rajan report. If one were to look at the least developed states – 10 in all – which include the big ones of Gujarat, MP, Chhatisgarh, UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Odisha and Jharkhand – then one realizes the other dramatic fact. All of these states threw out the Congress many many years back, and yet, there has not been a change in their development status. Most of these have seen a long period of BJP rule. Makes me wonder how the BJP can accuse the Congress of not developing the country when they themselves have not been able to develop even a smaller area under their rule! Consider the following:

Least developed states: Chhatisgarh has had BJP for 10 years continuously, Gujarat for 15, Jharkhand for 8 out of 15 years, Bihar for 8 years (RJD before that) and Rajasthan for 10 of the last 20 years (rest Congress), and yet all of these states find themselves in the bracket of least developed states. Then there is Odisha which threw out the Congress 13 years back, Bihar which did the same 23 years back and UP which did it 24 years back. All of these states have experienced vast spells of non-Congress rule. Why have their new rulers not been able to make much impact? Is it time that these states gave the Congress another chance?

Relatively developed states: This list includes Haryana, Uttarakhand, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab, TN and Goa. What is obviously visible here? That a bulk of these states have been under long spells of Congress rule. Haryana has had Congress for 13 out of the last 22 years, Maharashtra has always been ruled by the Congress (with NCP in part) except for 4 years between 1996-99, Kerala has had Congress governments for 14 out of 22 years, Uttarakhand has had a 50-50 share between Congress and BJP governments, Punjab has had Congress governments for 10 out of 21 years and Goa which has seen Congress for 15 out of 22 years.

The clear picture that emerges is that its not just Gujarat that is not shining adequately. States which have seen BJP rule for a majority of the time are doing poorly; and states which have seen Congress rule for a majority of the time are doing much better. Now I know that Congress critics will argue that the under-performing states threw out the Congress, and I grant them that. But this brings up two things. 1) What did the non-Congress governments deliver after the Congress was thrown out? And 2) Why do the developed states prefer the Congress? What is it about them that they don’t want the BJP to rule?

The real truth is that just like India Shining bombed for the BJP, so will Gujarat Shining. After all, how long can the truth remain hidden. PR works for a while, but beyond that, the truth asserts itself. The BJP knows this. It knows that the Congress’s economic growth record is much better. That is why the development (and governance) plank is only a minor plank in its political strategy. The main plank has always been, and remains even today, Hindutva. This is not the BJP fighting the polls. It is the RSS….

The bunkum about faster growing BJP states….

The BJP has been making tall claims for a long time, only to be proven wrong again and again. This has earned its PM nominee the #feku tag. Yesterday, Ravi Shankar Prasad made yet another tall claim in The Mint when he said “Why is it that despite all the gloom, pessimism and lack of trust with India’s growth rate plummeting to below 5%, most of the BJP ruled state governments – Gujarat, Chhatisgarh, MP and Goa – are seeing an 11% growth rate?”. Made me research the subject and come out with therealtruth yet again!

The data I have used comes from the Planning Commission. It’s available at http://tinyurl.com/on8pa4q. The table has data from 2004-5 onwards, hence is a convenient measure of the UPA’s performance at the center. The data uses “2004-5 prices”, so it eliminates the effect of inflation (many readers still don’t understand that GDP growth numbers are calculated after removing the impact of inflation). Here’s what the data throws up:

1)    Overall India growth: India’s GDP growth over this period of 8 years is 8.5% per annum on average (CAGR). This period has been completely under UPA rule. This, as is well known, is the best period of growth India has ever seen, far higher than what the NDA government gave in the six years earlier. Let’s use this number as the benchmark to figure out which states have done better than the average, and which lower.

2)    Best performing states: Those which have grown at more than a high 9% are Delhi (11.4%), Haryana (9.4%), Maharashtra (10.0%) and Goa (9.0%) – all from the Congress, Gujarat (10.1%) and Bihar (9.2%) from the BJP, TN (9.4%) of both the DMK (5 years) and AIADMK (3 years) and Uttarakhand (13.1%) shared by both the BJP (5 years) and Congress (3 years). While Goa is currently ruled by BJP (and they are making a mess of it), the data relates to the period when it was ruled by the Congress (7 out of the 8 years). In the same way, while the BJP has split from JD(U) in Bihar, I am giving it credit for it. It’s clear that of the best performing states, the Congress has four, BJP has 2, and there is one shared by both.

 

3)  All states above All India growth rate: In addition the states mentioned in point 2) above, there are also Andhra (8.8%), Rajasthan (8.6%) and MP (8.6%) which have grown above the All India rate. Again, two of these better performing states belong to Congress, and one to the BJP.

4)    All states below All India growth rate: This list includes Assam (6%) of the Congress, Chhatisgarh (8.4%), Karnataka (8%) and Punjab (7%) of the BJP, Odisha (7.7%) of the BJD, UP (7.2%) of the SP/BSP and WB (7.2%) and Kerala (5 years of Left, 3 of Congress) of the Left. As is seen, the Congress has only one state in this list of underperforming states, and a small part of one more while the BJP has three, including…. surprise surprise…. Chhatisgarh! Another surprise is Naveen Patnaik’s Odisha…..

5)    Gujarat: #Feku’s tall claims about the Gujarat model need to be balanced with similar achievements of big states like Maharashtra (2 times bigger than Gujarat), Delhi (53% of Gujarat), TN (4% bigger than Gujarat), Andhra (slightly bigger than Gujarat) and Haryana (45% of Gujarat). Four out of these six states are ruled by the Congress, and only one by the BJP. These are all “big” states, part of the top 12 in the country. Gujarat is just one of so many others growing equally rapidly, but the impression Modi creates is that there is only Gujarat. Modi’s bunkum is of course repeatedly proved whenver anyone just about scratches the surface – data on FDI, jobs created, and of course all the HDI indicators. Modi’s smart but devilish ploy is to show an already developed state as part of his achievements, much similar to if Obama claimed the US was developed because of him (he doesn’t of course)!

6)    Economic growth not the only factor: Low growing states like Assam, Chhatisgarh, Odisha and Punjab have seen long-lasting governments, while high growth states like Goa, Rajasthan, TN and Uttarkhand have seen flip-flops. This clearly shows that while economic growth matters (low growth states like Karnataka, Kerala, UP and WB see regular government changes, while high growth ones like AP, Bihar, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, MP and Maharashtra have seen long lasting governments), it is not the only thing. Assam’s tryst with peace has worked for the Congress, Odisha’s focus on tribal inclusivenss has worked for BJD and so on.

The Economic Times recently debunked the BJP’s tall claims as well. In its 24^th September issue, the paper quotes Shivraj Singh Chouhan, CM of MP as saying “Even in this 4.5% (the assumed national GDP growth rate now), the main contribution is from the BJP-ruled states like Madhya Pradesh, which are growing at double-digit growth of over 10% consistently. BJP ruled states have done more development than anyone else. Nobody can dispute these facts.”. Well, the paper does dispute these facts when it says “Based on GDP numbers for 2011-12 (the last year for which state GDP figures are available), the six BJP-ruled states at that time (Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Karnataka, MP, Uttarakhand & HP) accounted for only 25.45% of growth. In comparison, the six Congress-ruled states (AP, Assam, Haryana, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Goa) accounted for 37.36% of growth.”.

Besides where do these guys get the 10% (Shivraj Singh) and 11% (Ravi Shankar Prasad) numbers from? These are blatantly wrong numbers. It’s not even as if they have done this well in this most recent year. Chhatisgarh grew by 8%, Gujarat by 8.5% and only MP by 11.8%. Are BJP leaders lying?

The real truth is that the BJP is wrong about economic data all the time. Does it do it intentionally?  Maybe that is why the people of the country don’t trust the party. It was voted out in 2004 when it made similar bogus claims of “India shining”. The party also has this peculiar habit – of using PR to create an impression of extreme support for itself – but it gets fooled into believing this rubbish itself!

Work on SC observations…..but expand Aadhar even more

The SC has made a few caustic observations about the Congress’s ambitious Aadhar program. While no one can fault the specific observations made by the Apex court, the SC could have used language that encouraged this progressive initiative of the government. It needn’t have looked like a rebuke (The TOI yesterday reported “The Supreme Court on Monday dealt a crippling blow to the UPA’s showpiece Aadhaar scheme”). Rather than getting disheartened, the government must work on the SC’s observations and make Aadhar all-pervasive.

One of the rulings made by the SC is that the Aadhar card should only be given to Indian citizens. This is perfectly right. After all, if the purpose of Aadhar is to identify Indians, it should only be given to Indians. The Social Security card in the US is given only to Americans after all, right? The reality is that this ruling hardly affects the actual program. The number of illegal immigrants is rather limited – a few millions, largely from Bangladesh, and largely limited to the East/North-East. Putting a process of verification of Indian citizenship may be cumbersome, but its not such a difficult thing to do. The government must develop new means, not relying only on the police (which we know is inefficient), of identifying citizenship.

The other observation is that the Aadhar card should be voluntary. This means that the government cannot deny the benefits of its subsidy programs to those who do not opt for the card. This also is fair, given that in a democracy, sharing personal information like biometrics should be voluntary. However, this ruling is also not a problem, for if the government links cash dole-outs to Aadhar, there is an in-built incentive for the poor to enroll. Who doesn’t want cash in hand, instead of the poor service and sub-standard grains he gets at a PDS shop?

Why I am saying that the SC should have used encouraging language is because of the massive benefits that it brings for the country. If anything, it is an example of exemplary governance. India would be ahead of even developed countries with this program. One of the biggest benefits that has already been highlighted enough is that of cutting wasteful subsidies. Today, many beneficiaries avail of a higher quota of foodgrains than they are eligible for, by faking the identities of others. With a biometric card, this would become a thing of the past, cutting subsidies dramatically (by some estimates, by 25-50%).

But there are at least three other major benefits that the Aadhar programme achieves.

First, it is a bold move to cut corruption out of the entire PDS system. With payment being routed directly into the beneficiary’s bank a/c, there is no role left for middlemen. The PDS shopkeeper who routinely diverts foodgrains to the market for profit will be unable to do so, as beneficiaries will buy their requirements in the open market. In the case of MNREGA payments, the role of the contractor would be substantially reduced (though it will continue to exist, because the contractor would still be the one certifying the work done by a beneficiary). Ditto in other government schemes, where concepts like “facilitation fees” and “speed money” account for a bulk of the corruption.

Second, and no one has pointed this out, is the impact that biometrics will have on solving crime. Every criminal leaves behind tell-tale signs of his act. Investigators can lift finger-prints from most crime scenes. The problem is that these finger-prints are useless without a database of finger-prints of all citizens of the country. With Aadhar, that becomes a reality. In the future, every finger-print lifted from a crime scene can be identified, thanks to Aadhar. Most crimes would get solved. Our investigation work would be better – hence the innocent won’t have to suffer. More importantly, the real criminals will be put behind bars with a definite certainty.

Third, Aadhar’s role in social inclusiveness is unparalleled. My own driver finally managed to open his bank account in SBI with his Aadhar card. Now I can pay him by cheque or electronic transfer, bringing his finances into the open. He is kicked about having a debit card, and if he starts paying more using his card, our economy will become more “documented”. The benefits to him, in terms of safety of cash, availability whenever he wants it, being able to earn interest, etc are huge. Transferring money across states – like all migrants do to their families in the villages – becomes easy. Also, since most people already have mobile phones, the advantages of mobile phone banking could be brought to them.

That’s why I get upset when politics enters this vital transformational agenda of the government. The BJP hates Aadhar because it knows that it is proof of the Congress’s commitment to the poor. And a sign of good governance. BJP supporters (readers of my blog) make inane comments like “the photo is of poor quality” or “the card looks trashy” when they comment on Aadhar. Other critics have pointed out the several start-up problems that the government has faced in is Direct Benefits Transfer (Cash transfers) program. But lets not forget, this is just a start. We must expect teething problems. But we shouldn’t give up. The benefits are just too enormous for us to give up.

The real truth is that Aadhar is a revolutionary move. It is evidence of good governance. It should be supported by all who want to weed out corruption. It has huge benefits in reducing crime. It’s impact on social inclusiveness, and the resultant transparency it brings out, is profound. We must support the program, not politicize it….

Modi’s fake encounter was with Yashwant Sinha, not UPA!

After Feku reeled off yet another dubious “fact”, this time on the 8.4% GDP growth of the NDA becoming 4.8% under the UPA, it looked like the PM aspirant of the BJP had goofed up yet again with his numbers. After all, everyone knows that the one talking point the UPA has had over its extended 9 year term is the economy. As expected, the UPA pounced on him, with Finance Minister Chidambaram, calling this Modi’s “fake encounter with facts”. Modi himself went silent, as he usually does after saying something preposterous (remember, he doesn’t even entertain questions), leaving the battle to his acolytes to fight. But there was one man who realized where Modi’s statement was really directed. And that man was Yashwant Sinha!

Yashwant Sinha realized he had been played. Modi’s bizarre statistic was bound to focus attention on the NDA’s sordid economic record, and on him as the FM of that government. Not knowing what to do, and left with no viable options (such is Modi’s political brilliance!), Sinha attacked. He attacked like a Rottweiler, against the one party he can attack even in the middle of the night. Except that he knows fully well how his chances of becoming the FM yet again have been extinguished for good!

Now everyone knows that Modi is a wily politician. No one realizes how his mind works, but having observed him for some time now, I think I do. When he made his statement yesterday, he was plotting the most brilliant, the most perfect, butchery ever. This time of his own party colleague; one who had unfortunately made the mistake of rebelling against his personal ambitions. Modi was going to expose Sinha. And he did! Attacking Sinha’s record as FM was never difficult, and Sinha must have been praying that that record never became the subject of a public debate, but alas! Here are some of the “real facts” that Sinha must not face.

First, the economy’s performance as measured by GDP. That GDP growth during NDA was way below that during UPA (5.9% v/s 8%), as Chidambaram pointed out. But here’s something that he didn’t say. That the GDP growth even before NDA was better. It was some 6%+ during the two years of UF government. Who screwed up? Yashwant Sinha!

Second, again on GDP. The NDA did very little to grow the Indian economy. GDP in 1998 was $420 billion odd and in 2004, $620 billion odd. That’s about 50% growth over 6 years (compounded average growth approx 5.9% as mentioned earlier). During the UPA-1 tenure, the GDP grew from $620 billion to $1.22 billion – a nearly 100% jump in just 5 years. And even during UPA-2, it grew from $1.22 billion to $1.87 billion – a 53% jump in just three years till 2012. It’s only during the last two years that the economy has slowed down in $ terms, mainly because of the global crisis and partly because of the policy paralysis that resulted from a vitiated political environment following the CAG/Anna “movements”. Yashwant Sinha had clearly failed as FM!

Third, the lowest GDP growth rate ever hit by the Indian economy since the 1991 reforms was during Yashwant Sinha’s tenure. It was 4% in 2002-3. That level hasn’t been crossed yet, and I doubt it will ever be, despite the most severe economic crisis the globe has seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Who was responsible for this? You guessed right! Damn….why did Modi have to start this debate off!

Fourth, the GDP growth was in the 4% region twice during the six years of Sinha’s rule (2001 and 2003). So if Chidambaram needs to consult anyone during this hour of crisis, it is Yashwant Sinha! Now you understand Modi’s grand design?

Fifth, yes indeed, Yashwant Sinha is right (finally!). The NDA did have nil Current Account Deficit (CAD) during its six years of rule and the Congress in fact had about 2.2% during its 9 years (its gone into the 4%+ territory only in the last two years). But any economist will argue that for a developing country like India, a zero CAD is not a good idea, especially when we have such a large community of NRIs that sends in huge remittances every year. And especially since we are attracting hundreds of billions of foreign capital to fuel our growth. If we didn’t have a negative CAD, our currency would soar, making our exports uncompetitive! Poor Sinha again!

Sixth, that India’s economy is actually very well managed even in the context of external debt, the other point that Sinha loves to rant about. Yes, external debt has gone up from $112 billion (Dec 31, 2003) to some $390 billion now, but so has the economy! The right measure to use is debt:GDP ratio, and that number has stayed static at 20-21% since the NDA period. What is better is that the debt-servicing ratio (ratio of interest payments to gross current receipts) is down from 18% in Dec 2013 (11% without redemption of Resurgent India Bonds) to just 6% now. So if anything, we are under less of a debt burden now than we were after the NDA rule! (Now Sinha is screaming!).

If you think this conspiracy theory is bizarre, think again. This form of attack is a Modi speciality. He attacks a fellow colleague, even while the external world thinks he is praising him! Poor Yashwant Sinha. He was left to defend his record, and in the process accuse Chidambaram of being “economical” with facts. He only managed to prove that far from it, it was Sinha himself who was being “comical” with figures!

The real truth is that this latest Feku trick of seemingly attacking the UPA on economic growth, was actually a covert operation – a fake encounter if you will – on Yashwant Sinha. This is Modi telling Sinha – and all the others who dare him – that for opposing him as PM candidate, he will suffer. If elected, Modi will not make him FM. This is quintessential Modi…..and one after the other…..each one of Modi’s colleagues are realizing the capability of this man!

Look who all Narendra Modi wants as allies….

Narendra Modi is trying to attract allies. He’s trying to prove that he is not such a shoo-away after all. Today’s TOI reports of alliances that he is working on urgently. One is with Yeddy and his KJP; the other with Om Prakash Chautala and his INLD. Both provide interesting insights into the working and mind of the knight-in-shining-armour of the BJP.

Just as a refresher, here are a few statements made by the BJP when it finally sacked Yeddy. On 28^th July, 2011, “The BJP has unanimously decided that there will be a change of guard in Karnataka. The board has advised Yeddyurappa to step down immediately.” – Ravi Shankar Prasad (IndiaToday.in – http://tinyurl.com/qzeqn49). And when the BJP was forced to act, it also dispatched 30 of Yeddy’s aides out of the party (TOI: BJP sacks 30 Yeddyurappa aides – Dec 25, 2012 – http://tinyurl.com/qfeeqh8). And even as recently as April 23^rd this year (TOI): “The BJP live with principles. Any leader is involved with corrupt practices, he has to resign. Yeddyurappa was no different” – Rajnath Singh  (http://tinyurl.com/nzdvr35).

What changed after April 23^rd that the party is all set to make a u-turn on Yeddy? Several things. One, the BJP lost Karnataka, and with that, its only spot of existence in the South. Two, the departure of the JD(U) after 17 years of partnership, purely and solely because of Modi’s nomination as the poll chief. With that, the NDA lost its raison d’etre. Three, Modi’s swearing in as the PM nominee of the party recently. Since then, like I have written earlier, Modi has become the one-single symbol of the party. And four and perhaps most important, the fact that all polls are indicating that the BJP itself wont go much beyond 150, and the NDA a little more. Clearly, Modi is an issue for the party. So what does the party do? “BJP seeks to lure exiles, old allies back into fold” as the TOI calls it!

Again, just as a refresher, Indiatoday.in reported the following: “The Lokayukta report on illegal mining, which was submitted to the Karnataka chief secretary, indicted Yeddyurappa, the Reddy brothers of Bellary, former chief minister and JD(S) leader H.D. Kumaraswamy and others and recommended prosecution under the Prevention of Corruption Act.” Just what happens to the party’s stand on corruption, no one cares for. That was, in any case, just a convenient ploy to attack the Congress.

With Yeddy almost in the bag, Modi’s sharp mind turned towards Haryana. The TOI talks of a possible alliance with ex-NDA partner, Om Prakash Chautala’s INLD, a party that has been out of power for the last two terms. The one common thing between Yeddy and Chautala? Both are accused of corruption!

Here’s what Wiki writes about Chautala (must be a strange feeling when out of the three paras, one is devoted to this!): “The New Delhi court had sentenced him and his elder son Ajay Singh Chautala for ten years imprisonment under various provisions of the IPC and the Prevention of Corruption Act on the 22nd of January 2013. CBI probe was ordered by Supreme Court during NDA regime led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee (so no Congress hand here!). The CBI had on June 6, 2008, chargesheeted him and 53 others in connection with the scam relating to appointment of 3,206 junior basic teachers in the state of Haryana during 1999-2000. On January 16, 2013 he was convicted by a Delhi court for illegal recruitment of over 3000 teachers. Soon after this he and his son Ajay Chautala were immediately taken into police custody. On September 12, 2013 the Supreme Court of India rejected his ailment plea and instructed him to surrender to Jail authorities immediately”.

Is two enough to make a pattern? Probably not. So here’s the 3^rd: Babulal Marandi, of the JVM, Jharkhand. The probably again is that as recently as a year back, Marandi had said in disgust “There was no difference between the UPA government at the Centre and the BJP-led coalition in the state as both have failed to deliver people-friendly policies. Besides, corruption has been rampant both at the state and central level with public funds being looted through various scams". But this is bare-knuckled politics! Since JMM parted company with the BJP and tied up with the Congress, the BJP is left to deal with the loser – Marandi. So what if he thinks of BJP as being as corrupt as the Congress!

All of this is enough to tell us just how committed the BJP is to the issue of corruption. The fact that Modi hasn’t had a Lok Ayukta in Gujarat for ten years is already well known and must count for something. My point is not the BJP is any more corrupt than the Congress or any other party for that matter. It’s just that the party pretends to be cleaner. It’s words contrast with its deeds unfortunately.

The real truth is that Modi’s grand alliance-plan is already making him make compromises. He’s having to settle with the proven-corrupt and the left-overs. In contrast, he’s had to party company with the proven-efficient, the JD(U). The alliance that is coming up is already looking like an eyesore!

General VK Singh a rogue? The BJP looks worse….

The Indian Express story was a shocker. As much of a shocker as the TOI story first on Nitin Gadkari’s business empire. There were furious denials from the parties named then, even accusations of impropriety and bias against TOI. Later, as the truth emerged, the publication’s stand was justified. Indian Express too has stood by its report, and said that it has more to reveal. If it were to do that, or if a court were to look at the full report, the bluster around VK Singh would come unstuck.

Several things shocked me yesterday in the NDTV debate on the subject. First, the lawyer representing the General surely has to be the most rude and uncouth person ever to have made it to TV. He was foul and threatening; and wasn’t allowing anyone else to speak. Second, the BJP seemed to be in too much anxiety to defend the General. Why? Is he their party member? Is that why he shared the stage with Modi? And third, neither the General’s lawyer nor the BJP were actually denying the charges per se. The General’s lawyer merely kept asking the newpaper’s opinion’s editor if she had seen the report herself. How does that matter? Assume she hasn’t seen it. Does that make the news report wrong? If the charges are wrong, then the lawyer should have told us why they were wrong. But he didn’t. The BJP kept questioning the timing. Now assume that the timing was indeed a play of politics by the Congress. So what? Its political season isn’t it? But does that make the General defendable? And the argument that had the General wanted to topple a government, he would have tried to do the central government, not a state, is shameful to say the least. Besides, there were sordid stories of the Army conducting secret surveillance in Delhi a few years back weren’t there? At that time, the opposition had accused the government of trying to keep a watch on them. Well, we now know who was responsible. And then the explanation that covert operations are a must for a country like us? That’s silly. For covert operations are kept covert from the world, not from the government! As a responsible party, should the BJP not have focused on the seriousness of the issue and said that it needed to be investigated? Somehow Prakash Javdekar made the BJP looked guilty.

There are a few elements in the charges which somehow ring true. Or at least sound plausible. For example, the age controversy towards the end of the General’s career. It lacked even the basic decency expected of an Army officer. It was a representation of the selfish “I, me, myself” culture that probably has brought the General close to Narendra Modi. That aside, the General’s ambition, at that point, looked like extending his own career by a year. Now with this latest charge, it looks like maybe there was more to it than personal ambition. It was an effort to scuttle the present General’s chances of becoming the top dog. That’s why the TSD, part of the Military Intelligence unit that VK Singh headed, funded an NGO to file a PIL – alleging a fake encounter – against General Bikram Singh. Fortunately, that PIL was thrown out by the Supreme Court.

Then the fact that the report was actually submitted in March this year, and not revealed by the government, actually shows that the government is acting without malice. If it had wanted to embarrass the General, and thwart his chances of entering politics, it could have released the report long back. And if it wanted to embarrass the BJP, it could have revealed the report just before the Modi rally. In reality, there couldn’t be a worse timing for the leak of this report. The BJP’s charge of timing is an obvious one. Surely the Congress knew of this possibility. Why would it release the report now? Maybe its this worry about being called vindictive that made the government go slow on the report for so many months? Maybe that’s why the government is still wary of ordering a CBI enquiry?

Then again, the BJP couldn’t answer the Congress’s point that when leaks happened of the CAG’s 2G report, the BJP didn’t take such a high moral ground against leaks. Is the BJP’s politics just politics of convenience? And when the Indian Express editor said that the same journalist who broke this story had embarrassed the Congress in the past with some other breaks, thus justifying any absence of political bias, no one had an answer. If anyone was politicizing the leak, it was clearly the BJP.

The Indian Express story has given great details in its report, just like the TOI report had about Gadkari’s empire. Likewise, when the Indian Express had broken the story of how Kiran Bedi, who pretended to be holier than thou in the days of the Anna movement, and still does now, was pocketing large sums of money (maybe for her NGO) from air travel – claiming more and paying much lesser. The details were so many that they could never be denied. In this latest case as well, the specificity of charges gives the report credibility.

Talking of conspiracies, one that is equally possible is that the General knew he had been exposed, and hence created an anti-government charade so as to weaken the government’s ability to prosecute him. The General has shown to be a very savvy mind, and this is surely not beyond him. His accusations against retired Lt. General Tejinder Singh could not be proved even after the CBI examined 50 people. Clearly there is a pattern here? What is equally possible as a conspiracy, is that the BJP has its supporters in the establishment (Army, CAG, Judiciary, Activists), just like all parties have, and it has decided to induct them into its politics (unlike other parties). There has always been suspicion of the ex-CAG, Vinod Rai. We’ll wait and see if he does join the BJP. There has also been suspicion about General Singh. His overt support for Anna was a way to announce his opposition to the government, not any concern for corruption. After Anna split with Kejriwal, maybe the General decided to take his anti-Congress politics to the BJP instead. For the BJP, anyone who embarrasses the government is good news.

The real truth is that the General Singh leaks are a poor reflection of the man who was the Chief. But even more of a poor reflection is the stance of the BJP. Even in this matter of national security, the BJP prefers to play politics. Maybe its understandable – after all, its PM nominee has been caught with his pants down!