Modi shows his true colors….yet again!

Two and possibly three stories in today’s papers show exactly who Modi is and what he stands for. The first relates to nominating Vitthal Radadiya from Porbander for the forthcoming Lok Sabha bypoll. The second to the change of heart that the Hindu Hriday (heart) samrat Modi has had with respect to Maya Kodnani, his former ministerial colleague who was sentenced to 30 years in jail and for whom his administration had asked for the death penalty. And the third – possibly – to Modi’s role in the unearthing of a land distribution scam against MP Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, a potential competitor of Modi’s. Taken together, it’s a good induction into Modi as a man. Resplendent indeed!

When Vitthal Radadiya was caught on camera threatening the toll-booth staff at Karjan near Vadodara on 12^th October 2012, he was still a Congressman. The national media – especially those sections inimical to the Congress – had splashed the story on the front pages. Our sensational seeking TV channels – especially one that is particularly anti-Congress – had all conducted extensive programming in their prime time news shows. The Congress was rightly panned for the misconduct of its MP. The BJP was all over, its spokespeople donning their usual “holier than thou” attitude. Some specific comments taken from the newspapers/websites are produced here as a quick memory refresher:

From ibnlive.com, dated Oct 12, 2012 – story titled Gujarat Cong MP Radadiya justifies his gun-toting act: “The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which rules Gujarat, said that the culprit would not be spared. "It has shown us the true face of Congress. We condemn the incident. Law will take its own course and appropriate action will be taken," said Gujarat government spokesperson Jai Narayan Vyas” (http://tinyurl.com/cxeaqv2). From the TOI which headlined the story as MP brandishes gun at toll staff, faces arrest: “Meanwhile, state government spokesman Jay Narayan Vyas described it as a serious matter. “An MP taking the law into his hand is deplorable. This exposes the Congress culture (http://tinyurl.com/d589wfd). Another BJP leader called Radadiya a “gangster”. The Congress in the meantime had issued a guarded statement. This from the Indian Express dated 13^th Oct, 2012: “Images which are being shown on TV are disturbing undoubtedly. There is no running away from it. The process of natural justice does entail that we give him a chance to explain” Manish Tewari”.

Now its not my point that the Congress is a clean, white-as-lillies kind of a party. It has its fair share of criminals. My point is that the BJP made so much noise about this gun-toting gangster….only to go ahead and hire him…..and as if that was not enough to even nominate him as its MP candidate! What happened to the “true face of Congress” and “Congress culture” and “serious matter” and “deplorable” comments of the BJP??? This speaks of the BJP’s doublespeak and Modi’s “great concern” for “governance”!

The second story is about Modi’s u-turn on his government’s demand for the death penalty for Maya Kodnani. Now let me honest here. When I read about this death sentence thing, I was surprised. I would have expected any leader, leave alone a great man like Modi, to defend his party person. My explanation for this surprising act was that Modi was trying to eliminate anything and any body that connected him personally to the riots. I had even mentioned the name of his other competitor of earlier days, Haren Pandya, whose family alleges that Modi was behind his murder (Read my post on this subject on http://tinyurl.com/d4lfhcd). My friends who commented on my post however had taken an interesting line. According to them, Modi was a great leader, non-parochial, one who believed in clean politics, the rule of law, one who never showed any favoritism to anybody, etc. Well, much of the BJP brass said the same thing. But the truth is finally out (as always!). It looks like Modi had been left out in the dark. He was caught unawares. The chhote sardar was napping when his administration made the death recommendation. Well, the saffronites, the khakhi chaddis, the trishool brigade and the “muh main Ram, bagal main chhuri” gang have all forced Modi to change the state’s decision. They will not be pleading for her death after all! So much for the great words spoken for the great leader!

The third story is about the distribution business that MP Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan seems to be successfully running as a family concern. As per a “scoop” by CNN-IBN, based on RTI filings, the MP CM has been busy allocating land at dirt cheap rates to his “mahaparivar” (a term that the BJP has used today to describe Pawan Bansal’s larger family) and his RSS/BJP cronies (talk of crony capitalism!). Sordid as the saga is, my interest is more in who is behind this scoop. My suspicion is that most scoops are not the original handiwork of media groups (as they claim), but the result of “insiders” and “those in the know” leaking the stories out to media. They choose which media outlet to go to. One day, its one newspaper, another day its another TV channel.

This makes me think if Modi isn’t behind this story on Chouhan. After all, Chouhan was deemed a competitor of Modi in the PM-stakes. He was also a contender for the seat in the Parliamentary Board of the BJP. In fact, as a result of his name being considered for this role, the announcement of Modi’s ascension was delayed. Also, Chouhan talks of development just like Modi does. Modi also recognizes that if Nitish and co walk out of the NDA if his name is proposed, the alternative could well be Chouhan. In Modi’s warped mind, Chouhan is a key competitor and the only way he knows to deal with such issues is to eliminate them. It’s my theory – but only an unproven theory – that Modi is behind this scam coming out into the public. The scam is surely true (as docs show), but its leak is probably Modi’s handiwork. This would hardly be the first time this kind of suspicion has arisen; in Gadkari’s case also, the needle of suspicion had swung towards Modi. After all, Gadkari didn’t want to nominate Modi to the top body of the party. “I’ll get you eliminated” is what Modi would have thought to himself! Some strong leader, I must say!

The real truth is that the “strong” man, the “chhote sardar” of the BJP is quite a colorful character. I shudder to think of him as PM; eliminate as he will every person and institution that dares shine a light on his deeds (or misdeeds). I only thought he lied (read my various posts on this) – and hence felt he had earned his “feku” title – but now I also know that he is a little like James Bond – licensed to kill!

The politics of resignations….one who resigns is presumed guilty….

Ashwani Kumar and Pawan Bansal resigned last week. But they did so reluctantly. Why? Earlier, it took the UPA a long time to sack Raja. Or Kalmadi. Why? It took the BJP forever to sack Yeddy even though the man had been indicted by the Lok Ayukta, no less. It took the party even longer to sack Pokhriyal, the former CM of Uttarakhand. It’s not as if only the politicians refuse to resign. Even activist Prashant Bhushan and his father refused to resign from Anna’s core committee when charges of “land grab” were levied against them. Why is it that no one in public life ever wants to resign? Is it that these people are just so thick skinned that they don’t care? Or is it that we all – opposition leaders, media, and most of all, the people – have created an environment in which the one who resigns is pronounced guilty?

Just look at what happened after Ashwani Kumar resigned. The BJP issued statements that sounded like “See, he has accepted his guilt”. And followed it up with “Everyone in the UPA is guilty of corruption” or some such thing. The resignation provided the party the fuel it needed to sustain its campaign against the government. The BJP is now back to demanding the PM’s resignation, probably for the 40^th time!

The media went hammer and tongs after the government, again presuming and pronouncing that Ashwani Kumar was guilty. They played up the “CBI is a caged parrot” comment of the SC, thus making Ashwani Kumar look really bad. They played up the “changed the heart of the report” comment, without even questioning whether this was true or not. The SC provided the masala for the media to play up. Ashwani Kumar’s goose was cooked!

The public also most likely thinks “He must have been corrupt. Why would he resign otherwise?”. This “must have been” attitude, even in the absence of any evidence is what is typical of Indian politics. Most people don’t even know what Ashwani Kumar did or did not do. And yet, they must believe that he did something, and hence he must be corrupt. Worse, by resigning, he has created the impression that even the PM is guilty. Someone posted this on Facebook “Pak's PM --- Nawaz Sharif. India's PM --- Na-Awaaz Na-Sharif….”. Crazy!

Just for the records, the SC has not even heard the matter about the coal scam yet. In my mind, the PM is the hero, not the villain in this scam. The PM as coal minister was the one who initiated reforms and changed the opaque “administered allocations” system to auctions. If there were any goof ups in the screening committee’s working (and there have been some), that is exactly what the PM was trying to remove. Besides, there was nothing “unique” about the screening committee’s working during his tenure as coal minister – the same flawed system existed since 1993 including during the 6 years of NDA rule. And amongst the screening committee’s goof ups are cases that cover BJP politicians/symphathizers as well!

Take Pawan Bansal’s case. He resigned because an investigation is going on against him. Nothing – I repeat nothing – has been proven against him yet. It could well be a case of a loud-mouth nephew using his uncle’s political status to further his own business. I have personally seen such loud mouths and in my experience, Delhi is full of such people (remember the general belief that “everyone in Delhi knows someone”?!). Such people find ways to cozy up to their powerful friends or relatives, even if in the process, they destroy their careers. It’s hardly surprising that this nephew was often seen at Bansal’s official residence in Delhi, or made phone calls from his home. That hardly proves Bansal’s guilt. But in the eyes of the BJP, the media and even the public, the fact that he resigned proves that he is guilty. This is worse than Taliban justice!

A special word for our media as always! This habit it has of judging people before they have even been tried. The “proved guilty” moment in Bansal’s case was when the phone recordings came out into the public domain. Phone recordings in which the nephew claims that his “mamu” would fix the postings. But was Bansal himself caught demanding a bribe? No. Was his voice even there on the tapes? Nada! In fact, the nephew has since changed his tune and is now telling the CBI that his uncle isn’t involved! And here’s the other “minor detail” that the media failed to bring up: That there is no money trail to the minister. Further, the charge that some company of Bansal’s family, which had taken loans from Canara Bank, gave him a Rs 15 lacs loan was proven to be wrong. Apparently, it was Bansal who gave the company the loan of the same amount! Such is the state of our media! It has declared Pawan Bansal guilty? Why? Because he resigned!

When a minister resigns, people ask “Why did he resign” and preface it with “If he was innocent”. This perception is the fall-out of the resignation. If he hadn’t resigned, those who leaned towards the Congress politically would have thought he was not guilty and all this was a political conspiracy, and those who leaned against the party would have continued to think everyone in the Congress was guilty. By resigning, he has made even the Congress sympathizers think he’s guilty. Resigning didn’t help him. Resigning didn’t help his party!

In a society – and media – as immature as ours, a resignation is seen as an admittance of guilt. Are the suspicions about Bansal correct? Of course they are. Should he be investigated? Of course he should be. Should he also be interrogated? Of course he should be. Isnt it possible that he is indeed corrupt? Of course it is. But “has he been proven guilty”? The answer in a mature society would be “no”; in India, the answer would be “most likely yes” and the day he resigned, it would have become “surely yes”!

The real truth is that if we want probity in government, we have to have a far more mature opposition, society and media. A man who resigns is not necessarily guilty. He may or may not be. A system that is flawed doesn’t mean that the people who are part of that system are corrupt. They may or they may not be. We need to know how to remove the wheat from the chaff. If we don’t, we cannot expect people to resign under suspicion….

Sonia and PM are like Chairman and CEO – what’s the big deal????

Yesterday, the BJP yet again called the PM “weak”. After having made yet again demand for his resignation – for what the 40^th time I think (have lost count now!). What’s the reason for this latest jab? Apparently because the PM had to be “pushed” by Sonia to sack Ashwani Kumar and Pawan Bansal and hence – according to the BJP –Sonia had “interfered”. Ergo the PM must quit! This kind of thinking smacks of poor intellect in general, and lack of understanding of the principle of “separation of powers” in particular.

In the corporate world, from where the BJP’s PM aspirant Narendra Modi derives much strength, separation of powers between the Chairman and CEO has been a topic of much debate. More and more companies are now opting to separate the two positions. As per a story in the Nov/Dec 2012 issue of “The Corporate Board”, a magazine that describes itself as “The Leading journal of Corporate Governance” (http://tinyurl.com/crmlkru), “A record 44 percent of S&P 500 companies now have separate executives holding the Chairman and CEO roles. This is a marked increase from seven years ago when 29 percent of companies had such a corporate governance structure, and 21 percent with separate roles in 2001. Similarly, analysis shows that 62 percent of companies in the NASDAQ 100 had split CEO and Chairman roles in 2011 compared to 45 percent with split roles in 2005”.

The combining of the two roles is in fact an antiquated management concept. Modern management prefers separating the powers. “Traditionally, in the American corporation, the same executive held the roles of Chairman of the board and CEO. It was believed that the executive under such a structure would possess multiple perspectives as well as the power to quickly enact corporate initiatives. However, critics of this form of corporate governance have come to believe that it allows little transparency into the CEO’s actions, and as such these can go unmonitored, paving the way for conflicts of interest and corruption. With a single executive holding both titles, it has been argued that the company’s entire decision-making process lies in the hands of one person, with little in the way of checks and balances. In essence, the CEO has absolute authority and, if the CEO also chairs the board, it might be difficult for that board to objectively evaluate his decisions and performance”.

Even in Indian politics, the roles have been separated, except that typically the party president is “weak”, while the PM is “strong”. The BJP’s strongest Presidents were there at a time when the party was not in power – Vajpayee between 1980-86, Advani from 1986-90, 1992-98 and 2004-5 and MM Joshi between 1990-92 (when he spearheaded the Babri demolition movement). When the NDA came to power, the BJP put weaklings as its party president; first Kushabhau Thackeray (who???) from 1998-2000, then the corrupt Bangaru Laxman from 2000-01, then the unknown K Jana Krishnamurthy from 2001-2 and finally the loud Vankaiah Naidu from 2002-4. Likewise, it’s state party presidents are all weaklings, but the CMs are powerful. The Left is no different. Typically, the party chiefs (Prakash Karat now) are less important than the CMs (Jyoti Basu for long). So separation of powers has been around, though in the reverse fashion. When both the party president and the PM/CM are elected by the people, how does it matter which way the separation is structured???

What kind of separation of powers should exist between the Chairman and CEO (and hence between the party president and the PM)? I found an interesting piece on this on the website of the natural gas company, BG group (http://tinyurl.com/cqzpbnc):

The Chairman (Sonia Gandhi) must a) ensure effective operation of the Board (the CWC???) and its committees (AICC???) in conformity with the highest standards of corporate governance b) ensure effective communication with shareholders (the public???), c) set the agenda, style and tone of Board discussions to promote constructive debate and effective decision-making. d) chair the Nominations Committee and build an effective and complementary Board, initiating change and planning succession on Board and Group Executive appointments (appoint ministers???). e) Ensure that all Board committees (EGoMs???) are properly established, composed and operated. f) support the Chief Executive in the development of strategy and, more broadly, to support and advise the Chief Executive g) ensure that the performance of the Board, its main committees and individual directors is formally evaluated on an annual basis and lastly h) establish a harmonious and open relationship with the Chief Executive. Which of these roles has Sonia Gandhi not played? Does her interest in selection of ministers or evaluating their performance or asking them to resign constitute any breach of propriety?

The Chief Executive in turn is responsible for leadership of the business (running the country) and managing it within the authorities delegated by the Board. In particular, he will: a) develop strategy proposals (policies) for recommendation to the Board and ensure that agreed strategies are reflected in the business. b) develop annual plans (budgets, laws), consistent with agreed strategies. c) plan human resourcing to ensure that the Company has the capabilities and resources required to achieve its plans (choosing ministers). d) develop an organisational structure (cabinet and its subcommittees, GoMs, EGoMs, CoS) and establish processes and systems to ensure the efficient organisation of resources (cabinet meetings etc) e) be responsible to the Board for the performance of the business consistent with agreed plans, strategies and policies f) Lead the executive team g) ensure that financial results, business strategies and, where appropriate, targets and milestones are communicated to the investment community (the corporate sector, foreign investors???) and finally and very importantly h) establish a close relationship of trust with the Chairman, reporting key developments to him in a timely manner and seeking advice and support as appropriate.

Has the conduct of Sonia and the PM been any different? Is Sonia unnecessarily interfering in the PM’s job of is it her responsibility to supervise ? If the PM had to be pushed to sack the two ministers, does that make him weak and her dominating, or does it just show that two executives can have a difference of opinion? Do all responsibilities have to be assigned to only one person? Cant some of them be shared? Does everyone have to agree with all the above??? Digvijay Singh may think the separation of powers isn’t a good idea. That’s his thinking. In a democracy, everyone has a right to an opinion. It’s a sign of maturity that he can comment on something that his party believes differently in, not an admission of fault.

The real truth is that separation of powers between Sonia and the PM is a reality – one largely taking care of the party organization and the other of the government. But both interact frequently and hold each other in respect and trust. Sonia’s graciousness towards the PM is well documented. And vice versa. All this criticism of the BJP is just a case of sour grapes since it is worried that a Modi may fold everything into one and become a de-facto dictator – of his party and the country….

Delhi Police Commissioner Neeraj Kumar deserves a patient hearing….

He was much maligned when the Dec 16^th gangrape happened even though his force cracked the case within a few days. He was almost accused of abetting rapes and molestation of women in Delhi. His voice was muted; his point of view not considered. In the politicized environment that prevails in Delhi – remember the state elections are later this year and the general elections in May next year – truth doesn’t matter. Government bashing is in. Media is biased. No one in media remembers that their job is to bring out the truth, and nothing but the truth.

In this context, the Indian Express’s interview of Neeraj Kumar showed that good journalism still exists. I think it’s my duty to amplify that interview. So here goes:

On the reality of rapes: “97% rapes take place within the confines of the home. They are opportunistic crimes.” Instead of blaming ourselves, we blame the cops. Crap.

On the manhandling of the protests: “That incident was an aberration; a one off. When did you last hear of a policeman hitting a woman? I don’t want to justify that officer’s conduct. Whatever the provocation, it was unpardonable and unjustifiable to hit a woman. But, if you see the video footage of what happened prior to what happened, you will notice that this girl had spat on the ACP, called him names – very filthy names – and a stage came when he lost his balance and slapped her. It should not have happened. But he was under grave provocation”. Did anyone tell you this? That women were spitting on the cops and calling them names? Did media not know this? Or were they just too much into sensationalism to bother about putting this story out????

On the politics of Delhi: “One challenging circumstance is that we are under tremendous scrutiny, most of all, media scrutiny. Recently there was a rape in Belgaum, a gang rape. The culprits have still not been caught. Where is it in the media? Has anyone asked for the resignation of the SSP or the DIG? There have been a series of rapes in Madhya Pradesh – has anyone clamoured for the resignation of the district police chief? But in Delhi, as soon as something like this happens, its said the Commissioner of Police (CP) must resign”. Why is nothing demanded from the MP CM or DIG of police? Or of Karnataka?

And in something that the PM himself suffers from, the one who is making amends is being punished. The PM brought in transparency in coal by bringing in auctions, and we are asking for his resignation because the earlier opaque system continued for a few more years before auctions came in. The Delhi Police Chief is also being harassed for something similar: “Post the December 16 gangrape, I gave instructions that once a girl or a woman comes to a police station, her complaint will be recorded verbatim, issues of jurisdiction will not be raised. Do you know the result? There has been a more than 158% increase in the number of rape complaints registered. In molestation complaints, the increase has been 600%, in eve teasing cases, 700% - all since January. Now at press conferences, I am told that rapes have increased, the crime is out of control. So I am being beaten with my own stick. I have tried to set a system right, but those statistics are being used against me”.

Of course, just like the central government, no one appreciates the good work done. That as late as FY11, India grew by 9.2%. That we are still amongst the fastest growing countries. No one appreciates the good work: “I am proud to tell you that about 90% cases have been solved. And most of them were solved within the first week”.

Did you know that protestors used iron rods???? And no one in media covered this???? “The second day when it started again, we were in a bind, because the following day the Russian President (Vladimir Putin) was to visit Hyderabad House and Republic Day preparation were on. The protestors were using iron rods to attack policemen. All day long we used water cannons, tear gas shells. But they would not leave. And it began to become dark. So at some time, this unlawful assembly had to be dispersed”. 

Here’s a truth that everyone knows but no one wants to accept. The same thing happened when the two-penny actress Priti Jain complained against noted film Director Madhur Bhandarkar: “If you are in a live-in relationship, the sexual relationship you are having is of a consensual nature. If the man says at some stage that I do not intend to marry you, the woman then says, OK I will register a rape case against you. Then she says she has been raped continuously for three years. A large number of cases fall within this category”.

And this is so true. Media chases sensational stories. No one cares for the happier news: “I have been called her to Idea Exchange because of the controversial incidents that have happened; I wish you had called me when we had cracked the Pune blast cases. The maximum number of Indian Mujahideen modules were busted by the Delhi Police. We solve the Defence Colony bank heist, arrested everybody within no time, but there was no appreciation. The December 16 gangrape was cracked in no time, but there was no mention of the fact that the police had solved it…..If the pentagon were attacked by terrorists in Washington, and the police had cracked the case within 72 hours like the Delhi Police did, what would have happened in the US? The then President Mr Bush would have called the police officers to the White House, felicitated them in public…..We have forgotten to appreciate each other, we do not boost the morale of each others, and that is why we are country we are. You can keep bashing a dead horse, but how much will you bash. And then you expect the police to crack cases?”

The only one statement of his which got some media publicity was: “If my resigning would stop rapes of children, brutalization of women, domestic violence, I will resign a thousand times. This is not a response from a mature society”.

And here’s something that I have often wondered about. How can police standing on the road figure out what happens inside air conditioned buses which have their windows shut? Of course no one wants to be rational: “Stand with me on the route of that bus. Standing there, it is difficult to tell what is happening inside each vehicle. Theoretically, the gangrape was preventable. But none of the accused had a criminal record. And how would the police know that this would happen, that those men intended to pick up a girl at that time? Was there an SOS from the vehicle? Did the cars behind and alongside notice anything amiss inside the bus? The answer is no. Hypothetically, the police should have known, but it is not practical”.

And one last piece: “In the case of the 5 year old girl, the victim used to come down to be with the accused Manoj every day, watching TV in his room. However on the day she went missing, her parents did not even once express any suspicion of him. Had they said anything, the police would have broken the lock to his room. The point is that until the parents do not express suspicions about someone, we cannot go breaking locks”.

The real truth is that a bunch of hoodlums who call themselves protestors has captured Delhi. Today’s Delhi is going the old Kolkata way. There is a protest every alternate week, if not day. Our media is so irresponsible that it projects these hoodlums as heroes. This is something that all of us have to mull over. Where will this take us????

With a year to go, Congress needs a “Miller” act….

I am of course referring to the audacious, totally unexpected, and delightfully dazzling 38 ball hundred that David Miller of King’s XI Punjab made in the IPL match against the much fancied and “sitting pretty” Royal Challengers Bangalore. Not only that, if one were to break down the feat, one would realize that the real punch came in the last 21 balls, in which Miller scored some 75 odd runs. I think the Miller analogy should inspire the Congress. And give it the confidence to “change the game”!

In my opinion – and most people cannot deny this – the Congress was going along smoothly until Apri 2011 when the 1^st Anna fast-farce hit the country (just so that we don’t forget…..we had a 9% GDP growth in the year that ended on March 31, 2011). That was also the time when Indian news TV channels shed the last vestiges of any ideals they had and adopted the “drama” and “crime” format of entertainment, sensationalizing everything to the hilt, giving a “ball-by-ball” commentary as it were of the Anna fast, and morphing overnight into what someone nicely said, “Horror Entertainment Channels”. The April fast was soon followed by the longer August fast-farce (Anna fasting, his followers feasting). A couple of “hit-wickets” later (Manish Tewari’s distasteful description of Anna; the police’s handling or mishandling of the Ramdev and other kerfuffles), the Congress was well and truly on the backfoot. The Congress was also bowled a barrage of bouncers and googlies by the BJP and other opposition parties – by refusing to let Parliament function, insisting on a JPC being formed only to later reject its report and also demanding the PM’s resignation for the 30^th or 35^th time. In the meanwhile, thanks to some brazenly unfair umpiring by the two supposedly “neutral” umpires – the politicized CAG who has made it an art of confusing policy with corruption and the SC who zealously scrapped the 122 2G licenses – the Congress was hit on the head. Now with an impossible target looming – 2014 – the Congress is looking for a Miller.

But before we come to who the Miller can be, it’s worthwhile for the owner and captain of the Congress team – Sonia Gandhi and the PM – to look at the picture from a distance and with a cool mind. The glass is definitely more than half full. The SC may have been harsh on 2G and the Ashwani Kumar episode, but the SC has also delivered a string of less-noticed “happy” decisions. The clearance given to Koodankulam should be a big boost to the PM himself who supported the plant. The over-turning of the Orissa HC decision in the Posco case also gives the central government a chance to do good. Equally, the Gujarat HC’s stinging observation against Modi (today’s TOI) that his government was protecting the guilty police officers in the Ishrat Jahan fake encounter case is a setback for him. Equally, the Calcutta HC has shown its disenchantment with Mamata Banerjee. The courts have shown they are neutral, even if the CAG isn’t!

Then there is the state of the opposing team to gain from as well. The bowling side – the BJP – is clearly tired. No one wants to do the hard job of fielding….but everyone wants to bat (become the PM!). The loss in Karnataka is a body blow, and sharply reduces the chances of the NDA winning the match (2014 – without Karnataka’s strong support, the NDA is nowhere). The BJP is bound to be forced to make a compromise with corrupt Yeddy, further denting its own pseudo position on corruption. The party also recently lost Uttarakhand, thanks to its corrupt CM, Pokhriyal, there. There are charges of corruption against Raman Singh as well. And if we finally get a Lok Ayukta in Gujarat, how much longer before the truth about Gujarat comes out? Then of course there are the internal divisions in the party with a whole battalion of leaders working overtime to undermine Modi, and the internal divisions of the NDA with allies deserting the BJP faster even than the UPA’s allies are deserting it. Make no mistake – the BJP is in complete disarray.

Who can be the Miller in the Congress team? Rahul Gandhi of course. He’s the one who insisted on a “secret voting” in the Karnataka and junked the old way of appointing CMs. This simple move – sans any major publicity a la Modi by the way – has surprised everyone including partymen and media alike and earned him rich praise. The process has led to a “strong” CM, rather than a “pliable” one. The seat allocation in Karnataka also bears Rahul’s clear stamp, as candidates were chosen through an “interview” process, with Madhusudhan Mistry, Rahul’s chosen man, supervising the whole process. A similar exercise has now been started at a national level. The decision to drop Bansal and Kumar were also taken no doubt after consultation with him. The Land Acquisition Amendment bill no doubt is also Rahul’s baby. Rahul’s support for reforms – his addressing a massive lac-plus rally in Delhi – has encouraged Chidambaram and the PM to stay the course of reforms.

The Congress has no reasons to worry. It’s mature handling of foreign affairs – courageously going against the hardline recommendations of the BJP and parts of media – has yielded peace and friendship with China (read today’s TOI) and Pakistan (to the extent possible). Likewise, the speed it showed in first bringing out an ordinance on sexual crimes against women and then backing it up with legislation has been noticed by all. The economy too has turned the corner, with exports on the rise, the rupee gaining against the dollar, international commodity prices (crude in particular) falling, and inflation moderating to below-trend levels prompting the RBI to start reducing rates. The specially created Committee on Infrastructure has started clearing projects stuck for long, with the Ministry of Environment being shown its rightful lower-level place. Chidambaram and Anand Sharma are unstoppable, with both busy with “work as usual”. And before he was sacked, Bansal set the pace for the revival of the Railways. Equally, the bitter bullet of raising fuel prices has been bitten; and the positive effects are already being seen in the form of reducing subsidies. Aadhar is the new magical wand in the government’s hands to cut subsidies; allowing a new Food Security Bill to be brought in. Clearly, the Congress has a lot to fall back on. All that is needed now is great communications. Even if only half as efficient as Modi’s PR, it will do the trick!

The real truth is that a year is a long time in politics. It’s like the last five overs in an IPL match. The fate of a team can change in no time. An underdog can become the big match winner. In the Congress’s case, it has a big hitter in Rahul Gandhi who has just come to the crease. He’s stroked a few balls and scored. He can now start lofting the sixes…..and kicking some political ass as well!

Bring in the Food Security Ordinance….

It’s political season. Almost everything that happens in Delhi today is driven by political considerations. Positions of political parties are based on what they think will help them in 2014; not necessarily on truth or governance. What appears is not what is real….its just a chimera. The BJP’s blocking of Parliament has little to do with the real issues of coal and 2G – that no one wants to discuss; its to do more with stopping the government in its tracks. Stopping it from achieving its agenda. Crippling it before the elections. Leaving it with nothing to crow about when it goes to the people asking for votes. In all this hustle and bustle, the Congress has no option but to play the same game. An ordinance to bring in food security is a must.

Those who argue that the Food Security bill musn’t be passed without adequate discussion in Parliament are being cocky. In reality, they want to block the bill and prevent the Congress from getting an edge. The bill has been around for some time now. It was talked about in the 2009 elections; and was introduced in Parliament in December 2011 – a full 2.5 years before the 15^th Lok Sabha’s tenure came to an end. It’s not an afterthought. It’s not like the BJP claims – that the Congress forgot about it and remembered it at the last moment. It’s not as if its merely an election winning ploy – even though it will surely help the party. The Congress believes in the bill, but is being stopped from getting it passed.

The Parliament has gone through the motions. The Parliamentary Standing Committee has vetted it; and suggested changes. The coverage %s for example have been discussed, increased, decreased and finally agreed upon at 2/3rds the population. The impact of this legislation on the fiscal deficit has been debated and understood; its critics have been heard out. The government’s political strategy of “social inclusiveness” drives the Congress’s motivation in pressing ahead. The BJP’s “urban middle class” focus allows it to play hardball. It’s clearly a political battle. And one that the Congress must fight. If the BJP has no shame in blocking Parliament, why should the Congress have shame in getting it through via an ordinance?

Those of us who are internet savvy, read and write blogs, and argue loudly in TV studios cannot even understand what hunger is. For most of this bunch of chatterati, hunger is just a political topic to beat one party or the other with. But in the meanwhile, even as the debates are going on, more and more people are dying of hunger; more and more are suffering from malnutrition. The BJP and congress can slug it out about who is responsible for this plight; and neither will be able to put the other down. But their jousting should not lead to the misery of the poor continuing even more.

Yes, there are flaws in the bill. It proposes to route the foodgrains through the PDS system – which will lead to leakages. But that cannot be the excuse for not doing anything. The Aadhar backing will hopefully help reduce leakages. Maybe we can convert this subsidy into a cash transfer as well at a later date. Yes, the subsidy bill is very high and will put even more burden on the fiscal deficit. But with fuel subsidies being gradually reduced to a small proportion of what it is today (when diesel becomes fully deregulated in a year or so), there will be room created for the food security subsidy.

Like I said, it’s not like everything is hunky dory with the bill. But then the job of Parliament and political parties is to make it stronger. What can one do if our politicians don’t want to meet and discuss. In any case, its not like they haven’t had their chance. They said what they wanted to say in the standing committee. It’s now time to go ahead.

There is one other reason why the Congress must bring in the ordinance. This is a political stand-off in Parliament. If it’s not the PM’s resignation, it is the Law Minister’s or the Railway Minister’s. If it’s not the setting up of the JPC, its its report. If this gets sorted out, it will be something else. The BJP simply won’t let Parliament function. The Congress must fight this BJP strategy politically. It must teach the BJP a lesson. One way to do that is to bring in the ordinance. And when the ordinance comes up in Parliament for ratification in the monsoon session, the BJP will have no option but to support it. Shekhar Gupta argues exactly this point forcefully, while castigating the BJP for blocking Parliament in his brilliant article in The Indian Express last Saturday. This is the right way to handle a recalcitrant BJP.

Besides, it’s not as if the bill’s flaws cannot be corrected in due course. They can be. Just like the rape ordinance was corrected when it came in for endorsement from Parliament. So there is nothing to worry about really.

The real truth is that the Congress has no option but to respond to the BJP politically. It has to achieve its political agenda. It has to bring in the food security ordinance. So what if the opposition says it needs a debate. If they are serious, let them debate it in Parliament. Or they can have their turn when the ordinance comes up for an endorsement in the monsoon session…..

Congress should sack Ashwani Kumar….focus on core issues….and play on the front foot….

The SC has stung hard. And rightly so. The Minister of Law has been shown to be a buffoon. By his actions, he has brought embarrassment to his party and to the PM, who put him in his job in the first place. More importantly, he has diverted attention from the core issues in the alleged coal scam – where the Congress can put up a strong defence – to matters of propriety – where clearly the Congress has no defence.

Thanks to the SC’s strict words, many  (if not most) ordinary people in the country think the Congress has something to hide. They believe that the Congress has indeed indulged in corruption. That Ashwani Kumar did what he did to shield the PM. And worse, the episode has created the perception (though the Bansal issue shows it’s not true) that the Congress controls and directs the CBI’s investigations. For all of this, Ashwani Kumar needs to be sacked. In politics, “cutting losses” is an important concept; and in Ashwani Kumar’s case that concept needs to be immediately practiced.

In my opinion, while the SC is right in all its observations – that the CBI has become a caged parrot, that it mouths its masters’ voice, that it shouldn’t have shown the draft report to anyone in the Government and also that the Government had interfered with the investigation – it is wrong in stating that “the heart of the report has been changed”. If this is true, then it should have explained how so. The deletions made looked minor indeed; and they certainly didn’t appear to have changed “the direction of the probe”. The SC owes it to the people to explain how the direction of the probe has changed if it has. Has anyone been spared? Has anyone been wrongly accused? Have any charges been dropped? I think the SC has acted emotionally here.

The SC had made a similar emotional decision in the 2G case when it arbitrarily canceled 122 licenses, jeopardizing tens of thousands of crores of telecom investments, depressing the overall investment climate in the country, and contributing to many many thousands of job lossess. Not all of those 122 licenses were wrongly won. What wrong had MTS done for instance? It followed the rules laid down by the Government, and brought in investments in good faith. It didn’t bribe anyone, nor did it jump any queue. But the SC decided that the policy of administered allocations – followed for several years before Raja – was wrong and EVERYONE including MTS must suffer. This is an emotional response, not expected of the highest court of the land.

The Congress, by sacking Ashwani Kumar (and Pawan Bansal as I have stated earlier) must start the process of correcting its course. It has to bring the focus back on the core issue in the coal scam. Was the PM – the one who first thought of auctions, was held back because of legal infirmities and opposition from the BJP and other parties, and who finally succeeded in doing so a few years later – guilty of anything? Was he a villain, who launched the opaque screening committee system, or a hero who dismantled it? Is the PM known to be someone who makes policies that favor crony capitalism or as someone who dismantles it (prior to his 1991 reforms, neither Sunil Mittal nor Narayanmoorthy nor Kiran Mazumdar Shaw nor Kishore Biyani even existed; business was all dominated by the Tatas, Birlas and Ambanis)? By letting Ashwani Kumar interfere, the Congress has suffered. Not surprising then that Sonia Gandhi wants Ashwani Kumar out. Apparently the PM is resisting. Someone needs to teach the PM the lesson that in politics, its important to sacrifice small turf battles temporarily to win large battles permanently. In politics, the eye must ALWAYS be on the larger picture.

The Congress has made a fundamental mistake on both coal and 2G. In both cases, it chose not to attack. In 2G, when Kapil Sibal said “zero loss”, the party developed cold feet. Sibal was right. The Government had consciously chosen to continue with administered allocations of spectrum at cheap prices. The Rs 1.76 lac crore (the highly imaginative number concocted by a politicized CAG) was not a loss to the exchequer; it was a corruption-free way for subsidies to be passed on to the aam aadmi in the form of lower prices. Yes, there was corruption, but it was at the local level and the CBI should have brought that out clearly. The CAG had no business to comment on policy; the SC’s cancellation of licenses should have been challenged. But the Congress chose to be defensive; it fell into the BJP trap and got embroiled in petty matters – whether a JPC should be set up or not (which incidentally was a silly BJP demand, considering that the JPC Chairman would be a Congress MP), whether the PM and Chidambaram knew of the policy or not (of course they knew), whether Raja briefed them or not (of course he did), and whether Raja, Chidambaram and the PM should depose before the JPC/PAC or not (they should have confidently). It fought on the backfoot, creating the impression of a scam. It should have fought on the front foot, owning its decisions, and made a huge political statement in the process – that the party stands for the aam aadmi, inclusive growth, etc and that it would repeat the cheap spectrum policy if it had a chance. The party would have been right, as subsequent auctions have been a failure, and have put the telecom industry into a downward spiral.

Likewise in coal, the Congress should be on the offensive. It should expose the NDA’s double-speak – continuing with the screening committee system, opposing auctions, indulging in local corruption. It should highlight the role of the PM in changing this opaque policy to a transparent one. It should fight on the front foot; not be on the back foot thanks to bafoons like Ashwani Kumar.

The real truth is that both Ashwani Kumar and Pawan Bansal need to go. The Congress is a far better party, with far better leadership and policies, than these two members are making people think. The party has just trounced the BJP in Karnataka, exposing that it is no one to talk of corruption. The Congress has to be on the front foot….believe in itself….and communicate far far better. It should learn from Narendra Modi – whose spin doctors have floated stories today that the Karnataka defeat will actually trigger a demand for him to be anointed his party’s PM candidate. In a democracy, a party needs to be able to turn its deficiencies into its strengths…….the Congress woefully lacks those skills.