An all out win for Congress in Karnataka….

The people in Karnataka have voted. And they have shown just how disgruntled they were with the BJP. The ruling party lost as was expected. Nothing surprising about that. What is however surprising is the scale of the defeat. The party has lost nearly 65% of its seats. In all likelihood, it has been relegated to the number 3 position, behind even the JD(S). Even if it does manage to go past the JD(S) as the last votes are counted, it will just barely do so. It has lost in all the regions of the state. This kind of a whitewash is rare; and it indicates just how fed up the people were with the party.

The Congress was always expected to win. Even the post-poll forecasts indicated that (though I am not a big believer in such dip-stick forecasts). But in spite of all this, I am sure the Congress must have been a little worried about what would happen. The overhang of the crisis in Delhi, the charges of corruption – all must have made the party nervous. In fact, throughout the entire vote counting process – which started at 8 am today – the party’s prospects looked far worse than what the eventual outcome was. Clearly, the party must now be relieved!

What is interesting is the way Bangalore city behaved. Through the counting process, the Congress was shown to be losing a couple of seats over its previous tally. If that had happened, it would have given the BJP some talking points – that all the scams in Delhi had effect on voting in the urban areas. Unfortunately for the BJP, that didn’t happen. The Congress picked up 3 additional seats in the city, while the BJP lost half its seats (8). So clearly, the disgruntlement with the BJP’s local corruption was far higher than that of the Congress in faraway Delhi!

The fact that the results have come exactly as predicted also shows how savvy Narendra Modi is. He refused to canvass in the state. I wrote on this matter earlier (April 26^th - Why is Modi keeping away from Karnataka????). The same came up for discussion today on TV, and the BJP’s discomfort on the subject was apparent. Apparently Modi was “pre-occupied” with other things! We know that if Modi is pre-occupied with anything, it is with his PM ambitions! How could he not have found time for the BJP’s only Southern bastion? The truth is what I have maintained, and that is what the Congress spokesperson brought out – that Modi doesn’t have the courage to take on the tough challenges. He knew Karnataka was going to be tough, and he chose to stay away. I cannot imagine how the captain of the ship can stay away from an impending disaster? How can he just walk away???? Contrast this with Rahul Gandhi, who took on campaigning responsibilities in UP and Bihar, two states in which the Congress hasn’t done well for at least 2 decades. He lost in Bihar, and he took it on his chin. He did very well in the UP Lok Sabha elections in 2009 (winning 22 Lok Sabha seats, which no one expected that). And though he failed in the UP assembly elections, he managed to improve his party’s tally. The important point is that Rahul Gandhi did not run away from a tough challenge. In fact, he jumped right into it. If anything, he stayed away from Karnataka – leaving the fruits of success to his local team members!

Anyways, the good news for the state is that a single party has got the mandate to rule. Through the vote counting period, it looked like the Congress would manage only 100 seats or so and if that would have happened, it would have had to depend on the JD(S) or the independents. That would have been really bad for the state. But now that the problem has vanished, the ball is squarely in the Congress’s court. It has to give a good government, dismantle the corruption set-up the BJP created, and bring glory back to the state and its capital Bangalore, which is a short code for India’s IT might.

The other good news is that the people have preferred to vote for the Congress and not that much for the JD(S). We need a bigger role for the national parties and had the JD(S) done better than the Congress, it would have sent the wrong message. Even in terms of vote swings, it looks like the Congress has got a higher swing in its favor (+7%) than the JD(S) (+4%) (based on 117 seats, as per NDTV). The BJP of course has been decimated, losing 15% of the state’s votes.

One last point. It looks like the voters were upset with the corruption of the BJP. But it was also upset with the upping of the Hindutva levels in the state. The memories of the Ram Sene (an outfit sympathetic to the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and the Bajrang Dal) attacking girls in pubs and demonizing Hussain’s paintings are all too vivid. This is why Hindutva doesn’t work for long. The people of the country don’t want anyone to play moral police. They are happy in being Hindus…..but they are also progressive…..and they want to live in peace with others. That is the loud message from Karnataka to the BJP.

The real truth is that even though Karnataka has voted along predicted lines, and the BJP has got mauled, the scale of the mauling is what is surprising. The party was expected to get 50 seats….it looks like it will get just 39 or so. This should make the party think – clearly its attacks on the Congress are not helping it…..

Hardly anything in CBI affidavit to warrant anyone’s resignation….

So the CBI has declared that 3 deletions and 1 addition was made in its draft report on Coalgate. The opposition seems to have won a “tactical” victory, but is behaving as if someone has been pronounced guilty! Why tactical? Because it has been claimed by the CBI that the Law Minister, the AG and the ASG all lied – the latter two in the SC, the first one in media. But the issue we need to focus on is whether the changes suggested/made are substantial. The CBI has said they are not. No accused has been let off. No names have been deleted. The tenor of the report has not been changed. Nothing was diluted. So why should anyone resign????

Where is there any “interference” in the investigations as is being alleged by the BJP? In fact, Mohan Parasaran, the Solicitor General has clearly stated in ET that “As far as the PM is concerned (his stance is) if anyone body has committed any wrong law will take its own course. And that we should fully cooperate with the court and that he (has affirmed) the basic principle that we should never interfere with the investigation”.  He adds: “PM is saying that the government's credibility should completely be safeguarded and restored. We are not here to shield people. We will fully cooperate with court in placing all the facts so it will be good for posterity as well”. Does the PM look guilty of anything?

But let’s return to the changes made in the CBI draft report. The deletions made were as under (taken from TOI):

1) A tentative finding in the PE2 status report (dealing with 2006 to 2009 allocations) about non-existence of a system of allocating specific weightages or points (for deciding who gets coal blocks) was “deleted at the instance of the officials of PMO and coal ministry”
2) Another tentative finding in the same paragraph about non-preparation of “broadsheets” (presumably spreadsheets) or charts by the screening committee “to the best of our recollection” was deleted by the law minister
3) A change was made to the PE4 status report (dealing with 1993 to 2005 allocations) at the instance of PMO and coal ministry officials to incorporate the fact of “non-existence of approved guidelines” for allocating coal blocks

The italics have been added by me. Nothing has been deleted I promise (lest I be accused of adding and deleting too!). Now just look at the first two points. Remember that the system followed between 2006-9 was the same one that existed since 1993. The UPA did not start it. So if “the system of allocating specific weightages or points (for deciding who gets coal blocks)” did not exist between 2006-9, it did not exist in the prior years also. Ditto for “non preparation of broadsheets or charts by the screening committee”. Understanding this is crucial because it is being claimed that all this happened only during 2006-9. If the above statements are true, then all governments since 1993 are guilty. And this includes the BJP for six long years.

Point 3 above directly relates to the 1993-2005 period – and again is in line with my observation about the 1^st two points.

What’s clear is that the system had weaknesses – from 1993 to 2005. It is this weak system that the PM wanted to change by changing over to auctions. What happened to his effort? Everyone conspired – most notably the CMs from the opposition ruled states of WB (Left), Orissa (BJD), Chhatisgarh (BJP), Jharkhand (BJP/JMM/Independent), Rajasthan (then ruled by the BJP) – to kill auctions (Read TK Arun in ET of 3^rd May). It was a collective decision of the Congress and opposition to let the old flawed system continue till auctions could be introduced. This should be the central point of the CBI and SC inquiry…..not that a few people lied (though I am not condoning that).

The BJP was earlier demanding that the PM quit for his “involvement” in the coal scam. Suddenly that no longer seems to be their demand. They now want the Minister of Law to resign. What happened? Is it that the BJP realizes there is nothing critical in the CBI’s preliminary findings about the role of the PM? Is it that that they realize that whatever critical findings have been made cover the six years of NDA rule as well?

But how does it matter that the BJP demands the PM’s resignation or someone else’s? It’s not as if it will let Parliament function. That’s why I keep saying – the BJP’s objective is to stop legislative business. Everything else is just an excuse. If not the PM, then the two ministers. If not the two ministers, then the bureaucrats. If not coal, then 2G. If not this, then that. The objective is clear. The methods keep changing. In this context, read Shekhar Gupta in the Indian Express of 4^th May.

It’s important to stay focused on the core issues and not get distrated by the tiny blots. The country wants to know if the Congress government worked at bringing in more transparency or removing it in the coal allocation process. To get to that, the following questions must be answered:

1)    Who thought of auctions? (Answer: the PM in 2004)

2)    Had the BJP not thought of auctions when they ruled? (Answer: no. They were happy to let the flawed screening committee do the allocations. If this system was wrong, the BJP is as involved in the scam as anyone else).

3)    Why were auctions not implemented immediately in 2004? (Answer: Official reason: Because some laws had to be changed to allow auctions. Real reason: no one, including the BJP, wanted a transparent system)

4)    What role did the opposition play in this? (Answer: all of them – the Left, BJD, BJP – opposed auctions in writing).

Now ask yourself: Does this show the PM or the Congress to be part of the scam? Or to be the ones who tried to stop the scam that had been going on since 1993?

The real truth is that the core issue: whether the PM is guilty or not – is the one that we should focus on. The rest is temporary froth, which excites the opposition, but which doesn’t add to the discussion. What is clear is that the PM and the Congress tried to improve a flawed system. They tried to bring in auctions. They dismantled the weak system that existed before them. How can they be called guilty???? Why should anyone – leave alone the PM – resign????

Soft India pushes China back….will the hardliners now eat crow????

Mahatma Gandhi once said “I object to violence because when it appears to do good, the good is only temporary; the evil it does is permanent." Today, those who like to don the Gandhi cap and chant his mantras, but have otherwise butchered his ideology, have forgotten this. Fortunately, the Government of the day didn’t. If it had, we would have been starting a war with China. Or at least looking at a long drawn energy sapping conflict which would have distrated us from our goals. Fortunately, wiser counsel prevailed.

In the BJP’s worldview, it’s infinitely more glamorous to been seen as “doing something” or taking “some action”, rather than just “talking” to the enemy. It would show that India’s foreign policy is “strong”. Talking is what the weak do. If nothing, even just punching fists in the air will do. Action denotes intent after all, even if that action may achieve nothing, or worse, may actually cause bodily harm. The other option is to argue noisily and hope that the cacophony scares away the opponent. At least that’s what our TV anchors seem to think. Of course, we must appreciate that all of them – especially the one who runs Scam TV (the channel which has built its entire positioning on imagined scams) – are experts in foreign policy. No, actually they are experts in everything. It’s India’s loss that these dynamic and dashing sons and daughters work in TV studios rather than in Government. Had it been otherwise, India would have been growing at double the clip, and by now, would have reclaimed PoK and Aksai Chin. Arguing endlessly and noisily over TV is seen as brave and courageous, and counts as “doing something”. If only the usual dramatis personae of TV remembered that only “Empty vessels make noise”, they would understand exactly what we viewers think of them. It’s not the Chinese who ran away from the cacophony on TV; it’s the viewers. Maybe our opposition leaders and TV anchors should remember Abraham Lincoln instead: “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.”

The right phrase of course is different. Deep waters run still. Soft influence is way better than aggro hardtalk. Hardline is over-rated. But then why blame those who never understood Gandhi. Why, didn’t they even say that Gandhi deserved to die because he was too soft on the Muslims? “The accumulating provocation of thirty-two years, culminating in his last pro-Muslim fast, at last goaded me to the conclusion that the existence of Gandhi should be brought to an end immediately.” is what Nathuram Godse said in his justification of killing Gandhi. Which party did he belong to? The RSS. What should one expect from such people and their descendents? To apologize and promise to learn Gandhi’s ideals? Or to continue demanding an eye for an eye even if in the process, we lose both our eyes, and maybe get a bloody nose as well? A party’s fundamental character cannot be corrected by one great figure – even if he is the Father of our Nation.

India pushed the Chinese back. Through “soft” Gandhian diplomacy. While never allowing jingoism to get the better of it. The Government stood its course. There were five flag meetings held. There was also a little smart local maneuver conducted – with India occupying some Chinese territory in a retaliatory, tactical ploy. You didn’t know about that? I didn’t either. Because publicizing that would upset the picture that had been so assiduously created: That India’s government was a coward. India’s government was anything but. It was savvy. It applied the right amount of pressure, and at the right points, and it never gave up dialoguing. One saw that soft pressure when the PM decided to stay back a day longer in Japan. That soft gesture rattled the Chinese. That made them realize that India wasn’t alone. That they could take on one Japan backed by a faraway US but not two close-by dadas? See….soft diplomacy worked better than the angry growl of a mongrel would have. What a masterstroke.

Will any lessons be learnt from this? Or will the obdurate BJP and even worse TV anchors simply move on to the next babbling brook? If one looks at the stuff that they have put out over the last two years, one realizes how much of a babbling brook they have been. Just froth, no substance. They intentionally misrepresented the 2G facts, calling a Government subsidy of spectrum a case of corruption. They intentionally misled the nation by calling the man who thought of, designed and executed coal auctions as to be the one who was corrupt. They shamed India just when it was getting ready to tell the world it had arrived by staging the CWG games….by making small cases of corruption look like a zillion-dollar mother. But then why should they care? All this may win them political power. That’s all that matters. Why, they cant even wait for their turn. They want to stop this government in its tracks. Paralyse it. Disallow it its legislative agenda. So what if the country watches aghast, wanting growth more than imaginary corruption numbers. It has no choice. It has to tolerate its deviant sons.

They may not remember Gandhi. Maybe Churchill is better? “If the human race wishes to have a prolonged and indefinite period of material prosperity, they have only got to behave in a peaceful and helpful way toward one another." But then, prosperity is something they don’t understand. During their six years of rule, GDP growth dipped from some 6.5% in the previous six to 5.5% under them. As soon as they left, irrepressible growth sprung back to 8.5%. And yet, they accuse this government of not delivering on growth? Yet, their PM aspirant who simply cannot wait for his turn, pretends as if he is the only one who understands growth? It would help if he first got a little education in economics, but then that’s another thing that empty vessels aren’t exactly know for.

The real truth is that like always India’s soft power won the day. Salman Khursheed was right. It was nothing but acne after all. The PM was right too. It was just a localized skirmish – the bosses in Beijing prefer hosting Khursheed and sending their new Premier Li Keqiang on his first international trip to India instead. Too bad for the BJP, and for our TV anchors. The story has to end. But then, there’s always another one to move on to. After all, we cannot expect a dog’s tail to ever become straight….

First corruption case that looks plausible ….Bansal must quit

It’s not closed yet, and we must resist the temptation to pass judgment on the Pawan Bansal corruption case so soon. But from what one reads in the papers, this looks like the type of case that somehow looks genuine. There is something in this case that makes it feel real. It’s different from all the rubbish that has been going around in the last two years – 2G, coal and even CWG. Here’s why:

Firstly, the alleged scam amount looks real. Rs 10 crores is the kind of money one would expect to be exchanged in return for the job of a Board member of the Indian Railways. When the figure of Rs 90 lacs came out, I went “Ohh, that’s impossible. That job is worth more”, but when it was clarified that maybe that’s just the advance, I said “That must be true”. Rs 10 crores is the kind of figure that one believes a minister would be tempted by – enough to (part) fund his next election; and not so much as to cause a major uproar (unless detected). In fact, I would be willing to go so far as to say that almost all ministers in all governments all over the country make this kind of money. How else do they fund their elections? Money doesn’t go on tress after all!

Secondly, the key role of the Minister in clearing appointments to the Board makes it nearly impossible for Bansal to have been kept in the dark. The appointment is finally made by the Minister himself. Further, given the general perception that some posts attract huge bribes (like in excise, customs etc), how is it possible that the Minister was not alert to it? We don’t know what the truth is, but it just looks implausible.

Thirdly, this nephew of Bansal’s was in fact managing his political affairs in Chandigarh. He was not “merely” a relative (I am very wary of drawing mere relatives into political debates). The nephew was part of the core team of the minister. So its not that easy for Bansal to junk him at this stage.

The Congress would do well to ask Bansal to step down, pending an enquiry. In doing so, the party could try to make the point that it acts whenever it sees a charge that looks genuine. Most charges of corruption made by the BJP and others are meaningless. Most are political. Even the one making the charge knows that it cannot be true. But the charge is made nonetheless, because the average person on the street thinks “even if not so much, there must have been quite a lot still made”. It is this must have been that opposition banks on.

In most cases, the only way to reach astronomical figures is to mix up policy with corruption. Take 2G as an example. It is alleged that the government lost, and importantly, by inference (and this is the whole point) the Congress made, Rs 1.76 lac crores. Now firstly, I think it is well beyond the intellectual capacity of any politician to think this big. If he did, he would be a visionary! Secondly, if the Congress did indeed get this money in its hands, it begs the question: “who paid”? It could have been the incumbent telcos, to profiteer from cheap spectrum, but then they should have reported high profit margins. They haven’t. Even otherwise, incumbents would pay to keep new players out, not to welcome them in! If the contention is that the new entrants paid, then my only response is “pleeeaaassseee”; none of them has the capacity to pay that much. In reality, no one paid, and no one made any money. The state’s loss (notional remember!) was the public’s gain in the form of cheap rates. It’s the same with diesel and kerosene pricing. The state’s loss is the public’s gain. It’s call subsidy, not scam! And lastly, if the Congress did make so much money, no force on Earth can prevent it from forming the next government! The party would simply buy out everything and everybody. It would buy out Sushma Swaraj, Advani, Jaitley and Modi, all put together, many times over. And if you thought they were saints and not for sale, remember the “loot” in Karnataka, the “crorepati babus” in MP, the “no Lokayukta at whatever cost” efforts in Gujarat….!

It’s the same story with Coalgate. Even more so. Here was a PM who conceived the idea of auctions; but failed to convince anyone, including opposition parties, to support it. So the old policy of administered allocations, followed since 1993, continued beyond 2004. Finally, the same PM managed to introduce auctions. And the BJP alleges that this PM is corrupt? Read TK Arun’s well written article “Hypocricy of blaming PM” in ET last Friday. Was there corruption in the screening committee? Of course there was! That’s why 11 chargesheets have been filed by the CBI, which not surprisingly, covers members of all political parties.

Likewise CWG. How it became a Rs 70000 crore scam, I still don’t understand. Even if you add up the spanking new airport (where no scam has been alleged till date), the metro (ditto), the brand new roads (ditto), the games village (ditto), the infrastructure facilities (ditto), it won’t add up to that figure. Besides, even Kalmadi’s “baap” (in reference to a popular Hindi saying!) wouldn’t have the guts to think so big. Yes, Kalmadi may be corrupt (not proven yet)…..but the only charge against him is some TSR contract worth Rs 90 crores or so, in which he (and the entire paraphernalia of babus and opposition leaders) must have made Rs 10-20 crores. There….the same number crops up again! Somehow, a Rs 10-20 crore scam looks feasible; beyond that, impossible. A whole bunch of such scams looks feasible; but one mother-of-all impossible.

By conceding on Bansal, the Congress will achieve two things. One that it acts when cases look genuine (even before they are finally settled). Second, by portraying the BJP to be a party that cries wolf all too often. If played well, Bansal’s sacrifice can be made to make the BJP look unreasonable. If it’s a game of chess, it is good to take a few small losses, but win the larger game! Besides, its not as if Bansal started this game. It pre-dates him by a long mile. Every past minister – including those of the NDA – has played the same game.

One last point. So is the CBI independent????! How/why did it act against a central minister????! But we’ll leave this for another day!

 

The real truth is that for once the charges against a Congress minister look plausible. We don’t know the truth yet. But even the mere plausibility should be enough to step down. This is not the same as political scams like 2G, Coalgate and CWG (there will be more in the future – including indeed in an NDA regime if one were formed). Bansal’s scam looks genuine. Like did Kripashankar’s disproportionate assets case in Mumbai a year back…..back then also, I had argued for him to be sacked…..

Pathetic – Pakistani prisoner dying in Indian jail

Exactly what should not have happened has happened. Even worse than jingoism is stooping to the level of a pesky criminal and emulating his actions. That’s exactly what seems to have happened when a Pakistani prisoner was attacked in a Jammu jail yesterday – clearly in retaliation against the fate meted out by Pakistani prisoners to Sarabjit recently. This kind of barbaric retaliation doesn’t do any good for India’s image; besides, it goes against the very definition of Gandhi’s India – one of forbearance against retaliation.

Suddenly the shoe is on the other foot. Suddenly all the shrill questions we were asking the Pakistanis will now be asked of us. Suddenly the word “lawless” will apply to India as much as it does to Pakistan. Unfortunately, we have gone down to the level of our wayward neighbor; surrendered our moral high-ground. This post is not written to schmooze or defend Pakistan. That country remains our perennial enemy and must be dealt with in a variety of ways to contain it. This post is written from an Indian point of view – from a sense of anguish that India will again be bracketed with the likes of its neighbors.

So lets see what questions we asked Pakistan over the last few days. These same questions the Pakistanis will now pose to us: How did Sanaullah’s fellow prisoner have weapons on him? Surely that indicates a Indian conspiracy of retaliation? What were the jail authorities doing when all this happened? Why did they not heed the advice given by the Indian government that such an attack could take place against Pakistani prisoners? The Pakistani government will demand that India return the prisoner to it. Or takes him to a third country for treatment, hinting that our medical facilities are sub-Saharan (and hurting our pride of being a preferred destination for medical tourism). They will demand that we first suspend and then punish prison authorities who allowed all this to happen “right under their noses”.

We deserve none of this. In global politics, India stands out as being an island of justice and fair play, surrounded by belligerent, don’t-care-for-human-rights regimes whether it is Sri Lanka or Pakistan or China. Even in American TV shows, India is shown as a fast growing economic miracle while Pakistan is shown as a terrorist hub. Watch Homeland and you will realize how a CIA boss is shown married to an Indian woman (a driven professional, one who sacrifices her personal life to chase her goals) and a Mumbai based call center is featured. In contrast, an Arab is put under suspicion merely because of his frequent travels to Karachi. This kind of portrayal is not limited to this one show. It’s a stereotype that has developed since 9/11. India’s own foreign policy (which right wingers – most notably the BJP – will never understand) of “de-hyphenating” itself from Pakistan was implemented flawlessly in the last decade. The US embraced India, welcoming it to the nuclear club; in fact, pushing its candidacy through very difficult and obdurate Europeans. When Pakistan demanded the same status, it was show the middle finger.

India forced the US leaders not to mix their India trips with hop overs in Pakistan. The PMs and Presidents of all the 5 nuclear nations – US, UK, France, China and Russia – came visiting India last year to build their relationships with India. None visited Pakistan. This attack – this behaving like them – has made India look like we are no different from them. The only difference is that we have a democracy and they have a military-backed or military-controlled government (read Dilip Padgaonkar’s editorial in TOI today – Dealing with a cussed Pakistan).

So I am not being a Pakistani apologist here. I don’t think that this Pakistani prisoner deserved any sympathy from us. I don’t think he was innocent like Sarabjit was. I don’t think the Pakistanis are anything but cruel and inhuman. But the prisoner deserved safety in our jail. It unnecessarily forces India to surrender its moral high-ground. It unnecessarily equates India with Pakistan. And it unnecessarily re-hyphenates India with Pakistan.

In any case, media frenzy around events is starting to drive the Government’s response these days. Salman Khursheed is reportedly canceling his trip to China, as if that will solve the problem. He is clearly catering to the BJP’s demand that he do so. Will the Indian government’s response to this prisoner attack be a weak one or will it be exemplary? In the past, the Government has been seen as being fair even to the worst criminals – Kasab was given full legal representation and access to the Indian justice system, and not rushed into execution. In the developed world, that earned us accolades, even though many right-wingers in India saw it as a sign of the Congress’s “softness”. I am worried that a harried Indian government, in an election year, will be forced to take a hardline stance that lowers our standing, when it should be doing the exact opposite.

I can also imagine a hardline BJP giving a silly “This is bound to happen” kind of statement, like it gave after pulling down the Babri Masjid (remember the “it was a popular movement” line?). I can also imagine hardliners like Modi making it a campaign point. An eye for an eye should be India’s approach, Gandhi be damned, is what he will say. I can imagine a lot of people – with right-wing leanings no doubt – speaking in defence of what an ex-Army man did to the Pakistani prisoner, even calling him a hero. Pathetic.

The real truth is that we have been shamed by this murder inside our jail. We are now just as guilty of cruelty as we accuse Pakistan to be. That self-destructive, wretched nation deserved no space to play; now we have given them that space. It’s another sad day for the country…..just as yesterday was when Sarabjit died.

India’s foreign policy is not soft. It’s “soft power”….

In the vicious political environment that exists in India today, every incident – no matter how tragic – is quickly converted to a political issue. Even as Sarabjit Singh died yesterday, the BJP was out calling our foreign policy “soft”. Begs me to ask: What would the BJP have done differently if it was ruling? Attacked Pakistan? Is that going to be the BJP’s foreign policy if it comes to power? Do they even understand what foreign policy means? All of Vajpayee’s extensive foreign trips in the 1970s  have yielded them this understanding???? For this dimwittedness alone, the BJP should never come to power.

The BJP has the habit of raising the pitch sky high. On every issue, but most notably on foreign policy issues, where it appears to prefer a “hardline” approach. If one were to follow its advice, India should attack China and Pakistan both. And while we are at it, let’s also show Sri Lanka and Bangladesh also how tough we can be. And if we haven’t attacked them yet, it shows we (sorry, Congressmen) are cowards. For a street bully (or ruffian) that the BJP wants India to be, attacking is the only way to demonstrate power. Beat up the guy next door, even if it means getting a bloody nose yourself in the process too. That’s a sign of “bravery” and “courage”. But the BJP forgets that even the street dog knows which fight to pick. It never fights a Rottweiler. And if someone calls it a coward for this, so be it. Lest we forget, China is a Rottweiler. Even the US and Japan acknowledge that. Japan and China have been sparring over the Senkaku islands in the East China Sea. Japan is seeking to establish a “hotline” with China to “discuss” things out. It is even seeking help from Mongolia. It has the US backing too. But Japan hasn’t attacked China. Does that make Japan a “coward”????

And yet, the defining characteristic of the BJP is not its hardline on foreign policy. It’s its doublespeak. When the BJP ruled, it did NOTHING to demonstrate its preference for a muscular foreign policy. In fact, quite the opposite. It was Vajpayee who cuddled up to Musharraf, even as he came to India and insulted us. It was under the same BJP regime that Afzal Guru attacked the Indian Parliament, and save for more high pitched statements, the BJP did nothing to show him the gallows. And worse, as evidence of the party’s muscular foreign policy and it’s “bravery”, they released known top-deck Pakistani terrorists in exchange for a hijacked plane. That time, they called it a “sympathetic” move to save the hostages. Today, they would call it “softness” or “cowardice” if the Congress did the same thing. Today, they say India should have a “no negotiations” policy with terrorists, like Israel has. Yet when they come to power, they will forget all about it. The BJP is nothing but double-speak; so its politicization of the Sarabjit death is understandable.

But here’s the other point. We Indians are behaving as if this is the first case of an Indian death on Pakistani soil. Let’s be clear here. Pakistan is a sworn enemy of India. It’s hand in Kashmir is well known. Any peace overtures we make are with the full knowledge that they may not work. And yet, there is no other way to handle a neighbour like Pakistan; one that will surely self-destruct one day. India does what it does because that’s the best – in fact, the only – way to protect itself. Attacking Pakistan is neither feasible, nor smart. It’s plain naivete to think India can attack Pakistan and subdue it. It smacks of ignorance. It may help the BJP politically, but it will hurt India by dragging it into an avoidable conflict. It will cost us billions, and will slow our economic growth down for decades. Worse, it may bring the international focus back on Kashmir, something that India’s “soft” foreign policy has so smartly avoided so far.

At this point I know what the BJP apologists will say. We’re not talking of going to war to Pakistan. But there is a way to teach them a lesson. Oh really? Please enlighten me. You didn’t when you were in power.

The only way for any country to exert power is through soft power. As a country’s economic clout grows, so does it influence in the world. We have got where we have because our economy has become a force to reckon with. The US didn’t welcome us into the nuclear club because they suddenly fell in love with us. They did it for their own self interest. Yet, how did we return the favor. By not giving them any nuclear plants to build (whatever the reason). By not giving them defence contracts so we could prove to ourselves that we are “independent” and not  under the influence of the US. It’s building relationships that matters in foreign policy. India needs to woo the US. That’s the only way it can counter both Pakistan and China. But will we do that? The same BJP will say “we’ve sold our soul to the US”. Why talk only of the US? We have messed up our relationship with Italy and the EU now. Forget getting support from them if we ever get jammed.

And then we have the likes of Mamata Banerjee who also want to have a hand in foreign policy. Had she not torpedoed the Teesta water deal, we would have forged a stronger relationship with Bangladesh. But she had her parochial Bengal politics to think about. Today, as we talk of “exchanging enclaves” with Bangladesh, the BJP finds it unacceptable. You want to know why? Because India will be giving away a little more that it will be getting in return. Such small thinking is making Bangladesh move away from India. Their politicians are saying “It doesn’t help to be a friend with India”. One day, they will welcome China into their country. That day, the BJP (which will forever remain in opposition, if it continues like this) will lecture us about “India doesn’t have clout with Bangladesh”. But hello….how does India get clout over Bangladesh? By attacking it? Or by being like the “generous big brother”, and behaving like one?

It’s the same with Sri Lanka where Jayalalitha decided that she was the savior of all Tamilians, no matter what their nationality. And now that our relations with that country are messed up, why not blame that on the Congress too? Honestly, if the Congress should get tough, it should be with those inside India; not outside.

And is the BJP any different? Just look at the irony. The man who is responsible (directly or indirectly) for the “extra judicial” massacre of thousands in Gujarat makes a statement accusing Pakistan of having carried out extra-judicial killing! If this is not a case of the pot calling the kettle black, what is?

Let’s not beat around the bush. Foreign policy cannot be practiced as it is being right now. We cannot have state governments playing local politics one day, then blaming the Center when relations sour. We cannot have our media playing up jingoism, then demanding why India doesn’t have friends in the neighborhood. Foreign policy should be left to the experts, and kept completely out of the public domain. And most importantly, there is no place for extremism or false bravado in foreign policy. Understanding global relationships as they exist between nations is a complex task. Its not for us naïve locals to think about.

The real truth is that thanks to vicious internal politics, India’s long standing foreign policy is being questioned. A foreign policy built on “soft power” is being called “soft”. A demand for a more muscular policy is being made. At this rate, we may soon have a war on our hands. Maybe with China, who everyone dreads, including the US and Japan. But the BJP’s deep-seated inferiority complex may push India towards a war. But why should the party care? It is only interested in winning power in 2014. After that, it can go back to releasing terrorists and entertaining dictators all over again….

Sack Attorney General now and Law Minister next week if indicted….but please don’t mix issues

The Supreme Court’s caustic comments against the Government call for some serious action. What the court has clearly established is that there was perjury committed. On the face of it, the perjury was committed by the ASG Harin Raval, and he has already quit. But what the ASG has said is equally important. Going by his letter (which the SC may want to check), the AG is guilty of perjury as well. If that’s established, he should quit or be sacked as well. However, let’s not mix issues here. There is no comment on Ashwani Kumar directly. Nor on the policy of administered allocations. Nor on any cases of corruption. The BJP is exulting as if the order was about all this!

As usual, the hullaballoo in the media today about the SC’s comments is misplaced. The SC has not indicted Ashwani Kumar. It has actually indicted the CBI for following the instructions of imagined, unauthorized bosses. Clearly after the Vineet Narain judgement delivered by the SC 15 years back, the CBI should have known that if at all (and really there was no reason here), it could have shared the report with its boss, the DoPT. But under no circumstances could it have done so with the Minister of Law. The CBI is clearly on thin ice here. The slap on its wrists could turn into a full blown demand for the resignation of the CBI Director as well, if the SC opines that he knowingly failed to fulfil this obligation. For now, that’s not the case, but I am sure more will emerge on this front in the days to come.

Like mentioned earlier, Ashwani Kumar has so far not been directly brought into the line of the SC’s fire. He was clearly out of line, but his defence can be that even if he was, the CBI could have resisted sharing the report. After all, nothing can stop anyone from making an illegal demand, but that by itself cannot be construed as being a  crime.

However, things could change dramatically next week when the CBI Director responds on what specific changes were made by Ashwani Kumar and the two bureaucrats from the PMO and the coal ministry. If there has been a material change in the CBI’s report, then all hell will break loose and Ashwani Kumar will have to rightfully go. But if the changes were minor ones, the developments will depend on what the SC feels about them. If it remains caustic, Ashwani Kumar will have to go. But if its lenient, then Ashwani Kumar may well get away with a light slap on his wrists.

The media hullaballoo is also wrong for one other reason. The SC has not ruled on the “scam” itself. There is not even a comment on that, leave alone an indictment. No one is guilty of anything yet. It’s still a political issue, with the jury out on whether the Congress was right in continuing with the policy of administered allocations. Honestly, that’s not even for the SC to judge. That’s a policy matter which Parliamentarians should decide on. And they hav already decided – in a political way! The Kalyan Banerjee (TMC) headed committee has blamed everyone from 1993 onwards, including the BJP when it ruled for six years! TMC being more “left” that the Left itself, the report is not surprising, considering the period of the report overlaps with the period of economic reforms initiated in 1991. The TMC cannot stand reforms!

Even in the 2G case, the SC eventually had to overturn the order of it’s 2-judge bench that all natural resources should only be auctioned. If the government had appealed the cancelation of the 2G licenses, it is possible the SC would have overturned that too, but the government chose not to, maybe inspired by the opportunity to milk the telecom industry and balance its fiscally distraught balance sheet (and we blame the Government for not being hungry for revenues????!). The SC has only argued against lack of transparency in issuance of 2G licenses, and such issues. In the coal case also, it is not for the SC to decide whether administered allocations are better or auctions.

Likewise, it is no business of the CAG to decide whether administered allocations are better or auctions. The CAG is a much discredited agency thanks to its freaky understanding of economics!

It is the CBI that has to investigate cases of corruption. So far, both the BJP and the Congress stand accused in the 11 FIRs filed by the CBI. Makes me wonder what Ashwani Kumar was up to. Was he trying to protect more Congress names from popping up? Was he trying to deflect blame from the PM who ran the coal policy for many years? Or was he trying to get the CBI to include more BJP names in its reports? After all, the 11^th FIR was against a company that got its mines after a recommendation from Raman Singh, the BJP CM of Chhatisgarh. We’ll know the facts soon!

But politically, the coal scam has become a hot potato again. The BJP has seized it as a handy excuse (excuse, since it would have blocked Parliament in any case) to stop legislative work, hurting national interests but helping its political cause. The Congress has again been put on the backfoot and denied the glory that continuously dropping inflation, interest rates and petrol prices could otherwise have shone on it. It’s a cat and mouse game. Someday the BJP gets the upper hand; someday the Congress. But for god’s sake, don’t mistake this to be the denouement of any criminal case. That’s still years away. And the truth is still not out.

The real truth is that the PM must do what he’s promised. Take action after reading the SC’s comments. For now, the AG must go. Maybe next week, depending on what the SC says, the CBI Director and the Law Minister may have to go as well. The PM should worry more about his legislative agenda – and stay focused on that. We the people in the meantime should be careful not to mix issues....