Our police forces are not even equipped to handle terror.....

While the NIA is now entrusted with the job of handling terror threats, it is always going to be up to the local police to smell out the threats that may be lurking all around. But what is the status of the various police departments in the country? Pathetic to say the least.

Take the example of the Mumbai Police. Once touted as one of the best in the world, it is today in a state of total decay. Let’s look at what all ails this force which is supposed to provide security to the financial capital of the country....(now its not my intention to compare NY police with Mumbai police.....I am doing this because many of my friends keep referring to the US in their handling of terror...):

1)      The total number of police personnel in Mumbai is some 41000. They are supposed to look after the security and well being of some 20 million people. That comes to some 200 police people per lac of population. In contrast, NY has some 45000 police personnel who take care of just about 80 lac people. And even New Delhi has some 55000 people for a smaller population that Mumbai’s. And let’s not forget.....our people need more policing.....if the cops are not there, our people are far more ok to break rules than people in the US.

2)      A bulk of these police personnel are in the traffic department. Given our traffic conditions, and the traffic sense of our people, I doubt if the traffic police has any time or inclination to keep their ears to the ground.

3)      The budget of the Delhi police is about Rs 3000 crores per annum (2009-10 as announced by Pranab Mukherjee in his Union budget – remember, Delhi police comes directly under the Center). This itself, was doubling from the previous year’s budget. I couldn’t find the Mumbai Police budget on the internet, but from what I read, the budget is a max of Rs 2000 crores, but is probably much less than half this number. In contrast, the budget of the NY police department is about $4 billion (Rs 20,000 crores). Now I know that the US is a much more expensive place, so in PPP terms, it’s not that much over, the fact remains that that budget is to take care of a much smaller population.

4)      The quality of people who work in the police department in Mumbai and New York is totally different. Just look at the salaries offered to the Commissioner of Police of Mumbai....the senior-most officer in the city’s police department. His salary (including “grade pay”) is around Rs 50,000 per month. I am sure there will be other “perks” but even then the salary will go to about Rs 1 lac per month max. That’s after some 30 years of “distinguished” service and after being a part of the elite IPS cadre. In contrast, a sales executive in a good private sector company with 5-7 years experience can earn that much in Mumbai. In New York.....the starting salary after the training at the Police Academy is some $45K per annum and this can potentially double in some 5-7 years time (as per their website). See the difference? The NY police pay is comparable (and probably better than) to the pay in the private sector. That’s why it attracts good people. In contrast, the Mumbai police attracts mostly the “bottom of the pyramid” staff. These people are barely literate and hence extremely uncouth. They see a police “vardi” as the passport to undoing all the atrocities that they have themselves been subject to for centuries. They have probably paid to get a posting in Mumbai....so they are entirely happy to get all of it back in whichever way they can. No wonder, the police department is amongst the most corrupt of all government departments. The exception is the IPS officers – who are smart – but honestly, who wants to join even the IPS in today’s consumerist times? A clean police chief of Mumbai cannot afford an LED TV, a vacation abroad, a decent sedan.....why should anyone want to become one, if it wasn’t for the obvious chances to make money on the side and the power that comes along with the job.

5)      There are very strict laws in the US about how many hours a cop is allowed to put into his job. He is given 27 days of paid vacation and unlimited sick leave with full pay. In India in contrast, most cops are overworked.....they may be inefficient and may waste their time when on duty.....but they are not “on leave” officially. Given our pollution conditions, most of them are half choked to death by the fumes. Given our food habits, most of them are overweight.....I am sure most cannot even run after a thief. Given their living conditions, most won’t even be getting a decent night’s sleep.

6)      The Mumbai Police has 1200 jeeps/light vehicles and 1400 motor cycles – it has no helicopters to the best of my knowledge (research did not show it, though Delhi Police does have one helicopter). In contrast, the NY police has 9000 cars and 8 helicopters to aid it in its duties. Do you see the difference here????

The biggest problem that ails the Mumbai Police is of course, the exact same as the one that ails most government services – be it the IAS or any other. The salaries are pathetic and hence no good person wants to join the government. Some of my friends argue that these people get more than what 90% of our countrymen get.....but that’s not the way it works. These salaries simply cannot attract good people. And in spite of such pathetic salaries, as much as 85% of the department’s budget goes behind salaries (certainly the case with Mumbai Police). No wonder they have nothing left for “capital expenditure”. My research shows that Mumbai Police spent Rs 45 crores on capital expenditure 2009-10 of which Rs 35 crores was on “machinery”. I guess, this must be traffic lights and the like. No wonder, we see this terrible state of disrepair in the so called “best” police department in the country.

Then there is this other huge problem which I touched upon yesterday. Internal security is a state subject. And since different states are ruled by different political parties, it proves very difficult to get all of them to talk to each other. The police department is deeply entrenched into the political system – and political interference is a well known fact. While our anger today is directed at the central government, the fact is that it can do absolutely nothing except “cajoling” the state departments to upgrade. It is for the state government to provide the funds. The problem with this is that the poorer states obviously have a much smaller budget....and these are the ones that have the biggest crime problem. Just look at the Naxal problem. It’s a problem attributable to poor economic growth in the first place.....and ironically, for the exact same reason, the police department has no funds to fight them.

Is there a case for centralizing the internal security apparatus? Should it be a central subject rather than a state subject? The politics here is clear. State governments use the police force for serving their own agenda. The police is often made to target opposition leaders and condone the handiwork of the leaders of the ruling party. Just look at what happened in Godhra. The police department was told by the Gujarat CM to “look the other way” (now I know this is not proven.....but there is a strong suspicion of this). As one who has lived in Ahmedabad for over 20 years, I know this to be a distinct possibility. Was the Gujarat police able to find who killed Haren Pandya, the former Gujarat minister? If the states were to surrender their powers to the center, how would they be able to do all this?

Look at the controversies surrounding the NIA itself. The NIA has the mandate to enter any state’s jurisdiction if it’s a matter related to terrorism. The NIA is investigating the Samjhauta Express blasts in which some 65 people died....most of them Pakistanis. The NIA found that there were Hindu extremist elements involved.....but this was enough for the BJP and the Sangh Parivar to launch a motivated campaign against the NIA. With such parochial mindsets, I doubt if we can actually beef up our security apparatus......

As expected, the TV channels last night were full of celebrities of all nature and hue who got their time to rant about the state of affairs in our country. I liked Shobha De’s interview on CNN IBN the most. When Rajdeep pressed her for solutions, she said “I don’t have solutions” and went on again after the politicians! Advani spoke of this not being an intelligence failure, but a “policy failure”.....so I guess he was being introspective since policies are a state government’s prerogative and his party rules at least 7-8 states in the country! And Kiran Bedi was fantastic too! When asked for solutions, she pulled out a 2006 newspaper clip which had also lambasted the state of affairs then and went into a political monologue demanding “what has been done???”....hello, isn’t she an ex-cop who could possibly give solutions? And exactly what locus Anupam Kher has to comment on everything from terrorism to corruption is something I have never figured out! That’s the state of affairs in India at the moment – everyone wants to crib....but no one has any solutions.

The real truth is that we have to become less critical and more solution providers. That’s when we can have a meaningful national debate. I listed some solutions yesterday. There must be many more. But first and foremost, let’s resolve to change the basic problems (like salaries, investments, budgets, political interference) that prevent good people from joining the police. Unless we do that, we should not expect much from these people.....

The blasts will happen again – So how should we respond???

After all the anger and feelings of deja vu have died down, a few truths will emerge. First, and most ghastly though it is, the truth is that these blasts will happen again. And again. They will happen all around. In Delhi and Pune and in every major business and power center of India. It’s far easier to plant one bomb than it is to intercept all the terrorists. Second, this is not a political issue, but it will almost certainly become one. I can imagine the BJP salivating and the news channels dying to earn their TRPs back from the GECs and the Sports channels. Third – and I believe the most important truth – is that the country has to respond smartly. For starters, it has to strengthen the NIA – National Investigative Agency – with more funds, more officers, more intelligence, more technology, more partnerships globally.....this last truth is the only one that will give us relief over a longer period of time. The first two are useless factoids of today’s disturbed world.

The NIA was set up after the 2008 Bombay blasts. The reason to have a “federal” outfit like the NIA is that Law & Order is generally a state subject under the Indian Constitution. As a result, different states have different police forces; hardly any of them have any access to good technology; hardly do they talk to each other; and hardly do they occupy the kind of high position they should in a society which is besieged by terrorism. Most cops at the state level are happy to take their “hafta” from hapless citizens for minor violations of traffic etc.....none of them is motivated enough to take a determined stand against terrorism. That’s why the NIA was set up to look into all acts of terror that the country faced. The NIA has been modeled on the FBI in the US or the MI5 in the UK. Its mandate is limited to acts of terror against the country – either physical attacks like we saw yesterday – or the more devious kinds – fake currency, drugs, etc.

It’s clear that India lives in a troubled neighborhood. We are surrounded by countries which are hotbeds of terrorism. Pakistan obviously is the global headquarters of terrorism. The unsolved Kashmir problem is like honey for the terrorists from Pakistan. Till the time the Kashmir problem is solved, it is unlikely that the terrorist attacks against India will stop. But Kashmir is a huge issue. It’s an emotive issue for both Pakistan and India. Neither side has visionary leaders who can find a middle ground that will eliminate the problem. Neither country is ready for a middle ground. Both want to keep the entire cake for themselves. Neither wants to realize that the cake has got spoilt (in a manner of speaking) and is harming both of them. But such is the world of conflicts. It takes decades....sometimes centuries....to resolve outstanding issues. It’s been 64 years since the Kashmir conflict started......Till the Kashmir problem is solved – and let’s be ready that it won’t be solved for another 60 years – we need to prepare ourselves to face the attacks that emerge as a byproduct of the issue. The LeT, the IM, the HuM and the several others Pakistan and India based terror outfits are bound to thrive. No matter what we do, we cannot kill them completely. The “junoon” that exists amongst their members is bound to create many more soldiers from amongst the dead. We cannot solve the terror problem.....we can only mitigate it.

It’s no different anywhere else in the world. The Christian world’s fight with the Muslims goes back centuries. Theirs is a much more ideological fight not related to one or two geographies or incidents. Their fight in many ways goes back to the birth of both religions.......to the time of Isaac and Ishmael – both sons of Abraham (but with different mothers). Theirs is a much more difficult, much longer lasting struggle. And no Christian country is safe for the next several centuries. Worse, with every occupation that the US does of the Arabic lands, the resolve of the Muslims to battle the Christians only grows. The Western nations however are far better prepared to handle the fallout of this battle. They have set up strong intelligence units; they co-ordinate their actions; and they have prepared their institutions (hospitals, police forces, emergency services) and their people to face challenges when they come.

We need to do the following:

1)      Recognize that terror attacks will continue for a long long period of time. There is no need to agonize about them. Or to give sermons and lectures in the media.

2)      Strengthen the NIA. Give it all the money that it needs. Tie-up global relationships. Give it the best resources. Give it a clear mandate to fight terrorism and nothing else.

3)      Simultaneously upgrade the police forces in each state. This is a thought which needs more discussion – should internal security be made a central subject? We’ve seen the need for this in our fight against the Naxalites also. We’ve see how each and every state government responds differently to the same problems – making it a highly inefficient style. It’s definitely worth a discussion.

4)      Prepare our institutions to be attack-ready. Procedures need to be defined when terror strikes. Why should injured people file an FIR before being treated at hospitals? Why should hospitals not have the capacity to admit the injured? Why should our administration not know how to communicate with our people? Why should our transport system break down? Why should we be confused about whose responsibility it is to take over?

5)      Most importantly, prepare our people to be ready for war. What should they keep their eye on? Today, we look for unidentified suitcases.....but terrorists have gone far ahead. Do we need to be trained in schools and colleges to spot signs of terror? I think so.

6)      And lastly, let’s behave responsibly as a nation. Let politicians not squabble. Let the media not report irresponsibly. The papers today have stuck to reporting the incident....by tomorrow, I can bet they will be full of politics. Let’s please understand that the situation will be no different if a different party rules India. It’s not about politics. The attack is on the concept called India.

The real truth is that in spite of all the feelings of gloom today, I think we can fight terrorism. We have the resilience to stand united and fight. What we want now is a strong leadership. And an even stronger determination. Let’s not get demoralized.....

Media disappointment over cabinet reshuffle unjustified.....In government, there is more need for the Dravids than the Tendulkars....

Media is quite clearly disappointed with the cabinet reshuffle. Quite clearly, it’s case of media itself raising expectations to extremely high levels and then feeling disappointed.  Really what did the media expect? That Pranab Mukherjee would be replaced with a younger Renuka Chaudhury? That Chidambaram would yield to a greenhorn like Sachin Pilot? Media tends to over-emphasize youth, individual excellence, apolitical background.....but fails to understand that the cabinet is not the Indian cricket team where all this is perfect. Government is a much more serious affair that requires maturity, team play and sensitivity to politics.....

Let’s be clear about one thing. The cabinet is made up of politicians. It needs to be made up of politicians. I have often accused the Congress of having downplayed its politicians in favor of the “young dudes” as it were.....the likes of Jairam Ramesh, Kapil Sibal, Nandan Nilekani (though not a minister) etc. What we cannot forget (though we would like to) is that the cabinet functions only when it enjoys the support of the ruling party and the ruling party of the entire Parliament. Politics is paramount in the choice of cabinet members and other members of the Executive. So while it’s great to have apolitical leaders, there has to be a nice balance with political ones. Likewise, age is a crucial factor in politics. The meaning of “young” in politics is vastly different from what it means to us in our real life. At 60, a political leader is considered young! Also, its fashionable to downplay the importance of experience in running a political job. With age comes maturity.....a key requirement in a Parliamentary form of government. Even the corporate world recognizes that.....a recent story in The Economic Times indicated that the 50+s are now being favored as CEOs (thank god for that!). Seniors tend to be less “firebrand” and that’s great in politics....especially when there is a coalition government in place. And finally this media fetish for “individual excellence”. We like the Jairam Ramesh’s as ministers – after all, he is an IIT/MIT engineer – and he’s performed brilliantly as the Environment minister (more on him later). But in government, while individual brilliance is great to have, it necessarily has to be balanced with more of “team play”. I remember my former boss (thanks Mr. Parigi!) used to say: In a team, we need more Rahul Dravids (stable, low profile, team player) than Sachin Tendulkars (individual brilliance)! No one likes this truth, but it is still the truth!

So let’s remove these three criticisms of media and then decide what the cabinet reshuffle means:

Jairam Ramesh: He’s done an outstanding job in the environment ministry, though he didn’t do the one thing that I would use to measure the ministry: Why hasn’t he allowed sea-side eateries/entertainment zones etc in our metros? Anywhere in the world, the best, most premium, “night life” spots are along the shore....somehow our environment ministry believes that this will harm the environment. That sea-fronts should be reserved for ugly looking mangroves, littered with plastic bags and worse. On a more serious note, he did well in bringing the ministry to the fore. On the flip side, I don’t think an environment minister should ever be referred to as “Dr. No”. Having the power to say “No” puts a huge responsibility on the incumbent. But that’s what happens with these young, brash, IIT-educated, “individually brilliant” ministers....they don’t understand government....and they rub everyone the wrong way with their inflated self-opinions. In a way, Jayanthi Natarajan is better than Jairam Ramesh. She’s less brilliant, but is a team-player (and a politician who understands Parliament much better). What I am really excited about is Jairam Ramesh in the rural ministry. This is the one ministry that requires huge amounts of individual brilliance and a raising of its profile. Imagine if he could make the NREGA more efficient.....the impact on the rural unemployed poor would be tremendous. Imagine if he could implement the Food Security Act really well. Imagine, if he could repair the Public Distribution System even a wee bit. From “Dr. No’, he has to chance now to become “Dr. Do” and that’s why I am so excited!

No change to top 3 positions: Media may not like this, but “stability” amongst the top leaders is a great virtue in governance. Whenever a senior Presidential aide leaves in the US, it is considered a set-back for the President. Why should it be any different here in India? I think that Pranab Mukherjee and Chidambaram have done an outstanding job in their ministries. They are both efficient in their work, mature (remember how they handled the “bugging of FM’s office” issue?) and are astute politicians. Chidambaram has brought a lot of seriousness to the internal security apparatus even though “Home” is a subject handled primarily by the state governments. In a federal polity, the central Home Minister has to be savvy in dealing with different parties at the state level. Pranab Mukherjee has done an outstanding job in handling the economic slow-down (financial stimulus) while still balancing it with the opposite objective of lowering the fiscal deficit. Sure, the inflation has been an area of concern, but that’s largely attributable to external factors. I am also OK with Antony continuing as Defense Minister, even though I would prefer a more action-oriented one. The government’s preference for Antony is obvious – he is squeaky clean. And in spite of all the provocation, the defense is not the priority of the country at the moment.

Unhappy about SM Krishna being retained: I have written earlier that SM Krishna should have been replaced by Shashi Tharoor. SM Krishna is clearly out of his depths in dealing with the new opportunities India has today. We have the chance of a lifetime of becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council, a chance to contribute enormously to the world economy (G20), a chance to shape the worldwide consensus on environment, a chance to shape global trade treaties (GATT), the job of protecting India’s security environment in the face of a troublesome Pakistan and an aggressive China, the responsibility of finding new partners like Japan, the US and Israel.....all of this requires a fresh mindset, a bundle of energy, an ability to network internationally, to speak “their” language.....and I think Shashi Tharoor (if he tweeted a little less!) would have been a better choice.

Salman Khursheed: I think he is the kind of ministers one wants to see more of. He is suave, young, political minded and extremely important given that he comes from UP. He is a solid team player and I think a modern thinker too. The Law Ministry is him home turf and he is bound to do well here.

Frankly, the rest of the changes don’t matter that much. I am happy with the continuance of Kapil Sibal in Telecom and HRD (he has to write the new Telecom policy and clear various copyright issues in HRD) and with Anand Sharma in Commerce (Exports have been booming). The TOI, in a rare appreciation of the Congress, has said good things about KC Deo (Tribal Affairs), Palam Singh Ghatower (Dev of North East), Rajiv Shukla (Parliamentary Affairs), Charan Das Mahant (agriculture), Milind Deora (Commerce), Beni Prasad Verma (Steel) and Jitendra Singh (Home).

What I also like is that some of the devils have been shown the door. MS Gill (CWG related), Murli Deora (he was indicted in the CAG’s report on favoring Reliance), Maran (obviously!)......I believe that Arun Yadav and A Sai Pratap were non-performers and hence their dropping is a good sign.

What I am disappointed with truly is the continuance with Sharad Pawar (the wily fox who knows he is indispensable!) and Vilasrao Deshmukh (a minister who inspires absolutely zero confidence). But such is the nature of Parliamentary democracy.....politics trumps performance!

The real truth is that media’s criticism of the reshuffle is too harsh. If we remove our bias towards the young, the apolitical and individual brilliance, this reshuffle is as good as could be expected. The “saare ghar ke badal dalo” approach simply doesn’t work in real life. But have you noticed how casually we take in our stride today that slowly.....but surely.....governance is becoming a serious, responsible, and accountable business? Imagine this – in the past, ministers were always chosen for political reasons; never for their competency. And ministers were never dropped for non-performance. India is changing and this is good for everybody!

Should India amend its adultery law? Should adultery be considered a crime at all?

This story is triggered by a news article in TOI Bombay which reported the Bombay HC as confirming that adultery is still a criminal offence under Section 497 of the Indian Penal Code. The HC considers that the law per se is not against the Constitution and hence it cannot annul the law. It’s for our law makers to decide whether the law needs to be changed. Now I know that adultery is a terrible scar in married life.....but the question here is whether it should be treated as a criminal offence. In fact, should be treated as a crime at all? And also importantly, isn’t the law sexist and anti-women by its very design and hence shouldn’t it be modified or deleted?

I did some research to validate certain beliefs that I have on this subject. In my view, there is no way that adultery can be considered a crime. These laws of adultery were framed at a time when society was still a lot more puritanical. In the 18^th century, it was probably understandable why this law was first enacted. But to think that the law still has validity is wrong. While even the basic concept of adultery itself is unacceptable, the implications of this law on a woman’s right to equality and independence are huge. Let me explain this. Adultery is defined as the sexual relations of a married woman with any other man. The other man may or may not be married himself. In adultery, it is the “other man” who is punished. Depending on which country you live in, the punishment could be five years in prison (India) or as high as death (most muslim countries). It must be noted that the woman is not punished. Nor is she held guilty. That’s why men across the world complain that the law is gender-discriminatory.

But what irks women’s organizations around the world (including the National Commission of Women in India) is that the woman is treated as the “property” of her husband......and hence the “other man” has conceptually “stolen” the husband’s property. The woman herself is not expected to have any views of her own in this matter. It’s really an issue that involves the husband and the other man. Further, the woman herself is considered to be “a thing” that can be owned by someone (the husband). In fact, in India, the wording of the law makes the matter even more pathetic. The Indian law defines adultery as sex between a man and a woman without the permission of the husband. What????!

It is not surprising that most civilized countries in the world (read: Europe) has stopped calling adultery a crime. In fact, there was an uproar in the EU when Turkey was considering (in 2004) re-making adultery a criminal offence.....under pressure from the Islamic elements in its society. The EU made it a pre-condition for talks for including Turkey in the EU that Turkey abandons all such plans. In the US however.....and let’s not forget that large parts of the US still remain puritanical......there are about two dozen states where adultery has not yet been decriminalized, though adultery charges are hardly ever filed. In some states like Maryland, adultery elicits a penalty of $10! In the US military, adultery is an acceptable ground for a court martial. In some states like Michigan, adultery can get an accused person a life sentence. Interestingly, the modern states of NY and California do not consider adultery to be a crime. Adultery is largely considered a crime in the Islamic world where ancient religious and social mores still dictate and dominate laws. In some Islamic countries.....like Jordan.....the husband is pardoned even if he kills the other man if he finds him have sex with his wife. In Saudi Arabia, even “stoning to death” is permitted for adultery. We have seen many similar cases in neighboring Pakistan where a wave of Talibanization is sweeping the country. Apart from the Islamic world, I found it’s only in North and South Korea and Taiwan that adultery is considered a crime. Even China.....usually very orthodox in its laws.....has decriminalized adultery.

Given its wide prevalence in society, should adultery not be abolished around the world? In the western world, reports vary on the prevalence of adultery. Some reports suggest that as much as one third of the population engages in adultery. It’s interesting that in all studies, the % of men committing adultery is always found higher than the % of women. What does this mean? That once a woman commits adultery, she become a “serial” committer of adultery?! Hmmm.....now that’s surely bound to raise the hackles of women!

I think its time India took a more modern view of itself. As one of the fastest growing countries in the world, it is incumbent upon India to modernize its age-old laws to keep them in line with modern and progressive thoughts. India needs to align with Europe, rather than with the Islamic countries when it comes to social mores and laws that govern them. But really, is the population if India liberal enough for this? I doubt it. The Sangh Parivar – the moral policemen of this country – are bound to oppose any move to delete this adultery provision. We have seen repeatedly that extremist Hindus (and of course the extremist Muslims as well) in India have repeatedly tried to keep India back in the dark ages. It’s very unlikely that they will support the deletion of adultery as a crime at all.

That’s why I often say that public opinion cannot be the basis for making laws in a modern country like ours. Let’s say if 75% of the population supports adultery laws, does it mean that we must “listen” to our people and let the laws stay? Or should our leaders go against the will of the people and decriminalize it? Knowing the fear that politicians have of doing anything that seemingly goes against the views of their people, I doubt if they will ever act on their own. The only way societal value systems can change is if media takes up the cause. Media can explain....media can silently cajole....media can help people embrace liberal views. This is an extremely important role that media plays in any country. Once media builds enough favorable public opinion, politicians can propose a more liberal law. Is media in India ready to play this role? It has in the past....but suddenly, I am not so sure about the future.

The real truth is that India is yet not ready to become a truly modern nation. There is a huge dichotomy within India. There is this very large orthodox population that still considers old fashioned laws a requirement to maintain the morality in the society. Large sections that dread and intensely dislike the changes overcoming society as a result of India’s global embrace. They would like India to remain puritanical.....misunderstanding and intentionally misrepresenting the traditions to the people at large.....that Indian “culture” doesn’t permit liberal thoughts. But I think society is changing. And changing fast. I think there is a sizeable section of the society that wants India to get out of its dark past and move ahead into the world of more liberal nations.....it’s probably not a majority today, but its only a matter of time before it becomes one......

Why be surprised with yesterday’s railway accident.....more are bound to happen

I have written twice about the mess in the Indian Railways. My first piece was titled “Privatize the Railways” (Jan 12^th, 2011) and was triggered by continuing problems of service quality and safety in the railways while the airlines sector (especially the low cost airlines) was booming and taking market share away from the railways. The second piece was titled “Indian Railways budget: Looks like a comedy show but is really the biggest scam” (Feb 26^th) and was triggered by the pathetic annual ritual of the presentation of the Railways budget every 25^th of February. This piece is a continuation of the same thought and is triggered by the accident that killed 30 hapless people yesterday.

I cannot understand why there is so much anguish in the press about this accident. Why does it even merit front page coverage? What is so newsworthy of this accident that it triggers off yet another debate, yet another crib session against the Railways....and yet another piece of my blog?! Let it be said here quite clearly: There will be more accidents in the future and they will recur with a regularity that we only get to see in nature. All this crap about the Railways being a role model of socialism and being the real protectors of the poor is hogwash. The truth is that the Railways is a death trap and it’s just a matter of luck (or bad luck) who gets trapped in it.

What more can we expect when the Railways operates with an Operating Ratio of 91%. This means that the costs of operating the railways are 91% of the revenues. That leaves only 9% for everything else. What takes a haircut? Obviously, investments. With investments only to the tune of about Rs 1000 crores or so per annum, there is hardly any possibility of improvement in the existing infrastructure. In reality, what the Railways needs is a total overhaul. Demolish the existing. Create anew.

Just look at China for some inspiration. Their progress in technology development in the Railway sector there has now prompted Japan to file a Copyrights suit against the Chinese.....in retort; the Chinese claim that their technology is vastly superior to Japanese technology. Their trains routinely run at speeds in excess of 300 km per hour while our trains start to jump their tracks at 100. They are now exporting rail technology around the world......and hold your breath.....they have proposed to build a railway line from London to Beijing which will cover 8000 kms in just 2 days. This is no fantasy. This is an actual proposal made last year by the Chinese to the British government. This is not the only offer the Chinese have made to foreign governments. There are at least 17 other governments in talks with the Chinese to build rail lines that crisscross all of Asia and Europe. And look at investments in their domestic sector. The Chinese are investing close to 700 billion dollars to build a state of the art railway sector. The world’s fastest train – the Harmony Express – has a top speed of 400 km per hour and covers the 1000 km distance from Wuhan to Guangzhou in just 3 hours flat. It’s not surprising then that the number of accidents in China is far lower than in India. A quick look at the data readily available on the internet shows that between 2000 and 2009, there were 705 deaths due to accidents in India (not including terrorist attacks like the Samjhauta blast etc). The same number in China was 15 deaths. We had accidents in 9 out of these 10 years; the Chinese in only 3.

What’s the way out? I have often complained with our tendency to“mix issues”. This is easily seen in the case of the Railways. The Railways are mixing two issues: socialism (job creation, upliftment of society etc) and operating a train service. These two simply cannot be mixed. If the Railways have to run a professional railway service, they have to be run professionally. There is no way they can employ 14 lac employees and spend 42% of the costs of operation on salaries. On the other hand, Jet Airways has a wage bill of only 11% of its operating costs (I can only use data from the airline space since there is no other railway company in India). In contrast, the venerable Tata Group (also often considered to have several “government like” features in their jobs).....has a turnover of more than Rs 1.5 lac crores and employs only 1.8 lac people. If the Railways did not have so many employees on its rolls, it could afford to spend more on safety, maintenance, laying new and better tracks and doing some R&D of its own.

The other urgent solution to consider is to privatize the Railways. Now I don’t mean that the Railways must be sold off to the private sector, but what I do mean is that the Railways must rent out its infrastructure or private players to start their own train services. Just like what happened in the airline space. In the initial phase of privatization of airlines, the Airport Authority of India (a GOI enterprise) offered its infrastructure to private airline operators to operate services. In the same way, the Railways could offer its existing railway lines, the signaling infrastructure, the platforms.....etc to private players to start private train services. The private operators would be able of offer higher quality services by charging more monies (something the government is loathed to do). The Railways in turn would earn “rental” income and could use this to build infrastructure. And they could continue operating cheaper and lower quality services for the larger population. At some time in the future, even basic railway infrastructure could be privatized.

But eventually, the Railways have to understand that the times have changed. They need to themselves provide better services to the people. The people in this country are usually misunderstood. I don’t think they have a problem in paying more prices for the tickets....provided they could be given tangibly better services. Just look at the highways. In the last ten years, the quality of our highways has improved significantly, and almost all these roads are toll roads now.....but there have been no protests from the people.

The real truth is that all this shock that we express in our papers on train deaths is a sham. We do the necessary bashing up of the Railways every now and then and hope that will improve things. The reality is different. The solution needed is different. And no one talks of that. A few days from now, even this accident will be forgotten. Only to be remembered the next time it happens again.....that’s what is shocking.

A political revolution brewing in UP.....politics of “unity” rather than politics of “divide and rule” taking center stage.

The cynics may dismiss Rahul Gandhi’s focus on UP as being opportunistic. The Congress badly needs to win a big state if it has to strengthen its position in the center and what better state to capture than UP. It also needs to balance the effects of almost certainly losing AP in the next elections. Again, UP can provide – and more than make good – the requisite protection against an AP debacle. UP can make or break a party’s chances at the center. No wonder, all eyes are glued on Rahul Gandhi’s tours of this most important state in India’s politics.

Almost all PMs have come after fighting their elections in UP. Starting from Nehru to Lal Bahadur Shastri to Charan Singh to Indira Gandhi to Rajiv Gandhi to VP Singh to Chandra Shekhar to Vajpayee.....you simply cannot over-emphasize the importance of UP. With 82 seats in Parliament, UP carries with it the power to shape the country’s governance and politics. With its massive population, and proximity to Delhi, its voice is heard loud and clear. With parts of the state (Noida, Ghaziabad) just a stone’s throw from Parliament – and considered part of the larger NCR – there is no way that UP can be ignored. Winning UP is the formula for winning the country. Winning UP is the formula for overcoming the problems of coalition politics....

The problem is that over the last twenty years, anyone who could have has abused UP in extreme ways. Just look at the role that the major political parties have played in UP. Every single political party has done what the British did best – divide and rule. The Samajwadi Party divided the state on the basis of caste (Yadavs) and religion (Muslims). The Bahujan Samaj Party did it on the basis of caste (dalits and now surprisingly, Brahmins) and the BJP did it on the basis of religion (Hinduism). Every single political party took the state back a hundred years every time it came to power. Today, though UP is full of talented and entrepreneurial people, it doesn’t feature in the pantheon of top performers in the state on any count. Its best known for its violence, rapes, murders, poverty, illiteracy, old fashioned muslim extremism, assembly violence, gun-running, university frauds, ultimate corruption etc. Very little stands out in UP that one can showcase to the world – except of course the Taj Mahal – which also the politicians would have destroyed if they had been allowed to.

It’s in this light that I look at Rahul Gandhi’s forays into UP as being extremely signficant. And let’s be clear – he’s creating a massive impact. The proof of that: Media coverage of his yatras into the interiors of UP are incessant. Some of the coverage may be cynical.....but the fact is that media has sensed the importance of covering these visits. Whether he sleeps at an Adivasi home or eats food with them, Rahul makes his presence amply felt. Let’s give it to him – he is young and charismatic. And he is an astute politician to the core. I think the Congress has been dominated by too many economists and lawyers and intellectuals and hardly has any mass leaders left in its party. Clearly, Rahul is filling that space in the party.

What should the Congress do to steal the thunder from the divide-and-rule parties? It’s really very simple. The Congress stands for economic growth. During its last 20 years, India has seen the most economic growth happen in the country. In this period of time, per capita GDP has risen from some $350 to some $1500. And it’s not as if the poor have been left out. As Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar pointed out in one of his articles recently, actual farm wages have doubled in many states across the country. Even in the poor states, the wage hikes have been more than 60%. Even assuming that half of this is taken away by inflation (actually inflation for the poor is less – because of various government subsidies).....there is still a lot of real economic prosperity. Whether it is the NREGA, or the now proposed Right to Food Security Act, the Congress has stood for economic growth......and to some extent......inclusive growth. The word “aam aadmi” irks the opposition a lot.....which itself is an indication that it has some currency in the minds of the people.

Apart from stepping on the economic growth front, the Congress must act as the uniting force in this fragmented state. It’s positioning should be one that smothers divisions of caste and religion. Its appeal should be crafted in such a way that all sections of the state look up to it. That’s why Rahul’s focus on farmers is so relevant. Farmers come from all sections of society – from all religions and from all castes. The issues that farmers face are common. Land grab, minimum support prices, usurious interest rates, subsidies, poverty – are common amongst all farmers. By farmers here, I am obviously referring to small and marginal farmers. The big farmers have already ruled the politics so far. By appealing to the small farmers, and not targeting religion or caste, Rahul Gandhi can unite the state.

If the Congress can win the UP, it will do the country a lot of good. I am a big supporter of only national parties being allowed to rule the central government. I think the BJP should rule Bihar – the other massive state from a political standpoint. They have done a good job there and they have a right to represent that state in Parliament. But the likes of SP and BSP have to be contained within their own state boundaries at best. They represent divisive and parochial politics. They couldn’t care if their demands hurt the fortunes of other states. Their objectives are clear – secure and preserve their positions even if the country suffers in the process. A Congress win in UP and a BJP win in Bihar will give the country stable politics. The two parties are ideologically different (representing plurality of views) and present in several parts of the country (hence are unlikely to act parochially). From this limited perspective, even the Left has a role to play at the national level. But beyond these three, no one else should be allowed to rule Delhi. The regional parties may of course, choose to join any of these three national groupings.....but they shouldn’t be allowed to rule by themselves.....or act as king makers at the national level.

The real truth is that it is Rahul Gandhi who is making the news in UP. Of course, Mayawati is....but for all the wrong reasons. And when is the last time we heard from Mulayam Singh Yadav? Or for that matter, what news did Uma Bharati make after she took over the BJP’s reins in UP? Almost none. In fact, I have a feeling that Uma Bharati will take BJP down in UP. The times for divisive politics is over.....at least in UP. The time for inclusive and uniting politics is here.....let’s see who understands this and grabs the opportunity.

BJP and Prashant Bhushan mount united charge on Kapil Sibal....

If ever there was proof required that the so called “civil society” was working in cahoots with the BJP, it is there for everyone to see now. As soon as Prashant Bhushan filed a PIL against Kapil Sibal’s decision on fixing the tariff for Reliance Communications, the BJP spokespeople jumped on to criticizing the Congress. No other political party has even had the time to study the PIL – leave alone criticize Kapil Sibal – but the BJP has been at the forefront already. It appears they had an idea of what the PIL stated even before it was filed.

This reminds me of “The Almighty”, a book written by Irwing Wallace, which talks about the scion of a media moghul who has to inherit his father’s media business. But the father is a tough taskmaster. He’s set a condition for his son to fulfill before he can inherit his father’s business. For one day.....just one day.....he has to make his New York newspaper (which is usually the #2 newspaper in NY) the number 1 newspaper in the city. This obviously proves to be a damn difficult target to achieve. So, the son hits upon the strategy of “making news”.....plots to have the Pope killed.....at a time of the night when no other newspaper (except his) can print the information in the morning papers.....and goes on to satisfy the condition. While the story relates to the powers of media and the scams within, the story that is being played out in India is more devious. The main opposition party is “making the news”, “using the civil society” and “stealing the thunder”. Its partner in crime here is obviously civil society. Together, they are plotting strategies to bring the ruling coalition down.....

The main opposition party is being smart. By signing up civil society onto its side, it has tapped into the goodwill that this “institution” enjoys in the minds of common people. In a climate where government bashing is welcomed openly, whatever is said by this august group is taken as the gospel truth. And then, every now and then, the “spin” that is given by media is used to accentuate the implications of the strategy.

Take the recent PIL filed by Prashant Bhushan against Kapil Sibal. The allegation is that Reliance Comm should have been fined Rs 650 crores whereas Kapil Sibal used his “discretionary” powers to reduce that fine to Rs 5 crores or so. One would expect in a PIL to be served some form of “evidence” to back the allegation. Apparently, the proof provided is wafer thin. It’s a charge....that has very little substance to back it.

Forget the substance. The intention of this PIL appears not to be to “win”; but to cause damage to Kapil Sibal and the government. It’s a political move. At a time when Kapil Sibal has taken a hard line against civil society’s draft of the Lokpal Bill, what better way to push him back that to accuse him personally of wrong doing? A defensive minister would be bound to tone down his stand. Since the court will take months, if not years, to settle the PIL, the battle in real earnest will be fought in media. That’s where instant hearings are conducted and verdicts pronounced almost every single day. Kapil Sibal has no chance at all. In the media, and in the reader’s minds, he’s already been pronounced guilty. No matter what he will offer as explanation, it will all be discounted by the cynical people of the country. That’s the real intention of the PIL. Not to come to the truth, but to politically slay an opponent.

Kapil Sibal has given some explanation, which the press has reported. But like I mentioned the truth hardly matters to a country ceased as it is in political whodunits like never seen before. Apparently, the figure of Rs 650 crores is just someone’s imagination. The fee suggested by the appropriate authority was some Rs 13 crores, but since RComm had corrected the wrongs, the penalty was to be calculated using a different provision. That number was Rs 5 crores. So apparently, there was no misuse of discretionary powers.

Frankly, how this qualifies to be a PIL is difficult to understand. Simply because it is a decision taken by a minister? By that logic, all decisions taken by the minister should be challenged in the form of PILs. Because PILs are being misused, even the SC is getting upset with them. There is already a plan to modify the terms under wich PILs can be filed. In the past, some courts have even penalized those who have filed frivolous PILs and wasted the court’s time. In this case, it is clear that this is a political battle between the BJP and the Congress and Prashant Bhushan is merely a go-between for the BJP to exploit. There is no way that this complaint can be called a PIL at all.

Prashant Bhushan is taking advantage of the credibility and reputation that Anna Hazare enjoys in public minds today. Like Ramdev tried to do. Ramdev proved to be a joker and was thrown off the center stage (quite literally!). It’s a question of time before Prashant Bhushan enjoys the same fate. Given the charge against Anna himself that he is a BJP stooge (he has never criticized the BJP in the last so many months as if it were devoid of corruption....never criticized Karnataka.....praised Narendra Modi....its apparent really), Prashant Bhushan’s recent PIL is seen obviously as a political maneuver. This kind of political activity takes the focus away from the fight against corruption. Just like Ramdev weakened the anti-corruption movement, so also are such frivolous political shenanigans of Prashant Bhushan harming the movement.

The real truth is that the country is suffering enormously because of the overdose of politics in our lives. While China marches ahead with big ticket investments, we are stuck in a stage of deep freeze. Every other day, the BJP demand the resignation of some or the other minister. They have been demanding the PM’s resignation for long now. Then they started demanding Chidambaram’s resignation. And now they will demand Kapil Sibal’s resignation. It’s a pure political game plan with no bother on the implications on the country. By using civil society to do its bidding, the BJP is corrupting even this supposedly apolitical concept. It’s time the BJP introspects.....