Cabinet reshuffle must be a game changer.....

After Maran’s exit, a cabinet re-shuffle has assumed renewed importance. In terms of timing, the re-shuffle offers the PM a great chance to make a crucial political statement of intent. He is lucky that the problems the UPA is facing are coming so early in its life.....in the next three years, the UPA can not only lift itself out of the pit it finds itself in, but can also re-capture the imagination of the people. The re-shuffle can be a good starting point.

There are a few ministers who stand out as being the ones who have quite a few things to hide. Those, who could shame the UPA even more going forward. These should be dealt with forthwith. I am listing some of them here....but the PM knows better.

Sharad Pawar tops the list of ministers who shouldn’t be in government at all. It’s an open secret that Sharad Pawar is perhaps the richest (and most corrupt) politician in the country. Most of his wealth is benami. His official declaration of wealth is a joke. In the past, when Sharad Pawar was younger, he was known as a good administrator. As the CM of Maharashtra, he did a lot of good for the state. But that was then. Since then, either his own motivations have changed, or the people of the country have started expecting more.....but today, Sharad Pawar is a liability waiting to be explode. Whatever the political cost, the PM has to ease Sharad Pawar out.......

Then there is SM Krishna. Now, I have nothing to say about his integrity at all. In fact, he’s stayed fairly non-controversial and does bring a lot of dignity to the role. But the reason he must go is because he is too old and we need a younger, more dynamic foreign minister. One who understands the opportunities that are open for India at the moment. The world is changing. The G8 has more or less yielded ground to the G20. Everyone is wooing India. The NSG waiver and the Indo-US nuclear deals were done in spite of India not signing the NPT. India needs to join the UN Security Council as a permanent member and that’s going to take a lot of lobbying. Then there is all of Africa to be won over. Then the struggle for territory and global power against a strong and aggressive China. The permanent battle of wits with Pakistan. I read somewhere that the foreign ministers of big countries like the US (Hillary Clinton) and UK (William Hague) are widely regarded as the #2s in their respective governments. Why is it that SM Krishna is not even in the top five in India? We need a younger, more dynamic minister. Shashi Tharoor should never have left! Maybe its time to bring him back!

Then there’s Vilasrao Deshmukh. In Bombay, it’s a well known fact that he’s nothing but a wily politician to the core. His involvement in Adarsh has come out recently and even without Adarsh, he has much to explain. As a CM of Maharashtra, he did nothing for the state. Even in the central government, he’s doing nothing at all. He has no place in the Union cabinet.

I am sure there are a few others that the PM needs to weed out. But I now want to move onto ministers who must be given a wider role. They have proven to be capable. Many of them are silent workers. Many are aggressive in their styles. But either way, they will add to the heft of the UPA in these trying times.

Pranab Mukherjee needs no further elevation. He’s already the #2 in the cabinet. Chidambaram is also well placed as the Home Minister. It must be mentioned that Chidambaram’s credentials are also suspect, but because he is an extremely capable administrator, I would still continue with him. I would enhance the roles of people like Kamal Nath, CP Joshi, Praful Patel, Kapil Sibal, Ambika Soni, Anand Sharma and Ajay Maken. These are the young turks of the UPA and today is a time for them to take over. Who else should be in the cabinet is for the PM to decide.....we simply don’t have enough information in the public domain about all the MPs. But what is clear is that the chosen ones must have a reputation for integrity and efficiency.

Once the council of ministers is re-shuffled, the government must get back to business. Much of the Lokpal steam is already off. The government must surprise the people of this country by making it a stronger body than what most people expect it to do. Having done that, the government must go back to minding the economy. There are serious headwinds facing the country. Reforms are the way forward. The cabinet finally cleared the FM radio expansion policy yesterday. They need to now move ahead with reforms in insurance, labor laws, DTC, GST, land acquisition; mining.....they need a strong industrial and manufacturing policy. They need to open up multi-brand retail. It’s clear. The way to regain its strength is going to be by building the economy. Not by playing politics. If the people of this country do well economically, they will forgive the government for the charges on corruption. After all, people understand – most of the damage to the UPA has been inflicted by alliance partners, not by the Congress itself. And people do understand the compulsions of politics. They know that if the DMK offers to join the BJP alliance tomorrow, it will be accepted with open arms.

The real truth is that the Congress’s positioning in the minds of people is that of a “dhandha ki party”. Since 1991, it’s only been during the Congress/UPA rule that the economy has done so well (Those who complain about the first forty years should read their history chapters first). When the NDA was ruling between 1999 and 2004, the GDP growth slumped. The NDA is a “Brahminical” party....it relishes politics. It stands for principles derived from Hindu religion; which are totally irrelevant to the people today. To that extent, the BJP still hasn’t realized that it is going in the wrong direction. The Congress should focus on growing the economy and distributing the wealth. That alone will extract it from its current mess.....

Maran indicted.....but rather than bash the UPA, we should focus on electoral reforms....

Nearly everything that was first said about Maran’s role in getting Sivasankaran of Aircel to sell out his telecom business to Maxis has been proven true as per CBI’s statement to the Supreme Court. Clearly, Maran has misused his authority as the telecom minister. This is one of the most reprehensible forms of “dadagiri” that a minister in power can demonstrate. His behavior gives all ministers a bad name, even though not all of them use such tactics. People in India inherently believed this accusation against Maran when it was first made, and now it’s been shown to be true.

But this post is not about whether Maran is guilty or not and whether he should resign on his own or be thrown out by the PM. Maran is but a small fry in the larger debate that is now necessary on our electoral methods. The DMK has brought – twice now – great disrepute to the ruling UPA government. But is the DMK the only party that is up to such tricks? The fact is that there have been many instances in the last twenty years or so (when coalition governments started in India) when small regional parties have carried out similar acts of “dadagiri” against the ruling coalition. At the time when the BJP was ruling, the DMK was a part of the NDA government and had also caused the NDA severe embarrassment. The JD(U)’s leader – George Fernandes – had also caused embarrassment with the “Coffingate” scam and maybe the NDA lost the elections because of all this. It’s not about the Congress or the BJP....it’s about the unethical and almost illegal power that small outfits wield over the larger ones in a coalition set-up.

The point for us to think about is: what options does the Congress or the UPA have today with respect to the DMK. It’s easy for the common person or media to suggest that the PM must sack Maran. If he does that, there is a possibility (even though it’s unlikely today given the situation in the TN assembly) that the DMK may withdraw support to the UPA. Given the fledgling majority the UPA has, the withdrawal of 18 MPs from its side will lead to the government losing its majority. Given the fact that the opposition BJP hardly has the support of enough MPs and parties in Parliament to reach a majority of its own, a fresh round of elections may have to be called. Exactly the same thing happened in 1998 when the NDA government lost its majority when the AIADMK pulled out of the government. Fresh elections were called in 1999 which the NDA won. But even in 1999, the BJP or the NDA did not get a clear majority. They were always under pressure from the smaller parties. The present UPA dilemma is the same as the NDA faced in 1999. That is why, rather than politicizing this issue, it’s important to look for permanent solutions.

There were some reports in the papers yesterday that the Congress is now talking to Laloo Prasad Yadav’s (RJD) which has 4 MPs and Ajit Singh (Rashtriya Lok Dal) which has 5 seats in the Parliament. Imagine this: It’s entirely possible that Laloo may be back in the government. What a shame that would be. Also imagine this: The RLD which won its five seats in an alliance with the BJP would now become a member of the UPA. But what options does the UPA really have at this stage? UPA bashers will say that fresh elections should be called. But even if that were done, is there any possibility at all of any political outfit getting a clean majority? That’s highly unlikely. The NDA is very weak ever since it lost the important state of UP. Its strength today comes from the politically lighter states of Gujarat, MP and Punjab. In Bihar, its partner, the JD (D) is hardly a reliable one.....

That is why there is need for larger debate on electoral reforms. It may sound undemocratic – and indeed it does come with its own risks – but maybe its time to have a law that gives an elected coalition or party a free run for 5 full years. Alliance partners must be forced to stay together till the next elections take place. The principal partner in the ruling alliance must have some protection against the threats of the smaller partners. The principal partner may not have the support – by itself – of the majority of the people of the country, but it may be better for it to rule the country for five full years. The one major advantage of this rule would be that there would be a move towards “consolidation” of political parties. We have too many regional political parties and while their role in state politics is invaluable, their role in national politics needs to be curbed. Or even if it is not curbed, it must come with certain responsibilities.

Maybe its time India moved towards a system when only National parties are allowed to run for the Central government. And maybe the rules that define national parties need to be strengthened. Today, if a state political party has a presence in a mere 4 states, it is called a national party. Even the RJD was considered a national party because it had made some gains in the North East (it was subsequently de-recognized). Likewise, the NCP today is called a national party because of its performance in the North East. Since the time this rule was framed, many more states have got created. Maybe today, the rule should be that the party must be represented in at least 8-10 states. Fortunately, in spite of the rather simple qualification criteria, there are only six national parties – the Congress, the BJP, the NCP, the CPI, the CPI(M) and the BSP. So in reality, there are only four groupings – the Congress and NCP as the 1^st, the CPI and CPI(M) as the 2^nd, the BJP as the 3^rd and the BSP as the 4^th. Maybe if the rules were tightened, the BSP would be eliminated. Maybe we should allow only the BJP, the Congress or the Left to form the central government. State parties could of course join any of these dispensations, but they would not be allowed to leave the coalition for five years.

The real truth is that the BJP has no reason to mock the Congress because of the suffering caused to it by the DMK. It is entirely imaginable that if an NDA government were to be formed in the future, the DMK could again be a part of the NDA. Like it was in the last NDA dispensation between 1999 and 2004. Likewise, the AIADMK should not jump into DMK bashing, because it has a lot of skeletons in its own closet. And media, rather than sensationalizing the story must drive a public debate about the reforms that are required. Sane minds must get together to chart out political reforms. As a nation we must focus less on politics and more on economic activities..... That is the need of the day.

Jobless growth in India? NSSO data shocks all, but only Swaminathan Aiyer shows its not true!

Very rarely do I get absolutely thrilled by reading a story in the papers. I love Aakar Patel’s writings in Mint Lounge on Indian society, I love Tavleen Singh’s write-ups in Indian Express on politics and I love Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar’s articles in TOI on economics. I used to love Vir Sanghvi’s political stories in HT, but he no longer writes there. This post of mine is a straight lift from Aiyar’s article in TOI last Sunday (July 3^rd – Where are all the women workers?). But I have tried to add the political dynamics to his piece on economics!

The basic story came out in the Mint a few days back. The newspaper showcased the story on its front page. It quoted NSSO (National Sample Survey Organization) data which showed that though GDP had grown rapidly between 2005 and 2010; jobs had only grown by 2 million over these five years. Since the population increased far more, unemployment increased during these last five years. The newspaper failed to analyze the data, preferring instead only to put out the raw data. It was a scary piece of data.....because the political repercussions could be that India could be forced to go back to the socialist era. If indeed, India reports jobless growth, then clearly capitalism was the wrong model for it to follow. There are already enough complaints of crony capitalism. Crony capitalism means that only a handful of business families have benefited from the economic boom. There is also the other glaring and scary worry – that the economic disparity between the haves and the have-nots has been widening. If this continued, then India was sure to revert back to its pre-reform pre-1991 days.

Fortunately, Aiyar digs deeper and unveils some new data. His analysis shows that in reality, it is not as if jobs have not increased. Jobs have been created in large numbers. However, there are not enough workers left to take up the jobs. So he calls it “workerless” growth rather than jobless growth. His analysis shows that while male participation in the work force has remained steady at 55% (remaining 45% don’t work....they are either too young, or they are studying or whatever), female participation in the work force has declined from some 30% to some 23%, a decline of 7% over these last five years. Translated into numbers, this means that 35 million women have withdrawn from the work force.....or in other words, are not available to take up jobs.

As a result of this drop in female workers, there is a shortage of work force. And as a result of this, wages have been rising. This is where Aiyar adds so much value. He presents wage data that shows that agriculture worker wages have doubled in just three years from 2008-2010 in AP. Even in the other states, the wage increase in these three years has been between 60-100%. So there is a huge sharing of economic prosperity that is happening across the country. The fruits of economic growth are reaching the poorest of the poor. Even after taking inflation out (30% in three years), workers have gained a significant amount of economic growth. I have argued in my previous post (Feb 27^th.....food inflation not hurting the poor) exactly this point. In this post of mine, I specifically mentioned that the rural poor were doing fine.....only the urban poor were facing the brunt of the inflation. This huge growth in salaries amongst the poorest is also a good thing for India because it shows that distribution of wealth is taking place. Higher wages have temporarily caused higher food inflation as well.

So the truth is that wages have increased because workers have not been available. Also, mechanization has increased in farms. Wow. So it’s not the mechanization that has caused “jobless” growth; rather it’s the “workerless” growth that has led to mechanization. I feel very good about this, because this means that India is progressing. With more machines, farm productivity is bound to increase in the long run. This will reduce food inflation in the future. With more salaries, people are bound to put more away for education. And that is what is happening. Education levels are rising. One of the theories that Aiyar propounds to explain the withdrawal of females from the work force is that with higher education, females want better quality of work. I have seen this in my own house. My house maid’s daughter has studied till the 10^th standard. But she doesn’t want to do her mother’s work. She was lucky to get a job as a sales girl in a showroom. Such jobs are not available for all women....and hence women have withdrawn from the work force. The other theory he has is that with higher male salaries, wives are pulling out of the work force. His explanation is that in the Indian mindset, a household in which females don’t work has higher status than one in which females work. Poor females work because they have no choice. But as their incomes rise, the women give up work. In many ways though, this is a bit of bad news.....the “demographic dividend” (surplus of young people available for employment) would get nullified with this tendency of women to opt out.

Now the politics! The Left jumped onto this data and said that they had always opposed these reforms! If only they had waited to read Aiyar’s analysis.....now they will have to eat their words. If only they read the report better and changed their economic theories, they would have any hopes to coming back to power anywhere in the country. The BJP jumped into the fray because the NSSO data said that the NDA regime between 1998 and 2004 had generated more jobs. The BJP gloated about their highway program which led to a lot of jobs being created. Wrong! Now they have backed off from commenting on the report! The fact is that the BJP also supports capitalism....except that in their present zeal to show the UPA in poor light, they often tend to lose their moorings!

The real truth is that India should continue to focus on strong economic growth.....and that’s what the poor in this country are looking for. Nothing should stop our economic progress. Certainly not the misguided battle of civil society against corruption as if that was the only malaise that India faced. Sure, corruption needs to be removed, but in the process, economic progress cannot be stopped. That’s what is happening now. With the government in a tizzy, decision making has stopped. Policy initiatives abandoned. This will harm the country. Instead, Anna should do what I have said before. Declare Jan 1^st, 2015 as the date from which we will move towards zero corruption. In the interim, the factors which lead to corruption – archaic laws, electoral weaknesses, poor salaries of MPs and civil servants, too much discretion in the hands of civil servants etc – will be cleaned up. There is no point in cribbing about something that has been part of our DNA for the last so many centuries. The better solution would be to focus on the future and make sure that that is better than the past.....

The SC setting up an SIT to investigate Black Money is a farce.....

It’s a dangerous decision that the SC has taken to set up an SIT to keep an eye on the investigations of the black money issue. In my opinion, the SC has no business to step into the area of governance. It has enough questions on its own plate to answer. Questions about corruption and erratic decision making of the lower courts need to be first addressed by the SC. The principle of “those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones at others” needs to apply to the SC also. Further, a question needs to be raised if SC monitored investigations yield any results at all. Or is it just another act of sensationalism performed by an irresponsible judiciary?

Let’s look at the SC monitored probe of the alleged 2G scam. After the SC has taken over the probe itself, the CBI has been working under its directions and reporting progress to it. Many people in the political establishment and the corporate sector have been arrested. Bail has been denied to all of them. But what has the investigation done by CBI yielded so far? Only one alleged link between DB Realty and the DMK. Even the size of that alleged corruption is of the order of only Rs 200 crores (Remember, the initial charge was that the scam was of the order of Rs 1.76 lac crores). Even in this case, the SC has not been able to start hearings and come to a verdict. And this, after several months of having taken charge. What has the SC been able to achieve by taking over the investigation, except perhaps, shoring up its own declining image? By denying bail to people who are not even charged, what kind of judicial justice is the SC dispensing? Why has Sanjay Chandra of Unitech been arrested? For merely a conjecture that Unitech paid bribes to get its telecom license? If this were true, why has nothing been traced back to him yet? And if nothing can be proven, how can the SC still keep him behind bars? For those who may not be aware, the only charge against Unitech is that it “sold off” a stake in their telecom company to Telenor for a few thousand crores. The people of this country may not understand this.....but the truth is that selling off a stake is different from pocketing the proceeds. In this case, the proceeds have all gone inside the company. The monies will be invested in rolling out the network and running the company. It is entirely possible that the company may make losses for the first ten years (Vodafone just reported its first profits after being in the country for 15 years). In any case, the company has a huge disadvantage vis-a-vis the incumbent companies for coming in so late. In that case, the valuation of the company will dip. Unitech and Telenor will not make profits, but losses on this investment. This is what happens to a vast majority of all companies that are set up....they end up in losses. Even if the people don’t understand this, surely the SC does? Who is going to question the SC on so many of its inexplicable excesses?

Every person who understands the subject of black money understands that it’s a complicated problem. Firstly, it is not only India’s problem. It’s a global problem. The US and most major economies of Western Europe are battling the same problem. Which is why, at a G20 meeting a year or so back, the countries agreed to apply pressure on Switzerland and the several other tax havens around the world. The SC can do pressure nothing by stepping in into this domain. No where in the world has a judicial body stepped in to check black money. The other mistaken notion that lay people have is that this money is all lying abroad. The fact is that global money is fungible. It finds its way to the fastest growing countries where returns are higher. It is safe to assume that the black money is already back in India – through a process called round tripping – basically, using places like Mauritius with whom India has a double tax avoidance treaty. So it’s not as if the black money will dramatically change India’s economic growth. Then again, much of the black money is generated in India and never leaves its shores. Black money is any money that has been siphoned off without the payment of due taxes. Since everyone in India avoids taxes to the extent possible (yes...even people like us), everyone is a hoarder of black money. One of the largest sectors of black money in India is considered to be the Real Estate sector, where a lot of cash transactions take place. Most of us believe that the builder just collects the cash and hoards it all. In reality, the builder is passing on much of that cash to its vendors....it’s a cycle and the money can eventually be found in our own hands and definitely invested in our economy. The truth is that we the people of India are corrupt and the black money is in our hands....no where else. Sure, some may have more, and others less. But to find black money, let’s just look inside our own homes.

The SC is wont to making political statements. They love to criticize the legislature and the executive over matters that don’t concern it. At the same time, it is unwilling to correct its own behavior. Everyone knows about corruption in the lower judiciary (and maybe in higher judiciary as well), but the judiciary has done precious nothing to cleanse itself of these charges. Why? Why can’t the SC first set up an SIT to probe corruption charges against itself? Why can’t the SC castigate lower courts for wrong verdicts they pronounce? All of these end up eventually in the HCs and the SC....clogging the judicial system. Why doesn’t the SC do “training” of the judges in its lower courts. Or “tick off” judges whose verdicts the SC finds wrong? Why doesn’t the SC find ways of speeding up its own working? After all, shouldn’t one practice before preaching?

The SC’s decision to set up the SIT is a purely political decision. There is no constitutional crisis that has forced the SC’s hands in this matter. What do we expect next? That the SC will oversee the industrial policy? Maybe, the FDI policy? Why not the monetary policy of the RBI? Maybe the working of the defense forces? After all, the SC hardly hesitates in deciding whether it has a role in the matter at all. The SC works under the protective cloak that the Constitution has provided it. No one can challenge the SC’s orders. It is apparently considered contempt of court if its decisions are questioned. It’s a super authority in itself. In many ways.....I don’t support the Lokpal being made a super authority because of the experience we have had with the judiciary. The judiciary just proves the saying that absolute power corrupts absolutely.

The real truth is that India is at serious risk of losing its democratic flavor. Every important democratic institution is being damaged and destroyed.......often in a competitive race for power and control. Just look at it. Our Legislature, our Executive, our Judiciary and our Media.....are all vital institutions for a vibrant democracy, but each one of them is chasing an extremely self-serving and destructive agenda. The judiciary wants to usurp power from the Legislature and the Executive. The Media has severe internal competition to face and doesn’t mind cutting corners in its reporting and being irresponsible in the chase for TRPs. Both the judiciary and media have a special place.....a certain automatic credibility.....in the minds of common people. By nature, they are in the business of keeping a check on government. Both of these are abusing the trust of people. We, the common people, believe that Legislature and Executive are corrupt and support such decisions of the SC.....but we often fail to realize how absolutely destructive this can be.....

All want a “strong” Lokpal bill.....but no party willing to spell out its stand

The all-party meeting to discuss the Lokpal bill provided few surprises. The parties stuck to their stands.....or rather continued to refuse to spell out their stand. The BJP continued its devious politics of trying to take the high moral ground but not bothering to express its views openly. Laloo continued to play the joker. CPM was the only party to spell out its stand clearly. In short, the meeting helped in achieving nothing.....except proving that this is not a UPA-civil society battle but a larger political parties-civil society one.

There are three points that I want to make here:

First, that the BJP continues to behave irresponsibly. Its behavior is out of line with what is expected of the main opposition party in a democracy. It took the most strident line on corruption in media. Its spokespeople appeared fully conversant with the issues when they came into the TV studios. They put out political rhetoric by the tons when questioned by media on the party’s views. But when formally asked by Pranab Mukherjee to spell out their views, the party suddenly claimed that it had no idea what the government was proposing....so it couldn’t respond. Why couldn’t the party just give its views suo-motu? When the PM called the all-party meeting to discuss the government’s version of the bill, the party initially was opposed to attending the meeting......saying instead that they would give their views to the Parliament when the bill was introduced. After all, the party claimed, this was only the “minister’s draft” and not the “government’s”. Why did it have to resort to such technicalities, if not for political reasons? And finally, when they did decide to attend the meeting, they still refused to give their views on anything substantive. They will now give their views to the Standing Committee of Parliament which will review the draft bill after it is introduced in the Lok Sabha. Well....the BJP should know.....they can delay the inevitable, but they will eventually have to publicly give their views. Till they do so, they continue to lose favor with the people. Most people I speak to – even BJP sympathizers – complain that their party is starting to appear fake on this issue.

Second, the issue is not a UPA-civil society one. It’s about all political parties wanting to protect their turf. And why not? Everyone does it. The judiciary has kept quiet all throughout on whether it should be included or not....but has let loose former CJIs to do their talking. On other matters, the SC is keen to make its views known even when no one seeks their views. Obviously, they don’t want to be included under the Lokpal. Most political parties also don’t want the judiciary to be included.....goes on to show how much the weight of the judiciary is going to count if the bill does get passed by Parliament. It is not difficult to imagine that the SC may throw out the law as being against the Constitution. If everything else fails, the SC can be counted on to deliver the blow. I doubt if Anna’s team would like to run the risk of protesting against the judiciary. No wonder no one wants the judiciary included (I also don’t want it included.....but for a different reason). On including the PM, the views are divided. The CPM is clearly in favor of including the PM. Surprisingly, the DMK is in favor – now that’s a joke considering that it was they alone who have wreaked havoc on the UPA. Their view is not related to any understanding they have of the bill, but a compulsion to take a stand adversarial to what the Congress is saying. After all, they hold the Congress responsible for the plight of Kanimozhi and others. The BJP has as usual played an opportunistic role. It’s muttered some mumbo jumbo on the PM’s inclusion in all affairs except national security, foreign relations and the like. Maybe it’s coming from its experience of Vajpayee facing many charges of corruption himself.....like the one related to the coffin scam and others. Surely, that would be passed off as relating to national security?! On including the judiciary, it’s kept quiet. After all, a party made up of so many lawyers must be feeling the pressure.....surely it owes it to the judiciary to protect its back side at this point in time.

Third, while the media and lay people may feel that the political class is out to protect its turf, the truth is that Anna’s bill is flawed. What it seeks for itself should not be granted. Already, most segments of the media are commenting on some of these provisions. The unrestricted powers that the Lokpal seeks cannot be allowed. The Lokpal itself is bound to become corrupt – after all, there will be many thousands who will work in the Lokpal institution. The issues that lead to corruption in the first place will also plague the employees of the Lokpal. If the Lokpal, as proposed, is the law unto itself, then a corrupt Lokpal is the equivalent of a Saddam Hussein. India can live with infirm laws on corruption; it cannot live with a dictatorial set up in its democratic polity. It has been my considered view that while the PM must be included, there must be a filtering committee comprising many different classes of people who must weed out motivated and arbitrary complaints. The judiciary must be excluded so that the Lokpal’s powers can be checked. And yes, the selection committee must be made up largely of politicians.....after all, in a democracy, I would rather see a strong political set-up rather than one that is weak. In today’s surcharged times, people do not realize the problems the country would face if the political establishment was weakened.....but the truth remains the truth.

I am keen to see what stand Anna’s team will now take. Will they openly challenge all the politicians? Including the BJP to which they all belong either directly or indirectly and whose game they are playing out? Will Anna still go on a fast on August 16^th and challenge the entire Parliamentary system? Or will the BJP whisper to Anna to desist until the monsoon session has ended? My own view is that the tide is already against team Anna. If Anna goes on a hunger strike, he won’t find the support he did a few months back. If he doesn’t go on strike, he would appear to have chickened out. The screws are tightening on him.

The real truth is that the Lokpal bill has already run into rough weather. There will be so many changes proposed to the Standing committee that the bill will look totally different from what it now looks like. And all political parties will stand exposed. And everyone will try and put the blame on everyone else. Frankly, I don’t care too much about the finer points of the bill. The bill’s already in pretty decent shape. Just get the bill passed in its current form....and move on. There are many other pressing items facing the country.  Economic reforms is the first on that list. Not moving on those will hurt the government and the country more than not bringing out a stronger Lokpal bill than the one in discussion.....

See how the Europeans make tourists like us subsidize their local population.....

We all want to holiday in Europe. That’s a truth no one can deny. The Europeans themselves know it better than anyone else. After all, so much of their economic activity – measured both in terms of contribution to GDP and employment – depends on international tourism. It’s no surprise then to see how the European savvy for business has made sure that tourists pay through their nose when they visit Europe. It’s not that the cost of living is too high for all people in Europe....it’s mostly so for tourists! A few instances will prove how the costs are designed in such a way that tourists subsidize the local population.

Take the first thing that irks all Indians (and I am sure all tourists) when they visit Europe. Drinking water. In London or Barcelona, the ordinary half-liter bottle of water costs about 1 euro or 1 pound. That’s 70 rupees. A 1 liter bottle would cost a little more....say 1.25 Euros or so. That’s about Rs 85. But at the same time, I noticed that an 8 liter jerry can of water costs only 1.5 Euros. That’s about Rs 100 and a lot more reasonable. Now obviously, tourists cannot lug an 8 liter jerry can around and so make do with the usual 1 liter one. In contrast, most tap water in Europe is drinkable and local citizens use tap water for drinking purposes. While they pay for the water that comes home, that rate is much much lower.

Take beverages. A normal can of Coke or Pepsi or any other soft drink costs about 1 euro or 1 pound at the neighborhood retail outlet. That’s the place that tourists go to. In contrast, locals go to a supermarket and buy 2 liter bottles for around the same price. Ditto with beer in London. Friend of mine (thx Shirty!) told me that department stores are now selling a crate of beer (24 bottles) for the same price as the local pub sells one single pint! Tourists almost never buy a crate....locals do.

Take eating out. Now almost anyone who has lived in Europe will tell you that food is actually quite cheap. A family of 3 people can manage in less than 500 euros a month. Contrast this with what tourists pay at normal eateries. A minimum of 10 euros per person per meal. If this was to be extrapolated for a month (assuming 3 meals a day), that comes to nearly 2700 euros a month. See the difference? Again, while locals do eat out a fair bit, its tourists who bear the burden of high costs when they visit Europe.

Take transport costs. The entire transport system of London is designed to fleece the tourist. A tourist usually uses the standard “black cab” that one can hail on the street. Now admittedly, the London cab is the best in the world. The driver is extremely polite and cheerful (and unlike in NY, he is a local Brit) and best of all, he is extremely knowledgeable. One just needs to give him an address and relax....the driver will know the place! But for this, he makes you pay through the nose. For a normal 2-3 km ride (15 mins), you pay between 10-15 pounds – that’s about Rs 1000. In contrast, a savvy local would hire a radio cab which would charge around 20-25 pounds an hour or more. And in spite of the congestion tax and the like, and the high prices of petrol these days, the local who uses his own car gets it even cheaper. It’s the same with the London bus or the tube. Tourists buy tickets costing a minimum of 4 pounds a trip (even if its just one stop away)....while locals have the Oyster card and the cost is exactly half. Again, tourists pay to support the locals.

Take the usual tourist spots. Now frankly, many of them are highly overrated. I read on the net that the US in 2007 had about 2462 “National Historic Landmarks” recognized by the US government (source: Wikipedia). Err....did I just say “historic”??? History in the US??? Or is it just plan business savvy???! Europe of course is far richer in history and a visit to any site is prohibitively expensive. Each entry costs between 15-20 euros or pounds and honestly, while some like the main museums and palaces are truly remarkable and worth paying for, many are just a rip-off. Again, the way the tourist packages are designed, tourists end up paying for a lot of these spots....Locals obviously never visit these places!

So in many ways, it’s us tourists who pay for the lifestyle of the Europeans. Even the lowest paid worker in Europe gets 20-25 thousand Euros or pounds annually (Rs 15-20 lacs) and we, the tourists, are made to pay for that. The question is: why do we continue to pay so much if we feel it is a loot? After all, we can holiday in Hong Kong or Singapore and the costs will be far cheaper than going to Europe. Ahh....that’s where the rub is. Europe has built the capaability to price itself higher. The “pricing power” is with them. They have developed the tourist infrastructure in such a way that moving around and visiting various tourist places is easy and convenient to do. They have developed entire streets and markets where tourists can shop. They have developed “sit-outs” on the streets and the sea-fronts where we can eat and drink and see the locals make merry (wonder why Jairam Ramesh’s ministry never allows us to exploit our sea front for setting up restaurants and pubs). They have kept their environment spic and span....by shifting low-end manufacturing to China and India. Why.....they don’t even need to produce more power since they don’t have much manufacturing left.....and so there is no pollution emerging from that sphere also. And finally of course, the “culture” of Europe....I enjoy just spending time in the midst of Europeans, trying to be like them for a few days a year! After all the honking and shouting and pushing and grabbing and spitting and much worse, Europe offers us a life of the exact opposite nature. And they charge for it!

What Europe and the US have done with consumer products (read: brands) and industrial products (read: technologies), they have repeated with services like tourism. They give us a certain quality and make us pay for it. The high pricing makes sure that they corner away a bulk of the tourism revenues globally.

And when it comes to exploiting the far richer history of India, we fail miserably. I once visited the Red Fort in Delhi (about 10 years back.....don’t know what the scene now is). The entrance ticket was Rs 2 and that too only for “adults”. As a result, a whole lot of local louts would enter the site everyday and create problems with their loud and uncouth behavior. The facilities inside were atrocious. The loos were obviously stinking. Even the Fort itself was in a shambles. The ceilings had murals which needed to be fixed urgently, but they had no funds. There was urgent need for air conditioning which would make the experience more enjoyable. But because we have this mixed up notion of socialism (every one in the country should be able to see the country’s history), we hesitate to ask people to pay. We find it acceptable that such a priceless historic monument as the Red Fort is shown so shoddily to the world, but we find it unacceptable to charge a much more logical fare....say Rs 50 or so.

The real truth is that it is the ability to charge high prices that determines what share of worldwide revenues we take away. But in order to price high, we must have the savvy to make our offering tempting and “compulsive” for tourists to pay. A foreign tourist would easily pay Rs 1000 for a visit to the Taj Mahal....but he/she expects a much more sanitized environment. If we don’t do that, we are not making our offering compuslive....so we cant charge what we should. It’s the same the Europeans and Americans have done with brands and technologies. We pay Rs 25 (am I terribly wrong here.....I haven’t bought one in 17 years!) for a Pampers diaper because the damned thing is so well designed! And we pay $ 1 billion for an American fighter aircraft because their technology is so damned good. Can we reverse the tables here and charge in the same manner at least for our world-class tourist spots?????

Imagine if Dominique Strauss Kahn had been freed after rape charges in India.....

DSK was freed yesterday after the prosecution said it had serious problems with the case (as reported in The Times of India). There was a major credibility problem that prosecution had with the hotel housekeeper. She had apparently lied in her application for asylum when she scrambled from Guinea. She admitted she had lied about having been gang raped in Guinea. She also admitted that she had misrepresented her income to qualify for housing and had shown a friend’s child as her own to earn some tax concessions. Prosecution didn’t oppose DSK’s release. And the man was free. Just imagine if this entire show had played out in India.

Indian media would have first concluded (and then figured out why) that the government had a role in freeing up this powerful man! That the CBI (or the Delhi state police which works under the Central home ministry) had intentionally messed up the investigation so that he could be freed. Times Now would have put up a panel of women (who would no doubt have views that agreed with the channel’s) who would have torn apart the government and asked for the Home Minister’s resignation. CNN IBN would have chosen the music on their show to bring out the intrigue more powerfully – after all how often is a senior economist/politician/presidential candidate of a major nation in the dock in this manner – the opportunity simply could not be missed! NDTV would have thought very hard about who should anchor the show.....Sonia so that she can bash up the Congress government or Prannoy himself for his sympathetic views towards it. Or maybe Barkha for her ability to scream at every woman’s issue maybe. The channel may have waited for a few days to put out their show, but then, they have never claimed they are “first with the news”! Suhel Seth would have checked who was paying him for going on TV and what his brief was before choosing the channel. Swapan Dasgupta would have chosen which specific variation of breathlessness (a trick he learnt from a certain Shankar Mahadevan of Bollywood fame) he should use for this particular cause. One where he would appear like he was croaking to death with incredulity or one which was reserved for issues with political overtones!

The Left parties would have screamed that the US and France had arm twisted India into releasing him. After all, they have always maintained that India hardly has any foreign policy worth its name and everyone from the US to the UK and Germany and France have nominees on the foreign department’s advisory committee. The BJP would have demanded the PM’s resignation – why stop only at the Home Minister’s for such a lovely opportunity – for not speaking up on this serious issue. And thus allowing a crime to be perpetrated. In fact, the PM should have resigned simply because the act happened on Indian soil....after all, the PM has to resign some time, right??? Jayalalitha would have called Ram Gopal Verma saying this was a better story to make into a film rather than the Maria Susairaj one and that she had experience of acting and she even looked similar visually to the hotel housekeeper. And she would no doubt recommend a certain ND Tiwari to play the role of DSK in the film – after all his colorful past would be a prime asset in this casting! Astha channel would have played special shows on the Ramayana and Mahabharat suggesting meditation to older people who still have an active libido!

Anna Hazare would have stuck to his fast against corruption. He’s presently only looking into financial corruption – that too of the type that afflicts only politicians in the UPA government – he has no time for corruption of the mind. Of course, there is Baba Ramdev who’s flying into Delhi and in his meetings with whoever comes to meet him at the airport.....he wants to check whether he should sign DSK up as a brand ambassador for his libido-enhancing yoga asanas or should he go on a hunger strike against him. He’s a little unsure about where he stands on this subject....a little like he was about whether the PM should be included under the Lokpal or not. He’s also not sure what he should seek permission for at the Ramlila grounds this time.....should he just do what he did on the black money crusade.....call it a yoga shivir or something else????!

But on a serious note, Indian society would have got cut up like never before. Most people would have felt that politics had been played. That our justice system is archaic. Many would have said that DSK should have been chemically castrated. Most would have castigated (and that word does not mean the same thing as castrated!) the CBI or the police for its inefficiency. No body would have thought that maybe....just maybe....the man was being framed. That the housekeeper was indeed an opportunist. They would have dug into his past and found that he had a celebrated and fashionable wife and they would have concluded that “this type” of people had “such kinks”. In all cases, our responses would have been immature. And dripping with sensationalism.

The real truth is that as a society and as a nation, we believe in conspiracies. Something is always wrong. Someone is always up to some tricks. Also, we are socialists at heart. We believe that the rich always get away. They can influence the system and manipulate it to their advantage. This is a legacy of the past when every white skinned person was equated with atrocities hurled on us poor Indians. Whatever the reason, we are simply unwilling to consider that the rich may also be victims at times. Such are we, the people of India!